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kingmax
12 Jul 12 20:16
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Date Joined: 29 Dec 09
| Topic/replies: 16,832 | Blogger: kingmax's blog
with the weather this bad, you cant look past the draw...

Eng 2.68
SA 4.0
Draw2.56

might lay england as my opening pre match bet..???

discuss guys....

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By:
nigelpm1
When: 13 Jul 12 00:02
Agreed, though I'll probably lay the draw.  Thursday looks like a washout:

http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/vauxhall,_london/long.html

Other days no too bad.
By:
nigelpm1
When: 13 Jul 12 00:02
err.. sorry, back the draw!
By:
Lix
When: 13 Jul 12 12:03
Oval a bit of a result venue of late. If we get 400 overs in I'm sure we'll see a result. Be interesting to see if they pick Finn ahead of Bresnan. You could argue Finn is the hottest quick bowler in the world right now...

But Bres is a lucky charm and does great work with the older ball. Ravi should bat at 6 and bowl a few overs. He's looked in good form with the ball too. Saffers heads a bit spooked by boucher going home. I think we could batter this saf mob this year if the weather holds. Last time they toured they were the better team. We had a number of passengers in our team then.. Vaighan was simply GONE AT THE GAME, Freddie battling to be fit, Ambrose as keeper (batting at 6! Cry ) and even Darren Pattinson got a game...CryCryCry

Despite this we still traded heavy odds on in 3 of the 4 tests!  No passengers in this eng side now. Cool
By:
Lix
When: 13 Jul 12 12:14
Would also expect a great batting pitch from what we've seen so far this year. Both ODIs vs Aus and WI were won with england chasing 250 and 240 very easily. Could have got 300+ if we'd needed to imo. The side pitches used by Surrey in the T20s been very different tho. Plenty of spin but i dont think we'll be using them.
By:
mafeking
When: 13 Jul 12 13:31
saffers bound to be a bit rusty. good that we're not playing at lords where the undercooked visitors have sometimes got away with a draw despite being totally outplayed.

although mark boucher wasn't the same player he was years ago still gotta affect them badly. surely gonna affect AB's batting and someone useless like duminy or rudolph will get a game now.

england have 2 clear areas of superiority - swann and the lower order batting. can see the saffers being 5 out all out quite a few times
By:
scliffor
When: 13 Jul 12 19:46
Can't complain about Strauss or Pietersen's form going into the test
By:
lanza
When: 13 Jul 12 20:46
fancy betting steyn for top bowler but prices seem alittle skinny on here.
By:
Max and Paddy
When: 13 Jul 12 21:19
nigelpm1 13 Jul 12 00:02
Thursday looks like a washout


I've got a ticket for Thursday Cry
By:
d13phe
When: 16 Jul 12 11:54
England look pretty short to me considering the forecast

toss could be pretty important
By:
Lix
When: 16 Jul 12 12:01
we've had all the rain already this year. sun is DUE.

gonna be a scorcher next week. Cool
By:
d13phe
When: 16 Jul 12 12:02
Its forecast thunderstorms for Thursday Cry
By:
Lix
When: 16 Jul 12 12:33
yup, then blazing hot all wknd. Grin
By:
d13phe
When: 16 Jul 12 13:10
its has been so miserable recently Lix that i will believe when i see it
By:
Lix
When: 16 Jul 12 13:28
you're probably right.. Sad

Friday and Sat look lovely at the mo tho. expecting plenty of cricket. Looking for a big fat draw lay at some point.
By:
DirkDiggler
When: 16 Jul 12 14:17
Why would anyone lay England at the moment?

At home, best team in the World, bang on form in all forms of the game, very deep squad, almost everyone bang in form individually, only the weather prevents monney being made backing the home nation in this series IMO.

SA are good of course, but ENG hold all the cards here.
By:
Lix
When: 16 Jul 12 14:27
yup. I cant remember a better england side than this in better form. SA have had about 4 days prep for this. Think we could well batter them. The price for 3-0 is a bit skinny tho Sad 16/1 top price (less on BF ffs!)
By:
mafeking
When: 16 Jul 12 14:31
hard to disagree with that assessment. the saffer batting line up is full of holes. petersen, rudolph and duminy weak links and de villiers bound to be affected by taking the gloves and then there's the respective tails which could be worth anything up to 100 runs per match difference
By:
d13phe
When: 16 Jul 12 15:05
England wont hold all the cards if they get put in bat on a gloomy day against Steyn, Philander and Morkel

I would expect the pitch curators to take all grass off these wickets but the weather may hamper that preparation.
By:
Sudoku_Junior
When: 16 Jul 12 15:14
Agree D13,but i cant see past england here. Played some brilliant stuff of late.
By:
mafeking
When: 16 Jul 12 15:19
that's the trouble with the shocking weather at the moment and only a 3 match series. could be decided by losing a bad toss in bowler friendly conditions
By:
Lix
When: 16 Jul 12 15:22
Saffers been bowling in some gloom vs Kent and couldnt knock over a couple of 18 yr olds... GrinShockedSilly
By:
d13phe
When: 16 Jul 12 15:28
i never take notice of those pre series friendlies Lix

I do like the look of Bell-Drummond though
By:
Sudoku_Junior
When: 16 Jul 12 16:26
Layed South Africa.
By:
Injera
When: 16 Jul 12 17:36
There are so few decent pace attacks around that our batsmen may be in for a surprise facing Steyn & co.

Remains to be seen though if they're in form. Philander should be the most prepared of the SA attack.

Either team could take advantage of helpful bowling conditions, skittle the oppo and hang on for a 1-0.
By:
Diavolo0
When: 16 Jul 12 18:40
Draw lay for me late thursday if no play. Hoping for an uder prepared pitch and let the seamers from both sides cause havoc.

Anyone doing an under / over comp?
By:
Mariner Paul
When: 17 Jul 12 11:24
The draw price will go odds on before the off at this rate.
By:
DirkDiggler
When: 17 Jul 12 15:42
"England wont hold all the cards if they get put in bat on a gloomy day against Steyn, Philander and Morkel"


....And vice versa, I don't see your point.
By:
Lix
When: 17 Jul 12 16:10
^^^ point being the toss could render the series a lottery (bit like when India won a v handy toss at TB in 2007 and skittled eng on a green wkt which then flattened out)

The lottery factor would then mean you wanna be on the team with the longer odds namely saffers.

I think thats what he means anyway.. Happy
By:
Sudoku_Junior
When: 17 Jul 12 19:54
Do people really think that this wicket is going to be terrible on that first day?
By:
mafeking
When: 17 Jul 12 20:53
could be on off sort of day and that doesn't favour the batting side. mind you friday doesn't look much different at the moment
By:
jimmyt
When: 17 Jul 12 21:20
has anyone seen the weather? this could be a 2/3 day Test
By:
nigelpm1
When: 17 Jul 12 21:21
Absolutely smashed the Draw now - weather look appalling - can't see it completing.
By:
Injera
When: 17 Jul 12 21:42
Thursday may see interruptions. Friday looks ok to me. Weekend good.
By:
nigelpm1
When: 17 Jul 12 21:44
Where are you getting that from?

http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/vauxhall,_london/long.html

looks like disruptions for the first three days.  If 4.1mm falls on thursday there will be minimal play.
By:
Injera
When: 17 Jul 12 21:46
Various sites Nigel and tv/radio.
By:
nigelpm1
When: 17 Jul 12 21:51
BBC and weather.com also agree with yr.no
By:
nicky27
When: 17 Jul 12 22:28
the issue with smashing the draw cos of the weather being that, batting aint gonna be easy in the periods were play is possible ...as mentioned previously, the toss will be crucial here , don't think either captain will want to bat first in the gloom
By:
nigelpm1
When: 17 Jul 12 22:36
smashing the draw doesn't mean you necessary hold onto that position throughout the game.  If it trades below 2 you get out at big profit.
By:
mafeking
When: 17 Jul 12 23:22
could easily be similar to the pakistan series 2 years ago. that was played under almost permanently gloomy skies and 2 top class bowling attacks generally ran riot. granted the saffers have a much better batting line up than pakistan but 350 overs could be plenty for a result in this series.
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