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tennistourphysio
04 Jan 10 10:09
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Date Joined: 09 Feb 06
| Topic/replies: 135 | Blogger: tennistourphysio's blog
Genuine question and not placed any bets as yet:

What is wrong with this scenario?

England to lose 3-4 more wickets today scoring 3 an over leaving them 30 or so short of SA by stumps. bat to Lunch tomorrow all out for roughly parrity on Day 3. SA then get 180 for 3 by stumps. Day 4 All out by tea for 350-400. England 65 - 2 by Stumps
Day 5 England chasing/ defending 300-350 will prob bat out the draw?

Obviously a million things could be different but this sounds more plausible than the odds suggest? As long as England still have one batsman in by close of play will the D odds drift that much?

From what I've read - this pitch isn't really that mischievous!

thoughts?
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Report dougydougy. January 4, 2010 10:11 AM GMT
if england are anything other than all out the draw price will be shorter imo
Report im paying my mortgage through January 4, 2010 10:12 AM GMT
if england last the day the draw be much lower
Report dougydougy. January 4, 2010 10:17 AM GMT
but i don't think it will be a draw and i doubt it will get much lower that 3.0
Report dougydougy. January 4, 2010 10:17 AM GMT
than
Report im paying my mortgage through January 4, 2010 10:18 AM GMT
athers said the best days for batting be today and tues so we would def need an england to score 350 and sa to get a decent start
Report Kelly January 4, 2010 11:01 AM GMT
If England last all day at least , the draw will be around 5/1 at stumps . Seems to be pretty hot out there , bowlers may tire in next session , especially the fast ones ( who are most of the SA bowlers ).
Report Lix January 4, 2010 11:11 AM GMT
England to lose 3-4 more wickets today scoring 3 an over leaving them 30 or so short of SA by stumps. bat to Lunch tomorrow all out for roughly parrity on Day 3. SA then get 180 for 3 by stumps. Day 4 All out by tea for 350-400. England 65 - 2 by Stumps
Day 5 England chasing/ defending 300-350 will prob bat out the draw?

Obviously a million things could be different but this sounds more plausible than the odds suggest? As long as England still have one batsman in by close of play will the D odds drift that much?

This doesnt make sense. They wouldn't be at parity by lunch tomo if they are only 30 behind tonight.
Report dougydougy. January 4, 2010 11:20 AM GMT
would be if bell and cook were batting
Report tennistourphysio January 4, 2010 11:27 AM GMT
By parity I meant within 50 or so! this was a very broad play - there are obviously so many variables that anything other than big broad assumptions is pointless. But yes fair point! I'm on at an average of 7.6. Will see where we are by tea I guess.
Report Ekbalco January 4, 2010 12:29 PM GMT
That was a big session for Draw Backers - feel we'll see more action this session.
Report tennistourphysio January 4, 2010 2:18 PM GMT
looks like my prediction could be close if only 1 more wicket tonight with at least another 30 on the board. The draw price is staying high though - is that the new ball factored in?
Report Lix January 4, 2010 2:20 PM GMT
10 wkts falling on day 2 is not good for a draws chances.
Report tennistourphysio January 4, 2010 2:23 PM GMT
Yea I've traded out all green anyway but just curious really - SA and E are 0.00 and the draw has about a fiver on it - i've never understood why some 0.00s are green and some red. I always seem more troubled by the red ones!!
Report MEREDART January 4, 2010 4:25 PM GMT
TENNIS PRO

You were on yesterday, saying you backed the draw at around 3's or so, saying it was high and it would drop!! Have you hell traded out green.

Full of **e pal!!
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