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I win every time!
01 Jan 10 16:12
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Date Joined: 13 Jun 08
| Topic/replies: 846 | Blogger: I win every time!'s blog
Ok, so I know England's record at C T isn't good. And I suspect someone 'knows' that Colly is out of the 3rd test. But come on!! Did people not witness the demolition of SA in the last match?

Obviously SA will try to come back hard at Eng (phanar) but I like momentum betting - has rewarded me well consistently.

4.2? I'm on England pre match. Thank you gentlemen.

BTW - agree that it should be Wright at 7.
Pause Switch to Standard View England 4.2?? You're having a laugh...
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Report Deadly Earnest January 1, 2010 4:37 PM GMT
The market would be wrong to rate Collingwood's appearance or absence as of any great importance to their winning chances imo. He is not a player who wins test matches, not even a regular strong contributor to wins.

You could argue differently about his impact on the chances of a draw occurring quite reasonably based on his record though.
Report I win every time! January 1, 2010 4:38 PM GMT
Deadly - yeah, that's kinda what I'm saying. I just don't understand it. The price move feels like Anderson or Swan are out!!??
Report d13phe January 1, 2010 4:42 PM GMT
the strange thing is that england have gone out to 4.2 because of the draw coming in

can't figure the reasoning for this?
Report Asparagus Man January 1, 2010 4:45 PM GMT
Seems remarkable England should shift from 3.5 to 4.2 on the basis of Colly being 50-50.

Market doesn't seem to rate England at all.

If Eng bat first, and do OK, I can see the draw trading low quickly (again).
Report I win every time! January 1, 2010 4:46 PM GMT
Eng 3.8 at tip off imho. If they don't trade lower than 4.2 at some point during the test I'm a monkey's uncle.

"Ooo ooo, banana!"
Report I win every time! January 1, 2010 4:48 PM GMT
Well two possibilities here. Either someone has found out the pitch will be a 'road' (and we know this is almost ALWAYS unreliable information) or the weather forecast has deteriorated markedly.

Anyone got any info?
Report Captain Wurzel January 1, 2010 7:20 PM GMT
haven't seen much change in weather, looks pretty good through the test. Possible reasons for market favouring SA Steyn and Kallis should be fitter and Ntini should be out. I think SA's problems with Swann could continue here + conditions could suit Anderson and Broad. After the Durban result the price on england looks too big.
Report oitoitoi January 2, 2010 1:51 AM GMT
some shameless ramping on this thread
Report I win every time! January 2, 2010 9:54 AM GMT
oitoitoi - actually not mate. Honest opinion. Welcome to the cricket forum.
Report bigjoe January 2, 2010 12:06 PM GMT
Enggggggerland will settle for draw .... market recognising that ;)

At 1-0 up i expect a cautious approach from england ... they will seek to bat..bat...and at some more ... there will ot be any generous declarations... they will make taking time out of the game a bigger priority then setting up a win ;)

:)
Report I win every time! January 2, 2010 12:37 PM GMT
big Joe - accept what you're saying and you might be right. But, as you know, it's extremely dangerous trying to play for a draw at a 'result venue'. I don't think this match will end in a draw and so, at 4.2, I think Eng are value. Market recognising that as the draw England price has come in slightly. 4.2 is (was) an excellent posi to trade from imho.
Report DarkDagger January 2, 2010 3:06 PM GMT
Surely England have also gone out to 4.2 because it looks certain De Wet will replace Ntini?
Report DarkDagger January 2, 2010 3:07 PM GMT
http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/81?&search=cape%20town&itemsPerPage=10®ion=world

Cape Town weather forecast.
Report d13phe January 2, 2010 3:11 PM GMT
please dont post a bbc weather forecast
Report Captain Wurzel January 2, 2010 3:15 PM GMT
Still doesn't seem to be done and dusted that Ntini will be dropped. Smith and Arthur noncommital.
Report Asparagus Man January 2, 2010 3:19 PM GMT
I wonder if they are still sweating on Steyn's fitness a bit - hence no announcement yet?
Report DarkDagger January 2, 2010 3:21 PM GMT
Okay, thought the 39C figure looked wrong anyway given Cape Town's coastal position...

http://www.weathersa.co.za/Weather.asp?ProdType=5&fpgid=7day68816

That should be better.
Report oitoitoi January 2, 2010 5:38 PM GMT
if they dont drop maky they might as well just give england the trophy.
Report I win every time! January 2, 2010 6:21 PM GMT
Anyone got a pre match pitch report?
Report Kauto_Star January 2, 2010 9:57 PM GMT
3.7 by start of play?
Report Asparagus Man January 3, 2010 7:48 AM GMT
3.1 after winning the toss :0
Report BETSAFE.....ISH January 3, 2010 8:03 AM GMT
great shout on the 4.2 mate, i tip my hat
Report oitoitoi January 3, 2010 12:01 PM GMT
good call man
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