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Mister Fish
21 Dec 09 13:26
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Date Joined: 09 Apr 04
| Topic/replies: 88 | Blogger: Mister Fish's blog
Anyone else seen the weather forecast - looks pretty poor.

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Replies: 145
By:
STEPTOES YARD
When: 21 Dec 09 13:40
Many were saying centurion would be a lake on days 4 and 5 as well

tricky to judge imo
By:
mittheimp
When: 21 Dec 09 13:43
weather forcasts that far ahead anywhere in the world are not know for reliability. Come back and tell us what it says on crimbo day.
By:
Lix
When: 21 Dec 09 13:49
probably showers rather than solid rain. Draw is a lay at Durban early on anyway.
By:
cdog
When: 21 Dec 09 14:01
saying that, the last 3 England tests there have been draws.
By:
monkey nuts
When: 21 Dec 09 14:32
bad light seems to play a part at times, as well as rain
By:
deltaform
When: 21 Dec 09 14:59
not trying to ramp.. the weather might change.. i live in durban and we have had consistent rain for about two months. thank the lord today is sunny and hope it stays like that
By:
Mister Fish
When: 21 Dec 09 16:35
Forecast suggests more rain to come; however, I agree that it's too early to get too excited but it is worth noting that this test might very well be rain and light affected......
By:
Mister Fish
When: 21 Dec 09 16:36
I remember this a a bad light venue as well . . . .
By:
BigMig
When: 21 Dec 09 17:00
Earlier start, less of a problem.
By:
cdog
When: 21 Dec 09 17:38
Goodness is it an 8 a.m start? :0
By:
lbw
When: 21 Dec 09 17:39
yeah half an hour early
this test only
makes boxing day look a bit messy
By:
cdog
When: 21 Dec 09 17:40
A very early rise for 5 days in a row :|
By:
Mister Fish
When: 21 Dec 09 17:46
I think its always an 8am start in Durban so same light issues as in previous years.
By:
STEPTOES YARD
When: 21 Dec 09 17:50
Good. Will mean aussie test will finish and this start straight away
By:
trader pj
When: 21 Dec 09 18:23
this rain ramp has the potential to run and run
By:
Innocent Bystander
When: 21 Dec 09 18:28
or just disappear down the drain......
By:
Lix
When: 21 Dec 09 20:05
Lay Lay Lay!!!!

maybe not just yet though......

Usually plenty early wkts in Durban. Can they still start 1/2 hr earlier to make up lost time ? i.e. 7.30am UK time?
By:
cdog
When: 21 Dec 09 20:22
hope not or it will be an even earlier alarm call :^0
By:
GoBallistic
When: 21 Dec 09 20:37
Mr Fish doing the weather forecast ?

Could be a hurricane on the way
By:
Mister Fish
When: 21 Dec 09 20:48
No relation, but likely to have as much an idea as my name sake on that night back in '87.
By:
Lori
When: 21 Dec 09 21:42
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"No fecking hurricane here"
By:
A treeeemendous machiiine
When: 21 Dec 09 21:56
lolololol
By:
Mister Fish
When: 22 Dec 09 07:20
v good!
By:
richieboy44
When: 22 Dec 09 09:56
Lori :^0
By:
deltaform
When: 22 Dec 09 10:58
update on durban weather. SUNNY and probably hottest day of year. dont see light being a problem. its getting dark here round 7 pm. will let you know if and when the bad weather rolls in.
By:
fatboy
When: 22 Dec 09 11:38
the forecasts ive looked at dont look nowhere near as bad as the last test and how much time was lost in that test,still a bit too far in advance to be sure but the draw is looking pretty low as it is.if kallis and steyn bowl which u would think are pretty likely from reports saffers look at great price.
By:
trader pj
When: 22 Dec 09 14:38
looking at the bbc forecast for the east coast of RSA the draw should be priced @ 1.4 !
By:
cdog
When: 22 Dec 09 14:39
England haven't lost at Durban in a test match since the twenties I discovered earlier today :0
By:
Big Bad Dog
When: 22 Dec 09 15:01
no weather forcasts have much clue until 36-48hours b4....they are just guessing on sea temps wind etc....but so unreliable
By:
bigpoppapump
When: 22 Dec 09 15:20
these are the ones chaps, these are the ones. weather doubts at result venues...
and when as reliable a counter indicator as TPJ pipes up - the man who couldn't have a draw at Centurion [when it was priced at 2.7] you know it's time to get the money down...
By:
TwoTonTed
When: 22 Dec 09 15:22
think you'll find that sea temps off Durban are +/- fractions of a deg C on a weekly basis at this time of year so it aint guesswork. Neither does local wind have much relevance imo (off-shore in the mornings and on-shore afternoons is quite typical). The climate of this part of SA is more influenced by relative humidity and the directional movement of large air masses (cold from the south and hot out of the north in simple terms) which create temperature and pressure gradients. Collisons thereupon cause widespread unsettled weather which can be fuelled by the proximity of the Agulhas and Mozambique Currents travelling south from equatorial waters. So, providing the SA Met peeps have pretty good MSLP data to hand and a half decent modelling systmem, they should be pretty good at saying when and where it will rain. Contrast this with J'Berg weather which has very different controlling factors which make it harder to forecast imo (as proved at Centurion).

Oh, and dont forget that high tide in Durban increases humidity and allegedly aids the swinging ball :)
By:
TwoTonTed
When: 22 Dec 09 15:30
one thing worth monitoring is that Xmas Day is currently forecast to be cloudy with rain, showers Sat, rain Sunday. If they uphold this forecast on the 24th then confidence should be high that they are on the right lines. If it totally changes in the interim, then you know they are just guessers like the rest of us :)
By:
fatboy
When: 22 Dec 09 15:43
most of the weather sites have totally different forecasts for most days for this next test
By:
Innocent Bystander
When: 22 Dec 09 15:56
One site that I trust (and has proved valuable in rain affected odis at durban, and tests at Napier recently), has heavy cloud (and associated precipitation) all over the Xmas period and up to the end of day 3 (beyond that you would really trust). This is based on the GFS forecasts, and the closer we get to Xmas (as TTT says) the more confident you can be in those forecasts

Still - something to do whilst the turkey is settling on Xmas day ;)
By:
TwoTonTed
When: 22 Dec 09 15:59
most of the Internet weather sites dont know their a from their e. The most reliable forecasts always come from National Met Offices (Departments) imo. Government run operations (such as SAWS) have a duty to get it as correct as possible since industries like agriculture are heavily reliant on the accuracy of such information. You should have seen the uproar on their public forum from farmers when they upgraded the site to the present version without a decent rain radar facility :0
By:
Big Bad Dog
When: 22 Dec 09 15:59
people desperate to arb this draw----could be a back faller
By:
TwoTonTed
When: 22 Dec 09 16:01
agree with that IB :)
By:
trader pj
When: 22 Dec 09 16:31
this is the weather site I use and truct:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/
all sorts of blue areas all over the maps of Africa.
By:
johnterry 26
When: 22 Dec 09 16:35
:^0 PJ
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