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16 Dec 09 07:13
Date Joined: 03 Aug 05
| Topic/replies: 3,997 | Blogger: bigjoe's blog
BALANCE AFTER WEEK 1 ..... + £801.99 ... ROI 2005% after commsion

Great start last week, lets see if we build on hat this week :)

Here are my Fab 4 for this weeks South African open:

Hennie Otto 130 £10.00 £1,290.00
Ref: 9684114208 Bet matched:07:38 16-Dec-09

Oskar Henningsson 200 £10.00 £1,990.00
Ref: 9684127309 Bet matched:07:49 16-Dec-09

Dawie Van Der Walt 280 £10.00 £2,790.00
Ref: 9684116803 Bet matched:07:40 16-Dec-09

Ariel Canete 260 £10.00 £2,590.00
Ref: 9684129683 Bet matched:07:51 16-Dec-09

HENNE OTTO @ 130.0 ... i backed him last week and he missed the cut :( .. but he is better then that and i am happy to give him another chance at a bigger price thn last week ;)

OSKAR HENNNGSSON @ 200.0 .. amazing price on a bloke that stormed onto the tour in great style last season and won impressively.. has to be a back at this price .. nuff said :)

DAWIE VAN DER WALT @ 280.0 .. I was impressed with this south african last week, he played solidly for first 3 rounds and was in contention till falling away on last day ... worth backing at this price ;)

ARIEL CANETE @ 260.0 . Another one that impressed me ast week... was on the fringes of the leaderboard throughout....another sold display could see him in the mix :)

My opening book, after commsion is therefore:

OTTO + 1197.00
VAN DER WALT + 2622.00
CANETE + 2432.00
REST -40 :(

This starts very early tomorrow morning so as usual i say, get yer stakes.... and skates on :D

Good Luck :)
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Report michael knight December 16, 2009 7:45 AM GMT
Good luck Joe.
Report DOUBLE THE TROUBLE December 16, 2009 8:59 AM GMT
like your style bigjoe, good writeups m8
Report 1.01 Layer December 16, 2009 9:35 AM GMT
Gutted I missed week 1.
Well done bj and all the pablo backers.

In for week 2, GL all :-)
Report blackcap December 16, 2009 11:44 AM GMT
Gutted missed last week too. In for a few this week, cheers
Report Smalltime Punter December 16, 2009 12:33 PM GMT
Surely if you missed last week then it's madness to go in this week - the chances of two 100/1+ winners in consecutive weeks must be astronomical.

It would be like correctly picking the lottery numbers but not buying a ticket, and then buying a ticket the next week after picking some different numbers. You'll never get it right twice in a row.

The best thing to do is wait for a couple of months while Joe gets all his bad weeks out of the way, and then dive back in in February when he's due. ;)
Report 1.01 Layer December 16, 2009 1:08 PM GMT
I'm frequently amazed how many small-time punters think like that, saying things like "stats don't lie" or "it's just basic probability theory".

That's why they are small-time and bj is BIG Joe.
Report Smalltime Punter December 16, 2009 1:10 PM GMT
Er. It was tongue-in-cheek, 1.01 layer.
Report 1.01 Layer December 16, 2009 1:25 PM GMT
I saw the wink, mate.
It was aimed at the small-time punters, not Smalltime Punter :-)
Report bigjoe December 16, 2009 2:24 PM GMT
henningsson and canete now 20 points higher :( maybe i jumped in too quick.
Report mascherano December 16, 2009 3:02 PM GMT
£10 Ross McGowan 20-1 (win £200.00)
£10 Alejandro Canizares 110-1 (win £1,100.00)
£10 Edoardo Molinari 26-1 (win £260.00)
£10 Thomas Aiken 42-1 (win £420.00)

Bank -80

great tip last week joe. great start in our bet for you. wish you the best of luck.
Report bigjoe December 16, 2009 3:12 PM GMT
cheers mascherano .. but long way to go yet ....good luck with your picks mate :)
Report scarecrow December 16, 2009 3:52 PM GMT
anders hansen 15.0
shane lowry 70.0
my reasonibg behind these picks are that both are great ball strikers and thats what is needed here,i suspect they will get more birdie chances than most round this track,the downside is that both have putted poorly recently when i have seen them,but in this weak field i am happy to take the chance that one or both of them get their putting boots on and win this as unlike most of the field one is a proven winner and the other is more than capable of adding to his win as an amateur last joe.
Report bigjoe December 16, 2009 6:39 PM GMT
like the 70s about shane scarecrow.. but value on anders at 15s .. but good luck :)
Report bigjoe December 16, 2009 6:40 PM GMT
should read NO value on anders :(
Report bigjoe December 16, 2009 6:40 PM GMT
should read NO value on anders :(
Report bigjoe December 16, 2009 6:40 PM GMT
thats twice the no value :)
Report smeagors December 16, 2009 7:24 PM GMT
bj works for the economist and if i'm not mistaken i would hazard a guess that he has perfected his posting stylie on journo's past present and future .. catchy headline then a raft of typing filled out with lots of lord non-such coupled with extreme smiley deployment .. a master of the craft .. no doubt .. ;)
Report smeagors December 16, 2009 7:25 PM GMT
Report johnlocke December 17, 2009 2:46 AM GMT
After last weeks heroics im in for £2 stakes again. Lets hope the winning ways continue :)

I got the following odds:

Hennie Otto 130
Oskar Henningsson 210
Dawie Van Der Walt 240
Ariel Canete 290
Report Troy Lighthouse December 17, 2009 12:48 PM GMT
Cheers Joe. I'm on for £2 each - apart from Van Der Walt - where I'm on for 40p!
Report Max and Paddy December 17, 2009 2:37 PM GMT
The scores on the doors after the first round:





Fair play to joe. Van der Walt is now 20 to back and 28 to lay.

The others aren't doing too well. Canete is level; Henningson is +2; Otto withdrew!
Report mascherano December 17, 2009 2:42 PM GMT
good tip on walt. Otto has w/d
Report bigjoe December 17, 2009 6:47 PM GMT
Scarecrow..i take it back aout anders .. good call... he is fav now :0

UPDATE After round 1.... mixed news :( :)

Otto withdraws :(

Hennigson finished +2 and needs a good round tomorrow just to make the cut :(

Canete got it to -3 , but bad finish sees him finish level par .. not out of it if he cab go low tomorrow :)

Van der walt shoots amazing round of 65 and at -7 is joint 2nd, just one off the lead :0 .. now trading at 26.0 from original 280.0 :0

Call me greedy... call me silly if you prefer... but though i green out now ..i have decided not to :0

27.0 is still too high to lay off imo...i would rather lose my 40 quid liability rather then waste 1k og green to save it :)

Van der walt has advantage of easier early morning conditions tomorrow .. apparently he lves close to this course and has played it loads of times.... so the chances are that he will at least shoot another solid round tomorrow and if he does that he hould be trading close to or in single figures after 2nd round ;)

So i am going to take a chance and not lay too much off .. if he blows it tomorrow and falls away.... so be it :(

I have though layed him for a tiny £2 at 27.0 and used this 2 quid to top up my green on Canete at 400.0 :0 ... 3 rounds to go....he will be back in it if he shoots good round tomorrow :)

Latest bets and updated book therefore:

Dawie Van Der Walt 27 £2.00 £54.00 £52.00
Ref: 9697686696 Bet placed: 19:25 17-Dec-09

Ariel Canete 401.55 £2.00 £801.10
Ref: 9697695539 Bet placed: 19:26 17-Dec-09

Van Der Walt + 2570.7
Canete + 3194.94
Hennigsson + 1862.00
REST -40 :(

I am happy to leave it like that and see how things are after 2nd round :)

Good Luck :)
Report bigjoe December 17, 2009 6:49 PM GMT
obviously should read " though i can green out ..i have decided not to " :)
Report callysboy December 17, 2009 7:07 PM GMT
In this week for 20 a pop again joe great stuff, laid aussies at 1.4 at start u think a should green up o let it run.
Report Jason Bourne December 17, 2009 10:24 PM GMT
Hmm ...
Report callysboy December 17, 2009 10:32 PM GMT
how you doing jb.
Report Jason Bourne December 18, 2009 12:52 PM GMT
Super, yourself ?
Report Jason Bourne December 18, 2009 12:55 PM GMT
This Martin is on some form ?:|
Report mascherano December 18, 2009 1:26 PM GMT
Report scarecrow December 18, 2009 4:23 PM GMT
well joe i am happy with my position lowry shot -4 today to miss the cut by one shot sadly,but anders hansen is doing me proud at -9 despite being +3 for the first hole which he seems to hate.i have got rid of my red and still stand to make a nice amount should he oblige.
Report bigjoe December 18, 2009 4:42 PM GMT
Well done Mascherano .. 2 of yours looking ood mate :D

Also well done scarecrow.. anders looking good too :)
Report bigjoe December 18, 2009 5:07 PM GMT
UPDATE after rond 3... not the best news :( ..i wish i had layed ome off yesterday :(

Canete misses cut :(

Henningsson makes cut but at level par he needs 2 spectacular rounds to win now .. but spectacular rounds do happen so where theres life there is hope :)

Van der walt got off to a terrible start .. was -4, but recovered a bit to finish -6 ... tied 6th , 5 off the lead held by last weeks winner pablo :0

Ok have tinkered a bit with my book .... have layed van der walt for 12 quid at 75.0 ... and used this to top up 2 quid on henningsson at 1000.0 :0 ... and the other 10 quid to bring another golfer, Martin Erlandsson onside at just under 38.0 :)

Erlandsson is also tied 6th, and with 2 rounds to go and pablo showing nerves when leaing last week i believe both van der walt and rlansson stll got decent chances if they can show the form they showed in the first round ;)

Upshot of this tinkering with my book is that i still retain my 40 quid liability :( .. but i now ot bigger green on hennigsson... another golfer onside ... and still over 1.7k green on van der walt :)

Latest bets and updated book therefore:

Dawie Van Der Walt 75 £12.00 £900.00 £888.00
Ref: 9703789180 Bet placed: 17:51 18-Dec-09

Martin Erlandsson 37.9 £10.00 £369.00
Ref: 9703794956 Bet placed: 17:52 18-Dec-09

Oskar Henningsson 1000 £2.00 £1,998.00
Ref: 9703800216 Bet placed: 17:53 18-Dec-09

Erlandsson + 322.03
Van Der Walt + 1715.70
Hennigsson + 3762.00
REST -40 :(

Happy to Leave it like that for now and see how things are after round 3 :)

Good Luck :)
Report mascherano December 19, 2009 4:12 PM GMT
Moli :D
Report bigjoe December 19, 2009 5:28 PM GMT
Great call on Molinari mascharano.. hopefully he can get you into rofit too :D

As for mine, bad news :( ... getting erlandson onside did not pay off as he finishes -1 :( .... hennigsson is +1 .... van der walt dops to -4 ... 7 off the lead :(

There is still a tiny chance that van der walt can repeat his heroics of first day and get back into contention ... but more likely its going to be a losing week for me :(

Final update to follow tomorrow :)
Report scarecrow December 20, 2009 1:44 PM GMT
ah well joe i got so close with anders i hate the first hole on that course with a passion beaten by 1 shot and he was +4 over the four rounds on it.
Report bigjoe December 20, 2009 3:43 PM GMT
unlucky scarecrow :(

A losing week for me after a promising 1st round :(

BALANCE AFTER WEEK 2 ...+£761.99

No tournaments for 2 weeks now :( ... next wil be the joburg open on 7th January :)

Look out for my fab 4 for that one... till then.... a merry xmas and peaceful new year to you all :)
Report Jason Bourne December 20, 2009 3:44 PM GMT
Safe holiday BJ.
Report mascherano December 20, 2009 3:51 PM GMT
-80 for me

i tipped and backed Ramsay at the start as well. 160-1 :) :(
Report bigjoe December 20, 2009 4:03 PM GMT
Did you not lay anything off on moli or canizares masheranus :(

Great tips from you this week... well done :)
Report mascherano December 20, 2009 9:31 PM GMT
no let everything ride m8. oh well !
Report johnlocke December 21, 2009 12:34 AM GMT
Bad luck this week bigjoe. Look forward to your picks in the new year. Have a good xmas :)
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