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Oh-Dae Su
14 Dec 09 10:11
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Date Joined: 11 Oct 04
| Topic/replies: 78 | Blogger: Oh-Dae Su's blog
Firstly, a blast of nostalgia from the days when the WACA was truly a quick deck and fast bowlers really did bowl fast. Nowadays Ian Bishop is just another commentator for hire but in his brief prime he was touching greatness, whilst Ambrose's spell is legendary.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3NeI6uL_uso
Pause Switch to Standard View Aus v Windies 3rd Test @ Perth:...
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Report West Coast Eagles December 14, 2009 11:50 AM GMT
WACA Curator Cameron Sutherland is confident the pitch for the 3rd Test will produce more bounce and pace than in the past few summers. For me, this could be similiar to the GABBA 1st test wicket, compared to the traditionally slow Adelaide Oval wicket.
Report bigjoe December 14, 2009 4:07 PM GMT
Pretty straightforward one to call mo ;)

When Aussies layed Injuns at WACA the price differential was 1.3 aussies .. 10.0 injuns :) ...i said for that game that india were the value cos it would be a case of "whats good for the goose would be good or the ghandi :0 " .... well the rest is history as indeed the waca pitch proved that it was not blinkered just in favour of the aussie bowling... the pitch favoured BOTH sets of bowlers and it was Injuns that won he day :)

Now we have aussies against windies at the WACA ..this time the differetial is aussies 1.4 .. windies 9.0 .... i say that or this game it will be a case of "whats good for the goose will be good for the Ganja :^0 " ... again the pitch will not be blinkered in favour of the aussies bowling ... if theres bounce and pace.. he windies bowlers will benefit just as much ;)

Imo the differentials in prices for this test are WOEFULLY wrong.... Aussies SHOULD NOT be 1.4 ... windies SHOULD NOT be around 9.0 ?:|

The draw cannot be ruled out IF the waca pitch proves not to be as bouncy as the olden days ... but i feel the raw price SHOULD be bigger then windies price ;)

I say BY FAR the best strategy in this test is to follow these 3 simple steps:

1) lay aussies at 1.4
2) back Windies at around 9.0
3) when the INEVITABLE , MASSIVE closing between aussies and windies prices occur ... lock in a profit on the match... and collect that profit at the end of the match.

So In conclusion...i m ot sayng windies will definatly win... though i backed 1-1 series scoreline at start of series so wll not be surprised to see them win.....i AM saying that this will e a close game.... low scoring game where 350 will be good score for EITHER team ... this closeness of he match will Invitably lead to windies and aussies prices coming close togethr and maybe even flip flopping at some stage ;)

Aussies could win... but if they do it will only be after a titanic struggle ... my advice to aussie backers is simple ... if you must back them...forget the 1.4 ... you will get mch much much better price in running .. believe me ;)

My advice to windies backers is simple too .. i said at addelaide that the pitch there was windies best chance of a draw ;) ... i say here that this WACA pitch wll be windies best chance of a win ;) .. so back them with confidence ... then decide if you want to lock in a decent profit as they trade sub 3.0 or even go fav ... or if you want to let it run .... that choice will be yours .. the first step HAS to be a lay of the aussies AND a back of the windies before play starts and its too late :(

Good Luck :)
Report Ive heard you crap now hear me December 14, 2009 4:13 PM GMT
you always dream up a good trading match

arse
Report West Coast Eagles December 14, 2009 4:21 PM GMT
I think the Aussies price will be higher at some stage of play, the weather for Perth is 5 days of sunny weather, but I still feel Australia played the better than the Windies in Adelaide. Had that game lasted another 50-60 overs Aussies probably would have just won it.

Chris Gayle has come out and said he wants to win this test match. I cant see this game being a draw, but a 2 way result, especially the price on the Windies looks really attractive for me.

I think again best outcome for laying Aussies, is to hope West Indies bat first, as again I think chasing on this wicket will again be harder than batting first. Bowlers should be able to use the 'Fremantle Doctor' to get the breeze in their favour and also rely on the bounce of the wicket. An attack of Bollinger, Mitch Johnson , McKay/Siddle, Hauritz is definetly not as fearsome as past attacks and West Indies have to bat just as well as they did in Adelaide , to get a good score on the WACA wicket.
Report Jan1ne December 14, 2009 4:37 PM GMT
pitch lost most of its fire by day 4/5 last year, helping saffers to record chase

by all means keep on guessing anyway
Report brentford December 14, 2009 4:51 PM GMT
The shortened career of Bishop was very sad,
even the later part of his career when he was still a very decent bowler was not a patch on what he was pre injury problems and what he could have been long term - would almost certainly have been talked about in the same manner as the all time Windies pacemen.
Report smeagors December 14, 2009 10:17 PM GMT
excellent post od-da .. i love watching old footage of stuff that i actually remember watching as a nipper .. noticed a couple of things .. the comms seem to have brains ( tony greigs in there sounding ok :0 ) and know what the fúck they r talking about .. second .. how good was merv's taché .. :D
Report West Coast Eagles December 15, 2009 6:02 AM GMT
I'll be heading off to the game tommorow, so will keep you guys updated, I expect a pretty close game now that probably Steve Smith and McKay are likely to debut for Aussies.
Report West Coast Eagles December 15, 2009 6:10 AM GMT
Brett Geeves might be given a game as well
Report Lix December 15, 2009 6:27 AM GMT
WI could be without Chnaders and Barath tho :(
Report West Coast Eagles December 15, 2009 8:21 AM GMT
this is quote from a Bigfooty.com forumite on the cricket forum there:

"Having been at the WACA this morning the pitch looks as it has for the last few shield games, a road. "
Report STEPTOES YARD December 15, 2009 11:58 AM GMT
Hate this test just for the later start
Report Max and Paddy December 15, 2009 12:01 PM GMT
How was your holiday, SY? You picked a great day to come back: a cracking match all but ruined by the outage!
Report West Coast Eagles December 15, 2009 12:02 PM GMT
good for me SY, as its in my time zone, but I will probably stay up to watch EPL tonight then head off to the cricket
Report STEPTOES YARD December 15, 2009 12:04 PM GMT
Had a great time max. Nice weather all week and nice lapdancing club B-)

Good to be back though

Another fantastic week for Boro as well :_|
Report Smalltime Punter December 15, 2009 1:38 PM GMT
Draw looks pretty good to me given the way Perth has played in recent years. Chanderpaul out would be a setback, but 5.4 still appeals. Wouldn't touch Aus @ 1.4 with anyone's money, and still can't really see WI bowling Aus out twice so not tempted by them even at 8/1.

However, I thought much the same before the Adelaide match but didn't bet; this time I'm putting my money where my mouth is, so it'll probably be over in 3 days...
Report Smalltime Punter December 15, 2009 1:44 PM GMT
Any update on how much of a doubt Hauritz is?

They can't think he's too likely to miss out if all they've called up as cover is Steven Smith (first class bowling average 75.18).

What are the likely sides? I guess

Watson
Katich
Ponting
Hussey
Clarke
North
Haddin
Johnson
Hauritz/Geeves
Mackay
Bollinger

versus

Gayle
Dowlin
Sarwan
Bravo
Nash
Deonarine
Ramdin
Sammy
Benn
Rampaul
Roach

Hmm, WI batting looks a lot flakier on paper without Chanderpaul. Plus they might chase the game a bit at 1-0 down.

Maybe I'll pussy out of backing the draw again after all.
Report Lix December 15, 2009 1:46 PM GMT
usually get 8+ wkts on day1 in Perth. Cant back the draw as a start here imo.
Report Lix December 15, 2009 1:47 PM GMT
usually get 8+ wkts on day1 in Perth. Cant back the draw as a start here imo.
Report Smalltime Punter December 15, 2009 11:44 PM GMT
Fair point Lix, but I was actually just thinking of it as an outright bet rather than a trading position. Have duly had a small touch at 5.8.

Ideally need Aus to bat first and score a lot, but fairly slowly - danger with WI batting first is a) they get skittled, or b) they bat well but chase the game later by making a 'sporting' declaration in the 3rd inns to try to square the series.

Will no doubt wake up to find both sides 100 all out...
Report Lix December 15, 2009 11:53 PM GMT
Hmm.. a bit of lateral thinking makes me think what if....?

Its been quite usual to have a whole 1st inns done and dusted on day 1 here recently before the pitch loses a bit of spice and flattens out on day 3 onwards.

What if a team 'only' loses 6/7 wkts on day1? Not that unlikely and would make the draw come in massively if the pitch plays to recent form

5.8 the draw has quite a bit of appeal if the batting side can last 110 ish overs. Not unreasonable with decent batting line ups and depleted bowling attacks.

I'm on! (smallish stakes, probably gonna get some kip for the main event tomo)
Report Master Mind December 15, 2009 11:59 PM GMT
Perth used to be great bowling pitch but in recent years more betting friendly. cant say anything it could be bowling pitch. I think to relay on west inides is foolishness before the start of game.We should not bet untill we have many doubts in mind.wish you all guys good luck
Report Master Mind December 16, 2009 12:00 AM GMT
timming of test is worst for me. specially for me sitting in london whole night to watch match..............
Report TopTier December 16, 2009 1:09 AM GMT
This WIs batting line-up looks awful and that is saying something. This does looks like a 1.01 train.
Report TopTier December 16, 2009 1:11 AM GMT
More than happy to lump on Aus here.
Report Smalltime Punter December 16, 2009 7:58 AM GMT
Hadn't anticipated them dropping Sammy for Tonge I must admit - good move really given that they have to win, but not so good for draw backers. Sammy is perfect if you're on the draw - fairly economical bowler who rarely gets anyone out and a solid lower order batsman.

Happy to see Aus batting; just need WI to match whatever Aus make and it'll be looking good...
Report bigjoe December 16, 2009 8:19 AM GMT
my back of windies not looking oo clever :( ... but as usual i say its a marathon not a sprint :)

I also ayed aussies at 1.4 .. and am happy to lay some more at 1.32 .. and have even topped up another couple of quid on windies at 22.0 :0

Obviously this is not the old waca pitch... this aussie attack of johnson, mckay, bollinger and hauritz is not the old aussie attack .... this combination means hat whtever aussies score the windies with batting will respond in kind :0 and we could get a bore draw.

BUT do not rule out a windies win yet ;) ... aussies could till be ot or less then 500 ... and even if they not..i can see another arrogant declration from tricky ricky at around 500... then i can see ths woefully wek aussies attack huff and puff for 2 days and windies spin twins embarrasing aussies on day 5 ;)

So i say, long way to go yet...i will collect... this woeful aussies attack will ensure that the 2 mot likely results at the business end of he match will be a draw...or windies win ;)

Good Luck :)
Report bigjoe December 16, 2009 8:24 AM GMT
layed at 1.31 .. not 1.32 :)
Report Smalltime Punter December 16, 2009 8:25 AM GMT
Hope you're right Joe, but the WI batting looks a worry - Deonarine, Dowlin and Tonge for Barath, Chanderpaul and Sammy weakens it considerably. The Aussie bowling doesn't look very good, but unfortunately it may not have to be.

Draw price still more of a back than a lay though.
Report bigjoe December 16, 2009 8:33 AM GMT
against this bowling attack windies batting down to no9 with rampaul will not do too bad SP .. ;)
Report Lies, DamnLies, and Statistics December 16, 2009 9:32 AM GMT
joe, would you be able to pick clint mckay out of a line-up??

just thinking, that is all...

p.s. w/o chanders and barath, gayle EXTREMELY unlikely by law of averages to come off twice in a row, and sarwan receiving more treatment on his back than tiger woods, what exactly is the upside for the windies??

p.p.s. that is a rhetorical question...

;)
Report Lix December 16, 2009 9:45 AM GMT
wait for a decent price on Aus with a good WI partnership and lump on imo. That WI batting line up is waaaay flakier than the last test and this is a big result venue. Aus have also scored quickly with a great platform for Haddin/Johnson to pile em on even more.
Report s.s December 16, 2009 8:43 PM GMT
is this picth got a result in it aus bat all day have 3 days to get wi 2 times?
Report Bernie Larkham December 16, 2009 9:45 PM GMT
Pitch is a featherbed. If Chanders and Borat were playing would be all over the draw. Perth aint the pitch it used to be, been completely relaid (maybe after India, not sure exactly) and they were trying to get it back to the old days. Unfortunately it hasnt happened and maybe even worse than it was for the bowlers
Report TopTier December 16, 2009 11:31 PM GMT
Might well turn out to be unbowler friendly for the whole 5 days but with this WIs batting and considering digging in for a draw will lose them the series expect WIs to throw their wickets away in an easy Aus win.
Report Green Beard December 17, 2009 12:19 AM GMT
i personally think windies might see a lot of honour in losing just 1-0 away to aussies

they took a lot of heart by not being beaten by aussies last match . . . . and think they might disappoint low odds backers this time too

saying that, i wouldnt batter an eyelid if they were 80 for 4 at end of the day either
Report TopTier December 17, 2009 12:41 AM GMT
So your sitting on your hands then GB????
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