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Girls aloud lezzer scrum
16 Dec 09 07:05
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Date Joined: 08 Apr 08
| Topic/replies: 30,578 | Blogger: Girls aloud lezzer scrum's blog
Eng win & bowl
Pause Switch to Standard View **** South Africa v England - 1st...
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Report STEPTOES YARD December 16, 2009 2:15 PM GMT
Think the smith wicket meant he stayed on so long
Report Cuddy December 16, 2009 2:15 PM GMT
god, has botham only had one thing to say today? every time i tune in and he's on, it's the same thing over and over again! luckiest bowler ever to get over 350 wickets and now this.
Report STEPTOES YARD December 16, 2009 2:16 PM GMT
How did the day finish in perth cuddy ?
Report johnterry 26 December 16, 2009 2:17 PM GMT
finally the Saffers price is moving
Report H99 December 16, 2009 2:17 PM GMT
339/3
Report STEPTOES YARD December 16, 2009 2:17 PM GMT
cheers
Report richieboy44 December 16, 2009 2:18 PM GMT
wow
Report STEPTOES YARD December 16, 2009 2:18 PM GMT
pathetic effort that
Report michael knight December 16, 2009 2:18 PM GMT
Well played Sir.
Report richieboy44 December 16, 2009 2:18 PM GMT
kallis ton
Report Innocent Bystander December 16, 2009 2:19 PM GMT
sniper down .... and it aint me ;)
Report STEPTOES YARD December 16, 2009 2:19 PM GMT
Not yet ib ;)
Report michael knight December 16, 2009 2:20 PM GMT
6 overs left - at this rate draw will be odds on if no wicket by end of play.
Report richieboy44 December 16, 2009 2:21 PM GMT
SA price on the drift, obviously market believes not scoring quick enough ?? can be the only explanation
Report richieboy44 December 16, 2009 2:22 PM GMT
SA runrate 2.85 ...v slowwwwwww
Report foolds gold December 16, 2009 2:22 PM GMT
few things to factor in richie. no wickets, slow scoring, pitch playing well
Report Innocent Bystander December 16, 2009 2:22 PM GMT
SY

Sniping is dead - there are a dozen snipers somewhere in the crowd all chasing prices down on events - rather trade the market as I see it in front of me, worked well for me this year

Cricket sniping will be like horse racing soon...
Report Lix December 16, 2009 2:22 PM GMT
some big money wanting the draw now .
Report Green Beard December 16, 2009 2:23 PM GMT
its because for the 1st day nearly copleted, the match hasnt moved on a lot at all . . . saffers havent got that many runs, and england havent got many wickets

and the pitch looks fairly easy now, so england should be able to bat well too
Report richieboy44 December 16, 2009 2:24 PM GMT
yep 50 k , wantin 2.12 .... a wicket and lumpy would be clicking cancel like crazzzyyy :^0
Report Lix December 16, 2009 2:24 PM GMT
I'm sure you could still snipe in some places IB.

Bangladesh maybe? ;)
Report bf trader December 16, 2009 2:24 PM GMT
get a decent api ap and you can see what ib says is correct. the fastest in will always do ok of course. these days you can see snipers gambling on outcomes to try and get in first though. meanwhile it can be profitable simple picking the snipers off these days when they get it wrong.
Report johnterry 26 December 16, 2009 2:25 PM GMT
Innocent Bystander 16 Dec 15:22
SY

Sniping is dead - there are a dozen snipers somewhere in the crowd all chasing prices down on events - rather trade the market as I see it in front of me, worked well for me this year

Cricket sniping will be like horse racing soon...

Have you not always done that IB?
Report richieboy44 December 16, 2009 2:25 PM GMT
lumpy cancelled his 50 K at 2.12 .... :(
Report Innocent Bystander December 16, 2009 2:26 PM GMT
nope, was a thinly veiled 'had a smashing year' post :D
Report STEPTOES YARD December 16, 2009 2:26 PM GMT
And heres me thinking you didnt snipe on moral grounds IB ;)
Report Green Beard December 16, 2009 2:26 PM GMT
think market is going to roughly stick arond these odds after that adjustment unless collapse happens obviously . . . .

wont move much until england bat, and if we get to 20/0 . . . hello draw train

i just dont see any penetration in either teams bowling attack, so heavily on draw and massive lay of saffers from the start of the day . . . decent day but if cook and strauss hang around it will be pretty set up for a good test match
Report Lix December 16, 2009 2:26 PM GMT
somehow I knew the draw was a good bet here today. Think it was PJ's 'Lay the Draw' thread that convinced me :)
Report Cuddy December 16, 2009 2:27 PM GMT
is it mainly cricket you do, ib?

got to be disappointed with only taking 4 wickets after sticking a side in. would be egg in face were it not for the run rate.
Report Innocent Bystander December 16, 2009 2:28 PM GMT
correct bft

On that kallis shot for 4 that brought up his ton, I was looking to key up some 2.16 to back the draw to close down an earlier lay, however i waited to do it at a neutral point (between balls). As i waited saw the ball was going to the boundary and clicked - managed to get some snipers 2.32

Tactics change, we just have to change with them
Report Green Beard December 16, 2009 2:28 PM GMT
bf trader 16 Dec 15:24
get a decent api ap and you can see what ib says is correct. the fastest in will always do ok of course. these days you can see snipers gambling on outcomes to try and get in first though. meanwhile it can be profitable simple picking the snipers off these days when they get it wrong.



like the ones who are a bit eager and go in when someone skies it and an indian fielder settles underneath it :D
Report richieboy44 December 16, 2009 2:28 PM GMT
yep , draw back for me too
Report richieboy44 December 16, 2009 2:29 PM GMT
gwaaan GB , fairplay to you ... I like it when a forumite takes on lumpy and wins
Report Green Beard December 16, 2009 2:30 PM GMT
anyone know much about this wet bloke in for steyn?

was shocked the market didnt give steyn 15 ticks or so .. . .
Report STEPTOES YARD December 16, 2009 2:30 PM GMT
Hes a slippery bowler
Report Cuddy December 16, 2009 2:31 PM GMT
what are the decent api aps, then, at the risk of getting lambasted for not looking it up on google? am i in the dark ages by just using the standard interface?
Report Innocent Bystander December 16, 2009 2:31 PM GMT
he's a bit moist behind the ears...
Report Innocent Bystander December 16, 2009 2:32 PM GMT
cuddy

check out geekstoy - takes some learning though
Report bf trader December 16, 2009 2:35 PM GMT
geek was involved with adam's todd's old lot. not used new one as am happy with other products.**s app worth a look cuddy.

but no, you are not in the dark ages. if you simply take the odd position there is no need for anything bar the website. having prices refresh several times a second though gives a great insight into what is happening in markets, especially shorter or more volatile ones and i like to have and use this info as well as make more traditional positional plays.
Report Green Beard December 16, 2009 2:36 PM GMT
i know i do this every week, but anyone got the premium charge portal link? :_|
Report johnterry 26 December 16, 2009 2:37 PM GMT
stop deleting your browser history GB and it'll remember it for you

https://account.betfair.com/regpay-myaccount/premiumcharge/summary.html
Report bf trader December 16, 2009 2:38 PM GMT
https://account.betfair.com/regpay-myaccount/premiumcharge/summary.html

out of interest did anyone have pc taken once last week. then have a correction and have more taken out later.

talk about a kick in the teeth...
Report STEPTOES YARD December 16, 2009 2:39 PM GMT
Unless you need to delete browser history ;)
Report fundamentalist December 16, 2009 2:39 PM GMT
someone teach GB how to use the favourites function in IE lol
Report STEPTOES YARD December 16, 2009 2:39 PM GMT
I did bf.

shocking stuff
Report Innocent Bystander December 16, 2009 2:40 PM GMT
i think they messed up with the portal last week, numbers changed over the course of the week
Report Green Beard December 16, 2009 2:40 PM GMT
thought 0.5% of people got premim charged?
Report bf trader December 16, 2009 2:41 PM GMT
really? i thought noone in the uk was a "consistent winner" :^0
Report bf trader December 16, 2009 2:42 PM GMT
(where's lori when you need him)
Report Green Beard December 16, 2009 2:43 PM GMT
is the best way of avoiding it,

a) upping stakes by 20% and continuing what your doing, so you essentially pigeon hole betfairs grubby hands into each of your trades

or

b) just stay in for longer, take more risks, take more hefty wins, and more hefty losses and that will sort your commission out?
Report bf trader December 16, 2009 2:44 PM GMT
c) for me
Report STEPTOES YARD December 16, 2009 2:45 PM GMT
Good call you 2.1s for draw at stumps
Report brentford December 16, 2009 2:45 PM GMT
wouldn't recommend b) personally.
Report STEPTOES YARD December 16, 2009 2:46 PM GMT
262-4

STUMPS
Report brentford December 16, 2009 2:47 PM GMT
if your success has been based around a relatively low risk strategy and you suddenly start taking big hits and wins - you might get a nasty shock as to your p/l
Report brentford December 16, 2009 2:49 PM GMT
as for a) - why weren't you doing that already if it was as simple as that ?
Report bohemond December 16, 2009 2:50 PM GMT
neither your a or b are good ideas gb - a is not practical and b will likely lead to pain
Report Green Beard December 16, 2009 2:51 PM GMT
c) bend over and take it like a man

done/doing a . . . still hurts on wednesday though even if you have accounted for it, might go up a notch again
Report Doyler1987 December 16, 2009 2:53 PM GMT
What do we think now? Draw?

I've been on the Saffer lay all day but its moved 4 ticks for about 4 hours.. :|
Report brentford December 16, 2009 2:54 PM GMT
would be too big a shift for the forum to come to terms with as well if Supertraders became erractic win/loss position takers.
Report DStyle December 16, 2009 2:54 PM GMT
is botham p1ssed or has he been in the sun all day
Report bf trader December 16, 2009 2:54 PM GMT
plenty of people using c) d) e) etc etc to legally reduce pc gb in ways that bf are more than happy with. good luck touching your toes :0
Report bohemond December 16, 2009 2:54 PM GMT
how can i up stakes by 20% - my positions are dictated by how much and what price i can get matched at - attacking am price i want to ake on or backing one i like

if u r a consistent winner using the one account pc is not easy to avoid - that is a fact
Report Max Cady December 16, 2009 2:55 PM GMT
botham RANTING
Report SwindonBoy December 16, 2009 2:55 PM GMT
seething with broad
Report bohemond December 16, 2009 2:56 PM GMT
c,d and e being bft ? arbing losses into your betfair account?
Report brentford December 16, 2009 2:56 PM GMT
Doyler - not much help but keep an eye on how the pitch plays,
been a little bit of uneven bounce today, how that develops probably dictates the game as the surface is quite slow and the SA bowling line up not a great one.
Report Green Beard December 16, 2009 2:58 PM GMT
how can you avoid it?

i basically only use betfair unless i take awful odds over at** during a downage . .. how do you legally reduce it? just use other bookies?
Report VardonVoo. December 16, 2009 2:59 PM GMT
More importantly, how will the odds move as play progresses?

England odds obviously creep out with time unless wickets fall, and a flurry
would be needed to bring them in sharply.

Draw contracts in the absence of wickets.

SA odds would logically seem to have limited room to contract unless
they start scoring quickly, plus any wickets would pop the price out,
so is this a relatively low risk lay compared to the other outcomes, which
could be covered cheaply on the fall of a wicket if things went wrong.

Have I missed anything obvious?
Report Doyler1987 December 16, 2009 2:59 PM GMT
Ya, have had to trade out though because wont be around to look after my position tomorrow, probably not bad a thing slightly confused as to how things will pan out in the morning anyway. Looks like it'll be a draw but plenty of water to go under the bridge yet.
Report brentford December 16, 2009 3:00 PM GMT
think the limited movement on SA works in both directions,

wickets aren't going to drift them much if at all initially as the draw will suffer the brunt of the Eng contraction
Report VardonVoo. December 16, 2009 3:05 PM GMT
Kallis getting out would surely have the most impact.
Report Richard LL December 16, 2009 3:05 PM GMT
tough day for position takers, one for the grinders, England looked a tempting back at many times during the day, I'm glad I resisted, a poor day for England, a poor day for SA backers.
Report bigjoe December 16, 2009 3:09 PM GMT
Intersting day :)

Ok so whats going to happen over the next 4 days ? ?:| ..i will tell yer :)

Firstly, forget saffers winning this test ... on this pitch without steyn an attack of ntnini, wet, morkel and harris would struggle to bowl out a Barking select X1 let alone this strong England batting lineup :0

My main pre match bet was a lay off saffers and a small top up of england ...i have topped up another couple of quid on enlgland at 7.4 earler ..i believe that they are oly team that can win this game.

Draw is rightly fav , a lot depends on how the saffrs last 6 wickets do ...they ould reach 500 ... but boucher and the tail are not in great nick...i think swanny could skittle them out as they not the best against spin...and i still believe saffers will be restricted to less then 450 :)

Saffers will then nt restrict england to less then 500 ... i can see enland batting best part of 2 days and its them that will ne taking a healthy first innings lead that will mean that if it is a draw .. it will be the saffrs clinging onto that draw , ot england ;)

Overall i am ultra confident that my lay of saffers will bear fruit.....and quietly confident that the top ups on england will look tasty by day 5 too ;)

Good Luck all :)
Report Innocent Bystander December 16, 2009 3:31 PM GMT
A good day for aftertimers ;) They can say England should have batted, but the pitch yesterday was damp after a week of rain and the green colour always makes an Englishman blanche- particularly on his wicket :D

4 or 5 bowlers? Was a toss up pre game but the thought of a seamers deck meant they had to lengthen their batting - if they lost the toss and the ball moved a lot it could have been game over in an hour. England couldnt know Steyn was out pre game, but notice the home side have also gone for 4 bowlers - so are they wrong too?

Pitch has rolled out nicely, bar the odd Kallis drama queen moment for balls that didnt seem to keep that low to me. Saffers were at tea a wicket away from being 300 all out. Think it should bat at its best for the next 2 days, and could leave some day 4/5 fun, but dont bank on it

Also worthwhile keeping an eye on the weather boys for day 5 ;)
Report Innocent Bystander December 16, 2009 3:43 PM GMT
Nice to watch the prices today - saffer price hardly moving as eng and the draw traded percentages. Was like a ballet at times
Report bigjoe December 16, 2009 3:47 PM GMT
9.6 england :0 .. oh well.. another couple of quid topped up :)
Report Ratbag December 16, 2009 3:47 PM GMT
Funny, I thought the same - the balls that "leapt" at Kallis didn't look all that scary to me, although he made them look lke they were a combination of hand grenade and mexican jumping spider.
Report Innocent Bystander December 16, 2009 3:48 PM GMT
I think Kallis has been having too many beers with KP :D
Report Ratbag December 16, 2009 3:50 PM GMT
Although his previous habit of having too many pies - or possibly mattresses, judging from his profile in the SA / Aus games - may have passed.
Report BigMig December 16, 2009 3:55 PM GMT
Fear for England here. Batting on days 4/5 will be a lot harder than batting on day 1.
Report Green Beard December 16, 2009 3:57 PM GMT
what is it with bowling attacks nowadays?

in both test matches going on, i cant see either attack taking 20 wickets, and thus have to go on the draw on both
Report Johnny Fontaine December 16, 2009 3:59 PM GMT
England have to make their first knock count.
Report Innocent Bystander December 16, 2009 4:00 PM GMT
more to do with wickets GB - pressure to produce 5 day strips and too many games taking the life out of decks.
Report Lix December 16, 2009 4:00 PM GMT
you dont think Aus can take 20 WI wkts GB?

On a result pitch with no chanders, Barath, Sammy?
Report Johnny Fontaine December 16, 2009 4:12 PM GMT
If Steyn was playing what price would Saffers be Lix?
Report Green Beard December 16, 2009 4:15 PM GMT
not sure its a result pitch lix

but the ineptitude of windies knows no bounds, do they could skittle them . . . .

but personally think 1.3 is big lay, their resolve would have gine up a bit because of last match, but gayle needs a big knock
Report d13phe December 16, 2009 4:32 PM GMT
interesting market this

eng over priced and draw far too low

i actually think Saffers pitiful run rate will land them in trouble

their tail well and truly starts at 8 with morkel and some would say 7 with boucher

eng need to start well tomorrow but they are still well in this test

60/40 saffers on the day

250/5 would have been even and 260/6 would have been engs day imo
Report bigjoe December 16, 2009 4:36 PM GMT
first innings lead is going to decide who is under pressure on days 4 and 5 ... imo... england heading for 100+ lead ;)

Then its a matter of if the pitch crumbles .. if it does.. england win...if it does not... saffrers will scrape a draw :)
Report d13phe December 16, 2009 4:38 PM GMT
interesting thing for me is that the ball turned and bounced on day one

if eng do get parity or a lead then i think swann is better than harris to exploit the wicket

i also cant see this saffer bowling attack causing many problems

the eng batsman as we know can get themselves out though
Report Lix December 16, 2009 6:13 PM GMT
JF- If Steyn was playing I'd expect SA to be between 2.2-2.3

As GB said earlier, his absence should have been worth 15 or so ticks on the SA price. amazed it took the market that long to factor it in. (SA still underpriced though imo with massive question marks over their 4 man attack)
Report brentford December 16, 2009 6:19 PM GMT
was briefly factored before the toss and then Eng bowled on a sunny day which tempered mood imo
as stated pre game (for IB)....was a tough toss decision but think it made any big drift on SA impossible as no one one was sure the insertion was correct....
Report Jan1ne December 16, 2009 6:43 PM GMT
ryan sidebottom should be seething, has been treated like $hit in the last year or so by the selectors, bit of left arm over would have been nice
Report Jan1ne December 16, 2009 6:47 PM GMT
fwiw the consensus that 8/1 eng - or 7/2 DNB :0 - is still generous, saffers look one wicket away from a pretty average position
Report Lay Lay and Lay again December 16, 2009 8:23 PM GMT
Weather in johannesberg for days 4 and 5 look bad.
Report johnterry 26 December 16, 2009 8:26 PM GMT
do you have a source for that info? :)
Report Lay Lay and Lay again December 16, 2009 8:32 PM GMT
http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/82
Report d13phe December 16, 2009 8:33 PM GMT
lol
Report Fantismo December 16, 2009 9:47 PM GMT
sunny thursday and friday. heavy rain saturday and sunday.
Report DOUBLE THE TROUBLE December 16, 2009 10:49 PM GMT
Im heavily involved on the draw. Slow wicket that will get slower. I like Swann a huge amount but dont think either team have a "world class spinner" that can turn a game on its head, pacemen will tire out as the wicket does less and less, 2.02 a gift imo so GET ON......gl all
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