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09 Dec 09 16:50
Date Joined: 03 Aug 05
| Topic/replies: 3,039 | Blogger: bigjoe's blog

New season starts tomorrow :) .... The last season was very profitable, over 2k profit thanks mainly to 2 massive priced winners and a couple of god trading weeks.

But thats all past now .. cannot live on past glories :( ... 640000 rupee question is was it a fluke ? :0 .. or can i back it up with another profitable season again :)

I say i can ...i have made profit with this strategy past 3 years on betfair ... so no reason to stop now :) and on this thread over the next 50 weeks of the season i reckon i will prove it :)

Just to clarify my strategy again ..i pick my fab 4 golfers whom i believe are overpriced considering their potential.

My starting position will be a tenner on each golfer before tourny starts .. all bets posted here with ref numbers :)

My aim obviously will be to try and trade a profit .... i usually do not lay anything off on my fab 4 till they trade around 10th of their original price :) .... i will then either trade to lock in a profit ..or to rid my liability ... or my other preffered option sometimes of laying off and using those funds to bring other golfers onside .. BUT ... my liability will never exceed the original 40 quid per week :)

All my trades will also be posted with ref numbers :) and i usually do my trading after the rounds have finished, apart from the final round when i might do it in play

To help keep track of my progress i will this season post weekly updates on my overall balance .... starting at 00.00 this will be interesting to see it develop.. good or bad :( over the next 50 weeks :)

My worse case scenrio will be that i lose my 40 each of the next 50 weeks :( and so will give back that 2k profit from last season :( .... but i remain confident that it will not come to that ;)

I will have long losing sequances cos i always do very big prices ... i know that .. and those that follow me must realise that too .. BUT i also know that when i win, it will be a worthwhile win and over the next 50 weeks i will pick 2 or 3 nice juicy winners that will ensure yet another profitable season :)

I say join me in this exciting venture .. you can choose your own stakes ... do £2 per bet if you prefer .... alternatively you are welcome to use these threads to pick our own golfers and keep your own balance and see if you do better ;)

Finally i say to those that will inevitably be saying why am i posting this on cricket forum and not golf :( ... its like it says on the tin ... its a fun diversion for me and my cricket buddies :)

Ok so lets go with my first Fab 4 of this season in the Alfred Dunhill in safferland starting tomorrow :)

Hennie Otto 85 £10.00 £840.00
Ref: 9635768869 Bet placed: 17:33 09-Dec-09

Pablo Martin 170 £10.00 £1,690.00
Ref: 9635776373 Bet placed: 17:34 09-Dec-09

Michael Hoey 170 £10.00 £1,690.00
Ref: 9635779667 Bet placed: 17:35 09-Dec-09

Richard Finch 140 £10.00 £1,390.00
Ref: 9635784805 Bet placed: 17:36 09-Dec-09

HENNE OTTO @ 85.00 .. Worth backing on home soil .. won on our 2 years ago and i weak field he could go close again :)

PABLO MARTIN @ 170.00 .. Up and comng spaniard who won as an amateur a couple of years go .. showed signs of returning to form and is worth backing this year :)

MICHAEL HOEY @ 170.00 .. Won in portugal a few monhs ago . 170.0 is a massive price in this weak field imo .. nuff said :)

RICHARD FICH @ 140.00 .. Gritty english journyman that makes frequent visits to leaderboards.. another inner on tour that has shown he has the talent .. could go close here :)

My starting book therefore after commision is:

H.Otto + 769.50
P.Martin + 1577.00
M. Hoey + 1577.00
R.Finch + 1292.00
REST -40 :(

A reminder that this starts around 4 am tomorrow .. so get yer stakes and skates on :)

Updates to follow after each round :)

Good Luck :)
Pause Switch to Standard View golf bets for my cricket buddies .....
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Report fredderf December 9, 2009 4:56 PM GMT
Before jason**wishes you goodluck....goodluck. lol
Report Max and Paddy December 9, 2009 4:57 PM GMT
I would wish you all the best, bigjoe, but as I'm following you in (as it were) you're fúcked :p

A lad on the footie forum had ten winning bets in a row - at prices from 1.3 to 2.5. I layed £2 @ 3.0 on his 11th tip last weekend - and he had his first loser :^0
Report bigjoe December 9, 2009 5:18 PM GMT
"cheers " max :(

But i am sure even you can't bok my overall profit over the season :) .. so i say stick with me for the whole 50 weeks.. through thick and thin .. you wont regret it ;)
Report smeagors December 9, 2009 5:58 PM GMT
not happy mate .. 27 smileys for a golf thread !! :0 !! and only 18/19 for your ckt threads :(
Report crunchyfrog December 9, 2009 7:51 PM GMT
"and a couple of god trading weeks."
Surely that should read "demi-god trading weeks" :-)
Anyway, I'm following your tips bj.
Aiming to lay off sooner, and accumulate more weeks of small profits rather than only the occasional jackpot!
Report mascherano December 9, 2009 10:05 PM GMT
big joe, i will challenge you this season and let's see who can come up with the greatest profit :)

£10 Canizares 65-1
£10 Rafael Cabrera-Bello 40-1
£10 Carlos Rodiles 350-1
£10 George Coetzee 430-1

Canizares + £640.00
Bello + £390.00
Rodiles + £3,490.00
Coetzee + £4,290.00

- £40.00

i wish you the best of luck for the new season Joe !
Report TwoTonTed December 9, 2009 10:19 PM GMT
head in hands man for mascherano as he inexorably strives to prove that he's a better tipster :D
Report callysboy December 9, 2009 11:44 PM GMT
Report Jason Bourne December 10, 2009 12:20 AM GMT
Hard to know where to start ?:|
Report Jason Bourne December 10, 2009 12:20 AM GMT
But as always, good luck. I'm off golf until the new year.
Report alfee December 10, 2009 1:04 AM GMT
good luck fellas, lets see some winners, i love emm.
Report TopTier December 10, 2009 1:52 AM GMT
Uncalled for TTT. GL Mac go burst the ego bubble. :-)
Report bigjoe December 10, 2009 12:42 PM GMT
good man mascherano .... i always like a challenge :D

Good luck , hopefully we can both be in profit in 50 weeks time :0 ... and shall we agree a freindly £50 bet for charity on the outcome ?
Report bigjoe December 10, 2009 12:57 PM GMT
and i assume you will be following the same rules as me... 4 pre start picks...40 quid max liability at any time on any event.... other golfers can be backed in running BUT only with money generated by laying off one or more of the original picks at lower prices..... no aftertimng .. all trades posted at the time :)

Good luck :)
Report bigjoe December 10, 2009 5:16 PM GMT
update after 1st round ... and its mixed news :( :)

Otto +2 and hoey +1 need to pull their socks up and have better 2nd rounds if they want to ake the cut :(

Finch got it to -5 , but slipped to -3, tied 25th, still a solid round and is well placed :)

Young pablo martin got it to -6, but also slipped back to -4 , tied 14th.... very good round and if he can follow it up with another one tomorrow he should be in the mix for the weekend :)

No changes to my book, but will see how things stand after 2nd round :)

Good Luck :)
Report mascherano December 10, 2009 7:00 PM GMT
yes m8. £50 to charity

my updates

Bello -3
Canizares +2
Rodiles +2

gl joe. may the best man win !
Report mascherano December 10, 2009 7:01 PM GMT
it's going to be a long year :)
Report spider1 December 10, 2009 7:48 PM GMT
following you in big joe ive followed you before and you really are top draw
Report mascherano December 10, 2009 8:39 PM GMT
George Coetzee +1
Report TopTier December 11, 2009 12:56 PM GMT
Martin one off the lead at -8. Could be a profitable week. GL BJ
Report Max and Paddy December 11, 2009 2:23 PM GMT
Martin is two shots clear after 17 :0

I've layed Martin at 8.0. I'm flat on the field and very nice green on Martin. Fair play to bigjoe. He's even managed to defy the M&P curse :D
Report bigjoe December 11, 2009 2:53 PM GMT
eagle on last :0 ... -13...4 clear ;)
Report bigjoe December 11, 2009 2:55 PM GMT
will let market settle...i expect i will lock in a profit later..... :D
Report smeagors December 11, 2009 3:46 PM GMT
:D .. week 1 .. 170/1 tip can now be layed @ 4/1 .. where are the knockers ?:|
Report bigjoe December 11, 2009 3:50 PM GMT
to be fair smeags not many knock my golf tips :)

But yes a good start to season :D ... just hope its not just beginners luck ;)
Report Max and Paddy December 11, 2009 3:50 PM GMT
The SHROODIES ;) backed him at 180 :D and layed off at 8 :( :)
Report smeagors December 11, 2009 3:52 PM GMT
M+P .. you might have reversed jinxed bj here .. he was on a bit of a losing streak and then all of a sudden you've popped up and bingo :)
Report michael knight December 11, 2009 4:07 PM GMT
well done Joe.
Report mascherano December 11, 2009 4:25 PM GMT
Bello doing ok as well.
Report Jason Bourne December 11, 2009 4:39 PM GMT
I'd be inclined to merely cancel the red on Martin and let the rest run, he's looking good this week.
Report bigjoe December 11, 2009 4:58 PM GMT
Cheers chaps :) .good call on cabrera bello too mascheranos :)

Update after 2nd round... great news :)

First the bad news :( ... otto is otto here... misses the cut :(

Finch at -1 and Hoey at -2 make the cut but need 2 miracle rounds to win :(

But young Pablo does the business .. amazing round of 63 sees him at -13 ... 4 ahead of the field :0

JB i thought the same, but with the big easy only 4 back i have decided to at least lock in 100 quid profit :)

Therefore i have layed Pablo at 4.9 for £146 :0 .... means i still retain over 1k green on him, but also i am guarenteed 100 quid if he falters :)

Latest bet and updated book is now:

Pablo Martin 4.9 £146.00 £715.40 £569.40
Ref: 9649793042 Bet placed: 17:45 11-Dec-09

Pablo Martin + 1036.07
Finch +1430.70
Hoey + 1715.70
REST +100.70 :D

Happy to leave it like hat for now and see how things stand after 3rd round tomorrow.

Good Luck :)
Report Jason Bourne December 11, 2009 5:02 PM GMT
Congrats, great start to the season.
Report bigjoe December 11, 2009 5:16 PM GMT
cheers JB ..i hope i aint peaked too early :(
Report johnlocke December 11, 2009 5:29 PM GMT
Cheers for the tips bigjoe :)

Dont know anything about golf, but thanks to you my book is currently:

+ 317.30 Pablo
+ 260.30 Finch
+ 317.30 Hoey
- 6 Everyone else

Can Pablo hold on?
Report callysboy December 11, 2009 5:36 PM GMT
good stuff joe, good start a got 20 on each and contemplating whether to lay off or not.
Report bigjoe December 11, 2009 6:16 PM GMT
i think you should at least lay off your stakes callsboy .... 4 shot lead sounds a lot... but still 36 holes to go :(

Hopefully pablo can hod on ...if wind does not get up i think he will .. but if it blows ... so could he so i think locking in at least a small profit is prudent :)
Report mascherano December 11, 2009 8:45 PM GMT
superb tip joe.glad to see one off us is going to get off to a quick start.
Report adrianooooo December 11, 2009 11:09 PM GMT
v.well done joe.
Report blackcap December 12, 2009 7:39 AM GMT
Great call BJ and wouldnt you know it its the week I couldnt bet. So missed out this time. Not to worry i got onto the 2 winners last year. Wil be all in again from next week on.
Report blackcap December 12, 2009 10:01 AM GMT
Now im starting to get annoyed I missed out. Paplo is now at 2.70.

BJ do you take some more profit at this stage or are you letting run?
Report bigjoe December 12, 2009 10:34 AM GMT
blackap..i usually wait till end of round before tinkering with book ... sometimes i miss out on shorter prices... sometimes it works other way :)
Report blackcap December 12, 2009 10:50 AM GMT
Cheers BJ, I understand its important to be consistant in your way of thinking too. I can imagine trying to tinker one week and not the next bringing disasterous resuts. Well you will be happy with Pablo now, see him at 2.40. Good luck and hope it works well for you.
Report Max and Paddy December 12, 2009 2:39 PM GMT
Here are the scores at the end of the third round:

202 Pablo Martin (Spain) 68 63 71

204 Ernie Els (South Africa) 68 67 69
Charl Schwartzel (South Africa) 67 69 68

205 Jacques Blaauw (South Africa) 71 68 66
Gareth Maybin (Britain) 68 70 67
Damien McGrane (Ireland) 67 70 68

206 Sion Bebb (Britain) 67 70 69
Ariel Canete (Argentina) 68 68 70
Darren Fichardt (South Africa) 67 72 67
Anders Hansen (Denmark) 68 70 68
Michael Lorenzo-Vera (France) 71 69 66

207 Shiv Kapur (India) 68 71 68
Edoardo Molinari (Italy) 66 69 72
Robert Rock (Britain) 69 68 70
Ulrich Van den Berg (South Africa) 64 72 71
Dawie Van der Walt (South Africa) 68 70 69

Martin traded at 1.7 earlier today, but he's now 4.2, with Els favourite at 3.6.
Report bigjoe December 12, 2009 3:03 PM GMT
Update after round 3 ... could have been better ... cold have been worse too :)

Bad news first... finch and Hoey drop away and got no chance now :(

But , despite a nervous finish, Pablo hangs onto a 2 shot lead at -14 :)

He already traded at 1.7 :0 .. but i did not lay off and let it run... not the best decision i ever made :(

I have layed off a tad more now though... layed 52 quid at 4.2 .... means i still win nearly 900 quid if pablo hangs on tomorrow .. but am guarenteed at least £150 profit if he does not ... so not a bad position to be in :)

Latst bet and updated book is:

Pablo Martin 4.2 £52.00 £218.40 £166.40
Ref: 9659109097 Bet placed: 15:53 12-Dec-09

Pablo + 877.99
REST + 150.10 :)

Happy to leave it like that , but may lay off the odd 77 quid in running tomorrow if pablo trades odd on again :)

Good Luck all :)
Report bigjoe December 12, 2009 3:09 PM GMT
did you lay off at 1.7 max ?
Report Max and Paddy December 12, 2009 5:33 PM GMT
No, joe :( I layed him :) at about 8 :( yesterday, then I layed him again :) at 4.2 :) after his second round and again at about 3 :D today.

I now get a nice three-figure amount :0 :D if Martin wins, and £20 :) if anyone else wins.
Report spider1 December 12, 2009 6:04 PM GMT
Unreal stuff big joe i dont know how you pick these 170 shots but in fairness plenty seem to cop. I remember big Angel Cabrera doing the biz for you last year. How much time do you spend researching your golf bets? also whats your job if you dont mind me asking. Keep up the good work!!
Report callysboy December 12, 2009 6:22 PM GMT
layed p martiin 1.85 for700. s0 now martin +2756. field +640, happy days and maybe really happy.
Report SwindonBoy December 13, 2009 1:20 AM GMT
cracking shout bigjoe win or lose!
Report thehoops December 13, 2009 10:23 AM GMT
congrats BJ
Report Test Match Matt December 13, 2009 12:04 PM GMT
1.15 :0 congrats joe
Report bigjoe December 13, 2009 12:10 PM GMT
Layed off 100 quid at 1.26 :D

Book Now

Pablo + 853.29
REST + 245.10

Report bigjoe December 13, 2009 12:13 PM GMT
Pablo Martin 1.26 £100.00 £126.00 £26.00
Ref: 9666108027 Bet placed: 13:08 13-Dec-09

Sorry forgot to post the trade :)
Report callysboy December 13, 2009 12:15 PM GMT
layed another 1000 at 1.19 u the man joe.
Report callysboy December 13, 2009 12:20 PM GMT
now martin +2566. rest +1640 happy christmas.
Report bigjoe December 13, 2009 12:22 PM GMT
OK not taking any chances.. layed off anthr 200 at 1.27 :D

Pablo Martin 1.27 £200.00 £254.00 £54.00
Ref: 9666301974 Bet placed: 13:19 13-Dec-09

Final book:

Pablo + 801.99
REST +435.10

That will do :D
Report the butterfly collector December 13, 2009 12:45 PM GMT
nice one joe. looked at this on wednesday an thought about doing it but then decided not to.
ah well theres always next week
Report Jason Bourne December 13, 2009 1:23 PM GMT
Jason**11 Dec 17:39
I'd be inclined to merely cancel the red on Martin and let the rest run, he's looking good this week.

This would have been the most profitable tactic as it turns out but you can't complain. Winning way to start the season, make it 2/2 next week.
Report bigjoe December 13, 2009 1:37 PM GMT

Great win for Pabloooooooooooo :)

Well done to those that followed me in this week... a great start to the season :)

BALANCE AFTR WEEK 1 .. +£ 801.99 :D
Report Jan1ne December 13, 2009 1:37 PM GMT
half potential winnings given away in poor trades
Report bigjoe December 13, 2009 1:38 PM GMT
True ... but was right to lay off .. at these prices i will be happy to retain just half my greens every week ;)
Report spider1 December 13, 2009 1:41 PM GMT
unreal stuff

big joe whats your job??
Report Smalltime Punter December 13, 2009 1:44 PM GMT
Awesome work Joe.

Overall, which do you do better on, cricket or golf? Am guessing it must be golf this year...
Report TwoTonTed December 13, 2009 1:53 PM GMT
top bombing Beejay :0 :D
Report Max and Paddy December 13, 2009 2:06 PM GMT
Great work, sir :D

I've had a tremendously profitable week :0 :) thanks to the two Twenty20 internationals ;) and now this :) I gave away a few quid :( by getting rid of my red :) but I don't give a fúck :D

I'll be paying a big premium charge on Wednesday :( but this was an unexpected bonus :D
Report saqqy December 13, 2009 2:23 PM GMT
Well done Big Joe, been following you for last few weeks, so, happy i kept the faith. Cheers!
Report fredderf December 13, 2009 2:27 PM GMT
nice1 joe, long may it continue. My bro's a bit gutted, :-) after following you for a few weeks at the end of last year, he decided not to carry on. lol. haha.
Report PJMASTER December 13, 2009 2:31 PM GMT
Great stuff Joe, well done mate. It's always wise to lock in some profit in those situations when you get the chance....players at those SPs are will more often fall back than hang on when they lead at halfway
Report johnlocke December 13, 2009 2:35 PM GMT
Congrats bigjoe :)

Finished with a nice +200, not bad for £2 stakes :)
Report bigjoe December 13, 2009 3:18 PM GMT
cheers everyone ... happy to have spread some xmas cheer :D

Max ... does this mean you let me off our hammers/ everton bet :D

Not getting too carried away though .. this really is a marathon not a sprint ... over 50 weeks i need to generate over 2k profit to end up in front .. so still another 1.2 k to find in next 49 weeks :0

Next up its the south african airways open starting next thursday .. hopefully another good week in store...look out for my bets sometime on wednesday morning ;)
Report bigjoe December 13, 2009 3:22 PM GMT
spider ...i work for a living :(
Report spider1 December 13, 2009 3:30 PM GMT
what job have you got though big joe? apologise if its a personal question

always enjoy your threads and cheer on your selections!! well done today mate
Report Troy Lighthouse December 13, 2009 3:54 PM GMT
Cheers bigjoe, I've been following your golf tips for a while. I was in for 2 quid, so delighted with that result. Thanks and well done.
Report smeagors December 13, 2009 5:12 PM GMT
he's an economist spyder .. well done bj .. you truly are santa not only in girth ;) .. hows the throat ?
Report Sir Denis Eton-Hogg December 13, 2009 5:30 PM GMT
bj is a gigolo - i thought everyone knew this
Report bigjoe December 13, 2009 5:46 PM GMT
not quite an economist smeags ...but work amongst them ... throat healing up nicely thanks :)
Report Max and Paddy December 13, 2009 6:18 PM GMT
bigjoe 13 Dec 16:18
Max ... does this mean you let me off our hammers/ everton bet

:0 :^0 :D

Sorry, but no :( :p
Report bigjoe December 13, 2009 8:35 PM GMT
:( oh ... i am sure you said in one event recently that if i tipped you a big winner you would call it quits :(
Report Max and Paddy December 13, 2009 8:45 PM GMT
I don't remember saying that! But certainly it was my intention to reduce the payment, just as you did in 2007.

Anyway, it's so long since we had the bet that £100 is now worth at least £110 ;)
Report fundamentalist December 13, 2009 9:23 PM GMT
well done BJ :D
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