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05 Dec 09 14:54
Date Joined: 22 Aug 03
| Topic/replies: 23 | Blogger: henryjames.'s blog
Have a look at stats of teams losing after scoring 400 in 1st innings

not even 1/100

I know England did, but no Warne now
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Report STEPTOES YARD December 5, 2009 2:58 PM GMT
Game moved on so much though

451 would often be achieved after Tea on day2 in past years and to get to a score of 600+ in reply would probably take game into final day before innings end.

If oz go well could have wi back in not that long into day4
Report henryjames. December 5, 2009 3:01 PM GMT
True different scoring rate now, still short IMO, This wicket last 5 days and AUS have average spin at best
Report tai671 December 5, 2009 3:05 PM GMT
Look at India v Sri Lanka, SL 393 first innings but India were well in front by the end of day 2 and look almost certain to win tomorrow. That said, I haven't seen a second of Aus v WI, but just making the point that 400 in the first innings by no means makes you safe these days.
Report mafeking December 5, 2009 3:06 PM GMT
550 first up has led to defeat twice in the last 5 years and the pitch does not remain true here. loads of 3rd and 4th innings scores in the 100s and 200s. west indies probably need 400 again to be safe.
Report henryjames. December 5, 2009 3:08 PM GMT
yes but after SL scored 393 India were not 1.55 were they ??
Report henryjames. December 5, 2009 3:09 PM GMT
mafeking - Warne
Report mafeking December 5, 2009 3:11 PM GMT
yep it's not a great oz bowling attack these days but would you trust the west indies to put a decent score on the board under pressure. oz should lead by 50 at least tonight.
Report tai671 December 5, 2009 3:13 PM GMT
Not straight away, but they were 1.3 by the end of day 2. Not followed Aus v WI, but they're 1.59/1.6 now and also were matched @ 2.16 for a fair sum.

The game so far looking at the scores has followed a fairly similar pattern, although Aus have scored more slowly. Not that I have any opinion on how it will go, but I just think the stating that 400 first innings means you don't lose looks a bit silly especially as it's likely to happen in the other game. (I know you could argue SL didn't get 400, but near enough and it would've made no difference if they'd got a few more).
Report Titan's Chlamydia Green Light December 5, 2009 3:15 PM GMT
aus will get 600+ probably declare at lunch on day 4, leaves WI about 4 sessions to bat out. it's interesting, ill give you that.
Report henryjames. December 5, 2009 3:16 PM GMT
tai, how many teams in last 5 years have lost after scoring 400 1st innings ??

Appreciate the WI factor
Report tai671 December 5, 2009 3:17 PM GMT
West Indies' away record doesn't fill you with confidence. I believe if you exclude Zimbabwe and Bangladesh, they've won one away Test match since 2000.

Good luck with it anyway, a competitive game is always a good thing.
Report tai671 December 5, 2009 3:18 PM GMT
Do you mean first match inning, or the first innings for either team??
Report Lix December 5, 2009 3:18 PM GMT
jeez, this is adelaide ffs! the two highest 1st inns defeats have happened here. WI score of 450 is below par. odds are pretty fair here.
Report henryjames. December 5, 2009 3:18 PM GMT
Im not saying they are going to Win ! im saying that 1/2 for AUS is short,

If AUS vs England say Draw would be 1.55 and AUS would be 8
Report tai671 December 5, 2009 3:20 PM GMT
Most of the other games away from home since 2000 are defeats. The point being that they often don't put up much of a fight if it starts going wrong in away Tests.
Report STEPTOES YARD December 5, 2009 3:21 PM GMT
Stick by my orginal post

the rate of run scoring means that 400 aint a safe score batting first any longer from a time position
Report henryjames. December 5, 2009 3:22 PM GMT
2 years ago in SA, West indies scored 425 in first innigs and the market had SA to win all they way to the end even when SA were chasing 400 in 4th innings

WI won the game
Report STEPTOES YARD December 5, 2009 3:25 PM GMT
Time will tell
Report Cuddy December 5, 2009 3:49 PM GMT
as usual, my brief euphoria - after the last wicket partnership - has been replaced by creeping, rising dread. 451 was way above par, we scored it very quickly and I make it that we'll probably have to bat at least 100 overs. I'll stop there before I start to cry.

Out of interest, what are the big 1.3x layers of Oz doing/have they done up to now?
Report fredderf December 5, 2009 3:56 PM GMT
extra run lines up....up to 800. lol.
Report cricnut December 5, 2009 3:59 PM GMT
LAYED AUSSIES AFTER DAY 1, but not over confident, but the fact that their no 10 scored good runs, tells me they ought to get 350 at least again. Aussie attack nowhere near as good these day, but who knows
Report mittheimp December 5, 2009 4:15 PM GMT
pitch would have to deteriate a lot to make this game interesting. As big Joe says - windies bat deep, think Rampaul confirmed that today. Cant see all of Gayle Barath and sarwan missing out again!
Report bigpoppapump December 5, 2009 4:18 PM GMT
draw's a good price
Report GoBallistic December 5, 2009 4:23 PM GMT
Windies need a good day today - can't just go through the motions and take the attitude that they'll bat out a draw regardless of what australia make
Report Green Beard December 5, 2009 4:24 PM GMT
agree with bigpop :0

yes aus may win, but getting on a team not to lose after scoring 450 in first dig at almost 3 is value bet which ever day

also think windies are capable, and think gayle will score big think he may be embarrassed at th grit shown by windies and not by himself and have something to owe the rest of the team in the second dig

fancy a very good 60-100 from him that will send the aus odds to about 3
Report henryjames. December 6, 2009 8:50 AM GMT
Report JustWinBaby December 6, 2009 8:52 AM GMT
This is the West Indies we are talking about, they are just as likely to collapse by tea tomorrow.
Report Hopes December 6, 2009 9:03 AM GMT
Aussie one bowler short ....who will take wks accept Hauritz
Report bombaclart December 6, 2009 9:11 AM GMT
aussies chasing anything above 250 on this wicket day 5 will be in for an interesting time. it will be flip flop heaven too

an intersting test this one

lay the aussies all day here, their price will go at least a couple of points higher for sure at some stage
Report smeagors December 6, 2009 11:21 AM GMT
good call HJ ;)
Report Sterling Morrison December 7, 2009 8:32 AM GMT
Prescient GB!
Report Kelly December 7, 2009 10:22 AM GMT
Saw most of West Indies second innings last night . Seemed to be batting NOT to lose as against winning .

Tonight's first few overs will be interesting , as if WI survive 10 overs or get 30 plus runs , Aussies will find it hard to win .

West Indies dont deserve to lose whatever way it works out . Very disciplined knock by Gayle .
Report mittheimp December 7, 2009 10:24 AM GMT
Gayle bats for 10 overs tomorrow Windies will be safe -
Report Birchola December 7, 2009 10:44 AM GMT
10 overs is a long time when 8 down. I can't see them surviving that long.
Report dougydougy. December 7, 2009 10:57 AM GMT
Be great if they could get another 50 runs, but can't see it myself. think the aussies natural arrogant nature means they'll try and chase anything upto 350, will be laying the draw once ponting gets to the wicket. He finds it almost impossible to occupy the crease without scoring.
Report bigpoppapump December 9, 2009 9:39 PM GMT
all about knowing who to follow, this forum.
Report Deadly Earnest December 9, 2009 11:05 PM GMT
I know, glad you talked me around from thinking SL were a better batting, bowling and fielding team than India after the first test between them. I don't know what I was ever thinking now. ;)
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