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bigjoe
03 Dec 09 12:12
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Date Joined: 03 Aug 05
| Topic/replies: 3,997 | Blogger: bigjoe's blog
Ok so not the best of calls by me in the last test :( :(

But i have picked myself up... dusted myself down ... and am back for more :D ... i fully expect the windies to do the same :D

On the face of it, after the dominant win in brissy, 1.32 seems a fair price :0 .. BUT .. faces can be deceptive :( .... and i think this time the smiles will return to faces windies cricket :)

Not cos they going to improve suddenly .. not cos the aussies are gonna weaken sudenly .. but cos this test is all going to be about the pitch at the addelaide oval.

Even though reports suggest there maybe some grass left on it this time.. this pitch, along with sydney remains one of the flattest in Australia.

This pitch will prove to be a good leveller ... i will not be surprised....indeed i will not be shocked :0 ..... i will be ASTOUNDED if windies batting capitulates twice in this test ;)

Sarwan could be back.... chanders and Gayle will not BOTHY fail in BOTH innings again on this tour ..... batting all the way down to ramdin .... this windies batting is capable on this type of pitch of scoring 800 + runs in 2 innings ;)

Aussies of course also capable od scoring high.. and indeed i am expecting a high scoring game that will go all the way to day 5 .

Call me silly if you like... but i believe the draw SHOULD be fav here .. Aussies 2nd best and windies rightly outsiders :)

But one thing you cannot rule out is another arrogant declaration by Ponting :0 .. i reckon if he tries it this time, he could get bitten .. and so i suggest keeping a windies win onside ;)

At the purple place I managed to lay aussies at 1.28 and topped up a couple of quid on windies at 17.5 .... i believe this is OUTSTANDING value on this pitch... believe me ;)

I suggest you join me in laying the aussies not only till the cows come home... but till those cows have been milked , gone to bed for the night and are back in the pastures next morning :D

Windies got hammerec last test .. they were hurt by that... gayle and chanders feel they got a point to prove.... sarwan returning could be massive boost ... windies will this time excel with the bat.... this time i think some huffing and puffing on a batters dream ppitch by the aussie bowling is inevitable .... this time windies will score 450+ in 1st innings at least and that draw will indeed become the fav sooner rather then later ;)

Good Luck :)

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Replies: 116
By:
Mr. Moustache
When: 03 Dec 09 12:27
Yep, deeeeeeeep batting.
By:
mittheimp
When: 03 Dec 09 12:38
and hifflenhouse is out - and windies should have aclimatised by now.

depends on the toss though - windies bat first i say draw
aussies bat and demoralise windies then maybe a double collpase is possible again.
By:
smeagors
When: 03 Dec 09 12:39
bj on the crest of a wave .. however draw fav over oz seems bit ott imo .. besides he can't really believe it as there are only a paltry 17 smileys employed .. ;)
By:
bigjoe
When: 03 Dec 09 12:46
Smeagors.. you should no by now that when i say "SHOULD" i do not mean "should" ..i mean "SHOULD" :D

In other words..i am happy that its NOT fav as i think it "SHOULD BE FAV" for book keeping puposes ;)
By:
Smalltime Punter
When: 03 Dec 09 12:55
Quite interesting stuff here:

http://www.cricinfo.com/ausvwi09/content/current/story/437779.html

Despite the flat pitch there's only been 1 draw at Adelaide since 2000, but I think the key stat is the massive discrepancy between the average runs per wicket in the 3rd innings compared with the first two - 1st inns 48.3, 2nd inns 46.5, 3rd inns 23.0.

Suggests that a draw back is a good early move, but with a view to laying off late on day 3.

Needs WI to bat first (and bat well) in order to work best.
By:
West Coast Eagles
When: 03 Dec 09 12:58
bollinger is about the same equivlanet replacement for Hilfenhaus

Adelaide oval offers short boundaries for anything on the offside and onside, distance wise they are the shortest boundaries for those shots.

SHots going down the ground, usually are longer at the Adelaide Oval.

Think 1.32 a good lay on Aussies personally, but for me i would rather see West Indies bat first, then I will Lay that.

Toss is important. Saw Chris Gayle in the media today, when asked what his decision at the toss will be tommorow, said he 'bat.....I dont like running around fielding"

Suprinsgly Gayle has never heard of Bollinger or seen him. Might be a secret weapon for Aussies tommorow.


If betfair put up session runs, will also look to play this market, expect a high scoring ground on a flat deck.

West Indies at Adelaide Oval
Tests played 13: Australia won 5; West Indies won 5; 3 draws
Australia have won the past three Tests against West Indies at Adelaide Oval.
West Indies won four of the five Tests at Adelaide Oval between 1979-1980 and 1992-1993, with one draw.
By:
West Coast Eagles
When: 03 Dec 09 13:03
also to be honest west indies batting really does fall after 7, the tail does not wag that well in my opinion.

WIndies will make 1-2 changes , Rampaul out for Darren Sammy and Gavin Tonge looks a cert to play.

Think Sammy has to play IMO, Ive said this before but Rampaul is a T20/ODI bowler NOT a Test bowler.
By:
Lix
When: 03 Dec 09 17:53
I trust we're all on the draw back-to-lay here ? :D
By:
lbw
When: 03 Dec 09 17:54
how high can this Australian runs line be?
they declared at 480 last time
By:
fundamentalist
When: 03 Dec 09 17:55
declaration was pitch/situation related, wouldnt be surprised to see them go on to 550 if have the option this time
By:
Lix
When: 03 Dec 09 18:06
CBL go 480 for Aus runs and 300 is 8/11 for WI runs so the even money line is probably 325ish.

300+ for WI at 8/11 aint a bad bet imo if this is the usual Adelaide featherbed . WI likely to have their strongest batting line up for the past 10 years if Sarwan and Sammy play while Gayle's tormentor Hilfy isnt playing.
By:
Lix
When: 03 Dec 09 18:09
Also done Chanders PP over 73.5

Pitch should suit him . Might even take a catch :)
By:
smeagors
When: 03 Dec 09 18:09
how does their bowling line up shape up .. ?
By:
Injera
When: 03 Dec 09 18:28
I like the look of Bollinger. But let's hope this test lasts a bit longer than the first..
By:
s.s
When: 03 Dec 09 18:36
why are aus 1.36 last time 1.29 draw 4.9 last time 6
By:
brentford
When: 03 Dec 09 18:43
Adelaide wicket usually quite placid in recent years, quite a slow deck not much movement or spin (until very late) wheras Brisbane had tended to be more bowler friendly with pace and bounce..

If (big IF) Windies can get a draw anyway (non weather) it would be fav to be @ Adelaide.
By:
brentford
When: 03 Dec 09 18:43
*anywhere
By:
smeagors
When: 03 Dec 09 18:52
jeezuz .. sums up the state of WI ckt when people are talking about which ground they might scratch a draw .. :( .. will we ever see in our lifetime a more fearsome bowling line up than the windies of the 70's/80's .. i fear not .. to quote someone on here .. dibbly dobbly is what you need these days .. not huff'n'puff .. nor pure speed it seems .. does'nt suit T20 ..
By:
takethestand
When: 03 Dec 09 19:54
:) ;) :(

:x :^0
By:
Girls aloud lezzer scrum
When: 03 Dec 09 20:10
9/2 the draw with totte looks big
By:
Innocent Bystander
When: 03 Dec 09 20:39
Sarwan fit and plays
By:
d13phe
When: 03 Dec 09 20:54
they need chanders to get going again to have a hope

im going for 4 days this time
By:
Lies, DamnLies, and Statistics
When: 03 Dec 09 21:08
re chanderpaul, i know he never looks pretty, but i haven't seen a top-class batsman look as bad as he did in brisbane for a LONG time...

he made 4 runs in about 20 balls, his dismissals were schoolboy stuff...i think anyone counting on him to make their draw trade/back worthwhile are dreaming...

p.s. a factor no-one has mentioned so far are the referrals... gayle when talking about his said he was an important player, and he used the referral in case the video showed something...i assume the same goes for chanderpaul...incredibly selfish stuff...draw backers will be hoping they don't do something similar before another player is given out caught off the pad or lbw off the bat...
By:
booksseller
When: 03 Dec 09 22:11
big joe the wicket is only relevant if the batsmen have the temperament to occupy the crease - whilst chanderpaul has done this with aplomb in recent years the rest of the sorry bunch that vat for the windies these days do not have the collective desire to do so

your suggestion that draw should be fav is laughable
By:
Johnny Fontaine
When: 03 Dec 09 22:32
Tossing news ?
By:
Dylan1975
When: 03 Dec 09 22:34
Windies bat
By:
Johnny Fontaine
When: 03 Dec 09 22:35
muchas gracias
By:
brentford
When: 03 Dec 09 22:37
Australia: 1 Simon Katich, 2 Shane Watson, 3 Ricky Ponting*, 4 Michael Hussey, 5 Michael Clarke, 6 Marcus North, 7 Brad Haddin (wk), 8 Mitchell Johnson, 9 Nathan Hauritz, 10 Peter Siddle, 11 Doug Bollinger.

West Indies: 1 Chris Gayle*, 2 Adrian Barath, 3 Ramnaresh Sarwan, 4 Shivnarine Chanderpaul, 5 Dwayne Bravo, 6 Brendan Nash, 7 Denesh Ramdin (wk), 8 Darren Sammy, 9 Sulieman Benn, 10 Kemar Roach, 11 Ravi Rampaul.
By:
Paddyodoors
When: 03 Dec 09 22:37
Ive been to Adelaide last 15 years for this test, back to when it used to be the Australia Day test - watched some of THE great batting teams and PLENTY of runs.....can;t recall many draws at all.....
the point? the Windies could not possibly hold on for 5 days....
By:
Johnny Fontaine
When: 03 Dec 09 22:37
Will watch first session now. Should get someprice movement if the convicts don't strike with the new cherry
By:
brentford
When: 03 Dec 09 22:41
Windies bowling looking very toothless with Taylor (as well as Edwards) missing..

should be a health warning on selling OZ runs
By:
TopTier
When: 03 Dec 09 22:42
4.8-5.0 draw after WIs win the toss. Looks a great back to start even with the obvious risk it might blow up early. Lets see a half intelligent approach to the new ball and steadily build a HUGE WIs 1st innings score. :-)
By:
Smalltime Punter
When: 03 Dec 09 22:47
Suppose WI bat well and are about 300 for 3 or 4 at the close - what do people think the prices would be then?
By:
Johnny Fontaine
When: 03 Dec 09 22:50
Enough of this pre-chat thread now. Official thread is up.
By:
TopTier
When: 03 Dec 09 22:53
Considering WIs bowling with 300-3 1.8, 300-4 2.3 for draw imo. Also the fear of WIs 2nd innings collapse. Market won't believe Aus can lose this until they are 8 down needing 200 with 2 sessions to go.
By:
bigjoe
When: 04 Dec 09 07:46
Thats a but better for the windies :D

336-6 .... Aussie price heading out.. draw and windies prices coming in .. so taking shape i reckon ;)

I said in opening post that fundimentally, on this pitch i fancied windies to score 800 in their 2 innings :0 .. well they have another 14 wickets to get another 464 runs ... i reckon they on course ;)
It will take them 8 sessions to get those 800 runs... leaving aussies 7 sessions to try and force a win :0 .. but at 1-0 up and batting last on here ..i don't think they will be taking too many risks to try and win in 7 sessions ;)

I said draw should be fav...its heading in the right direction... and its only a matter of time before the flip flop between the draw and aussie price occurs ;)

Dont rule out a windies win though.. they got the runs on the board..if they can get near 400 in 1st innings and restrict aussies to less then 500 in their first innings.. then with aussies batting last ... windies could be the main opposition to the draw on day 5 ;)

Good Luck all :)
By:
bigjoe
When: 04 Dec 09 14:17
Ok trying to make sense of the latest prices ?:|

Ausies 1.6 :0 ... windies 9.0 ... toooooooooooooo much of a differential if you ask me ;)

I have already layed aussies at 1.28 and topped up at 17.5 on windies prematch .. so will not be topping up more .. but foir those that new to the match, even this 1.6 on aussies and 9.0 is worth opposing and backing repectively :)

With windies already having 336 runs on the board .. the market is ASSUMNING that they wont score 400+ .....the market is also ASSUMING an aussie score of 450 + ... well maybe the aussies will score 450+ .. but 1.6 to do it ... Dont make me laugh :^0

Second thing the market is ASSUMING is that the aussies will not be effected by having to bat lasyt on this pitch :) .. well i got news for the markets... previous history here shows that whilst pitch plays ok for 4 days... it usually goes funny in last 2 sessions with some big collapses in past :0

I am saying simply this.... EVEN if the market assumption is right about aussies scoring 450+ and windies less then 400 ... i say that with aussies batting last a lead for them of under a 100 will, IN my book at least ;) .. make it an even steven game as that lead will be offset by the fact assies will have to bat last :0

IF aussies get lead of 100 ... i still fancy windies to score minum of 350 in 2nd innings as batting on days 3 and 4 will still be relatively easy ... a target of 250 for aussies on last day should see windies price a lot lot lower then 9.0 ;)

Imo, the most likely scenario from here is this:

Windies 420-450 all out
Aussies 450 MAXIMUM
Windies 350 +
Aussies trying desperatly on day 5 to save theior 1-0 series lead on day 5 chasing over 300 in a day to win ;)

Work around those scenarios and you wont go far wrong imo ;)

Good Luck :)
By:
Green Beard
When: 04 Dec 09 14:38
alot of your assumptions bigjoe are based on windies and aussies having the same capability

thier bowling is one of the worst ive ever seen
By:
fundamentalist
When: 04 Dec 09 14:40
BJ, that 200 you owe me, fancy double or quits on aussies over/under 450?
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