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Richard LL
06 Dec 09 11:53
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Date Joined: 10 Jan 02
| Topic/replies: 4,992 | Blogger: Richard LL's blog
I have started a thread to highlight the above, this is the thread, thank you.
Pause Switch to Standard View Aus at 6/4 is a terrible price IMO
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Report mittheimp December 6, 2009 11:55 AM GMT
should be shorter?
Report Lix December 6, 2009 12:04 PM GMT
some pretty low 3rd inns scores here. Dont trust the WI enough to lay this.
Report Johnny Fontaine December 6, 2009 12:17 PM GMT
Think its a good lay myself Lix. Price will go out sharpish first hour if nowt happens for Oz
Report Titan's Chlamydia Green Light December 6, 2009 12:21 PM GMT
2 innings shoot-out now, WI 35/0 with 180 overs left assuming no bad weather.

Think WI will be all out for about 370 morning day 5, this peters out into a draw.

the draw will trade miles lower, it's the only trade to be on imo.
Report ChocIce December 6, 2009 12:32 PM GMT
Personally think WI have a much better than 14% chance of winning. Day 5 will be very hard to score on this track. Think Hauritz will do well tomorrow as well though.
Report mittheimp December 6, 2009 12:34 PM GMT
will be the true test of Hauritz - most of the top WI bats play spin pretty well though.
Report Yuvraj Singh December 6, 2009 12:36 PM GMT
not watched any of this as yet. can anyone tell me if the pitch is turning please?
Report Deadly Earnest December 6, 2009 12:38 PM GMT
Australia will likely only have to bat 80 overs to draw or win the game. Roach and Benn got through a lot of work days 2 and 3 so they may not be too fresh come day 5.

I just don't see WI bowling Australia out in 80 odd overs unless Australia got into deep trouble going after a big run rate to win, and I doubt they carry that plan on too deeply into their order.

With the rain forecast as well I just cannot see the WI win, and I doubt the pitch gets really tough late on.
Report Deadly Earnest December 6, 2009 12:40 PM GMT
There was good turn and bounce there for Benn at times Yuvraj, but by no means lethal.
Report mittheimp December 6, 2009 12:42 PM GMT
more than likely no rain - forcast says slight risk of a shower tomorrow afternoon only.
Report Yuvraj Singh December 6, 2009 12:43 PM GMT
thanks deadly
Report Deadly Earnest December 6, 2009 12:44 PM GMT
Ok, I saw a forecast yesterday that said afternoon and evening rain tomorrow and morning rain day 5. I suppose with time being able to be added we cannot take lost time as a given from that but even 10-20 overs lost would be significant now and if the match consisted of say only another 150 overs then the result will take a power of forcing by either team to come into play.
Report Deadly Earnest December 6, 2009 12:48 PM GMT
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDS10034.shtml

Actually, Mit has read this correctly, only says light afternoon showers so you have to doubt his will be significant for day 4.
Report Deadly Earnest December 6, 2009 12:54 PM GMT
Same site advising morning rain day 5 but this might be unlikely to cost overs as well if stops any time before midday, so we should be factoring in 180 overs from here really. WI probably need to bat 100 of those and get 3 rpo at least before the draw starts to dominate proceedings here. No reason WI cannot do that though, and they did pick a draw seeking xi here really.
Report mittheimp December 6, 2009 12:56 PM GMT
depends who bats those overs - Nash and Chanderpaul the only slow scorers in the team. If Gayle bats 20 overs + tomorrow then the strike rate will be decent.
Report Deadly Earnest December 6, 2009 1:09 PM GMT
Gayle can drop anchor with the best of them when so motivated Mit.

Looks like good chases are not unknown to win here, Clem Hill, Trumper and Trumble did brilliantly for the Great Southern Landers. The overrated SF Barnes took his leave after 7 fruitless overs, no doubt because it wasn't one of the doctored greentops he made his unearned reputation on.

http://www.cricinfo.com/ci/engine/match/62462.html
Report Deadly Earnest December 6, 2009 1:12 PM GMT
http://www.cricinfo.com/ci/engine/match/249223.html

Also, in that match from 2005, Aussies got 168 at 5.6 rpo for the loss of 4 wickets. They really will have some batting to do here to save this match the WI, but once the chase gets much tougher than around 330 from 80 overs it might be in the too hard basket for Australia.
Report Jan1ne December 6, 2009 2:52 PM GMT
Deadly Earnest 06 Dec 13:38

I just don't see WI bowling Australia out in 80 odd overs


83 was enough first dig :|
Report bigpoppapump December 6, 2009 2:53 PM GMT
aus batted more than 120 overs first up, at the very slow 3.23 rpo.
Report Innocent Bystander December 6, 2009 2:57 PM GMT
3.23? Do international teams bat that slowly anymore? What would Australia do?
Report bigpoppapump December 6, 2009 3:02 PM GMT
may have done them a disservice, might have been 3.34.

whatever - was slower than WI, and as in the English summer Aus being more conservative than the oppo. Probably not a pure choice - more related to their lack of control in the field [the "best" bowler is the very wild Mitchell Johnson] and poor spin options. Clearly Hussey is extremely selfish. Ponting less so. Watson gets on with it, but as he doesnt play straight he continues to flatter to deceive. Obviously not easy versus a tall spinner like Benn on a bouncy deck, so overall not going to "blame" aus for their dull/conservative/boring approach. I suppose they are just a poor side and the so called conveyor belt of talent was just a myth. clearly, that wouldn't be the first myth we've had to listen to in relation to Australia 3.3

When does England 4.0's Winter Test Series start? Roll on the exciting teams imo.
Report Deadly Earnest December 6, 2009 3:21 PM GMT
Intriguing ground analysis here. Visiting teams have a long history of going much lower in their 2nd innings, though mostly at the hands of McGrath, Warne, Lee, Gillespie etc and after chasing leather around the park for 160 odd overs. Also has been some quite weak Nz and Wi batting lineups but the same has held true for stronger Indian and South African batting lineups.

Certain other indicators saying WI should go about as well in the 2nd innings as the first here or maybe just a little slower and lower score.

A lot of the visiiting team 2nd innings collapses have been off decent starts of around 50-1 or similar.

It is just a matter of whether the oz bowling is good enough here to reduce a decent and deep wi batting lineup to that type of score in the 150-250 range that would make Australia good things to win this.

Deadly Earnest will now have an afternoon nap whilst he contemplates this question.

Johnson, Siddle?, Bollinger, Hauritz and Watson, maybe North, head to head with Gayle, Barath, Sarwan, Shiv, Nash, Bravo, Ramdin, Sammy, Benn, Roachford and Rampaul on a 4th day Adelaide wicket.....

My pre sleep thoughts are Wi score 330ish par here at around 2.7-2.8 rpo which would leave Australia around 340 to get from maybe 65-70 overs. We should see a stalemate from there.
Report Deadly Earnest December 6, 2009 3:25 PM GMT
Seems Master Pump is pretty close to committing himself to an England away Ashes victory in 2010/11.

My pick is Australia for those interested. ;)
Report bigpoppapump December 6, 2009 3:25 PM GMT
if England score at 4.0 and aus score at 3.3 then england will be comfortable winners.
Report cricnut December 6, 2009 3:56 PM GMT
laid Aussies at 1.6 and don't want to change thange that position, this is a very average aussie attack
Report Ekbalco December 6, 2009 3:59 PM GMT
Beautifully poised - my call is WIndiesn all out in 70-75 overs leaving Oz 245 - 265 to win.
Oz win.
Report Green Beard December 6, 2009 4:04 PM GMT
my call is gayle to score a century, gayle top bat, and windies to get a draw
Report Green Beard December 6, 2009 4:08 PM GMT
and said it all test, aussie price has always had lots of assumptions factored in, and still has a factored poor innings 2nd time round for windies . . .

but 2.6 isnt that bad, aussies still in with a good shout of winning this, but give it 20 mins and you can get 3.2 or so in the morning
Report West Coast Eagles December 6, 2009 5:33 PM GMT
if Gayle can stay at the crease for around 25 overs tommorow, you can just about rule an Aussie win out here. I dont think we will see a batting collapse on this wicket

morning session is going to be the crucial one tommorow. AUssies will be looking for at least 3 wickets, which is more than possible here, while the windies will be looking to consolidate from their good start.
Report West Coast Eagles December 6, 2009 5:36 PM GMT
Another sub-par test pitch, Adelaide seems to make some good pitches at times but absolute stinkers far too often, Frankenstein couldn't get any life out of this pitch, it is dead Jim.
Report West Coast Eagles December 6, 2009 5:38 PM GMT
we might be in a position later in the day , where West Indies if 250 runs ahead, might be looking to switch and get fast runs, who knows they may went to send the Aussies into bat with 3-4 overs. (which I see as a win win situation for them)

Its clear that for me, they will need more than 90.0 overs or so to get the win here. their bowling attack isnt good enough to bowl them out in under a day
Report mafeking December 6, 2009 5:40 PM GMT
WCE, there's been about 1 draw in the last 15 years. flat early on for sure but no one would be the least bit surprised if the windies fold like a pack of cards tomorrow.
Report H99 December 6, 2009 5:52 PM GMT
what time kick off tonight ?
Report henryjames. December 6, 2009 6:07 PM GMT
said the same yesterday lucy lucy
Report Richard LL December 6, 2009 6:17 PM GMT
indeed HJ, aint seen you around for a while, you been busy?
Report ChocIce December 6, 2009 6:26 PM GMT
Windies took the last 9 wickets for 265 runs on Day 3. Pitch has bounce and is taking spin. If Aussies haven't the runs knocked off in 80 overs, think they will be bowled out. Anything over 300 on Day 5 will not be chased IMO. Aussies always agressive in chases as well, rarely settle for a draw. Actually think windies will do well to get 300. This venue is one of the best for Test cricket, match always quickens up in the second half.
Report henryjames. December 6, 2009 6:31 PM GMT
All good points Choc, think all 3 results more than, WI value really.

Still play small Lucy was half hoping you would still be around, only name I regognise amongst the bull*sh*t
Report ChocIce December 6, 2009 6:35 PM GMT
Any news on Siddle, that will be crucial really.
Report Girls aloud lezzer scrum December 6, 2009 6:38 PM GMT
He's got a bit of tightness in one of his hamstrings," Hussey said.

"But I think it was just more precautionary, leave him out of it tonight so his leg has got another 12 hours or so to give it a good go tomorrow.

"I'm pretty confident that he'll be out there tomorrow for us."
Report ChocIce December 6, 2009 7:04 PM GMT
Cheers, couldn't find anything about it. Hopefully there won't be any rain to spoil things
Report golfjudge December 6, 2009 7:16 PM GMT
I think selling Windies runs at 310 is an amazing value spread bet. As ChocIce pointed out, the pitch was considerably harder yesterday, and isn't going to get any easier. The last time that total was beaten at Adelaide was in 1995, and then it was only 328. As they need to win the match, Windies should be inclined to set an attacking declaration, which would be further affected by any short weather delays.

Plus, Windies are hardly reliable. They scored below 250 in both innings at Brisbane, and could quite plausibly be bowled out very cheaply. I can't see any real downside to this spread bet.
Report West Coast Eagles December 6, 2009 7:22 PM GMT
the line betting for the West Indies first innings was under over 299.5 runs

so I think you have to assume line here for the windies will be around the same mark, slightly less, maybe looking at 270-290.

I agree if you can get evens , for under 310 on 2nd innings runs its a good bet.
Report golfjudge December 6, 2009 7:41 PM GMT
You can get under 316 with Paddys, or SJ, but I reckon the spread bet is better value because a declaration slightly above the line is also possible.
Report Lix December 6, 2009 7:51 PM GMT
didnt see any of the action yesterday but saw the wkts on SSN.

Looked to me like most of the Aus wkts were gifted away rather than good bowling/pitch misbehaving.
Report Lix December 6, 2009 7:53 PM GMT
what's Gayle's track record with Declarations? Attacking or Negative?

Does he even have a track record?? :^0
Report West Coast Eagles December 6, 2009 8:02 PM GMT
just remember west indies need to win, but i dont think they will put in a 'friendly' dec here.

Aussies are really an attacking side (dont take much notice of the 1st innings scoring at around 3.20 runs per over). If Aussies see a victory target, they will go for it, its their natural way of playing the game. I coudlnt ever imagine an Aussie side thinking of 'saving a game' for a draw.

Gayle has to give himself time to bowl them out but must also put the runs on the board too.....heck even the Aussies might have a go at the target if its around 4.50-5.00 per over.
Report Titan's Chlamydia Green Light December 6, 2009 8:03 PM GMT
West Indies will not declare at anything under 400, and that would probably have to be leaving aus 90 overs or less, highly unlikely
Report Green Beard December 6, 2009 8:18 PM GMT
the team have put in a great effort, and if they are realistic, a draw faught for at australias bastion of adelaide wuld do better for this team than putting in a hopeful decleration and losing

personally think windies look a different outfit this test, think theyll do well today
Report Lix December 6, 2009 8:18 PM GMT
would like the market to overestimate Aussie attacking instincts and have Aus under 2/1 to chase 320-330. could easily happen as people get into 'one-day' thinking..
Report Asparagus Man December 6, 2009 8:25 PM GMT
I agree WI will not give a friendly declaration.

I think they will be all out late in the day - setting Oz about 320 - which will be fascinating.
Report Titan's Chlamydia Green Light December 6, 2009 8:27 PM GMT
lix...2.7 for aus to chase 320 in 90 overs not a fair price?
Report cricnut December 6, 2009 8:35 PM GMT
320 in 90 overs would not take that much getting would it, not in this day and age, but of course wickets falling or not would decide that
Report oitoitoi December 6, 2009 8:37 PM GMT
would absolutely love to see Oz set 300+ on the last day, and for Kemar Roach to run through them like Taylor did to England.
Report Guernsey Sunbed December 6, 2009 8:44 PM GMT
Hi Chaps,

Any up to date news on the weather ?

That could have the biggest say of all in this.
Report Bernie Larkham December 6, 2009 8:48 PM GMT
From the BOM -
Forecast for Monday
Cloud increasing during the day with a light shower or two developing late
afternoon, becoming light rain late evening. Warm with light easterly winds
turning moderate south to southwesterly during the morning.

I dont think we will lose much to the weather. Fascinating couple of days and for Test cricket I would love to see WI pull off a shock but not sure they can. Could be a classic, tie anyone ;)
Report oitoitoi December 6, 2009 8:51 PM GMT
Would be epic if the windies took it, would love to see the oz media reaction after the absolute railing they gave WI after the 1st test. They might just pretend it never happened like they did when they lost to Zimbabwe in the WT20.
Report Guernsey Sunbed December 6, 2009 8:52 PM GMT
Bernie,

Thanks for that.

Match really is delicately poised with so many different scenarios possible.

With WIndies you just never know. Sometimes very very good, other times atrocious
Report Bernie Larkham December 6, 2009 9:01 PM GMT
If you were the WI and got off to a decent start and lost say just one wicket in the morning you would have to look to win the match. The series would still be there for the taking which would be massive.

What has Gayle been like in setting decs? He is an aggressive player but is he an aggressive skip?
Report Joel December 6, 2009 9:08 PM GMT
The word is Siddle may not be able to bowl at all today
Report Guernsey Sunbed December 6, 2009 9:20 PM GMT
Gayle has only one way to play when he bats. Full of agression.

A good start and Windies have a real shout here.

This game is so well balanced.
Report Lix December 6, 2009 9:37 PM GMT
I assure you Gayle can block away with the best of em having watched him vs England in the carribean earlier this year.

Had £250 on him on a series overs bet. Going into the last inns of the series I needed 6 runs for it to cop. He got injured and had to bat at 8.

Made 4 from 42 balls :| :_|
Report beagel 3 December 6, 2009 9:40 PM GMT
joel, what % chance do you think siddle can bowl at all please?
Report Joel December 6, 2009 9:43 PM GMT
Dont have a %, but he has tightness in his hamstring, not sure if they would want to risk him tbh, just heard on the radio he was in doubt.
Report Titan's Chlamydia Green Light December 6, 2009 9:48 PM GMT
If you were the WI and got off to a decent start and lost say just one wicket in the morning you would have to look to win the match. The series would still be there for the taking which would be massive.

What has Gayle been like in setting decs? He is an aggressive player but is he an aggressive skip?


----------

my wild guess is that he has never ever set a declaration as WI captain.

i think that backing the draw and taking west indies as cover is the trade for tonight - for my money on the draw you're getting 2.1 on WI batting 100 overs (= min 320) which should be GSM draw or at least very very low on the draw), I think aus will hit double figures tonight and i dont want anything to do with them...mileage is surely in the draw with chanderpaul and nash loving this type of scenario and both in nick.

i think this test will be a tight-ish draw, i think that 2+ is big value on it.
Report beagel 3 December 6, 2009 9:49 PM GMT
thanks, if anyone has any other sources pls share them. i think if siddle plays then the draw is too short and windies runs quotes far too high, echoing someone earlier on this thread who suggested selling at 310. worth 285 for me if siddle is fully fit.
Report West Coast Eagles December 6, 2009 9:52 PM GMT
http://www.foxsports.com.au/story/0,8659,26449177-5018870,00.html


Siddle may field today, doesnt mention anything whether he will bowl.
Report Lix December 6, 2009 9:52 PM GMT
Draw big if Siddle out imo. Watson bowling 15+ overs of pies will blow the Aus price off the map.
Report West Coast Eagles December 6, 2009 9:54 PM GMT
Watching Mitchell Johnson bowling with a new ball is like watching a spider struggling in the toilet. You just know there's no hope. I'm not entirely sure Johnson knows what the hell he's doing, he just runs in and lets the ball go, the seam is wobbling all over the place, and no rhyme or reason for his line or length. Worst user of the new ball I've seen.

The West Indies have wanted to win this Test far more than the Australians and unless they lift their intensity at least 50%, the Windies will have Kangaroo's for dinner.
Report Titan's Chlamydia Green Light December 6, 2009 10:01 PM GMT
moment i see siddle not playing = mortgage job lay aus
Report West Coast Eagles December 6, 2009 10:04 PM GMT
hmm rain not expected to fall until 8pm onwards, so I think we can rule out rain affecting day 4
Report Boogley December 6, 2009 10:15 PM GMT
if mr benn has his cricket outfit on for the final day i think windies are a gift, for today though aussie lay is the bet
Report Ernesto December 6, 2009 10:17 PM GMT
is this on ABC radio online at all.

Can't find it.
Report West Coast Eagles December 6, 2009 10:19 PM GMT
i know its on ABC Radio in Australia
Report Ernesto December 6, 2009 10:24 PM GMT
Might just have found it WCE. Cheers
Report Asparagus Man December 6, 2009 10:27 PM GMT
What's the lowest WI can go here chaps before start taking Aus wickets? Maybe around 4.0?
Report West Coast Eagles December 6, 2009 10:30 PM GMT
i reckon Windies can go lowest around 4.00 as well..........
Report jinx December 6, 2009 10:31 PM GMT
far shorter imo
Report beagel 3 December 6, 2009 10:32 PM GMT
i think all out or declare 8 or 9 down scoring 300 from 80 overs would leave them at around 9/4 with aus needing to bat half hour tonight.
Report Asparagus Man December 6, 2009 10:41 PM GMT
Best case for WI backers is obviously quick scoring.

Could be interesting later pricing later in the day as WI should be shorter setting say 300 with Oz 95 overs to get them (more or less taking the draw out), than say 360 off 80.
Report Richard LL December 6, 2009 10:45 PM GMT
I was thinking bottom price for WI 4.5ish, but I don't think we're gonna get the fast scoring others envisage.
Report Asparagus Man December 6, 2009 11:05 PM GMT
5.3 already :0
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