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Mr. Moustache
01 Dec 09 16:38
Date Joined: 14 Feb 06
| Topic/replies: 1,152 | Blogger: Mr. Moustache's blog
On sporting indecks, im a seller at 97. Any thoughts?
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Report fundamentalist December 1, 2009 5:02 PM GMT
strikes me as a leap of faith in believing what is being said about the pitch. these are the 2 sides in world cricket you dont want to be opposing in ton-ups due to the number in both sides who when they make tons often convert them to very big ones. if you believe what is being said about the pitch then theres better options for me
Report hazardous December 1, 2009 11:18 PM GMT
with players like sehwag or dilshan who have the capability of going very large due to the high % of boundries they hit thus being very energy eficient allowing them to make HUGE scores. Then players like jaywardene who are mentally and physically adapt to playing big long innings.
I would say it would only be a bet if you can be absolutley sure that batting is going to be at least 50 % harder than in normal circs . Even then It would be ballsy.
Report Sweatychris December 2, 2009 2:34 AM GMT
you could have sold elsewhere at 104
Report Lix December 2, 2009 3:51 AM GMT
Potentially horrific for sellers here :0
Report Lix December 2, 2009 5:16 AM GMT
or not! :| :0
Report Lix December 3, 2009 7:45 AM GMT
Never take on Sehwag in India :0
Report Baker Boy December 3, 2009 8:06 AM GMT
Mr M, knowing SI i'm sure this is a market that you cant trade out of in running (???), in which case, i really hope things change soon for you.
Report hazardous December 3, 2009 9:42 AM GMT
Mr M , I hope you made this thread before selling ?? (then decided not to)

When i started out I posted a poorly thought out spread bet on the forum and of course it got hammered, it was horrible , I hope your not hurting too much here pal.

Don't know if anyone on the forum remembers my position ? Where i opposed Daniel Flynn of NZ in matchmakers vs Gayle , Sarwan and Chanderpaul for 10pp each , of coarse Flynn scores a flukey 95 (still his best score in tests) lost 3/4 of my bank , it was a great learning experience and i'm far wealthier now for the experience.
Report fundamentalist December 3, 2009 10:15 AM GMT
remember it well H, good to hear things are very much on the up for you
Report hazardous December 3, 2009 10:38 AM GMT
Cheers Fundy , I remember you and a couple others defending me on the forum that day when others were rubbing it in , I'm glad it happened in hindsight, lesson well learn't ;)
Report Mr. Moustache December 3, 2009 11:19 AM GMT
Ah well, win some you lose some! But fortunately there was a stop at I think 200 runs.

Bakerboy, was gonna trade out at the start of play today regardless of what they were offering after quite a good day yesterday, but unfortunately only woke up an hour ago!

Thank fook I didnt have to watch it unfold, but luckily no real damage done. Just lost all my winnings of some good recent boxing/footy bets :(
Report fundamentalist December 3, 2009 11:22 AM GMT
sorry to hear Mr M, chalk it down to experience
Report Baker Boy December 3, 2009 2:19 PM GMT
Never bet on Asian based cricket, that has been my theory for some years, there are times i've kicked my own backside for missing out on things i quite liked the look of. But on the whole, there have been too many "dodgy" games for me to invest money in with confidence.

Lets hope you find a stand out bet in the SA v Eng series and recover from this setback.
Report Mr. Moustache December 3, 2009 2:36 PM GMT
Yeah one of my main rules with betting on cricket is dont bet in a game incolving Pak! Not coz I think theres anything underhand going on, they're just too unpredictable & can implode on a moments notice.

Doesnt mean I always stick to it though!
Report oddduck December 3, 2009 2:38 PM GMT
how does this market work?
Report fundamentalist December 3, 2009 3:23 PM GMT
odduck, tonups are how many runs scored over the hundred mark. So say somes scores 156 it makes up 56, if they get 325 it makes up 225, any score of 100 or less makes up 0. If you do total match ton ups then its the sum of the excess runs over 100 in each individual innings summed.So in this match so far the running total 193 (9 for dishans 109 and 184 for sehwags 284)
Report oddduck December 3, 2009 3:26 PM GMT
thanks funda
Report smeagors December 3, 2009 3:59 PM GMT
spread betting can be a hair-raising experience .. some of my gambling pals did their conkers in runs mkts when they 1st came out .. theres been some that have gone t'other way .. was it wides or xtras when the white ball was introduced and there was monumental one on the road hole in the open one yr ..
Report fundamentalist December 3, 2009 4:11 PM GMT
world cup wides with the white ball and tighter calls from umps haha :D
Report Deadly Earnest December 3, 2009 4:26 PM GMT
I've written this before, but I think the absolute key to spread staking is to start from something like a reasonably foreseeable worst case scenario, and stake accoring to that. So on a bet like tonups here we might think the worst case scenario we could reasonably expect at the start of the match could be around 250 makeup for arguments sake. If a normal fixed odds stake for you is £500 on something you consider a 75% likelihood to occur, then you might sell for £3pp at 85 or whatever the quote was. If it makes up at 250 you lose £495.

You have to accept with open ended spread bets(sells) that you will get smashed to smithereens every now and then, but if you select them wisely you should be able to ride these ones out.

The error most of us have probably made - certainly i did, especially in the early days - is thinking something was near certain to happen and just setting our stake according to how much we hoped to win. This staking regime led to a few quiet contemplative evenings in the Deadly Earnest household staring blankly at walls in the room of mirrors having a good long hard look at myself. Actually, that should read having a good long hard look at myself weeping.

If you put some good thought into spread betting, do your research and stake sensibly there is no reason you can't do well at it. I have actually found it steadier and more consistent than fixed odds betting over the long haul, though it seems the curtain has been drawn on my career to a large extent.
Report wrung out December 3, 2009 5:23 PM GMT
something to do with the IG purge maybe?
Report Sterling Morrison December 5, 2009 10:10 AM GMT
Sanga still adding
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