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26 Nov 09 10:02
Date Joined: 03 Aug 05
| Topic/replies: 3,142 | Blogger: bigjoe's blog
?:| ?:|

Ok with interest waning in the injun / lanka test :( .. lets move onto this one :)

Put simply... Aussies at 1.22 is laughable :^0 ... windies at 25.0 is about right :( .. but draw at 7.0 is THE value ;)

Reasons are simple....this brisy pitch usually flatens out on days 2 and 3 :0 .windies will be batting when the pitch is at its best for batting..... they bat deeeeeeeeeeeeeeeep, i say deeeeeeeeeeeep with ramdin at 8 and taylor at 9 .... this aussie bowling is the reason they have slipped to 4th intest rankings...i would not trust this ausie bowling to bring home a loaf of bread let alone a 1.22 match position :0 .. they wilrely too much on the new ball, i believe windies can get through that new ballosing only a couple of wickets at worst :0 .. and ten the ausies bowlings huffing and pufing wil start ;)

most likely scenario for his match imo is that aussies will post close to 500 ...windies wilreply with 450+ ...... and draw wile sub1.5 on day 5 ;)

y main bets on this are series bets :0 .. layed ausies at 1.9 to win sries 3-0 :^0 ... also layed them for te series at 1.12 :^0 .. and backed the 1-1 scoreline at 13.0 ;)

Therefore my stakes on this match are very minimal..i got a fiver the draw at 6.2 ..i have just topped up another fiver on the draw at this generous 7.0 :0 ....i simply say.. join me.. you know it makes sense ;)

There you go. thats what i think will hapen in this test.. what do you lot think ? ?:|
Pause Switch to Standard View Ausies v Windies.... 7.0 the draw .....
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Report Craig The Speculator November 26, 2009 10:09 AM GMT
agree joe - cant believe aussies shorter than when the day started

i feared they could be 3 for 400 so 5 for 326 is dissappointing for aust in my opinion when windies strength and aussies weakness to come

maybe i'm on the wrong track?
Report bigjoe November 26, 2009 10:16 AM GMT
i think we both on the right track craig.. can't see a derailment here :D
Report Craig The Speculator November 26, 2009 10:23 AM GMT
price aided by the aussie media who have given to the windies - they have not taken into account their reasonable test form prior to their trip to england
Report Smalltime Punter November 26, 2009 10:29 AM GMT
they bat deeeeeeeeeeeeeeeep, i say deeeeeeeeeeeep with ramdin at 8 and taylor at 9

Surely Ramdin is at 7 and Taylor 8? Unless one of Rampaul, Benn or Roach is going to bat 7. I think that makes a big difference. WI batting is certainly better than their bowling, but it could be argued that without Sarwan and with Gayle not having any warm-up time, it hasn't had the best of preparation.

I'd want a chance of weather interruptions as well if I was backing the draw - Brisbane virtually never produces a draw without it (although obviously the Aus attack would usually have been better than this one).

No bet for me on this still - Aussies very strong favourites but I'm not interested in backing 1.21 shots with 4 days left.
Report fundamentalist November 26, 2009 10:30 AM GMT
Reasons are simple....this brisy pitch usually flatens out on days 2 and 3

any evidence behind this statement Joe? Last 4 tests here 2nd inns has been sub 220
Report Jan1ne November 26, 2009 10:35 AM GMT
looks a better bet now at 6/1 than before the start given an only steady-ish start and a not unplayable pitch
Report Narro75 November 26, 2009 11:19 AM GMT
Bowling attack can't be that bad Joe - we did just beat the mighty India on there home turf in the recent one dayers.

And didn't Australia beat South Africa over there.

Ashes was disappointing but Hilfenhaus and Siddle bowled well and Johnson had a shocker.

Can't think of to many draws at the Gabba in the last 10 years Joe?
Report Girls aloud lezzer scrum November 26, 2009 11:32 AM GMT
Massive leap of faith to think the Windies will score 450+. 300 more likely imo
Report West Coast Eagles November 26, 2009 11:46 AM GMT
Have to agree with Joe and Craig on this one, also might have to factor into account possibility of rain on days 3 and 5 from all reports, 30% and 70% likely (not sure how many overs will be lost)

An attack of Mitch Johnson, Hilfenhaus ,Siddle, Hauritz is OK but they are not world beaters.

Would have loved to see a Ganga, and/or Kieron Pollard in this team.
Report West Coast Eagles November 26, 2009 11:48 AM GMT
I feel West Indies batting is ok from memory that scored 350 odd off 115 overs against QLD in 2nd dig in a warm up game.

For me batting time out is more valuable than scoring runs for West Indies, but both are equally as important. I feel there will be some lost overs in this match having a look at forecast.

An innings of 300 runs off 150 overs is going to be just as valuable as an innings 350 off 95.0 overs.
Report good value losers November 26, 2009 11:56 AM GMT
West Coast Eagles 26 Nov 12:48
For me batting time out is more valuable than scoring runs for West Indies, but both are equally as important.

Report bigjoe November 26, 2009 12:01 PM GMT
Funda yes indeed 2nd innings scores do not indicates pitch flattening out .. but the in most of the games aussies had piled up around or over 500 batting first..... and obviously quite a few of those were scored on 2nd day.... fact that kiwis, sri lanka folded after 2 days in field was more to blame then pitch as bo5th scored a lot more in thie 2nd innings on days 4 and 5 , which indicates pitch does get easier to bat on :0

But i repeat, the biggest reason is that this is a very weak Aussie bowling lineup... this is a very strong windies batting lineup.. this equates to a score of 450+ for windies imo.... and even if they only score 350 in first knock.. there is always the 2nd innings to come .. where as previous games shows, batting is easier ;)

So all in all.... 7.0 for this aussie attack NOT to take 20 wickets in 3 days remains value of the highest order :D
Report Craig The Speculator November 26, 2009 12:11 PM GMT
west coast my biggest fear here is that the west indies start believing our media about how terrible they are

the caning they have got just doesn't add up - forget their last four tests as they are unrepresentative and previously in february they beat england 1 - 0 in a 5 test series

does that indicate a team that doesn't dig in?

previously they drew series's agains nz and sri lanka and won a test in south africa

such a pity sarwan is out but the difference in the two sides isn't that great imo
Report JimmyK November 26, 2009 12:14 PM GMT
big joe

If the Aussies bowling is that bad how did they beat the Injuns?
Report bigjoe November 26, 2009 12:14 PM GMT
The other thing to consider is that this 7.0 is "almost" a free back ;)

Even if things go aussies way in next couple of days.. lets say they score 500...windies all out 250 :( ... no way will ponting enforce the follow on 250 ahead... he will bat on and try and set 500 in last 5 sessions.... in those circumstances, the draw would still only be around 8.0 at most ;)

So whichever way you look at it... the HAS to be backed here ... imo its INEVITABLE that it will trade a hell of a lot lower..i believe it will trade nearer evens at sometime in this test....i say don't look a gift horse in the mouth... back the draw.. then decide if you want to lay off and take a profit .. or let it ride :)
Report bigjoe November 26, 2009 12:16 PM GMT
jimmy k.. if they had to take 20 wickets in those odis games you refer to they would not have beaten injuns ;)

Why ?

Cos the last time they had to take 20 wickets to beat india in india.. they failed misreably and were sent packing with a 2-0 series defeat :(

You can judge tests with Odi form... i prefer to keep them as seperate entities ;)
Report West Coast Eagles November 26, 2009 12:22 PM GMT
As a draw backer as well

Im not sure whether I want Windies to bowl Aussies for say under 400 , or let them bat on and on and get around 500-550

If they decide to bat on and on, it eliminates more time from the game.

This game for me has a very familiar feel to the current India V SL 2nd test match, I get the feeling day 3 will be D-Day here.
Report bigjoe November 26, 2009 12:23 PM GMT
fact is..... Aussies have slipped to 4th in rankings cos they lost 2-0 away to injuns.. lost at home to saffers.... and lost to england in ashes... 1.22 on a team that has lost 3 out of last 4 test series is not value imo ;)

And the main reason they lost those 3 series is that their bowling failed to take 20 wickets ..... ok windies not as good as injuns or saffers.. but they did manage to beat england... they did beat saffers in a test away too and they are improving all the time.

The prices in this series belong in the distant past when aussies were dominant... oppo are not scared of them any more .... their bowling really is carp in relation to what it used to be :0 .. the prices on aussies will slowly start to reflect that reality over the coming months... but till then, i say lets take advantage ;)
Report mafeking November 26, 2009 12:33 PM GMT
craig, that was perhaps the most flattering 1-0 series win in history on some of the deadest wickets i've ever seen. england were in turmoil after KP's sacking as well and still could won 2-1 having them 9 down in antigua and 8 trinidad. not sure has much relevance to playing oz away.
Report Max and Paddy November 26, 2009 12:49 PM GMT
And to describe it as a "five-Test series" is slightly disingenuous, considering that one of the Tests lasted just ten balls!
Report mittheimp November 26, 2009 1:05 PM GMT
not sure windies bat so deep in this match.

Bravo is playing as a no.5 and not as a no7. where perhaps he should be. Dowlin is not a great no.3 and cant expect too much from Barath's debut. Too much depends on chanderpaul - hopefully batting 4, not 5!
Taylor is a good number 9 but an ordinary no.8 - the last 3 can hold a bat, but no great shakes.

If sarwan was playing and bravo played as the bowling allrounder not the batting one, than id agree they bat deep - but this test they don't!
Report Birchola November 26, 2009 5:31 PM GMT
The Windies test batting is pretty abysmal. They will do well to post 300 during any innings this series.
Report GrimReaper November 26, 2009 5:42 PM GMT
Aussie media "caning" a visiting side? HTEHB?
Report Deadly Earnest November 26, 2009 5:47 PM GMT
I think the 7.0 represent value though I feel by far the most likely scenario is Australia wn and win well from here.

Mit I think Bravo is virtually as good as any batsman WI has at present though this is unproven at test level. For a 25 year old who has had to bowl a fair bit, his average of 32 is quite good when you consider he doesn't have too many soft runs to his name and has often batted without too much support wich would tend to panic most young players at this level. I am a bit concerned about him bowling over 25% of the overs on day one and how that effects his batting here, but I do feel he will prove one of the better batsmen in the game in coming years.
Report anyother November 26, 2009 5:50 PM GMT
18 smileys .. thats good nuff for me .. i'm going all in :|
Report Birchola November 26, 2009 5:59 PM GMT
19 :D ;)
Report Injera November 26, 2009 7:02 PM GMT
A draw at Brissy when the visitors are undercooked?

Mmm, not sure I can see it happening but it would be pleasing nonetheless.

Home win I would think.
Report anyother November 26, 2009 7:19 PM GMT
ffffffffffffffúcking n'n'n'n'n'n'n'n'n'n'n'n'n'n'n'n'ineteen is correct :(
Report mittheimp November 27, 2009 7:42 AM GMT
big joe... how deep they bat again?
Report Narro75 November 27, 2009 7:47 AM GMT
Only chance this Test will end in a draw is if it rains for 1.5 days.

Windies batting is poor and the Gabba wicket produces results. Not a lot of huffing and puffing required by the Aussie bowlers.
Report bigjoe November 27, 2009 9:22 AM GMT
Nt quite going to plan then :(

After the arrogant declaration by tricky ricky :) windies were cooking at 49-0 .. but a short time lateat 63-4 it was clear that their cooking was more what you see in wormwood scrubs then a michelin star resteraunt :(

BUT.i am nothing if not an optomist B-) ... always remembr its a marathon not a sprint ;) .. windies still have 15 wickets left.. and the good news for them.. and me .. was that after having windies 63-4 while ball was reasonably new ... as it got older, the rest of the sesion was 71-1 ;) ... in other words... there are signs of some hufing and puffing around the corner from the ausie bowling and there is still every chance that windies can avoid the follow on and the draw comes back into the picture ;)

Een if the windies tail does not wag .. they stilgot their 2nd ings to come... they might not mesthat one up and they could score that 450+ in 2nd innings instead of the first ;)

Add in the weather doubts..and its clear tat this marathon stilhas a long way to run ;)

Good Luck )
Report d13phe November 27, 2009 9:24 AM GMT
have you ever admitted you got it wrong in the middle of a test

you are one stubborn person
Report bigjoe November 27, 2009 9:25 AM GMT
mitheimp .. 96-5 for top 5 wickets .... 38-0 for last 5 so far ... first sesion tommorow will see you get your answer :D
Report bigjoe November 27, 2009 9:27 AM GMT
daph3e..if i get it wrong i hold my hand up when test is finished .but just as you cannot judge a soup after the first you cannot judge a marathon that still has 15 miles to run ;)
Report d13phe November 27, 2009 9:27 AM GMT
don't count on a marathon

this test will be over tomorrow

thats 2 days early by the way
Report anyother November 27, 2009 9:29 AM GMT
thats funny .. i thought travis dowling was still at the crease @ stumps .. nah i must have read it wrong cos we know bj only deals in facts right ?
Report anyother November 27, 2009 9:30 AM GMT
no top up :0 :0
Report Birchola November 27, 2009 9:59 AM GMT
What happening to the Windies looooooooong batting line up? :0

Looks like they're one wicket away from a looooooooong tail to me. :|
Report anyother November 27, 2009 10:07 AM GMT
don't be daft birch .. they go waaaaaayyyyy deeeeeeeeeep .. expect them to be at least 150-200 ahead by end of their 1st innings :|
Report cricnut November 27, 2009 10:22 AM GMT
don't think the Test will end on 3rd day, as RP doesn't always enforce the follow on and even if he does, 15 wickets in a day, not likely
Report bigjoe November 27, 2009 10:32 AM GMT
The Draw 17.5 £2.00 £33.00
Ref: 574646699 Bet placed: 11:30 27-Nov-09

There you Anyother..i topped up 2 quid on the draw at 17.5 just for you :D
Report Craig The Speculator November 27, 2009 10:45 AM GMT
bigjoe - i'm thinking the same way but then again we have too

always the 2nd test where the aussies will be 1.25 again anyway
Report bigjoe November 27, 2009 11:00 AM GMT
True craig :(

I agree, whatever happens in this game, my main bet of laying aussies to win series 3-0 at 1.9 will still bear fruit ;)

Next game is at addelaide...hopefully sarwan will be back and if windies dont post 500+ there in one of their innings i am an alien :)

Third test at perth and whereas against india it was a case of" whats good for the goose is good for the gandhi".. this time it will be a cae of "whats good for the goose is good for the ganja" :D

So even if aussies do go 1-0 up here..i will be laying them for even more to win 3-0 at a lot lot less then 1.9 ;)

Good Luck :)
Report mafeking November 27, 2009 11:29 AM GMT
adelaide certainly a much better chance of the draw trading much lower than sp. always very flat there for the first 3 days. get out though cos of plenty 2nd inns collapses on day 4 and 5.
Report anyother November 27, 2009 11:34 AM GMT
i don't blame you as it happens bj .. could be some milage in that price .. gl
Report West Coast Eagles November 27, 2009 11:38 AM GMT
still looking at that weather, saying rain could fall between afternoon tommorow between 2pm and 7pm

Need the rain to be strong to have any chance of a Windies draw me thinks.

Also I must say Ramdin and Dowlin looked really good at the wicket yesterday, I think they need to bat at least 30 overs tommorow for West Indies to have a chance of saving the game.
Report West Coast Eagles November 27, 2009 1:07 PM GMT
Dowlin and particularly Ramdin can help steer windies past the follow on. Taylor is an excellent batter - will develop to be a good allrounder. Benn is a very good batter and can put up a few runs.

If Sarwan is available next week I will see him take Dowlin's spot even though Dowlin has batted well here. It's the way the cookie crumbles.

If Taylor is not fit to play, then Sammy will come in. Sammy should have never been left out of the team in the first place. If Taylor does play, I would bring Sammy in for Rampaul who is not a test bowler and I've stated that in many places over the years. He's a limited overs and 20/20 bowler and that's it. He doesn't belong in the test arena. He is ** with the red ball. Hopefully now the selecters see it and Edwards can come back quick.
Report Injera November 27, 2009 1:17 PM GMT
Benn can't bat. HTH.

Taylor will get runs every now and then. More likely to fail than get to 30.
Report thehoops November 27, 2009 7:05 PM GMT
you cannot judge a soup after the first spoonful

i think you can
Report d13phe November 28, 2009 9:55 AM GMT
why dont you listen to sense BJ instead of blindly backing teams?

Report mittheimp November 28, 2009 10:08 AM GMT
how deep they bat?
Report d13phe November 28, 2009 10:09 AM GMT
Report worcester sauce November 28, 2009 10:20 AM GMT
big joe toooooo much opinion for somebody who tops up in £2 amounts NAP
Report bigjoe November 28, 2009 12:57 PM GMT
not one of my best calls :(

aologies to those that may have followed me in :(

Adelaide next..i will be keeping the faith with windies on that flat pitch and hopefully get these rupees back with plenty of interest ;)
Report TwoTonTed November 28, 2009 1:05 PM GMT
why waste your money Joe, they just aint no where near good enough. You're almost as fanatical about this series as you are about every game that India plays.
Report Lix November 28, 2009 1:12 PM GMT
lots of sides get hammered at Brissy and put in a decent performance next game at Adelaide.

WI should have Sarwan back. I'm laying Aus.
Report bigjoe November 28, 2009 5:27 PM GMT
ttt..i am fanatical about laying ANY team that has lost 3 of last 4 series and is 1.12 to win a series against a top 8 side and are 1.9 to win that series 3-0 :0

I will not go poor in the long run laying these prices imo ;)
Report anyother November 28, 2009 7:30 PM GMT
bj is fanatically anti aus at the mo .. we all know that .. his quite often common sense comes up with some great calls but unfortuanately he see's the red curtain re aus especially .. he works full time so how can he watch all the games the way others who trade for a living do .. i don't as i work but condusively i don't come on here making calls about every game as if i'm a pro .. a pro is a pro .. a part time amatuer is exactly that .. the unfortuanate thing for me is that alot of the valuable contributors to this forum no longer post mainly cos of beej and his desire to argue till the cows come home .. :(
Report mittheimp November 28, 2009 10:41 PM GMT
If Sarwan is back in and Windies play the extra batsman then i think Windies batting aint all that bad and possibly even a little 'deep' - bravo at 7, Ramdin at 8. Trouble with the Windies in overseas series is they just dont play anything like enough warm-up games - they always go into first test cold - especially this game with Gayle cold and jet-lagged! Also most of these players havent played any decent level of cricket for months.

still - a batting line up that includes Gayle, Sarwan, chanderpaul and now Barath cant be all that bad. I envisage an improvemnet - maybe a 5th day defeat this time, alas.
Report Lies, DamnLies, and Statistics November 29, 2009 10:33 PM GMT
more chance of a draw in adelaide than brisbane joe, and we know they will prepare a road....

but windies need sarwan back, gayle to look like he gives a stuff (the most unlikely) and that fake chanderpaul who played in brisbane to go home and be replaced by the real one who can actually bat....

fact is windies batted for about 2 sessions in both innings in brisbane....they will need to bat about 8 sessions in adelaide to scrape a may happen, and i CERTAINLY am not advocating backing aus at this price....let's just say i look forward to your adelaide preview...

Report bigjoe November 30, 2009 7:25 AM GMT
anyother 28 Nov 20:30

bj is fanatically anti aus at the mo .. we all know that

I backed aussies in their test win against saffers :0 ..i backed aussies in their test loss to england..... backing them in 2 out of their last 3 series does not equate to me being anti aussies imo ;)
Report bigjoe November 30, 2009 7:33 AM GMT
And if anything this proves that all along i have been anti nobody :0 .. cos i also backed saffers to beat aussies in their ODI wins.. backed england against saffers in this odi series :0

As i have always said.. and am a priceist ... i will lay aussies ... or any team that is in region of 1.3 prematch against another top 8 side .... when the aussiers were consitently trading at 1.3 i was laying them like the clappers and making good money .. when they were odds against i started backing them.. now they back to 1.3 shots i start laying them again ... you do not need to be brain of britain to work out the patern there ;)

LDSL.. yes i agree addelaide will see didefernt game... i am goin to give the windies the benefit of the doubt and i am sure they will score 500+ in at least one of their innings at this flatcake addelaide pitch.

Then its onto perth and that will be a case of "whats good for the goose is good for the ganja" ... so overall i reckon the OUTSDTANDING value in this series remains laying the aussies to win it 3-0 at 1.5 :^0 ..i already layed them at 1.9 ..i am happy as larry to lay further.... i reckon they will be 1000.00 to win 3-0 next week ;)

good luck :)
Report Smalltime Punter November 30, 2009 9:04 AM GMT
Think the draw at 6.0 is the bet at Adelaide - the Windies couldn't bowl Aus out twice there if they had until Christmas, so I'd rather take 5/1 the draw than 7/2 draw or WI.

Probably a back-to-lay though, as matches here sometimes move on quickly in the third/fourth innings and you get results where draws previously looked nailed on.
Report bigjoe November 30, 2009 9:29 AM GMT
agree SP that draw is the value.. however we cannot rule out another arrogant declaration by tricky tricky .. so i think the best bet is to lay aussies with a small top on the windies too ;)
Report bigjoe November 30, 2009 9:29 AM GMT
tricky ricky even :(
Report Smalltime Punter November 30, 2009 10:44 AM GMT
Can probably afford to leave that until in-play though Joe - i.e. if WI are chasing 400+ in the 4th innings, back them then. I don't suppose they'll be shorter than they are now.
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