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bigjoe
26 Nov 09 10:02
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Date Joined: 03 Aug 05
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?:| ?:|

Ok with interest waning in the injun / lanka test :( .. lets move onto this one :)

Put simply... Aussies at 1.22 is laughable :^0 ... windies at 25.0 is about right :( .. but draw at 7.0 is THE value ;)

Reasons are simple....this brisy pitch usually flatens out on days 2 and 3 :0 .windies will be batting when the pitch is at its best for batting..... they bat deeeeeeeeeeeeeeeep, i say deeeeeeeeeeeep with ramdin at 8 and taylor at 9 .... this aussie bowling is the reason they have slipped to 4th intest rankings...i would not trust this ausie bowling to bring home a loaf of bread let alone a 1.22 match position :0 .. they wilrely too much on the new ball, i believe windies can get through that new ballosing only a couple of wickets at worst :0 .. and ten the ausies bowlings huffing and pufing wil start ;)

most likely scenario for his match imo is that aussies will post close to 500 ...windies wilreply with 450+ ...... and draw wile sub1.5 on day 5 ;)

y main bets on this are series bets :0 .. layed ausies at 1.9 to win sries 3-0 :^0 ... also layed them for te series at 1.12 :^0 .. and backed the 1-1 scoreline at 13.0 ;)

Therefore my stakes on this match are very minimal..i got a fiver the draw at 6.2 ..i have just topped up another fiver on the draw at this generous 7.0 :0 ....i simply say.. join me.. you know it makes sense ;)

There you go. thats what i think will hapen in this test.. what do you lot think ? ?:|

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Replies: 66
By:
Craig The Speculator
When: 26 Nov 09 10:09
agree joe - cant believe aussies shorter than when the day started

i feared they could be 3 for 400 so 5 for 326 is dissappointing for aust in my opinion when windies strength and aussies weakness to come

maybe i'm on the wrong track?
By:
bigjoe
When: 26 Nov 09 10:16
i think we both on the right track craig.. can't see a derailment here :D
By:
Craig The Speculator
When: 26 Nov 09 10:23
price aided by the aussie media who have given to the windies - they have not taken into account their reasonable test form prior to their trip to england
By:
Smalltime Punter
When: 26 Nov 09 10:29
they bat deeeeeeeeeeeeeeeep, i say deeeeeeeeeeeep with ramdin at 8 and taylor at 9

Surely Ramdin is at 7 and Taylor 8? Unless one of Rampaul, Benn or Roach is going to bat 7. I think that makes a big difference. WI batting is certainly better than their bowling, but it could be argued that without Sarwan and with Gayle not having any warm-up time, it hasn't had the best of preparation.

I'd want a chance of weather interruptions as well if I was backing the draw - Brisbane virtually never produces a draw without it (although obviously the Aus attack would usually have been better than this one).

No bet for me on this still - Aussies very strong favourites but I'm not interested in backing 1.21 shots with 4 days left.
By:
fundamentalist
When: 26 Nov 09 10:30
Reasons are simple....this brisy pitch usually flatens out on days 2 and 3

any evidence behind this statement Joe? Last 4 tests here 2nd inns has been sub 220
By:
Jan1ne
When: 26 Nov 09 10:35
looks a better bet now at 6/1 than before the start given an only steady-ish start and a not unplayable pitch
By:
Narro75
When: 26 Nov 09 11:19
Bowling attack can't be that bad Joe - we did just beat the mighty India on there home turf in the recent one dayers.

And didn't Australia beat South Africa over there.

Ashes was disappointing but Hilfenhaus and Siddle bowled well and Johnson had a shocker.

Can't think of to many draws at the Gabba in the last 10 years Joe?
By:
Girls aloud lezzer scrum
When: 26 Nov 09 11:32
Massive leap of faith to think the Windies will score 450+. 300 more likely imo
By:
West Coast Eagles
When: 26 Nov 09 11:46
Have to agree with Joe and Craig on this one, also might have to factor into account possibility of rain on days 3 and 5 from all reports, 30% and 70% likely (not sure how many overs will be lost)

An attack of Mitch Johnson, Hilfenhaus ,Siddle, Hauritz is OK but they are not world beaters.

Would have loved to see a Ganga, and/or Kieron Pollard in this team.
By:
West Coast Eagles
When: 26 Nov 09 11:48
I feel West Indies batting is ok from memory that scored 350 odd off 115 overs against QLD in 2nd dig in a warm up game.

For me batting time out is more valuable than scoring runs for West Indies, but both are equally as important. I feel there will be some lost overs in this match having a look at forecast.

An innings of 300 runs off 150 overs is going to be just as valuable as an innings 350 off 95.0 overs.
By:
good value losers
When: 26 Nov 09 11:56
West Coast Eagles 26 Nov 12:48
For me batting time out is more valuable than scoring runs for West Indies, but both are equally as important.


:^0
By:
bigjoe
When: 26 Nov 09 12:01
Funda yes indeed 2nd innings scores do not indicates pitch flattening out .. but the in most of the games aussies had piled up around or over 500 batting first..... and obviously quite a few of those were scored on 2nd day.... fact that kiwis, sri lanka folded after 2 days in field was more to blame then pitch as bo5th scored a lot more in thie 2nd innings on days 4 and 5 , which indicates pitch does get easier to bat on :0

But i repeat, the biggest reason is that this is a very weak Aussie bowling lineup... this is a very strong windies batting lineup.. this equates to a score of 450+ for windies imo.... and even if they only score 350 in first knock.. there is always the 2nd innings to come .. where as previous games shows, batting is easier ;)

So all in all.... 7.0 for this aussie attack NOT to take 20 wickets in 3 days remains value of the highest order :D
By:
Craig The Speculator
When: 26 Nov 09 12:11
west coast my biggest fear here is that the west indies start believing our media about how terrible they are


the caning they have got just doesn't add up - forget their last four tests as they are unrepresentative and previously in february they beat england 1 - 0 in a 5 test series

does that indicate a team that doesn't dig in?

previously they drew series's agains nz and sri lanka and won a test in south africa

such a pity sarwan is out but the difference in the two sides isn't that great imo
By:
JimmyK
When: 26 Nov 09 12:14
big joe

If the Aussies bowling is that bad how did they beat the Injuns?
By:
bigjoe
When: 26 Nov 09 12:14
The other thing to consider is that this 7.0 is "almost" a free back ;)

Even if things go aussies way in next couple of days.. lets say they score 500...windies all out 250 :( ... no way will ponting enforce the follow on 250 ahead... he will bat on and try and set 500 in last 5 sessions.... in those circumstances, the draw would still only be around 8.0 at most ;)

So whichever way you look at it... the HAS to be backed here ... imo its INEVITABLE that it will trade a hell of a lot lower..i believe it will trade nearer evens at sometime in this test....i say don't look a gift horse in the mouth... back the draw.. then decide if you want to lay off and take a profit .. or let it ride :)
By:
bigjoe
When: 26 Nov 09 12:16
jimmy k.. if they had to take 20 wickets in those odis games you refer to they would not have beaten injuns ;)

Why ?

Cos the last time they had to take 20 wickets to beat india in india.. they failed misreably and were sent packing with a 2-0 series defeat :(

You can judge tests with Odi form... i prefer to keep them as seperate entities ;)
By:
West Coast Eagles
When: 26 Nov 09 12:22
As a draw backer as well

Im not sure whether I want Windies to bowl Aussies for say under 400 , or let them bat on and on and get around 500-550

If they decide to bat on and on, it eliminates more time from the game.

This game for me has a very familiar feel to the current India V SL 2nd test match, I get the feeling day 3 will be D-Day here.
By:
bigjoe
When: 26 Nov 09 12:23
fact is..... Aussies have slipped to 4th in rankings cos they lost 2-0 away to injuns.. lost at home to saffers.... and lost to england in ashes... 1.22 on a team that has lost 3 out of last 4 test series is not value imo ;)

And the main reason they lost those 3 series is that their bowling failed to take 20 wickets ..... ok windies not as good as injuns or saffers.. but they did manage to beat england... they did beat saffers in a test away too and they are improving all the time.

The prices in this series belong in the distant past when aussies were dominant... oppo are not scared of them any more .... their bowling really is carp in relation to what it used to be :0 .. the prices on aussies will slowly start to reflect that reality over the coming months... but till then, i say lets take advantage ;)
By:
mafeking
When: 26 Nov 09 12:33
craig, that was perhaps the most flattering 1-0 series win in history on some of the deadest wickets i've ever seen. england were in turmoil after KP's sacking as well and still could won 2-1 having them 9 down in antigua and 8 trinidad. not sure has much relevance to playing oz away.
By:
Max and Paddy
When: 26 Nov 09 12:49
And to describe it as a "five-Test series" is slightly disingenuous, considering that one of the Tests lasted just ten balls!
By:
mittheimp
When: 26 Nov 09 13:05
not sure windies bat so deep in this match.

Bravo is playing as a no.5 and not as a no7. where perhaps he should be. Dowlin is not a great no.3 and cant expect too much from Barath's debut. Too much depends on chanderpaul - hopefully batting 4, not 5!
Taylor is a good number 9 but an ordinary no.8 - the last 3 can hold a bat, but no great shakes.

If sarwan was playing and bravo played as the bowling allrounder not the batting one, than id agree they bat deep - but this test they don't!
By:
Birchola
When: 26 Nov 09 17:31
The Windies test batting is pretty abysmal. They will do well to post 300 during any innings this series.
By:
GrimReaper
When: 26 Nov 09 17:42
Aussie media "caning" a visiting side? HTEHB?
By:
Deadly Earnest
When: 26 Nov 09 17:47
I think the 7.0 represent value though I feel by far the most likely scenario is Australia wn and win well from here.

Mit I think Bravo is virtually as good as any batsman WI has at present though this is unproven at test level. For a 25 year old who has had to bowl a fair bit, his average of 32 is quite good when you consider he doesn't have too many soft runs to his name and has often batted without too much support wich would tend to panic most young players at this level. I am a bit concerned about him bowling over 25% of the overs on day one and how that effects his batting here, but I do feel he will prove one of the better batsmen in the game in coming years.
By:
anyother
When: 26 Nov 09 17:50
18 smileys .. thats good nuff for me .. i'm going all in :|
By:
Birchola
When: 26 Nov 09 17:59
19 :D ;)
By:
Injera
When: 26 Nov 09 19:02
A draw at Brissy when the visitors are undercooked?

Mmm, not sure I can see it happening but it would be pleasing nonetheless.

Home win I would think.
By:
anyother
When: 26 Nov 09 19:19
ffffffffffffffúcking n'n'n'n'n'n'n'n'n'n'n'n'n'n'n'n'ineteen is correct :(
By:
mittheimp
When: 27 Nov 09 07:42
big joe... how deep they bat again?
By:
Narro75
When: 27 Nov 09 07:47
Only chance this Test will end in a draw is if it rains for 1.5 days.

Windies batting is poor and the Gabba wicket produces results. Not a lot of huffing and puffing required by the Aussie bowlers.
By:
bigjoe
When: 27 Nov 09 09:22
Nt quite going to plan then :(

After the arrogant declaration by tricky ricky :) windies were cooking at 49-0 .. but a short time lateat 63-4 it was clear that their cooking was more what you see in wormwood scrubs then a michelin star resteraunt :(

BUT.i am nothing if not an optomist B-) ... always remembr its a marathon not a sprint ;) .. windies still have 15 wickets left.. and the good news for them.. and me .. was that after having windies 63-4 while ball was reasonably new ... as it got older, the rest of the sesion was 71-1 ;) ... in other words... there are signs of some hufing and puffing around the corner from the ausie bowling and there is still every chance that windies can avoid the follow on and the draw comes back into the picture ;)

Een if the windies tail does not wag .. they stilgot their 2nd ings to come... they might not mesthat one up and they could score that 450+ in 2nd innings instead of the first ;)

Add in the weather doubts..and its clear tat this marathon stilhas a long way to run ;)

Good Luck )
By:
d13phe
When: 27 Nov 09 09:24
have you ever admitted you got it wrong in the middle of a test

you are one stubborn person
By:
bigjoe
When: 27 Nov 09 09:25
mitheimp .. 96-5 for top 5 wickets .... 38-0 for last 5 so far ... first sesion tommorow will see you get your answer :D
By:
bigjoe
When: 27 Nov 09 09:27
daph3e..if i get it wrong i hold my hand up when test is finished .but just as you cannot judge a soup after the first spoonful.....so you cannot judge a marathon that still has 15 miles to run ;)
By:
d13phe
When: 27 Nov 09 09:27
don't count on a marathon

this test will be over tomorrow

thats 2 days early by the way
By:
anyother
When: 27 Nov 09 09:29
thats funny .. i thought travis dowling was still at the crease @ stumps .. nah i must have read it wrong cos we know bj only deals in facts right ?
By:
anyother
When: 27 Nov 09 09:30
no top up :0 :0
By:
Birchola
When: 27 Nov 09 09:59
What happening to the Windies looooooooong batting line up? :0

Looks like they're one wicket away from a looooooooong tail to me. :|
By:
anyother
When: 27 Nov 09 10:07
don't be daft birch .. they go waaaaaayyyyy deeeeeeeeeep .. expect them to be at least 150-200 ahead by end of their 1st innings :|
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