Cricket
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26 Nov 09
15:32
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08 Apr 08
Thought I'd get this up and running.
Interested to know any views on the advantage of batting 1st in a day/nighter at Newlands.
The stats suggest it's a big advantage but maybe those stats are skewed by South Africans dominance here.
Interested to know any views on the advantage of batting 1st in a day/nighter at Newlands.
The stats suggest it's a big advantage but maybe those stats are skewed by South Africans dominance here.
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momentum always more important then stats i find ;)
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IPL was a bat first win the game fest as well, time will tell
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Seems to vary a little imo according to the weather but can still remember it doing absolutely all sorts when Oz were skittled for 93 a few years back...as where as more recently there've been chases where it offers a bit but isn't the complete nightmare the bias in stats suggests.
Appreciate that's a rather fence sitting position but what I'm getting at is sometimes it is a very big advantage others it's much more minimal - I'd assume that's largely yo do with atmospherics/weather. |
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stats are skewed by SA being a dominant home side in recent years and winning lots of tosses here!
Still an advantage but not the 'win toss. win game ' everyone thinks. Aus put up a decent fight chasing 280 odd this year, fell about 20 short IIRC. Happy to be on Eng at 2.74 whatever the toss result for now. |
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Cobras chased down 243 with five overs to spare (35/40) with no Smith and Duminy a couple of weeks back.
Dont know how much you can read into that though. |
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Thanks for all the opinions so far, really looking forward to this one :)
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5 D/N games in the IPL at CT
3 won by side batting 1st, 1 loss, 1 tie. one of the wins was Deccan racking up 184, bangalore got 160 in reply which isnt bad. other scores of 133 and 139 were defended though. |
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The weather sites seem to be suggesting quite a sunny day and a clear evening incidentally,
which I would have thought would indicate a smaller disadvantage in batting second. |
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parnell back in the side is huge for SA
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After studying what I feel were the most relevant domestic results here over the last 6-7 years I think Brentford and others have good points here.
There have definitely been some international matches where a huge advantage was held by the team batting first and the SA v Oz match a few years back is a prime example. Domestic matches seem to show no obvious bias either in win ratio or margins of victory. Both teams are well acclimatised here, so if it is a sunny day with a decent pitch I doubt the toss will be deciding this. Having said that I won't be looking to take huge red positions on the team batting first unless I see especially good value. The 1.57 SA now is a price based on their potential or other factors, not their form imo. I usually prefer to believe form over other factors if I think the form is true. |
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brentford 26 Nov 17:02
The weather sites seem to be suggesting quite a sunny day and a clear evening incidentally, which I would have thought would indicate a smaller disadvantage in batting second. Not sure I buy that brenty I find the most notable thing about Newlands is how incredibly benign it is when the sun is out... rather than it being horrid under lights |
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gutted im gonna miss out on trading this one, my opinion is still bat first = win, but is potentially a traders dream this one... i remember in the ipl - couple of low scoring 1st innings scores being defended
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expecting a saffer backlash here
who gets dropped for Broad? |
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bresnan imo
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thought bresnan was the pick of the bowlers tbh in the last ODI
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yeah but when did england keep a stop gap player in the team just because he was in good form??
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your probably right
but harsh imo broad could get taken apart again. |
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Could well be that as well Ricc,
no firm views myself though I recall the Oz skittling particuarly well as an example of it being basically close to unplayable against the new ball. |
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Bit windy this morning but not a cloud in the sky, going to be a scorcher by the looks of it.
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I may be tempring fate here, but think England price looks cracking atm.
They seem to have found a side that can get runs now, and in strauss, Pieterson, Trott, and a very in form Collingwood, I think they have a very good chance of chasing anything, add to that the likely cameos of Morgan, Prior, Wright, Bresnan and Broad and the one day set up is suddenly looking rather strong on Englands part. Bat first and England should get a score that means any starting price can be traded, bat second and I think they will make a good fist of any chase. |
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I hope eng win the toss and bat 1st
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bigjoe 26 Nov 16:35
momentum always more important then stats i find ;) Shame you couldn't apply that sound logic in the recent Australia/India ODI series :( |
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if anyone thinks SA are a good price there is better value in the Series Odds
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Saffers are an awful price
England at a lovely price, realistically i'd have it england 2.2 tops. I fancy us to do them over here, backed England at 2.6 |
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Laid saffers at 1.6 sorry ** :)
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Hot dry day in Cape Town- there will def. NOT be much due tonight nor has there been in the preceding days.
IPL was played later in the year when conditions are Much tougher at night. Would rather be batting first but certainly not the be and end all. |
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Amla top score
Trott top score England winners |
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guys... any comments on opening partnership??? pitch???
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Value has to be to back England pre toss. Currently 2.68. Win toss and no more than 2.2 IMHO
Saffers win toss and England will be no more than 2.8 so little downside. |
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and heres the coin
up up up and the winner is.......... |
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coin still going up IB
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Swann and Broad play
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ffs
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SA win toss and bats
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SA win toss and bat
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right, thats 1-1. Onto the next game
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Boo Hoo!!
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SA win toss
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its farcical, win toss and win the game
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