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I Win All The Tim
25 Nov 09 12:14
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Date Joined: 29 Jun 09
| Topic/replies: 2,185 | Blogger: I Win All The Tim's blog
I feel this is a lay, have lost 6 out of 6 odi's against england, who now seem to by firing on all cylinders, fair enough our bowling could improve a bit.

But with arguably our two best batsman (KP and Strauss) getting out for next to nothing, we still made easy work of Saffers in the last ODI.

If colly and trott keep up their form and our bowlers perform decently, i think england are at a very nice price.

Especially because, without fail, englands price ALWAYS ALWAYS goes to odds on at some point.

Incase you didn't realise, during the 7 match ODI series vs Aussies, the one we lost 6-1, we went odds on at some point in EVERY SINGLE MATCH.

So very likely for a decent trade out.

Just my thoughts
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Report Lix November 25, 2009 11:22 AM GMT
correct.

SA are a JOKE PRICE

HTH
Report bigjoe November 25, 2009 11:28 AM GMT
SCHHHHHHHHHHHH ;)
Report bf trader November 25, 2009 11:41 AM GMT
one of the hardest cases to make for getting involved in match odds before the toss in world cricket imo.
Report Bravado November 25, 2009 12:18 PM GMT
yeah cant get involved in this one pre toss, whoever bats first wins
Report Deadly Earnest November 25, 2009 12:20 PM GMT
Why do you assume whoever bats first wins?
Report deltaform November 25, 2009 1:33 PM GMT
I agree. SA price is stupid and im from SA. normally betfair is larger than bookies and bookies are even betting 1.57. Should be about 1.64/1.65 on here.
Report Green Beard November 25, 2009 1:42 PM GMT
day/night

and famously hard to bat under lights there
Report outsiders November 25, 2009 2:27 PM GMT
bf trader 25 Nov 12:41


one of the hardest cases to make for getting involved in match odds before the toss in world cricket imo.




from an odds and value perspective I can't understand what you mean, imo it looks one of the best situations you could ask for.

Alot of people here saying team who bats first will win...so backing england @ 2.72 now is absolutely massive value long term

basically getting 2.72 for a flip of a coin
Report johnterry 26 November 25, 2009 2:48 PM GMT
agree with that Outsiders, makes perfect sense to me
Report lbw November 25, 2009 2:55 PM GMT
yeah also agree that in % terms its the England price that is the bigger shortener on winning the toss. does someone wanna have a crack at what they thing prices are under two different win and bat scenarios?
Report I Win All The Tim November 25, 2009 3:32 PM GMT
2.5 if england win toss
2.8 if england lose toss
Report outsiders November 25, 2009 3:39 PM GMT
england will be massively shorter than 2.5 if they win the toss imo...unlikely obviously but you could see a flip flop
Report lbw November 25, 2009 3:40 PM GMT
yeah more extreme than that
I'm 2.25 and 3.00
Report good value losers November 25, 2009 3:48 PM GMT
but what if they lose the toss? LOL
Report lbw November 25, 2009 4:10 PM GMT
gvl ??
3.00 if England lose the toss
Report I Win All The Tim November 25, 2009 4:13 PM GMT
Im willing to back them at 2.7's in hope of a toss win.

Anyway, even if they lose it isnt a cert that they lose the match
Report good value losers November 25, 2009 4:19 PM GMT
oh ok gotcha, lbw. well i'm with bftrader on this. you lot can gamble on the flip of a coin, i'd rather wait and see who wins then bet.
Report Lix November 25, 2009 5:08 PM GMT
Hmmm..... Eng won the last toss though. SA therefore more likely to win this one :p
Report Deadly Earnest November 25, 2009 5:11 PM GMT
http://www.cricinfo.com/rsadomestic-09/engine/current/match/420026.html

This is a domestic 40 over match from earlier this month played at Capetown. I am unsure how the two teams line up quality wise but both have played the Warriors and both failed chasing around 215 in this comp but Dolphins made a much better fist of the chase, which is some small indication that Cobras are not necessarily miles ahead at least.

In the match I have copied the link for, Dolphins set 243 in 40 overs batting first presumably in day time conditions. The Cobras chased it 4 down in 35.2 overs presumably under lights.

It is not a total precedent to a 50 over ODI I grant, but if you look at previous 40 and 45 over day night domestic matches at this venue, especially around this time of year, then there seems to be as many teams winning batting 2nd as batting first.

Yet it is undeniable there are at least 3-4 ODI d/n results from the last 10 that are heavily skewed towards the team batting first in terms of result and/or margin.

In the rest of the last 10-12 ODI's, most of the results make sense in terms of pre match expectations I believe. Anyway, I am not convinced that the team batting first automatically wins.
Report I Win All The Tim November 25, 2009 9:52 PM GMT
No lix, england are lucky with the toss, we won about 6-1 against ozzies on the toin coss. shame we lost 6-1 on the matches ;)
Report anyother November 25, 2009 10:52 PM GMT
:^0 .. glitterati betting on the the flip of a coin
Report Mushtaq November 26, 2009 5:48 AM GMT
"Whoever bats first wins" and South Africa are 1.57, and people don't want to get involved pre-toss???

Has the coin got two heads?
Report riccardo November 26, 2009 9:18 AM GMT
"I called tails in Xhosa"...
Report good value losers November 26, 2009 9:54 AM GMT
mushtaq - guess it's the old value vs winner argument! if we assume who wins the toss wins the match and they were going to play a series of dn matches here and one side was going to be available each time at 1.57 on the coin toss then yeah, get involved pre-toss. but they aren't, so i'd rather wait and see who wins the toss then bet on the eventual winner at "poor" value lol
Report lbw November 26, 2009 10:09 AM GMT
you need to change your chatname to "poor value winner" if that's what you are going to do
Report good value losers November 26, 2009 10:25 AM GMT
lol looks like you don't get irony
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