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Injuns v Aussies... will it be 6-1 or 5-2....

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Replies: 182
By:
anyother
When: 29 Oct 09 15:04
bj comes of the rope and after a couple of left jabs delivers a classic uppercut..is there no stopping this boy ;)
By:
bigjoe
When: 29 Oct 09 15:05
B-)
By:
bombaclart
When: 29 Oct 09 15:12
is brett lee back or out for a while?
By:
offshore
When: 29 Oct 09 15:17
I dunno. You try to help some people, to point them in the right direction, to gently show them the error of thier ways, to guide them in the ways of making money on the cricket, to suggest that the smell of coffee may be to their liking, and you just get in thrown back in your face. :-(
By:
offshore
When: 29 Oct 09 15:17
*it
By:
bigjoe
When: 29 Oct 09 15:21
Don't take it personally offshore :(

Its all about debate .. good luck if you sticking to aussies :)
By:
offshore
When: 29 Oct 09 15:24
Cheers BJ. Will be sticking with the aussies - just seem to be great value at current odds.
By:
bigjoe
When: 01 Nov 09 09:01
2-1.. 4 games to go .. and taking shape imo ;)

As i suspected, delhi was always going to be a comprehansive win for injuns with them having 4 spinners for the crucial middle overs and aussies having just one and a half :(

On to mohali tomorrow .. and as i said in opening post, aussies can forget about winning there :0 .. its the opposite of delhi pitch .. a batters paradise .. and india will prove again why they are best in world because they cos they have a dream batting lineup for batting paradises.. and a dream bowling attack for bowling paradises ;)

In last game at mohali, injuns lost to pakistan :( .. BUT they posted 320 ... against a bowling attack of gul, afridi and akmal ... 320 against that attack equates to 340+ against this aussie attack .. and for tomorrows game my advice to anyone backing aussies is simple.. ONLY back them if you think they can post or chase up 340+

India SHOULD be 1.2 for tommorows "match" .. they look like being closer to 1.8 :0 .... but dont get me wrong.. i aint complaining ;)

3-1 coming up tomorrow..... and the inevitable 6-1 or 5-2 series scoreline will become a tad more inevitable ;)

Good Luck :)
By:
Deadly Earnest
When: 01 Nov 09 14:47
You don't rate Gambhir or Sehwag then Joe?
By:
bigjoe
When: 01 Nov 09 15:54
yes i do deadly ... but the reason that injuns are such a great batting team is that they can afford to carry a couple of players that maybe struggling cos they got 8 top noth batsmen where other sides have to make do with 4 or 5 :(

classic demostration in this series... aussies are losing despite their best players ponting and hussey batting well ..india are winning the series despite 2 of their main men sehwag and tedulkar are not contributing ;)

That can only be a bad omen for aussies... just imagine how onesided a game would be if both hussey and ponting fail for aussies at the same time that tendulkar and sehwag join the already in form gambhir, yuvraj, dhoni and raina ..... we could see that one sided game tommorow imo ;)
By:
bigjoe
When: 01 Nov 09 16:16
posted these on golf fred instead :(


bigjoe 01 Nov 16:04


sorry, deadly, i just noticed what you mean..... sehwag and gambhir may be doubtful

I go back to my reply earlier up the fred .. its about sqauds not teams.. in last 2 years injuns have beaten pakistan, sri lanka, windies and england at home... they beaten kiwis, aussies, sri lanka away ..... throughout those 2 years injuns have had any 2 from sehwag, yuvraj, tendulkar, zaheer, gambhir out with long term injuries... yet they still continued to win cos the replacements are already in place ... so , as far as i am concerned, the only difference if sehwag or gambhir, or both are missing tomorrow is that we will get a much bigger price .. the result will remain the same .... believe me




bigjoe 01 Nov 16:12


"worse case scenario injun batting lineup tomorrow will be:

Kartik
Tendulkar
Raina
Yuvraj
Dhoni
Kohli
Jedeja
Harbhajan

At Mohali, on yuvrajs home ground.... this remains a 340 + lineup

to further underline injuns strentgh in depth.. kohli and kartik are current incummbents in the waiting line.. behind there there are still the likes of Rohit Sharma, Uttapah, Badrinath, Murali Vijay and of course Wga

So i repeat, i do not consider india are weakened too much.. the blessing in disguise as always is that we get 1.8 on a side that wins around 75% of its ODI in last 2 years.. a winning ratio that suggests their true price should be 1.34
By:
Deadly Earnest
When: 01 Nov 09 16:52
Why is the last India v Australia ODI series in India relevant Joe?

Another thing I am interested in your view on is the Delhi match. Who do you think got the better of the conditions, the one player below full strength Indians(Zaheer) or the 7 players below full strength Australians(Haddin, Bracken, Clarke, Lee, Hopes, Ferguson, Paine)?

I went in fancying the Indians quite a lot, but I would have to confess to being a bit disappointed with their performance. They never threatened to restrict the Australians to a lower total, the first 3 Indian wickets were thrown away, and then they required the assistance of a lot of dew to win a tightish victory in the end. Perhaps we can acknowledge the pitch itself was going downhill at a rate of knots as the match wore on, but I am still interested in what you thought of the Indian performance.
By:
fundamentalist
When: 01 Nov 09 17:30
**ing a bit to include 2 keepers in your full strength side DE ;)
By:
Dado7029
When: 01 Nov 09 17:32
Arrr the odds are going down for AUstralia what a downer....I think no bet no value left here
By:
bigjoe
When: 01 Nov 09 18:54
Deadly.. as far delhi is concerned, let me answer in 2 respects.

As far as pitch conditions are concerned .. its a good job aussies won the toss as its clear that if india had first use of the pitch they would have won that game by 100 runs ;) .. fact was aussies failed to get the injun spinners away even when pitch was at its best for batting.. its safe to assume aussies would have done well to reach 160 batting second ;)

As for the aussies being understrentgh ... 2 points on that..i already told you that with wall to fall cricket these days, its teams that have strong reserves that will prevail..i am glad you acknowledge that aussies reserves are a bit thin on the ground :(

More importantly though... india have won 4 out of the last 5 odi meetings with aussies :0 .. 2 in aussieland ...3 in india .... the intering thing to note though is that in their 2 defeats to india on their own aussie pitches, the respective top 6 batting positions were occupied by the following:

Australia:

Gilchrist
haydon
ponting
clarke
symonds
hussey

India

Uttapah
Tendulkar
Gambhir
Yuvraj
Rohit sharma

So, this aussie lineup loses the cb series final 2-0 on home soil... looks quite a strong line up to me ... the injuns won 2-0 without sehwag ..... so i simply say.. take a look at that aussie lineup and tell me how on earth they lost that series 2-0.. and after you have told me that.. tell me that even if aussies were full strength for this series... why you think they would have fared any better away then they did in their backyard ';)
By:
bigjoe
When: 01 Nov 09 18:59
Fact is.. aussies in all formats against india in last 2 years have sneaked ONE win in their last 11 attempts .. they have failed to win in 10 out of those 11 games :0

Its clear to me that like it or not, india have got the measure of the aussies these days.... and excuses about players missing only serves one puprose .. indias price remains relatively generous ;)
By:
bigjoe
When: 01 Nov 09 19:01
Sorry i forgot to add dhoni to indias line ups .. here they are again...... looks like a full strentgh aussie lineup got done like kippers by a weakened injun line up in their own backyard...... GSM to me i guess ;)

Australia:

Gilchrist
haydon
ponting
clarke
symonds
hussey

India

Uttapah
Tendulkar
Gambhir
Yuvraj
Rohit sharma
Dhoni
By:
anyother
When: 01 Nov 09 19:27
of topic .. where or how exactly does "done like a kipper" originate ?
By:
Deadly Earnest
When: 01 Nov 09 19:38
What is more relevant to this series, Australia's 4-2 win last time in India in a 7 match series, or India's 3-2 result over Australia months later?

In fact, of the last 20 ODI matches between these 2 teams, all since 2006, there have been 4 no results. Of the 15 decisive matches, the score is 9-6 Australia. Of those 15 matches, 5 were played in Australia, one at a neutral venue which was won by Australia, and the other 9 in India. The score over those 9 Indian matches? 6-4 Australia.

So of the last 20 ODI's between India and Australia, ALL since late 2006, this is what happened:

In Australia - India won 3 lost 2, n/r 1

Neutral venues - India won nil, lost 1, n/r 2

In India - India won 4, lost 6, n/r 1

As an interesting aside, Australia were well on top in all 4 no results, typically looking like they were trading 1.2-1.3ish when called off.

Now, why are test matches played in India, T20's played god knows where and ranji Ghandi matches played at the Khyber Pass more relevant than those?

But wait, there is more, not a good enough sample size for you, perhaps we should go back further, if we go back to say the start of this century, the score is:

26 wins Australia
10 wins India
5 no results.

You guessed it, it doesn't end there either. All time ODI's:

58 wins Australia
34 wins India
8 no results(and we know who held sway in those) ;)

You were saying?
By:
Deadly Earnest
When: 01 Nov 09 19:43
Apologies, that is 16 decisive matches since 2006.

Scoreline is 9-7 with 4 n/r's. 10 of those were played in India, with 6-4 being Australia's advantage there.
By:
Jan1ne
When: 01 Nov 09 19:45
the aussie side has changed more significantly for the worse since the CB series.
By:
Deadly Earnest
When: 01 Nov 09 20:10
The much vaunted depth in Indian cricket hasn't proven too telling over the long haul though has it? We rip 5 or 6 out of this Indian lineup as has been done to the Australian lineup and you are into the type of also ran not good enough cricketers Joe was mentioning earlier.

Most are poor fielders, nearly all have poor discipline or are inconsistent, or simply not up to mixing it at the sharp end of international cricket.

I think Australia are well up against it here down to selecting player 18 or so on their list, in fact Manou would not be recognised as being in the best 30 or so cricketers in Australia.

For fair comparison you have to imagine something like this:

Watson
Haddin
Ponting
Clarke
Hussey
Ferguson
Hopes
Johnson
Hauritz
Lee
Siddle/Bollinger

with Bracken missing, opposing:

Vijay
Tendulkar
Rohit Sharma
Yuvraj
Raina
Jadeja
Partiv Patel
Harbhajan
Kumar
RP Singh
Nehra

Then imagine they are meeting in Australia after Australia were refreshed from a break and the Indian players had been going almost non stop for 12 months, AND 3 or 4 of the injuries happened on the current tour.

It would have been good to witness 2 teams close to full strength here. Joe claiming you need depth is fine when his team has only one missing against a team that has been on the go for 12 months virtually non stop.
By:
Innocent Bystander
When: 01 Nov 09 20:23
and they say poms whinge ;)
By:
Jan1ne
When: 01 Nov 09 20:49
Deadly Earnest 01 Nov 20:10
I think Australia are well up against it here down to selecting player 18 or so on their list, in fact Manou would not be recognised as being in the best 30 or so cricketers in Australia.


Um, well they've picked him, so that's their fault. Can't have it both ways.

And why not play Shaun Marsh?
By:
Deadly Earnest
When: 01 Nov 09 21:46
Yo miss my point Jan1ne re Manou. You could notionally be the 60th(or higher) best player in Australia but the 3rd best wicketkeeping option.

Conversely you could be the third best keeper and the 3rd best player at the other extreme. It just so happens that Australia's 3rd in line keeper at this point is not recognised as being in the best 50% of players in first class ranks if you see my point.

It's not just how many injuries you get either, it is when they strike, calling multiple players up between matches is far from ideal of course.

If Australia were to run India close from here it would tell us that this Indian team is average really.
By:
Deadly Earnest
When: 01 Nov 09 21:47
They left Marsh out for balance only. I expect he plays tomorrow.
By:
Joel
When: 02 Nov 09 02:10
How can it be 6-1? Indians have already won 2 games.
By:
Dado7029
When: 02 Nov 09 04:51
I presume the odds are assuming that the two batsmen will be missing from Indian line up?
By:
Lies, DamnLies, and Statistics
When: 02 Nov 09 05:00
deadly, you continue to let facts get in the way of a good story....
By:
bigjoe
When: 02 Nov 09 08:33
Deadly , good posts.. not cos they are relevant .. but cos they dmonstrate how most aussies are still in denial about their deline against the injuns in last 2 years ;) .... and its this self denial that continues to ensure we get 1.83 on injuns to today.. regardless of the FACT that aussies have failed to win 10 of last 11 meetings ;)

Yes we can go back more then 2 years to make the numbers look good ... but surely the best measure is the most recent games..i think last 2 yerars is a fair enough sample.. covering games in aussieland and india.. covering games where at different times, both teams had players out with injuries :(

But keep up the good work..last thing i want you and other aussie backers to do is to agree with me .. that would be disasterous as far getting 1.8 on a team thats not lost a ODI seriers in last 2 years :0

Good Luck :)
By:
Lies, DamnLies, and Statistics
When: 02 Nov 09 08:34
i don't think deadly is on the aussies today

neither am i

hth
By:
anyother
When: 02 Nov 09 08:35
bj can pull up any stat he feels like to make a point ( quite often not correct ) but it seems others cannot :0
By:
bigjoe
When: 02 Nov 09 08:47
LDLS..i am so pleased i convinced you both then :D
By:
Deadly Earnest
When: 02 Nov 09 09:03
There is actually some truth in that in my case Joe. ;)
By:
thetitan
When: 02 Nov 09 12:00
i just wanted to say i think this is a pretty good call and i am also fairly certain in the 6-1 or 5-2
By:
Only-the-Brave
When: 02 Nov 09 12:02
snap
By:
marychain1
When: 02 Nov 09 17:03
2-5?
By:
Deadly Earnest
When: 02 Nov 09 17:08
Sh yte in a fight.
By:
bigjoe
When: 02 Nov 09 18:45
i guess we know the answer now :( .. 5-2 it is then :D
By:
anyother
When: 02 Nov 09 20:22
:^0 .. showed themselves to be what they are today bj .. great talent but showponies when it comes down to it ;)
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