Therapy for losing bets

drink loads an leave the betting for a few days

i dont drink.

maybe its time to start

tell yourself you will take a good break to re-assess your strategy....


then try out your new strategy tomorrow !

the butterfly collector - I was in a boozer on Friday night that was selling Wild Rock :) At £20 a bottle :(

Quit. Every time I quit I start winning again.

In all seriousness, a short break to digest events an get your head around things is the best way I have found, and I do tend to have some awful losing streaks, so I should know.

Change of scene for even a short time can freshen your outlook right up.

change of scene is pretty tough when you're stuck where i am :|

this is hardly the end of the world for me and those who know me know that i'm not exactly going to be bringing out the pistol, it's a big loss but not as galling as my 3k loss in one game in the ICL, which

i do blame it on the bint though, as she's always around when i **k up.

does the bint place the bets?

no, but she's present and whining :|

i assume that if your staking those amounts then you are full time

in that case, what is your bird doing anywhere near your place of work

Tites has her there for the **** break

Bloody hell tites. Take a break mate. Good luck

no use when you have a break four times a match tho.

I dropped 11 bags today if it's any consolation :(

Absoloutely done my nuts in at the end of last season.

Took 3 months off and changed strategy. Was the best thing I've ever done.

thetitan

serious answer - the therapy for me is:

1. 2 days off minimum
2. Fresh air - hiking or golf best but anywhere awy from computer
3. Much smaller stakes and modest aims on return

good advise PJ.

good advise PJ.

thing is that i win plenty most of the time, then one like this gets away from me - it's profitable but lot's of horrendous losing streaks interspersed with a 20/1 winner, think i'm going away and paper-trading, back-testing for a bit. too busy otherwise with medical stuff to really be putting so much attention into this, it's 815pm now and gotta be in the operating theatre at 6am ffs.

money is there but too stressful to justify in its current form. esp with the losing streaks.

will still post around but need to think outside the box for a while, from a third persons POV at least.

operating theatre?

you a organ smuggler

nearly.

phil it doesnt make me feel one jot better, i wish it did though!

Christ wouldnt want to be on the table in the morning with your mood tites :D

Best of luck though pal. Weve all been there. Knocks your confidence

i did around 8k yesterday when action across various sites was totalled up if it makes you feel any better :| . the important thing for me isn't really the size of the loss though but the % size in proportion to the BR. That's the key. If you keep that proportion sensible it's just a bad day. and bad days will always crop up among the good ones.

as for getting over losses it depends. if it's cos i have fecked up i will often take a break. Just get my head straight. see where i went wrong and ask myself why I did it etc. if i review my positions and trading and am still happy with them it's just one of those things. can't win all the time. sometimes wickets just fall repeatedly after you bat the batting team for example. or you get 4 silly run outs. or crazy ump decisions. (or you're relying on tony romo ;-) )

always good to have regular breaks anyway as i find it keeps me interested and fresh. Hope you come back in winning form and don't catch anything nasty letting that steam off. :0 :D

Was a really weird day today.
I am not to disappointed as shiit happens sometimes.
Onwards and upwards :)
Fwiw I am sure you will be a long term winner tt, and the same goes for you bftrader.

when you take a break always keep an eye on the markets, you never know what opportunity you may miss otherwise

when i loss big amount i feel very sick and dissy i sleep very early and slep whole next day no sex as well.

Lump on 49s @2.0 and all is sorted. A mug post, I know, but fortunately for you a cast-iron 2.0 bet has come around. Please abuse me if this doesn't come in. :-)

Hope you come back in winning form and don't catch anything nasty letting that steam off.

--------

once burned...twice castrated. :D :0 :_|

Sorry to here this TT.

Good advice from PJ.

Sorry for disappointing you JF but hammering 49ers. Not trying to offer a martingale solution. A break and clearing the mind is definitely the best advise just have an evens bet which I believe should be 1.5 kicking off in 40 mins. Sometimes the usual/obvious path is not the one to take. One should be open to exceptions as it usually makes the difference imo

Think JF was refering to Tites there. will have a few quid on the 49ers anyway though :)

Expect to be abused if they lose!

why has there been such a huge drift on 49ers?

Crossed wires TopTier refering to Titan.

I'll have a go on the 49ers.

Betfair adjusting to the Vegas spreads.

Is this on Sky ?

top up at 3.6?

are they losing? :_|

14-0 :|

That's not good is it?

lol, a disaster 1st two plays. 14-7. Looks like it will have to be a 1.25 and upwards. Sit tight guys.

after a big loss i either go on a booze bender, or play tennis against a wall in my garden, quite a contrast really

redded out . £45 lost. Cheers TT :(

Only kidding mate. making plenty on the snooker ! :)

ffs Lix, 49ers are getting on top here. Very possibly up at HT. Defense sorted, offense getting going. Crazy oing red at 1.75 or so.

Shower for me then bed. Takes me 24 hours to leave my mind and then small steaks for day or two.

When I have a big loss I take an immediate step back, look at the bigger picture of long term profit and realise it's easy come easy go on the whole and that I could be much worse off - out of work, on the breadline that sort of thing.

I'll then look to get straight back into it but will ensure I am 100% focused and am not overstaking or chasing.

The first win following a loss gets you back on the right track and back into the right mentality even if it only covers a fraction of your previous loss.

Birchola 11 Oct 23:16
I could be much worse off - out of work, on the breadline that sort of thing.

You're getting married soon, mate. Then you'll be thinking, "No, I couldn't be any worse off."

What a bum tip. Appropriate with this thread I suppose. :-(

Let the grudge go M & P. You cant take your hatred of the fairer sex to your grave no matter how bad she was! :^0

49rs :(

Had a shocker trading that one. A good day turned horrid :^0

Birch - I love the way you talk as if it was one woman. It was several women!

As for getting over losing bets, taking a step back is the most obvious (and wisest) thing to do. Whether you go and get twátted on ale, play golf or lock yourself in a darkened room, the main thing is you take a break from betting.

When someone has so much aggression towards woman I'd tip the boy has issues with his mother. Doubtlessly unhealthy whatever the source is.

45-10 and counting. Serious head in hands called for. You got to laugh if you don't cry.

45-17 hopefully

am on 100/pt :(

I only bet on cricket, and generally, I do VERY well. However, sometimes a stupid decision, or the**etc. cost me money. When i lose alot, I do certain things which are not good. For example, I lay the boot into my dog. Look, I love the little critter, but seriously, the way he looks at me after a loss...he just doesn't care. So i punish him. And then i feel better. I have also been known to eat a tropical fish straight out of the tank. While this may sound a bit over the top, it is ok, if you remember that Sushi tastes twice as bad.

yet another VERY GOOD punter. coincidentally all the mug must not use the forum.

Horrible, horrible Sunday. Gave back all of Saturday and quite a bit more. You have my sympathy and unfortunately empathy as well. As several people have already said the best thing to do is take a break. I always end up wondering why I have done stupid things but unfortunately it doesn't seem to stop me doing them again. Very frustrated this morning.

BTW I plead ignorance. "What is a green beard"?

Never consider a losing bet as an individual occurence to greive over :( ... see it as a tiny part of an overall strategy where you EXPECT losing bets... but that you have enough confidence that your strategy will see you in consistent profit overall over a period of time.. that period of time should be at least one year ..... If you do not have a strategy that you are not confident of making a profit after all those EXPECTED losses have occured.. Give up the game... find some birds or booze to waste you money on :D

you mean, Beejay, it's a marathon not a sprint ;)

Yep Ted ;)

"What is a Green Beard"?............

Green Beard episodes of massive wins followed by massive losses are now forum legend.
Usually when he loses 10K iin a day he decides its time to take time off and heads off on a cruise ship to lick his wounds.

is greenbeard still around?

He's travelling round the world. was in SE Asia last time . probably onto Aus/S America now.

expect some more people need losing therapy after that somerset game :0

vwe horrible da for me it took alot m blood and so confused and frustrated. i lost 30k got 12k back on another match i dotn bet more then 5k but i was so confident on summerset
i wish i can get m mone back soon pra for me guys i am feelings so dizzy and wana sleep as much as possible .dont wana eat anthign onl drinking water

standard

APB put out for Master mind.

All you can do is tune into Countdown and pretend you are Rachel Riley's dresser

looks like the way tehtitan tries to get over his big losses is to go onto other phorums and call people mugs. who's the mug, mug?

twitter.com/gsmtitan please check that for record over 50 bets

compared to GVL's twitter which he discontinued after receiving abuse after losing 10 in a row :^0

lol nah you have the stalker aka fluffs to thank for that

i dont really do losing bets, but if i did, the main thing would be not to blame myself, and just accept that the events were always going to happen, and were in fact pretty obvious, and next time, crack onto those

Green Beard - if you don't do losing bets, can you let me know how you do that? I am finding the losers I back are seriously decreasing my profits.

It's funny, I had been bowling along ok, then the CL final derailed me pretty badly, in fact, horribly. I now officially hate Brett Lee, Steve Smith, NSW, chop ons, wickets from poor deliveries slapped straight to fielders, illogical cricket, teams who don't drop tricky catches when you need them to, Daryl Harper, Lalit Modi, the people who won my money off me and sundry others.

There is little doubt that hating is the best therapy for losing bets. That, or be like GB and don't make them in the first place. :)

Of all people to get carried away on the TNT bandwagon its Deadly :0

is that some more of GB's now famous 'irony' :^0

Deadly, surely as a die-hard Vic fan you didnt oppose NSW in the final? As a Taff, I always used to back Wales to beat Eng in the 6N even though we were shyte at the time :|

Basically had 4 bets in the final Ted.

Trini most 6's, watched in horror as NSW kept hitting sixes without making too many other runs, the worst case scenario.

NSW to win at 1.78 after the toss. Watched in horror as they kept gifting wickets away until they had little or no realistically dangerous batting resources left still miles short of a defendable total.

NSW to make over 170, this bet was cactus very early on. This and the 6's bet were aggressively staked for what I still feel were good reasons.

When NSW were out of dangerous batsmen I reasoned the last 2 reasonable partnerships would have to consolidate to ensure they had 130-140 to defend. Even 140 was not enough is I figured it, so it from that point you were looking at Trini needing absolutley everything to go maximally wrong from that point to lose. I switched the NSW green to big NSW red and samll Trini green and had a little on Trini supremacy at 28 as well. The rest is history of course.

Immediately after the match I was pretty disgusted as this was my largest loss ever on an individual match. In hindsight I feel I was on the right side of the value, Trini were around 1.35 to get 140 imo, and that appeared the maximum NSW were getting at the point I switched.

Sometimes things just fall against the value and I am satisfied this is what happened here against each of my 4 moves, and I have digested the loss and will be doing all I can to ensure the cricketers co-operate with my bets in future. ;)

BTW, well done on landing the NSW series bet there, I was on the Vics and Trini from an early point though didn't get anywhere near as much as I wanted matched on Trini at good odds. I couldn't really split the Oz teams so went for the one at longer odds. I could only describe the Vics efforts as very disappointing though they never got to see either a soft opponent or a good pitch.

That final will haunt me for a while, I'm glad there are not too many matches like that.

thetitan 26 Oct 10:18
jason**i am now 6k ahead of my 300k for 2009 target, so dumb or clever, i've just bought another 2 bed flat in putney wharf.


:^0

Amazed that veteran traders/betters can get unrailed on one match. Discipline, i.e exposure, is the all and everything. Exposing yourself whether it is a final or pre-tournie warm-up is irrelevant. Can happen but imo the only excuse is that you inexcusably spun off from your usual game and know you only have yourself to blame. Sorry for the hard truth.

Wise words TT. Most of my betting strategy turns on well targetted aggression. It is of course entirely feasible that you have an aggressive bet on a 1.4 shot after assessing the chances of victory as 80% and it gets beaten without you having done anything wrong at all. Afterall, it has a 20% chance of getting beaten, right?

I lost about 40% of my tournament profits on this match, upon review I didn't overstake any individual move, it was just that every move I made got max punishment. I couldn't find a point to cut losses that I liked, ie, Trinidad always appeared value to me, and cutting against value is not a winning strategy in the long term.

Managing things this way means you need to digest some horrible losses from time to time but I'm not convinced it is wrong.

Lumping on short odds is not my bread and butter strategy but I will do it from time to time where I can see what I consider clear value.

The last two I had similar bets on were England to chase 170 odd in the 7th ODI v Aus at around 1.3, and NSW to beat Somerset pre match at around 1.44. The combined profits from those two bets that I attacked with bigger stakes than here left me with a surplus accross the 3 bets of maybe 5-6% of the total amounts staked.

What can never be known for certain is what was the correct probability of Trinidad winning from the point NSW were 5 down, then 6 down. I thought about 80%ish give or take at the time, the market was indicating closer to 70% on average. Who was correct? These are the glorious questions punters have to wrestle with.

Runs are worth more in finals imo.Different pressure altogether. As a general rule of thumb (which I've just made up :) ) I'd add another 10% to a score in a final to assertain its true value. thus NSW's score of 159 would becomes more like 175. Would you back a side like NSW to defend 175 at 1.80+ . Of course you would.

Very wise words Alf reckons there Lix.

Two problems with that Lix.

1. What is the evidence to support your assertion that runs are worth more in finals? It is not the sort of theory I would shape a betting strategy around unless there was solid evidence to support it. The sort of evidence I would take notice of is if finals in tournaments have been shown to be generally lower scoring over time, if there was a larger incidence of teams batting first winning rather than teams batting second etc. The last 11 T20 finals I could find saw the following results:

Sussex 172 v Somerset 109

Sri Lanka 136 v Pak 2/139

Lahore 150 v Sialkot 6/151

Deccan 143 v Bangalore 137

Westerns 116 v Northerns 9/112(Zim)

Victoria 166 v NSW 6/167

Pak 132 v SL 133/5 (in Canada)

Karachi 125 v Sialkot 126/3

Cobras 147 v Eagles 125

Basnahira South 144 v Wayamba 5/149

England 99 v Stanford Superstars 101/0


Seven batting second wins. When team batting first scored over 150(3 times) they won only one of those. I mean, it is not a huge sample, but I would be interested in exactly what you base your theory upon, if not recent T20 finals.


2. The markets were showing about 20/1 for NSW to score 160 when they were 6 down from memory. When I placed my bets NSW appeared almost certain to score under 140 in any event by my reckoning. Brett Lee made a mess of my assessment of course.

DE

it was a value price imo, that 1.4 was certainly not one that you'd be laying and personally i refused to lay off at those prices. one more wicket and we'd have seen 1.24 no probs. it was just one of those freak performances, 49 off 25 from your no 8 is beyond freakish, it was just tremendously strange.

think some therapy needed for the 1000/1 layer in the NZ/Pak game, oh, and the 1.0x backers etc etc. Got out of goal though, but sure some bums scolded in the process. An astonishing tennis match this evening involving an injurred frog who went on to win 'comfortably' :0

:|

:| :| :|

"titan, we were doing so well in your therapy until just then"