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Foul and a miss!
04 Nov 09 12:32
Date Joined: 28 Nov 07
| Topic/replies: 34 | Blogger: Foul and a miss!'s blog
I am about to undertake a project looking into dismissal methods in both the 50over and T20 formats and would welcome anyone who can recommend some sites that can provide some good analysis. With the introduction of batting powerplays and the growing influence that T20 brings it strikes me that there may be some value to be had. An example of this might be: Two death bowlers bought back to bowl during the batting powerplay would imo push out the chances of a batsman being caught to a price that should be odds against (dependent on whos batting of course) yet with most books yet it is nearly always odds on (regardless whos batting). Anyway any assistance or comments on this matter would be appreciated.
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Report Deadly Earnest November 4, 2009 12:55 PM GMT
Foul, from your post I get that you are thinking quite clearly about probablities v odds. If you start taking meaningful amounts from bookies over an anomoly like this you will quickly educate them as to the correct probabilities of the next wicket being caught. In the alternative, if there is a weight of losing bets stopping them from altering their odds, they will limit or ban you. If you don't intend to take meaningful amounts from them, it may be that the game is not worth the candle so to speak.

Having said that, good luck as this is an example of the sort of thinking that will make you cash in the long run imo.
Report Foul and a miss! November 4, 2009 1:14 PM GMT
Deadly, agreed that exploiting an anomaly will only result in restrictions or a price change yet whilst the anomaly exists, why not have a go. I have already compiled figures relating to Test dismissals yet cannot find a stats database that allow dismissal method/over no. or powerplay analysis.
Report Yossarrian November 4, 2009 3:24 PM GMT
F & M, you can compile your own stats database surely. You knwo where to find the scorecards and innings commentary

You are right btw. Some firms don't seem to change their NDM prices from when there are spinners and a deep set field in the middle overs, to when fast-bowler yorker specialists are brought back and bowl at the stumps
Report Foul and a miss! November 4, 2009 3:39 PM GMT
Yossarrian, I can indeed compile some stats in the way you mention. I was just hoping somebody knew of a database where cross referencing/filtering various variables (certain bowlers etc) is possible making life a little easier. Anyhow thanks for your reply.
Report Jan1ne November 4, 2009 4:13 PM GMT
apart from cricinfo?
Report Foul and a miss! November 4, 2009 4:43 PM GMT
Tried cricinfo, no good!
Report LuckyDay November 4, 2009 4:46 PM GMT
How about ?
Report Foul and a miss! November 4, 2009 4:48 PM GMT
Cheers LD, will give it a go
Report plainmoor layer November 5, 2009 1:00 AM GMT
Worth remembering as well that those responsible for the price anomalies you are seeking to exploit hang out in these sort of places ---
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