EU Ref: Which of these scenarios is more likely?

Sadly for me its the latter.

The no borders merchants will win.

Interesting polls discussion on sky news showed remain winning on one poll done via phone

another poll conducted via email/online showed the leave camp winning.

Pollster stated the difference may be people being nervous of what reaction they may get if stating they wanted to leave.


There was a similar bounce in the general election from people who were nervous about publicly stating they wanted to vote Tory

it's true RQ if anyone says even the slightest thing now that the left don't like they're racist. It really does frighten some people, especially the older generation, because this has been thrown at them for years.

I do think the polls are lying...


Either leavers saying remain cos they don't want to be tagged as racists, or remainers saying leave cos they don't want to be attacked by racists.

There was a poll out yesterday (Survation I think) and they had something like 46/45 for Remain. They they pushed the undecideds to say that if they had to vote right now, what would they vote. That brought the vote to 50.4/49.6 Remain (or something like that).

The conclusion from this one poll of a few people was that undecideds are very slightly likely to vote Leave.

The point I have is that these polls are likely conducted by students. "Go out and ask 1000 people what they think" - so the students go around the student bars getting opinions. I know they say that does not happen, but...