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19 Jun 15
11:23
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Date Joined:
29 Aug 06
What will be the effects on the stockmarket ,will deffo have a fairly sharp drop imo ,will it be more that 1k points iyo ?
notice very early today there was a initial large bounce ...quite strange imo ,anyway the question is how far will stocks drop and how quick will they recover if Greece exits ,which looks very likely ,if they then manage to claw their way out and avoid total meltdown it could pave the way for others and lead to a very uncertain times .
will this be reflected in banking stock ect and lead to a large market reaction ?
notice very early today there was a initial large bounce ...quite strange imo ,anyway the question is how far will stocks drop and how quick will they recover if Greece exits ,which looks very likely ,if they then manage to claw their way out and avoid total meltdown it could pave the way for others and lead to a very uncertain times .
will this be reflected in banking stock ect and lead to a large market reaction ?
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nothing will happen i my guess. Any news will be leaked like fook onto the markets before any announcement
Market loves a bit of downward movement on uncertainty
Most will already be factored in. Might actually please the markets to get the uncertainty out of the way. Certainly wont fall by a 1000 points!
Deposit outflows in Greek banks are likely to accelerate, increasing the pressure on the government to introduce capital controls.
Meanwhile, increasing uncertainty regarding the outcome of the negotiations will result in higher volatility in Eurozone financial markets (most likely through pressurizing bond yields in the southern periphery countries), as well as weighing down on confidence levels.
not sure but not impossible that the ftse could be used as a safe haven and do ok but ftse is heavy on banks and they will deffo be affected imo ,if euro markets drop so will ftse imo
todays early bounce was prob due to Chinese markets closing 6% down imo ....but why the bounce ?
Meanwhile, increasing uncertainty regarding the outcome of the negotiations will result in higher volatility in Eurozone financial markets (most likely through pressurizing bond yields in the southern periphery countries), as well as weighing down on confidence levels.
not sure but not impossible that the ftse could be used as a safe haven and do ok but ftse is heavy on banks and they will deffo be affected imo ,if euro markets drop so will ftse imo
todays early bounce was prob due to Chinese markets closing 6% down imo ....but why the bounce ?
we are already seeing the effect as if greece are leaving imo.
if they dont expect the 200+ points to be put back on.
if they do go or there is more trouble expect to see another 100 or so point being shed.
the big problems hits when the eurozone picks up not when it falls imo
if they dont expect the 200+ points to be put back on.
if they do go or there is more trouble expect to see another 100 or so point being shed.
the big problems hits when the eurozone picks up not when it falls imo
It goes without saying that the market manipulators will use any news to swing the market about.
That's how they make their money.
As for the long term the crucial part is the effect that leaving would have on company profits.
Look at this drop starting on the 29 May.
Each time the shares reach the level of an old bottom to the left of the chart there is a minor rally.
Today's action is the third rally in the series.
What that tells us is that there are still plenty of bulls about in this market.
The sobering thought at the moment though is who was doing the selling above the 7000 mark that wasn't interested in the upside from there.
If this rally fails the next support level is below 6400.
That's how they make their money.
As for the long term the crucial part is the effect that leaving would have on company profits.
Look at this drop starting on the 29 May.
Each time the shares reach the level of an old bottom to the left of the chart there is a minor rally.
Today's action is the third rally in the series.
What that tells us is that there are still plenty of bulls about in this market.
The sobering thought at the moment though is who was doing the selling above the 7000 mark that wasn't interested in the upside from there.
If this rally fails the next support level is below 6400.
todays early bounce was prob due to Chinese markets closing 6% down imo ....but why the bounce ?
Absolutely not bread and butter.
Todays bounce was due to the buying which is apparent over the three days previous.
With punters jumping in on the strength of that.
Absolutely not bread and butter.
Todays bounce was due to the buying which is apparent over the three days previous.
With punters jumping in on the strength of that.
Grexit has not actually been 'safely' factored in.
It's just been accounted for given the relative probability that traders think it has of happening.
Markets will still fall on Grexit, but should rise if they stay in, should anyone believe it's any more than a stopgap. If all information is leaked before any announcement, then you might expect all price movements to have been made beforehand.
It's just been accounted for given the relative probability that traders think it has of happening.
Markets will still fall on Grexit, but should rise if they stay in, should anyone believe it's any more than a stopgap. If all information is leaked before any announcement, then you might expect all price movements to have been made beforehand.
Why should an event like Grexit change the direction of the index?
Sure they'll mark the index down on bad news purely to shake people out of perfectly good positions, then either mark them back up pretty sharpish or carry on with the medicine until they've taken a good lot more back before they do.
If company profits aren't likely to be affected then why should their shares fall?
Sure they'll mark the index down on bad news purely to shake people out of perfectly good positions, then either mark them back up pretty sharpish or carry on with the medicine until they've taken a good lot more back before they do.
If company profits aren't likely to be affected then why should their shares fall?
Index will be dragged down by banking right offs imo ,if euro falls and pound rises exports will be damaged ect ect
possabilties of major stress on one or two euro banks as well could cause ripples ....its not an exact science and as we all know from the last crash knock on effects are something of an unknown due to lack of transparancy in the financial sector .
possabilties of major stress on one or two euro banks as well could cause ripples ....its not an exact science and as we all know from the last crash knock on effects are something of an unknown due to lack of transparancy in the financial sector .
greek debt has been 'socialised/nationalised' within european states. The banks wont be affected imo
since when ,if that was the case there would not be an issue ....whats all the fuss about then ?
there will be fallout imo .
the banks are being emptied as we speak
there will be fallout imo .
the banks are being emptied as we speak
a weakening euro isnt enough....
yeah some rightly will look to move abroad but long term workers will have to wait a year or so till the job market starts to fire up a bit faster.
the ftse gets stung when that happens....not from the greek exit f it happens imo
our economy has been based on low wages and big population.
wages are rising a bit.
take away customers for businesses....!!!!!!
yeah some rightly will look to move abroad but long term workers will have to wait a year or so till the job market starts to fire up a bit faster.
the ftse gets stung when that happens....not from the greek exit f it happens imo
our economy has been based on low wages and big population.
wages are rising a bit.
take away customers for businesses....!!!!!!
If a major upheaval is in prospect like the financial crisis, then
it might be wise to simply trade the market as you see it at the moment.
It falters in May anyway as the old saying goes.
You might not be missing much if you're on the side lines until the autumn if that's the case.
it might be wise to simply trade the market as you see it at the moment.
It falters in May anyway as the old saying goes.
You might not be missing much if you're on the side lines until the autumn if that's the case.
Queue for ATM inside Greek parliament. Grexit is a coming
its like saying everything is factored into a market here ,does not stop movement when things that might happen actually happen .
FTSE dropped to a five month low yester ,Pound to Euro getting high as well ,ftse must go further south if grexit happens ,market hates uncertainty
FTSE dropped to a five month low yester ,Pound to Euro getting high as well ,ftse must go further south if grexit happens ,market hates uncertainty
found this nugget ....
Greece 93 percent certain to keep euro this year, Betfair Says
By Dara Doyle
Gamblers increasingly see Greece staying in the euro-region, Betfair Group Plc said, amid optimism a deal can be sealed to keep aid flowing to Athens.
Betfair put the odds of Greece not leaving the eurozone this year at 1/14, meaning a successful 14 pound bet wins 1 pound in London on Tuesday, compared with 1/5 on Monday. Those odds imply a 93 percent chance Greece will keep the euro, Betfair said.
“Punters have clearly made up their mind that Greece will stay in the eurozone, for the remainder of this year at least,” said Naomi Totten, a spokeswoman for Betfair.
Betting markets can provide clues to the direction of events. So certain was Betfair of the outcome of the Scottish independence referendum last year, it paid out on a “no” vote two days before the ballot even after polls suggesting a tight contest had sent the pound tumbling.
Paddy Power Plc, Ireland’s largest bookmaker, puts the odds of Greece adopting an official currency other than the euro by the end of 2017 at 4/5, meaning a 5 euro bet wins 4 euros, compared with 4/6 on Monday.
Greece 93 percent certain to keep euro this year, Betfair Says
By Dara Doyle
Gamblers increasingly see Greece staying in the euro-region, Betfair Group Plc said, amid optimism a deal can be sealed to keep aid flowing to Athens.
Betfair put the odds of Greece not leaving the eurozone this year at 1/14, meaning a successful 14 pound bet wins 1 pound in London on Tuesday, compared with 1/5 on Monday. Those odds imply a 93 percent chance Greece will keep the euro, Betfair said.
“Punters have clearly made up their mind that Greece will stay in the eurozone, for the remainder of this year at least,” said Naomi Totten, a spokeswoman for Betfair.
Betting markets can provide clues to the direction of events. So certain was Betfair of the outcome of the Scottish independence referendum last year, it paid out on a “no” vote two days before the ballot even after polls suggesting a tight contest had sent the pound tumbling.
Paddy Power Plc, Ireland’s largest bookmaker, puts the odds of Greece adopting an official currency other than the euro by the end of 2017 at 4/5, meaning a 5 euro bet wins 4 euros, compared with 4/6 on Monday.
Unless you are a currency trader, buy them when you need them
Still think the Greeks will agree to something - there's no jobs for young people and where else are they going to the money to pay the pensions, etc.
could well be, they are still members of european union, so have rights to move where ever they want in EU. EU containing a failed chaotic state with a currency days old, should be interesting to say the least 
Excellent. Might get a decent chippy..
not if the germans bomb em again.
not if the germans bomb em again.
breadnbutter,
yes of course there will be market movement as a result of Grexit but this will be a market correction based on rational expectations of this event occurring rather than a crash which is usually the result of fear and panic.
Grexit has been on the cards for a very long time so the markets will not be unduly spooked.
yes of course there will be market movement as a result of Grexit but this will be a market correction based on rational expectations of this event occurring rather than a crash which is usually the result of fear and panic.
Grexit has been on the cards for a very long time so the markets will not be unduly spooked.
the word Grexit only appeared in the last fortnight
So much that could be said about it all ,like the initial opposition from the Germans to Greece ever being allowed to join ,to the attitude of the Greek MPs ,saying things like its a Euro currency problemo not a Greek problemo .
Good job they used diff codes on each countries banknotes imo
all the talk of creditors taking a haircut is rather hollow when we dont actually know who will be exposed to what ,including the Bonds ,its all clearly being played down in many places ,and maybe rightly so but the implications are still far from being crytal clear.
Interesting that they are holding meetings on a Sunday .
Its a Mexican standoff now with a it going to a vote ,still think that the fallout could be serious for confidence in the Euro and this is really what the Greeks will be hoping for ,a severe haircut on debt and repayments and more loans ect ect ect ect .
But if this happens its going to affect others that are doing the right thing and paying ,likewise if the Greeks can walk away and stick two fingers up ....well where does that leave things ?
DC quickly went quiet about the EU negotiations did he not ? hmmmm ....me thinks there is a lot at steak here .
Whats your worst case scenario for ftse ?
So much that could be said about it all ,like the initial opposition from the Germans to Greece ever being allowed to join ,to the attitude of the Greek MPs ,saying things like its a Euro currency problemo not a Greek problemo .
Good job they used diff codes on each countries banknotes imo
all the talk of creditors taking a haircut is rather hollow when we dont actually know who will be exposed to what ,including the Bonds ,its all clearly being played down in many places ,and maybe rightly so but the implications are still far from being crytal clear.
Interesting that they are holding meetings on a Sunday .
Its a Mexican standoff now with a it going to a vote ,still think that the fallout could be serious for confidence in the Euro and this is really what the Greeks will be hoping for ,a severe haircut on debt and repayments and more loans ect ect ect ect .
But if this happens its going to affect others that are doing the right thing and paying ,likewise if the Greeks can walk away and stick two fingers up ....well where does that leave things ?
DC quickly went quiet about the EU negotiations did he not ? hmmmm ....me thinks there is a lot at steak here .
Whats your worst case scenario for ftse ?
Grexit been around since 2012.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_withdrawal_from_the_eurozone
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_withdrawal_from_the_eurozone
Whatever drop there is in the ftse, it will be recovered in days if not weeks.
Going to Greece at the end of July. What currency will I need and if its going to be the euro should I buy now or wait?
I take some groceries
and booze
The shops will be empty
and booze
The shops will be empty
for paddletoe
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/travel-advice/11635549/Should-holidaymakers-to-Greece-be-worried-about-a-Grexit.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/travel-advice/11635549/Should-holidaymakers-to-Greece-be-worried-about-a-Grexit.html
200 point drop over 2 days ....recovered in a few days.
the real problems should be in a year or so when eu migration reverses due to the eurozone picking up.
the real problems should be in a year or so when eu migration reverses due to the eurozone picking up.
Going to very northern Greece so it probably wont be like Athens if any street protests start.
You want to ask Goldman Sachs. They know a lot about this. Check out who sits on the various banking organisation boards
pretty steady on the markets. some movement nothing extra-ordinary
There is talk that the Greeks might move more towards the Russians if they exit the Euro. This will put the cat amongst the pigeons.
Juncker "I like the Greeks very much & I tell them they shouldn't commit suicide because of fear of dying. They should say yes to Europe"
implying the referendum is a choice between suicide or death.
implying the referendum is a choice between suicide or death.
According to Greg Palast IMF/World Bank loans have an average of 111 conditions attached.
How are they going to pay us back? I reckon we should take one or two islands as a down payment
I wish Rightmove would update their pages.
Looked at a place in Portugal yesterday, this can't be right.
145,000 Euros or £82,125
Looked at a place in Portugal yesterday, this can't be right.
145,000 Euros or £82,125
the MoU has over 1000 conditions, but that is old troika, and they want to fook that off. World bank is not involved in bailing out countries
Oi Brendan i've got a few Drachma (ouzo stained - i think) stowed away, do ye think they will change the note when it comes back?
who knows, might be quickest if the original printing plates still exist i suppose
should be a bit of fun.
think another 100 pts knocked off the ftse maybe 200.
then the usual rise.
see it heading back to 7000 by the autumn.
then get out as i see big problems ahead
think another 100 pts knocked off the ftse maybe 200.
then the usual rise.
see it heading back to 7000 by the autumn.
then get out as i see big problems ahead
....any sign of trouble Draghi will simply up the QE...in both quantity and scope.....he already expanded the scope of the bond assets that could be purchased.. did this on July 2nd..coincidence??
(socialise bad debts/poor investments/losses...never done for profits though...strange that)
..anyway while QE is up and running I don't expect any major shocks....
..unless something hidden away unwinds....which they may blame on Greece anyway....
..like the 55 trillion euros in derivatives Deutschebank is holding (around 75 trillion US dollars) start to unwind!!!
To put this in perspective German GDP output is around 3 trillion euros and the Eurozone as a whole 10 trillion euros.....yikes!!!
..but I agree with G1Jockey there is huge trouble ahead....a systemic breakdown in the financial system sooner or later imo...where fiat currency essentially becomes worthless and a reset has to take place.....
I see it later....I think in the Autumn or by next spring the Fed will fire up QE 4....which together with the ECB QE will kick the can and delay the inevitable for a while at least.......yep.
After all....you cant taper a Ponzi scheme!!!!
Oh...and as an aside.......Interest rates can never return to "normal"...all Western governments KNOW this.....even a modest rise in rates will blow the bond markets and make repayments unsustainable.
We are in effect in a managed recession/bordering on depression.....once all QE stops and/or interest are forced to normal....just as taking a patient who doesn't look too bad on intensive care off support....
..the true nature of the patient is revealed!!!!
(socialise bad debts/poor investments/losses...never done for profits though...strange that)
..anyway while QE is up and running I don't expect any major shocks....
..unless something hidden away unwinds....which they may blame on Greece anyway....
..like the 55 trillion euros in derivatives Deutschebank is holding (around 75 trillion US dollars) start to unwind!!!
To put this in perspective German GDP output is around 3 trillion euros and the Eurozone as a whole 10 trillion euros.....yikes!!!
..but I agree with G1Jockey there is huge trouble ahead....a systemic breakdown in the financial system sooner or later imo...where fiat currency essentially becomes worthless and a reset has to take place.....
I see it later....I think in the Autumn or by next spring the Fed will fire up QE 4....which together with the ECB QE will kick the can and delay the inevitable for a while at least.......yep.
After all....you cant taper a Ponzi scheme!!!!
Oh...and as an aside.......Interest rates can never return to "normal"...all Western governments KNOW this.....even a modest rise in rates will blow the bond markets and make repayments unsustainable.
We are in effect in a managed recession/bordering on depression.....once all QE stops and/or interest are forced to normal....just as taking a patient who doesn't look too bad on intensive care off support....
..the true nature of the patient is revealed!!!!
shanghai stock market down 1.5 trillion in three weeks ,Euro starting to do the job it was created for
a few more tweeks and Eureka Europa
UK interest rates cant rise for the foreseeable ,more cuts a good thing ,cruel to be kind .
ffs egner ...thats a lot to digest ,....profits are never socialized ,they are only ever privatised
a few more tweeks and Eureka Europa
UK interest rates cant rise for the foreseeable ,more cuts a good thing ,cruel to be kind .
ffs egner ...thats a lot to digest ,....profits are never socialized ,they are only ever privatised
If Draghi wants more QE, the Germans will leave the euro and go back to the mark. Without QE Spain and Italy would be in same boat as Greece.
"If Draghi wants more QE, the Germans will leave the euro and go back to the mark. Without QE Spain and Italy would be in same boat as Greece"
..yes acc...and may still be in the same boat even with QE if certain off balance sheet liabilities crystallize for some of their or other Eurozone countries banks.
..Germans will be loathe to go back to the Mark and finish off the euro project imo...their economy..... and especially their exports have benefitted soooo much from the Euro....
..so may even say at the detriment of the weaker countries!!!!
..yes acc...and may still be in the same boat even with QE if certain off balance sheet liabilities crystallize for some of their or other Eurozone countries banks.
..Germans will be loathe to go back to the Mark and finish off the euro project imo...their economy..... and especially their exports have benefitted soooo much from the Euro....
..so may even say at the detriment of the weaker countries!!!!
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