New Posts For Thread: PETER HITCHENS " numbers just dont add up"https://community.betfair.com/chit_chat/go/thread/view/94038/31642003/peter-hitchens-numbers-just-dont-add-upThe death numbers that just don't add upWhat do the daily death figures, supposedly from Covid-19, really mean? People who don't know that 1,600 people die normally every day, and who don't study the sombre official figures, or listen carefully to whSlow process to get the death registration process complete for those outside of hospital, especially if they hadn’t been seen by a doctor in the last 28 days. There was a piece about it on C4 news.https://community.betfair.com/chit_chat/go/thread/view/94038/31642003/peter-hitchens-numbers-just-dont-add-up?post_id=559173883#559173883Slow process to get the death registration process complete for those outside of hospital, especially if they hadn’t been seen by a doctor in the last 28 days. There was a piece about it on C4 news.Tue, 14 Apr 2020 16:43:31 -0500Our fogures don't make sense average cases in care homes between 45 -54% of deaths,if you applied that to our figures we should have 5400 extra at least yet we are sitting on 2200 which obviously can't all be from corona..We have have been sending thhttps://community.betfair.com/chit_chat/go/thread/view/94038/31642003/peter-hitchens-numbers-just-dont-add-up?post_id=559173793#559173793Our fogures don't make sense average cases in care homes between 45 -54% of deaths,if you applied that to our figures we should have 5400 extra at least yet we are sitting on 2200 which obviously can't all be from corona..We have have been sending thTue, 14 Apr 2020 16:22:56 -0500Whilst there are a huge number of variables at play, the case and death progression between Italy and the UK is very similar.A bit worried about tomorrow’s numbers though, suspect we’ll get a delayed weekend lag.The info regarding Scottish care hhttps://community.betfair.com/chit_chat/go/thread/view/94038/31642003/peter-hitchens-numbers-just-dont-add-up?post_id=559173769#559173769Whilst there are a huge number of variables at play, the case and death progression between Italy and the UK is very similar.A bit worried about tomorrow’s numbers though, suspect we’ll get a delayed weekend lag.The info regarding Scottish care hTue, 14 Apr 2020 16:18:06 -0500My betting systems usually have an ensemble of 100-200 models to pick a value selection.Maybe instead of using him they should have put the data on Kaggle and got a wide range of views rather than just this one guy.https://community.betfair.com/chit_chat/go/thread/view/94038/31642003/peter-hitchens-numbers-just-dont-add-up?post_id=559173763#559173763My betting systems usually have an ensemble of 100-200 models to pick a value selection.Maybe instead of using him they should have put the data on Kaggle and got a wide range of views rather than just this one guy.Tue, 14 Apr 2020 16:17:08 -0500i think at one stage it was just his model being used but one form the london school of hygiene and tropical medicine is now in place as well.https://community.betfair.com/chit_chat/go/thread/view/94038/31642003/peter-hitchens-numbers-just-dont-add-up?post_id=559173733#559173733i think at one stage it was just his model being used but one form the london school of hygiene and tropical medicine is now in place as well.Tue, 14 Apr 2020 16:08:31 -0500if he is the best, what do the records of the others look likehttps://community.betfair.com/chit_chat/go/thread/view/94038/31642003/peter-hitchens-numbers-just-dont-add-up?post_id=559173709#559173709if he is the best, what do the records of the others look likeTue, 14 Apr 2020 16:00:10 -0500It’s all about who SOUNDS most convincing.https://community.betfair.com/chit_chat/go/thread/view/94038/31642003/peter-hitchens-numbers-just-dont-add-up?post_id=559173695#559173695It’s all about who SOUNDS most convincing.Tue, 14 Apr 2020 15:58:29 -0500maybe we should put mystic meg in charge of modellinghttps://community.betfair.com/chit_chat/go/thread/view/94038/31642003/peter-hitchens-numbers-just-dont-add-up?post_id=559173679#559173679maybe we should put mystic meg in charge of modellingTue, 14 Apr 2020 15:56:42 -0500That's just one of the conclusions, you need to review the others as wellhttps://community.betfair.com/chit_chat/go/thread/view/94038/31642003/peter-hitchens-numbers-just-dont-add-up?post_id=559173645#559173645That's just one of the conclusions, you need to review the others as wellTue, 14 Apr 2020 15:51:42 -0500Ferguson has responded to the FMD criticism, saying: “We were doing modelling in real time as the other groups were in 2001 — certainly the models weren’t 100% right, certainly with limited data and limited time to do the work. But I think thehttps://community.betfair.com/chit_chat/go/thread/view/94038/31642003/peter-hitchens-numbers-just-dont-add-up?post_id=559173639#559173639Ferguson has responded to the FMD criticism, saying: “We were doing modelling in real time as the other groups were in 2001 — certainly the models weren’t 100% right, certainly with limited data and limited time to do the work. But I think theTue, 14 Apr 2020 15:50:40 -0500