New Posts For Thread: How contagious is the virus?https://community.betfair.com/chit_chat/go/thread/view/94038/31641663/how-contagious-is-the-virusMy son-law-went to hospital and tested positive for the virus that causes Covid-19.My daughter who spent 14 days in lockdown in a tiny flat with him before he went to hospital just tested negative.Either this thing is not that contagious or the testiHere are the case numbers by block, total number for pre March and then a daily average for the subsequent blocks. Country Feb Mar 1 Mar 2 Mar 3 Apr 1 Italy 1,128 902 3,687https://community.betfair.com/chit_chat/go/thread/view/94038/31641663/how-contagious-is-the-virus?post_id=559147349#559147349Here are the case numbers by block, total number for pre March and then a daily average for the subsequent blocks. Country Feb Mar 1 Mar 2 Mar 3 Apr 1 Italy 1,128 902 3,687Fri, 10 Apr 2020 05:06:44 -0500I guess another problem for a false negative could be improper sample taking, i.e not taking from the correct spot.https://community.betfair.com/chit_chat/go/thread/view/94038/31641663/how-contagious-is-the-virus?post_id=559147329#559147329I guess another problem for a false negative could be improper sample taking, i.e not taking from the correct spot.Fri, 10 Apr 2020 05:03:06 -0500I've broken up the data in to ten or 11 day blocks, pre March has insignificant numbers.Data not yet in for April 10, other than a partial report from Spain.However, you can see that both Italy and Spain have recorded less new cases in the first tenhttps://community.betfair.com/chit_chat/go/thread/view/94038/31641663/how-contagious-is-the-virus?post_id=559147323#559147323I've broken up the data in to ten or 11 day blocks, pre March has insignificant numbers.Data not yet in for April 10, other than a partial report from Spain.However, you can see that both Italy and Spain have recorded less new cases in the first tenFri, 10 Apr 2020 05:02:23 -0500As some "supposed" re-infections (i.e positive tests after having had been cleared) have shown in various countries, the virus might also re-activate in the the throat and nasal area after some time.https://community.betfair.com/chit_chat/go/thread/view/94038/31641663/how-contagious-is-the-virus?post_id=559147313#559147313As some "supposed" re-infections (i.e positive tests after having had been cleared) have shown in various countries, the virus might also re-activate in the the throat and nasal area after some time.Fri, 10 Apr 2020 05:00:36 -0500It depends on how and when she was tested. E.g. the swab PCR tests (done from samples of the throat or nose) are known to cause false negatives after about a week or so when the virus has (mostly) left those areas and wandered off to the lungs. Thishttps://community.betfair.com/chit_chat/go/thread/view/94038/31641663/how-contagious-is-the-virus?post_id=559147303#559147303It depends on how and when she was tested. E.g. the swab PCR tests (done from samples of the throat or nose) are known to cause false negatives after about a week or so when the virus has (mostly) left those areas and wandered off to the lungs. ThisFri, 10 Apr 2020 04:58:12 -0500You really need to give Mexico a shout on this. He is the forums scientific and medical expert. He will knowhttps://community.betfair.com/chit_chat/go/thread/view/94038/31641663/how-contagious-is-the-virus?post_id=559147299#559147299You really need to give Mexico a shout on this. He is the forums scientific and medical expert. He will knowFri, 10 Apr 2020 04:57:55 -0500i agree with that but the peak deaths day guides how much i worry about the death toll, if 17/4 were correct for peak deaths then we would need to be past peak infection day so that must be wrong . if we are still about two weeks behind spain and itahttps://community.betfair.com/chit_chat/go/thread/view/94038/31641663/how-contagious-is-the-virus?post_id=559147289#559147289i agree with that but the peak deaths day guides how much i worry about the death toll, if 17/4 were correct for peak deaths then we would need to be past peak infection day so that must be wrong . if we are still about two weeks behind spain and itaFri, 10 Apr 2020 04:55:52 -0500Well, this is where we need to firm up on our definitions of "peak of the virus".For me, this should focus on the leading indicators rather than the lagging indicators i.e. cases rather than deathsI suspect that this is what the medical and scientifihttps://community.betfair.com/chit_chat/go/thread/view/94038/31641663/how-contagious-is-the-virus?post_id=559147269#559147269Well, this is where we need to firm up on our definitions of "peak of the virus".For me, this should focus on the leading indicators rather than the lagging indicators i.e. cases rather than deathsI suspect that this is what the medical and scientifiFri, 10 Apr 2020 04:46:22 -0500as long as he kept 2 metres away and didnt have droplets coughed on them and then poke around his face,no reason they,d be infected, according to the scientistshttps://community.betfair.com/chit_chat/go/thread/view/94038/31641663/how-contagious-is-the-virus?post_id=559147257#559147257as long as he kept 2 metres away and didnt have droplets coughed on them and then poke around his face,no reason they,d be infected, according to the scientistsFri, 10 Apr 2020 04:42:59 -0500can you give us a sneak preview please? i thought 17/4 was estimated as peak death day, you seem to be suggesting it will be a fair bit later. tiahttps://community.betfair.com/chit_chat/go/thread/view/94038/31641663/how-contagious-is-the-virus?post_id=559147223#559147223can you give us a sneak preview please? i thought 17/4 was estimated as peak death day, you seem to be suggesting it will be a fair bit later. tiaFri, 10 Apr 2020 04:39:08 -0500