Cheltenham Festival

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04 Dec 23 13:17
Date Joined: 09 Jan 11
| Topic/replies: 28,416 | Blogger: FOYLESWAR's blog
race looks more open than it did a few months ago ,gallopin and bravemans both btn a few times since and the betting has opened up somewhat . obviously not writing off the front 2 but the gold cup is a real greuller that can leave a mark and both gdc and bravemans are too short for me.   I AM MAXIMUS  appeals at a price, obviously has a bit to find but is an irish grand national winner so stamina shouldnt be an issue and had the class to win yesterdays drinmore over a much shorter trip .   a battler and improving who could have plenty more to come and wpm said after yesterdays drinmore win "he looks a class horse now rather than a handicapper ,so we may be we will have to make different plans for him " could be they might be tempted at a crack at the gold cup ,as  said he has a bit to find to find but once they start improving who knows what their limits are.
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Report strontium December 4, 2023 2:05 PM GMT
The one that stands out for me at the prices is The Real Whacker. Poor seasonal debut, but he badly needed the first run last season as well. Three chase wins at Cheltenham, including a Festival G1. His attacking style suits the New Course. Geri Colombe, who he beat at the Festival in March, is now 4/1 for the race. I fully accept that GC looked like he would reverse form over a longer trip (indeed over a couple of strides further), but presumably TRW's jockey knows where the finish line is in the Gold Cup too.

I'm not saying TRW is a likely winner of the Gold Cup, but 33/1 is an insult when GC is 4/1.

The other that catches the eye is L'homme Presse, at around 20/1 currently. He's a bit of a forgotten horse IMO. He showed a high level of form before his injury last season, especially given that Kempton would not be his track. Of course, you never know how they will come back from injury, but with the doubts around the principals, L'hP might be some value.
Report impossible123 December 4, 2023 9:42 PM GMT
I think the horse, if his present form is genuine, is Fastorslow (6/1). He's beaten Galopin Des Champs (2x) and Bravemansgame. Another is Gerri Colombe with the distance to suit; he won last time despite encountering traffic issue.

I think Galopin Des Champs and Bravemansgame have had their days in the sun.
Report brandyontherocks December 5, 2023 8:17 PM GMT
For many years I would automatically oppose the previous seasons winner of the Gold Cup believing the race would have left a mark.
But in recent years I have changed my opinion.
I can not see a reason why it would to be honest.

Galpoin Des Champs has now fallen into that way of thinking by many after his defeat in the John Durkan.
His jumping was poor in the first half of that race but he certainly did not finish like a broken horse.
I was not put off by that run anyway.
When W.Mullins runs so many horses in a race only a few are privy to their running plans.
Appreciate It was given a very easy lead , so maybe that day was his turn to win.

Along side Galopin Des Champs...,, Gerri Colombe and FastorSlow have obvious chances of being in the shake up.
Gerri Colombe is too short in the betting for what he has done on the track so far for me. He may step forward at Christmas. He looks likely to face FastorSlow there, so that will be interesting.

For an outsider, I really liked the run from Mahler Mission on Saturday.
Reported to have lost two shoes, it was another step in the right direction for him.
Has course form and the stamina for a Gold Cup.
Has to improve plenty, but at 50/1 maybe worth a few pennies.
Report duffy December 6, 2023 4:56 PM GMT
L'homme Presse at 18/20 is the value for me, a large chunk of that price would be gone if we knew he was coming back the same horse that we saw previous, he looks a thorough stayer, did loads wrong in the KG but still ran a great race against a BMG who was at the time the real BMG,an RSA winner, worth the gamble that he's the same horse especially with the flaws among the principals.
Report The Dragon December 6, 2023 8:23 PM GMT
i have been backinggallopin ante pst for a few months now and will continue so to do.

best horse wins
Report Hibore December 6, 2023 9:31 PM GMT
Gallopin just hasn’t looked right to me, even since the day he ran at Leopardstown to be honest. I backed him in the Gold Cup but wasn’t confident for most of the race and perhaps it was only his superior stamina over BMG that got him home against a poorish field on reflection. He should be beating Appreciate It even over 2 1/2 miles in my book. Not for me at the moment till he shows his old spark.

Maybe there aren’t any proper Gold Cup horses this season. Much of a muchness ? GDC, BMG, Fastorslow…nothing spectacular there. Just good genuine National hunt horses. Has Fastorslow improved 18lbs by beating GDC twice since 2nd to Corach Ramber ?

The only 2 to me that could surpass the current bar are Gerri Colombe and L’homme Presse. Gerri’s stamina is a potent weapon and if he brushed his jumping up he could be unstoppable. He’s the most likely winner if the race was run tomorrow. Couldn’t have him around Kempton but could teach him plenty if he turned up.

L’homme is a similar type and ran a mighty race in last years KG. Definitely can see him popping along up front in the gold cup aka Native River.

The Xmas races will provide some clarity you would hope.
Report brandyontherocks December 6, 2023 9:35 PM GMT
Do you think Gerri Colombe should be a 4/1 shot on what he has achieved so far?

If so, what price do you have The Real Whacker?
Report Hibore December 6, 2023 10:01 PM GMT
I thought Gerri did remarkably well in the RSA in the circumstances. Jumped poorly throughout and never travelled for 80% of the race. TRW ran a cracking race and won fair and square on the day. The old course suited him with his bold front running. If he ran in the Gold Cup I’d have him 20/1.

If Gerri ran against him over Gold Cup course and distance in a match he would be 1/5.

4/1 isn’t great value for the Gold Cup but his profile and improvement he’s shown in his last couple of races over distances short of his best make him the form choice in my book. Elliott knows the time of day and he’s very bullish as well.
Report Hibore December 6, 2023 10:03 PM GMT
If Fury road had jumped the last at Leopardstown he would have gone mighty close to beating GDC. It’s just horse racing.
Report strontium December 6, 2023 11:58 PM GMT
Sadly Dragon, the best horse often doesn't win the Gold Cup because, frankly, it's quite an odd C&D. Best horse wins is far more true of the King George.
Report GoBallistic December 7, 2023 12:33 PM GMT
I re-watched the novice chase at the festival the other day and revised my opinion in favour of the winner. The Real Whacker was going pretty well throughout, idled a bit in front I reckon, and was arguably starting to respond when Gerri Colombe got to him near the line (although unfortunately the camera pans away which makes that more of a guess). Of course both horses are open to plenty of improvement but they probably need to improve.  Bronn didn't do much for the form on his reappearance. I still have some faith in the winner despite his poor effort in the big hcp a few weeks back (apparently finished a bit lame there).
Report Bentring December 7, 2023 5:04 PM GMT
How did TRW get a rating of 162 after RSA  when Denman got 159
Report duffy December 7, 2023 6:08 PM GMT
Gerri has a big flaw in that he lands flat footed over his fences and needs to be ridden away a lot of the time sort of restarted each time, that's a lot of ground and momentum lost through the race and when the pace quickens it's magnified.
Report duffy December 7, 2023 6:15 PM GMT
His price is painfully short but the fact that last seasons top notchers now look a little flawed and the market always loves the bright new thing it all feeds to him being over bet, bettors see that strong powerful finishing burst he has and hope that it can cure all ills along the way.
Report strontium December 7, 2023 6:36 PM GMT
Santini mk. 2.
Report Hibore December 7, 2023 8:23 PM GMT
Bit harsh on a horse who has won 9 out of 10 races and only lost by a short head in a festival race. Won on the bridle on most of these races and beat race fit Ryanair and Saville Chase winners over 2.5 miles on reappearance. Closely matched with Galopin Des Champ at this stage last year regarding ratings. Beaten Grade 1 winner I am Maximus by 10 lengths Laugh

4/1 isn’t great but not that far from what it should be. Given his profile and lack lustre runs from last years Gold Cup field. What price would you make him in 5 field race Cotswold Chase in January against GDC,BMG,Fastorslow and L’homme Presse ?

He’d be fav or very close to GDC. Definitely shorter than other 3.
Report strontium December 7, 2023 9:28 PM GMT
It's not that harsh - Santini was beaten a diminishing head in the Gold Cup, by a dual winner. But GC does remind me of him - doesn't travel all that well, and lacks tactical pace. I won't say 2 1/2 mile pace is crucial in a Gold Cup, because out and out stayers sometimes win it, but it is a big asset. I can easily see GC being left behind coming down the hill. Equally, I've no doubt he will be finishing the race better than almost anything else.

GC arguably does have the best piece of Gold Cup form this season (at Down Royal), him or Fastorslow. But 4/1 for the Gold Cup does seem to have all his potential baked into the price, and there doesn't look to be anything special about his novice form (yes, he won 4/5 races, but what did he beat?) 

What's the ground in your Cotswold Chase hypothetical? If it's soft or heavy, I think GC would be similarly priced to Fastorslow, behind GdC. Better ground would favor GdC and BMG. L'homme Presse's price is anyone's guess until after his seasonal reappearance.
Report irishone December 8, 2023 6:56 AM GMT
the ground this time of year on a flat track in ireland is no comparison to that of an undulating track in england in march
Report brandyontherocks December 14, 2023 5:29 PM GMT
Had a small e/w investment on Corach Rambler at 33/1.

Last time out he was soundly beaten in the Betfair Chase, but small fields on a tight track was never going to be his thing.

He has an excellent record at the festival, and he beat the 6/1 third favourite for this in the Ultima last season.
Report FOYLESWAR December 14, 2023 6:06 PM GMT
good luck brandy i looked long and hard at this fella and i dont mind a few cracks at big prices so i have added him to my portfolio ,as you say loves cheltenham will love the trip and progressive not got that much to find and an each way price will do for me .
Report strontium December 14, 2023 6:23 PM GMT
Pleased to hear that L'homme Presse still has a leg at each corner. Comeback expected in the Fleur de Lys Chase.
Report The Dragon December 20, 2023 3:24 PM GMT
will CR go for it ?

aintree is on the agenda?

if it goes defo worth a few quid to plave/win at the price

GDC still my bet
Report FOYLESWAR December 27, 2023 9:56 AM GMT
the savills tommorow looks a cracker , potential big field wpm gordon henry de brom run several galopin ,fastorslow gerri all possible runners . drinmore form got a bit of a boost yesterday.
Report strontium December 27, 2023 1:08 PM GMT
Conditions at Leopardstown look utterly dreadful.
Report FOYLESWAR December 28, 2023 11:00 AM GMT
yes they do and 3 nron nunners in the savills, still a cracking race tho .
Report strontium December 28, 2023 12:21 PM GMT
BMG drifting out to around 33 for the Gold Cup  seems an over-reaction given he may only have lost the King George because of interference from Shiskin.
Report impossible123 December 28, 2023 6:33 PM GMT
I think the Gold Cup is still the main target for BMG. If so, his price can only get shorter more so if Galopin Des Champs is an absentee unless all the big boys turn up then Nicholls could entertain budget airline race instead.
Report strontium December 28, 2023 7:37 PM GMT
BMG won't run in the Ryanair. Nicholls thinks he can win a Gold Cup - and why not - he was arguably unlucky not to win this KG, and he ran a beast to 6 l in March. Plus he has Stage Star for the Ryanair, and he needs to split up his ammo nowadays.
Report impossible123 December 28, 2023 8:14 PM GMT
Galopin Des Champs (GDC) was impressive today. But, Gerri was disappointing to say the least. Could it be the ground? If not, unless the French horse turns up this looks likely to be a penalty kick for GDS.
Report brandyontherocks December 28, 2023 8:30 PM GMT
Report duffy January 4, 2024 4:54 PM GMT
I don't think it's a penalty kick, until the last run GDC had big questions to answer and he's gone a long way to answering them but if you're not on already you can't back him now,, it's been commented that him having sight of his fences out front helped him greatly, this is something unlikely to be afforded him in the GC unless they decide to ride him prominantly and it still remains that he's been disappointing in two of three runs since his GC win and he's 13/8.

Nothing else ran a race and the question must now be asked at the top level, is Gerri any good? we know he was slow at his fences and has to be ridden away from them but this type of race was supposed to be right up his street a real test to make up for his shortcomings and it just goes to show for those that see his fast finishing curing all ills, it doesn't and last years RSA gets worse by the day.

Shishkin for me has to be the bet now at 10/1, I believe he'd have won the KG and think that he was just idling, I think he was full of running and as such would be a 4/1 shot along with Fastorslow without the mishap ad he'd won as easy as I though he would, yes I'm taking a degree of trust!!.

If he can take that to the GC trip and the fact that he finishes his races off strongly makes him such an exciting prospect, completely unexposed at the trip, an Arkle winner and a horse that beat Energumene at 2 miles that may be able to bring that class to the Gold Cup trip, he could be travelling through the race thinking how easy it all is.

Two notes of caution, the KG wasn't strongly run, people assume it was because they stopped in front and the stayer went past them, it's a knock against Allaho and BMG but not on Shishkin because he was still going strongly IMO but it still means that a stamina issue has to be answered but there is a fascinating possibility that he has this untapped potential of the Gold Cup trip just waiting to be unleashed, of course the other fly in the ointment is him actually starting but the 10/1 helps there.
Report impossible123 January 4, 2024 10:25 PM GMT
GDC was undercooked 1st time out this season, and the trip was inadequate; final race last season was "tough" given his exertion at Cheltenham - GDC could have been past his best.

However, I do agree about Shishkin; his present Cheltenham price is generous because of his antic at Ascot. The 2023 King George might not have been a vintage one but Shishkin was terribly unlucky not to have won. I think he ought to be shorter than Gerri (10/1) for this race too.
Report FOYLESWAR January 5, 2024 8:30 PM GMT
interesting duffy , a few take the eye at decent prices shishkin 10/1 see duffys thoughts ,corach rambler 33/s and gentlemans game 25/1 ,already had a few quid on the latter and topped up a bit at 40/1 on here earlier . gentlemans missing the savills means he should go to chelt fresher than most and very lightly raced over fences could be plenty more to come . will need to improve but could well do .
Report nocturnal January 5, 2024 9:31 PM GMT
The last 10 yr old to win this was 1998

One of the strongest stats in modern history,in all of the championship races.
Report FOYLESWAR January 5, 2024 9:43 PM GMT
corach and shish both 10yo s done me dough on maximus cashed out a small ew bet on corach before xmas,thatll pro left with gentlemansgame ew .
Report nocturnal January 5, 2024 9:59 PM GMT
7 of the 20 entries are 10 yr olds,history suggests they have a mountain to climb.

As for Shiskin,if the normal pilot returns,he carries 12-03 on my reckoning,the weakest NH jockey in living memory.
Report FOYLESWAR January 8, 2024 7:51 PM GMT
impossible i wouldnt be thinking its a penalty kick for galopin in the gold cup ,sure he looks the probable winner but i wouldnt wanna be backing him or anything at around evens this far out and anything can happen in the run up to the race and in the race itself , a few at decent ew prices offer better value imo ,bravemansgame hasnt got that much to find with the fav and is available at 20/1 plus a few others who could improve plenty .
Report The Dragon January 17, 2024 9:57 PM GMT
shishkin -very talented but unreiable wont beat gdc

cr - prob wont go but if it does worth an interest

the rest -forget

GDC wins
Report strontium January 17, 2024 10:13 PM GMT
Thanks for that Dragon, it will give me an extra 10 minutes on March 15th.
Report The Dragon January 18, 2024 1:55 PM GMT
my pleasure stronWink
Report impossible123 January 18, 2024 4:27 PM GMT
Shishkin and GDC together jumping the last. Who'll you go for? My money will be on Shishkin as he's always finished strong.
Report duffy January 18, 2024 5:28 PM GMT
If you gave a GDC supporter the option to take the scenario of the two of them jumping the last together than I don't think they'd be happy to take that, Shishkin fans on the other hand would because if he is still there at that point he would have already answered a lot of questions that exist right now....and yes I'd be on Shishkin at that point and fancy him anywayHappy
Report impossible123 January 19, 2024 11:33 AM GMT
'duffy', that's what I'll be hoping for jumping the last.
Report The Dragon January 19, 2024 10:42 PM GMT
shiskin is a very dodgy horse who has class  no pennies on him for me for sure
Report impossible123 January 20, 2024 12:22 PM GMT
Why is Shishkin dodgy? He was only "dodgy" in that Champion Chase when he was never an inch, and was pulled up 2 fences later. Hendo blamed the atrocious ground immediately, but supporters something was amiss with him. Later he was diagnosed with a back issue, I believe.
Report strontium January 20, 2024 1:43 PM GMT
He was dodgy when he refused to race at Ascot, and when he had to be scrubbed along for the whole of the Ryanair. He also had to be rousted along to get going in the King George, though he was fine once he got going.
Report brandyontherocks January 20, 2024 5:49 PM GMT
Shishkin has plenty of ability.
We all saw that when he was completely run off his feet be Energumene at Ascot.

But it would be unwise to think he does not have his "quirks".

As mentioned by Stront, above
Report The Dragon January 20, 2024 9:51 PM GMT
if you back shiskin towin the gold cup u are a very brave person

or a fool 

take yur pick on that oneCrazy
Report impossible123 February 23, 2024 12:49 PM GMT
I'm championing Shishkin for this. I'm going against sanity and nailing my colour to the mast. I did the name with Auguste Rodin for The Derby and Tiger Roll (2nd GN) against the "informed" professionals sponsored by bookies. I hope I'd get a hattrick over these sycophants.
Report Bentring February 23, 2024 1:54 PM GMT
Was santini not after Tigef Roll put up all the losesr and work out how many permutations it would take to get that hatrick
Report FOYLESWAR April 14, 2024 9:18 AM BST
right horse wrong big race shappens
Report strontium May 1, 2024 10:13 AM BST
Amazing, even for him, that JP has five runners at 16/1 or less for the next Gold Cup. Inothewayurthinkn would be the pick for me at the moment (at least he'll stay the trip, which I'm not certain can be said for Fact to File).
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