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unclepuncle
19 Mar 22 03:47
Joined:
Date Joined: 16 Feb 03
| Topic/replies: 6,484 | Blogger: unclepuncle's blog
Well another year over and if you, unlike me, like backing the shorties you should have had a very decent meeting.
I'm sure there were plenty of decent antepost and week of meeting accas up, though equally many of those will have been busted by Shiskins flop and the last fence fall of Galopin Des Champs (though plenty will have been on Bob Olinger as well).

Time to dust myself down and look ahead to next year.

Novice Hurdlers
As ever the obvious place to start is the Bumper and despite the appalling conditions (surely if it had been any other meeting there card would have been cancelled) the actual race panned out much as the market had been predicting for months with Facile Vega winning impressively from American Mike with a couple more once raced Mullins horses in behind.
As ever it is impossible to know what race Mullins will choose (Sir Gerhard who won it last year eventually went for the Ballymore at the 11th hour) but at this stage I have to assume the Supreme will be the target for Facile Vega and the 4/1 looks worth throwing into some long range multiples.
American Mike was a 3m point winner so maybe they will aim at the Ballymore, the 10/1 is sensible enough. The third  James Gate is another who will presumably be aimed there and 20/1 is again fair enough.

Novice Chasers

The Arkle market is very confusing with the likes of Constitution Hill, Sir Gerhard and Vauban all being touted as potential Champion Hurdle horses.
If he goes chasing then Sir Gerhard will be the one to beat, but as ever with Mullins which race? Appreciate It was very disappointing on his comeback, even if it was in a Champion Hurdle, and maybe Jonbon at 14/1 is the most logical for the Arkle at this stage.
Already a point winner and a lovely big rangy horse (as he should be given his auction price). Seems to show plenty of pace and Nicky Henderson usually aims his good horses here so so I'd hope the Arkle would be the aim rather than the Browns Advisory but always a gamble.

I also thought Fil Dor who was second in the Triumph might make a chaser, Wells Chief was second in a Triumph before becoming a top 2m chaser, and State Man is another contender but can't seem to find any prices on them.

As ever working out what horses will run in the Browns Advisory and which the Turners is anyones guess so from an Antepost point of view it is very risky.

Champion Hurdle

An awesome performance by Constitution Hill and it looks like the owner is keen to stay over hurdles. Would certainly favour him over the reigning champion Honeysuckle, they may even meet at Punchestown, but at around 2/1 I can easily resist.
Vauban and Sir Gerhard also possible players but not enough juice in their prices at this stage.
If he was mine I would give up on chasing with Bob Olinger but whether he would be good enough here is another matter.

Stayers Hurdle
A terrific performance by Flooring Porter to regain his crown, and multiple winners are a regular feature of this race. Danny Mullins rode his rivals to sleep from the front and surely next year somebody will put in a spoiler or two.
Always one to go to the well too many times I have to give my cliff horse Thyme Hill another chance at 20/1.Laugh

Champion Chase
I stated in last years thread that I felt Shiskin was vulnerable and so it proved, even if the ground, or something more heinous, was to blameConfused. I'll finally give up on Chacun Por Soi who will be 11 next year, but Enurgemene is clearly a beast, though soft ground was a big help to him. He's clearly the most likely winner and 3/1 is ok.
Edwardstone is very professional but just lacks that 'je ne said quo' and it was a weak Arkle he won.
Ferny Hollow is classy but too injury prone for antepost purposes and Galopin Des Champs is the potential fly in the ointment. Maybe he'll go Gold Cup, otherwise Mullins will have to choose between taking on Energumene here or Allaho in the Ryanair. Personally think the Ryanair is the right race for him, more of which below.

Ryanair
A comfortable repeat win for Allaho but not nearly as impressive as last year. Galopin Des Champ was going to hose up in the Turners and would be the likely winner if running here - as big as 6/1 available.
Shiskin maybe could come here but I'd want to see him prove he is still 100% after that last performance, and I expect they will still aim at the Champion. L'Homme Presse would be a great addition but the lure of the Gold Cup may be to much.

Gaillard Du Mesnil didn't get much attention after his 3rd in the Turners, but he was not beaten far by L'homme Presse (who was showered with praise), despite going wide all the way, being hampered by the fall of Farouk D'Alene at the second last and then a mistake at the last. He was actually closing at the line. Farouk D'Alene also went well until his fall and the intermediate trip looks ideal for him. No prices on these two but I may dabble at big prices if they are added nearer the start of next jumps season.

Gold Cup
A deadly performance by A Plus Tard and Rachel. Now they know how to ride him he looks a very worthy favourite and 5/1 seems very fair. The market is made by Galopin Des Champ but I can't have him as a Gold Cup horse at this stage, though don't put anything beyond Willie Mulllins. Also Mullins should have Monkfish back, though I've never been a massive fan. Having said that 16/1 is fair if you know he has recovered from the injury.
Protektorat ran well but can't see him reversing the form and Dan Skelton is not someone I rate at all so that leaves L'Homme Presse do carry the English flag into battle. He's a super horse and very uncomplicated but whether the extra 2f on a more galloping track  is in his favour is a question. 10/1 doesn't appeal to me. As mentioned above Gaillard Du Mesnil ran well behind him and has been forgotten about.
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Report brandyontherocks March 19, 2022 9:23 AM GMT
Nice write up Uncle.

Agree with a lot of that.

As long as he returns sound, I think Shishkin could be a King George horse next season.

Constitution Hill looks better than anything Honeysuckle has faced before so fingers crossed they both turn up fit and well next year.

Sir Gerhard and Appreciate It will be 8 and 9 respectively next season so not the best age to go novice chasing having wasted their 6 year old season running in bumpers.

Vauban looked an above average winner of the Triumph and value for more than his winning distance. The owners bumper horse, Mercury, looks a nice prospect for novice hurdles next season.

Gallopin looked very good and was given a TimeForm figure of 175. Jumps too extravagant to be a Gold Cup horse at the moment.
Report cobra sam March 19, 2022 10:19 AM GMT
great write up uncle...im also a big fan of gallard du mensil would guess ryannair at this stage
Report PeteTheBloke March 19, 2022 11:50 AM GMT
Thanks Uncle. Keep us updated, this is good stuff.
Report impossible123 March 19, 2022 1:56 PM GMT
Constitution Hill: 5/1 Arkle; 5/2 Champion Hurdle.
Report cobra sam March 19, 2022 4:03 PM GMT
another worth a bit of interest would be buzz 
in the stayers was looking good and got injured in his box around xmas,,,bit of 20/1 would be nice ..,,,,
Report impossible123 March 19, 2022 4:41 PM GMT
Buzz: Hendo the handicap. He's too bookie friendly. I'll need to know extent of injury and potential not affected prior.
Report cobra sam March 19, 2022 4:46 PM GMT
totally agree,,,,knew chantry house was a ponce,,,and it comes with risk,,,hence 20/1 needed...if gets there in 1 piece be  a result
Report brandyontherocks March 19, 2022 4:49 PM GMT
I was looking for a price for Appreciate It for the stayers.
Report unclepuncle March 20, 2022 7:08 AM GMT
Surely Appreciate It will going chasing next season, injury permitting - he's a lovely stamp of a horse.
Report unclepuncle March 20, 2022 7:43 AM GMT
In terms of the handicaps and horses that might win big races in the near future a couple that caught my eye are:

Celebre D'Allen - was only 4/1 for the Plate over 2m5f having won smoothly on his three previous starts. Not sure if it was the ground or the undulating track but he was struggling for most of the race but stayed on really well and still looks well handicapped. I'll be looking out for him in the 3 miler on Grand National day.

Il Ridoto - ultimately beaten 31 lengths in the Grand Annual on that rain sodden Wednesday but made up a lot of ground from 4 out to 2 before tiring in the straight. He's always looked a slightly soft finisher so the attritional conditions wouldn't have been up his street and back on a flat track and better ground he would be of interest. I'd imaging the 2 miler handicap (Red Rum Chase?) on the first day at Aintree will be the aim, or maybe a similar race at the Scottish National meeting where Nicholls likes to send a big team.
Report duffy March 20, 2022 2:11 PM GMT
A long range flyer at this stage, and I put it in an ante post bet early season for this year but horse wasn't targeted is Zanahiyr for the stayers, he desperately wants to go up in trip, is banging his head against the best 2 milers and it's only going to get harder, it might be worth experimenting to see if he will stay.

At this stage 5/1 about Shishkin is worth betting, it's no point waiting to see and all that, I'd sooner take the chance he's fine at this stage and get that huge price, a week ago he was a monster, you can't just write off what we have seen about him after one, all be it major, disappointment.
Report impossible123 March 20, 2022 6:15 PM GMT
I'd not have Shishkin. Might Bite and Altior kaput after an exhaustive race unless Shishkin was marginalised in his latest race. He must proved he's ok prior.
Report brandyontherocks March 20, 2022 7:59 PM GMT
Only reason I was looking at Appreciate It for the stayers is because he will be 9 next season and surely won't go novice chasing now??

If Shishkin is OK I think he wants/needs further than 2 miles now.
But his performance on Wednesday would really worry me. Never ran a yard and you can't put that down to the ground,  surely
Report duffy March 20, 2022 10:31 PM GMT
Aintree Hurdle might be interesting for Zanahiyr as a stepping stone to next year up in trip, they were successful with Abacadabras in the race last year.
Report duffy March 20, 2022 10:49 PM GMT
I must say I can't understand the Shishkin needs further narrative, where does it come from, we've seen no evidence of it, what happened at Cheltenham has no bearing at all on this theory, he won at 2 miles at Ascot despite a couple of mistakes and Cheltenham would suit him better, what happened last week was an abhoration but it does not bode the question about distance being an issue.

If he was beat fair and square with evidence put before us as to what should happen going forward then fair enough, 5/1 about him next year is what I would expect to see about him if he ran his race and was beaten fair and square, as it is it appears a big price and as  basically a price against his well being.

Energumene is much the same horse as we knew he was before, he had no pressure and simply had to jump round to collect, I do not see the division being much deeper than it was this year with perhaps Ferny Hollow coming into it, although on a line through River d'etel perhaps he is going to have to go up a couple of levels to compete at the top.

I'm prepared to trust that Shishkin that we all thought was a monster a week a go, still is and I've started backing him at 5's and am prepared to lose if he's not...price is just worth it.
Report penzance March 20, 2022 10:59 PM GMT
Shiskin's put 1 bad performance in 13 outings,if
you don't count the hurdle fall.
People are writing him off.
Report cobra sam March 21, 2022 5:49 AM GMT
done pretty good with my long range punts this time last year,,,so going in again...first lucky 15 and singles...Queen mum  Energumene...Champ hurdle Vauban....Stayers Buzz....Gold cup Monkfish,,,also any thoughts be appreciated anyone where Gaelic Warrior will be aimed next year
Report impossible123 March 21, 2022 7:54 AM GMT
Shishkin at 5/1 is an excellent price to trade from as his price will shrink before his next "proper" race unless he defects. I understand his pilot was still unsure whether it was merely the ground responsible for his flop at Cheltenham.

I do not think people are writing off Shishkin after one bad performance. I think it was a combination of the way he ran, and solely the "bad" ground responsible as stated categorically by Hendo.

Would I back him if odds-against eg 7/4 or more for the Celebration Chase against our British lot? Very possibly - out of loyalty and value, but no Champion Chase even at 5/1 presently for me.
Report Deptford March 21, 2022 8:56 AM GMT
Not one of the media gravy slurpers have asked Nicky what was wrong with the going when the horse has won on heavy, that horse never travelled at any stage
Report brandyontherocks March 21, 2022 9:02 AM GMT
I am definitely not writing him off. He hasn't suddenly become a bad horse I totally agree.
But for me you can't put that performance down to the ground. He was beat after 2 fences and has form on soft going.
At Ascot he ran like a horse who needed further personally. Energumene had him out of his comfort zone the whole way. Maybe that race took a lot more out of him than they thought.
His next race will tell us more for sure.
I hope he comes back as good as ever because we all want competition which so many of the grade 1 races last week lacked.
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! March 21, 2022 1:27 PM GMT
Tickets on sale
NOW
Sorry not a sale
£52 tatts
Laugh
Report irishone March 21, 2022 4:37 PM GMT
Cheers uncle
Good luck
Report impossible123 March 21, 2022 6:39 PM GMT
I think if Shishkin bombs in the Celebration Chase at Sandown next month retirement could be imminent for him esp with Constitution Hill (CH) coming through the rank. But, I do hope Michael Buckley says no to his star going chasing next season.
Report strontium March 21, 2022 7:43 PM GMT
You think 8-year-old Shiskin, who was the highest rated chaser in training this time last week, is about to be retired?
Report PeteTheBloke March 21, 2022 8:10 PM GMT
BF have put 13 races up for 2023. It's like the old days.

Maybe they'll abolish PC next.
Report strontium March 21, 2022 8:16 PM GMT
Great! All the Grade 1s apart from the bumper. Now we dan get on with the business of guessing which races which Mullins horses will run in Plain
Report PeteTheBloke March 21, 2022 8:21 PM GMT
LOL - that's what it's all about.


Shall I ask them to put the same 13 races up NRNB? Just for a laff. I quite like the idea, but
their computer would have a meltdown trying to work out how to do partial settlements.
Report irishone March 22, 2022 9:35 AM GMT
An interesting point strontium ,i wonder who it was in the mullins team that suggested dysart would make the pace and kilcruit would come late and pick everything up ?

I also wonder if Willie heard about the improvement in CH and moved SG to avoid !
Report strontium March 22, 2022 10:11 AM GMT
I see Timform have rated CH 177p, which is the seventh highest rating they have ever given a hurdler, and the highest ever for a novice. (For context, their highest rated hurdler is Night Nurse on 182.)
Report brandyontherocks March 22, 2022 12:05 PM GMT
I was thinking the same regarding the Mullins trams riding plans for the Supreme.

When Dysart broke the tape causing the false start the horse looked wired. He was really buzzed up.
I don't think  they could have ridden him any different to be honest. And they certainly wouldn't have wanted to run Kilcruit up against him to make him go any faster.
It almost looked like the Henderson team sacrificed Jonbon and to not let Dysart have an easy time of it up front. I have marked Jonbon up on his performance for that reason.
Report strontium April 26, 2022 7:03 PM BST
The Brown Advisory (RSA) form is looking awfully good.
Report irishone April 29, 2022 5:23 AM BST
The RSA bottoms out too many
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