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Roksana

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Replies: 70
By:
differentdrum
When: 12 Mar 21 20:56
I am a pessimist where my betting is concerned but if it's good to soft on the opening I think it is odds on she runs in the Mare's.
By:
differentdrum
When: 12 Mar 21 20:56
^ day
By:
sageform
When: 13 Mar 21 12:40
Announced as a definite for the mares today. I am surprised she is not even money now.
By:
layingisthewayforward
When: 13 Mar 21 13:49
You're getting 3/1 about an even money shot then sageform, I'd get stuck in if i were you.
By:
differentdrum
When: 13 Mar 21 17:00
Amazing how the market moved as if she wasn't going to run even though nobody had said anything to suggest it.

Now they have had to boot out the ones they shortened yesterday and cut Roksana. 3/1 still looks big against a favourite with much to prove. She has only beaten Minella Melody and I don't think that one would get close to placing in this.
By:
impossible123
When: 13 Mar 21 17:36
I think Roksana ought to be fav as her form is more superior than Concertista (who's younger with possibly more potential). But, odds-on for the latter is a bit silly on given form, I think.
By:
sageform
When: 14 Mar 21 17:26
I did that within 30 seconds of hearing Roksana was running. Just had some more at 4.1. Masses of fancied horses are non runners on Tuesday. I had written off Eldorado Allen but he is one of only 6 Arkle runners along with Allmankind. I know I have Shishkin to beat but if anything happens to him, I fancy a 1-2.
By:
Cash Is King
When: 14 Mar 21 22:44
Interesting to hear from Dan Skelton that the decision to go for the Mares hurdle was made 2 weeks ago on the understanding that all the expected runners would turn up to the Mares hurdle and the Stayers hurdle.

Thyme Hill injury caused the Skelton team to pause and re-think but ultimately leave the decision unchanged. They obviously feel very confident that they've got the measure of Concertista.
By:
sageform
When: 15 Mar 21 09:20
Concertista has not been tested against male horses at the highest level. In an early novice against geldings she was third of five! That does not mean she is any the worse for that but the average ability of mares and geldings are a long way apart. The mares novice is a fairly new race and it is hard to rate last years running. A lot of listed mares winners are only rated between 110 and 120. Roksana is among the top 5 3 mile hurdlers and has run really well against Paisley Park. My only doubt is the trip. She was outpaced by Honeysuckle last year but that is hardly a disgrace!
By:
HaylingBilly
When: 15 Mar 21 10:34
I need educating. Can anyone explain why Concertista ran in the Mares Novice Hurdle in both 2019 (2nd) and 2020 (1st) ? All help much appreciated.
By:
Johnny The Guesser
When: 15 Mar 21 12:12
Because she was still a novice in 2020. That was her first victory.
By:
HaylingBilly
When: 15 Mar 21 12:24
Thanks Johnny. Does that mean a horse could forever be a novice if it never wins a race ?
By:
differentdrum
When: 15 Mar 21 12:25
Roksana is clearly better this year than last. Can't emphasise enough the potential lack of pace is the issue. Who is going to make it a test of stamina?
By:
Ibrahima Sonko
When: 15 Mar 21 12:41
Big fan of Roksana but i cant get it out of my head on how she could not live with them in this race last year, she has improved but mainly over further. One could argue that she was beat by honeysuckle and then she was beaten by summerville boy. Reckon she would be placed in the stayers....
By:
differentdrum
When: 15 Mar 21 15:03
If I remember correctly at Wetherby she came there tanking and had the race won three out. She didn't win through stamina. At Ascot she was outstayed by the front two. I am not sure why they need to drop her out at the shorter trip.
By:
sageform
When: 15 Mar 21 20:39
Hayling, to answer your question, a horse is still a maiden and eligible for a maiden or novice race until it wins even if it has run 100 times. Similarly a Gold Cup winner can run in a novice hurdle if it has never won one.
By:
HaylingBilly
When: 15 Mar 21 22:10
sageform - thanks for taking the time to educate me. Much appreciated. I genuinely thought it was about experience and time. I thought novices were first/second year only. No wonder I've been feeding the bookies for years !!!!
By:
Derhandy
When: 16 Mar 21 08:45
For me, she has always struggled to finish off her races.
Remember her being clawed back by Santini (I think it was) at Aintree a few years ago and subsequently noticed the same thing again.
Maybe the drop back to 2m4f mitigates that and the Skelton's are flying at the moment too.
By:
differentdrum
When: 16 Mar 21 16:50
Concertista was vulnerable but the ground and lack of pace has dented Roksana's chances.
By:
Deptford
When: 16 Mar 21 16:55
Tail swish, not a battler.
By:
sageform
When: 16 Mar 21 17:33
Harry Skelton has been too aggressive on all of his rides today. Getting carried away by the occasion. No need to fire Cabot Cliffs in that last race.
By:
differentdrum
When: 16 Mar 21 18:38
I don't think he did anything wrong on Roksana. He rode her a lot closer to the pace and short of making the running what else could he have done? Circumstances conspired against him.

As for Cabot Cliffs he rode the horse in keeping with his previous runs. It was just a much more competitive race.
By:
Autocue
When: 16 Mar 21 19:25
He was hopeless on Allmankind. The horse was outclassed by the winner but could have hit second with less testosterone from the jockey. Maybe Bridget rations him during the Festival?
By:
differentdrum
When: 16 Mar 21 20:10
I don't want to sound like a jockey apologist but again what else could he have done? He was constantly harried by Captain Guinness who was up and down like a yo-yo. Given what happened last year it's pretty clear Allmankind doesn't relish the Cheltenham hill. If there was a bad ride in the race I think it was Blackmore on the third. Had she decided to sit just off the leader she might well have had enough petrol to finish second.
By:
Autocue
When: 16 Mar 21 20:19
Watch him riding a finish before the home turn. Did he really think he could catch Shishkin?
By:
sageform
When: 16 Mar 21 20:26
I can see that looking at each ride can give him excuses but, together with Alnadam, that made 4 aggressive rides and none of them got home. Perhaps that is as good as they are but I think that if you wind horses up in the first half mile you are in trouble. And I write as a big fan of the Skeltons as a rule.
By:
Autocue
When: 17 Mar 21 16:26
Another poor ride from Skelton. Got in a bad position and had to switch, costing him the race.
By:
Deptford
When: 17 Mar 21 16:35
Yep ^
By:
Ibrahima Sonko
When: 18 Mar 21 14:30
Skelton is riding liking a mug, too aggressive.
By:
duffy
When: 18 Mar 21 14:34
Everyone was busy getting stuck into Cobden after the CC yesterday but I thought that Skelton had his own nightmare and should have won.
By:
Autocue
When: 18 Mar 21 20:26
I thought the same. If you’re going to ride a horse quietly for speed you need to put it into a position where it can have one good run at the end. He failed. It’ll be one for the Aintree notebook though as there’s a nice long straight. It’ll win on the staff.
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