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Cheltenham Festival

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differentdrum
08 Feb 21 15:36
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Date Joined: 05 Oct 11
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In the absence of Honeysuckle I would have expected her to have shortened up considerably for the Mare's Hurdle. She hasn't which makes me think Skelton is going to be stupid enough to run in the Stayers.

I think she has improved this year and consequently has every chance of winning a Mare's Hurdle. She should be around a 4/1 chance, if not shorter.

On the other hand she has already been beaten fair and square by two of her rivals if she goes the Stayer's route. No reason whatsoever to overturn that form, and more than likely she won't even place.

So it's a very good chance of winning (rather than fluking a Grade 1) or more than likely finishing fourth or fifth in a Grade 1. It should be a no brainer.

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Replies: 70
By:
differentdrum
When: 16 Feb 21 11:11
Skelton now throwing out questions about the ground and target. Shouldn't the level of opposition be the overriding factor? Good to Soft or Soft she shouldn't be going near the Stayers. It sounds to me that he has already decided that he would like to finish fifth in the Stayers and is clutching at straws to justify the ridiculous thinking.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 16 Feb 21 11:20
I thought he mentioned skipping Cheltenham and going to aintree Skelton?
By:
harry callaghan
When: 16 Feb 21 11:28
Skelton’s assistant Tom Messenger said: “It was always the plan to give her three races – at Wetherby, the Long Walk and this race – before letting her down ahead of a possible trip to Cheltenham. It’s now up in the air whether she runs in the mares’ race there, the Stayers’ Hurdle or waits for Aintree.
By:
differentdrum
When: 16 Feb 21 22:52
With Benie Des Deux out which wasn't too much of a surprise, she now has one horse to beat in the Mare's as opposed to half a dozen plus in the Stayer's. There isn't a decision to make but Skelton will still manage to make the wrong one.
By:
irishone
When: 17 Feb 21 06:54
Differentdum why don't you go to a race meeting as soon as you get the chance and ask skelton to employ you ?. Its obvious you have a vast knowledge and experience of training racehorses, why you waste your time on here is beyond me ? I reckon he would immediately see your talent and jump at the chance.
By:
differentdrum
When: 17 Feb 21 10:15
Oh dear frightened I might get something else right so you dip headlong into your bowl of sarcasm. Very poor but not unexpected.

Training racehorses and race planning are two separate things. Most people could understand that but obviously you are not most people.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 17 Feb 21 12:30
dan skelton on roksana ....if the ground is  soft or worse on the first day then roksana could go for the mares ,if it is good /good to soft then she could wait for the stayers .
By:
unclepuncle
When: 17 Feb 21 22:14
Markets on here definitely suggesting the Mares rather than the Stayers.
Might find the Mares trip a shade on the short side but would still have a favourites chance and it's hard to see her beating Paisley Park and/or Thyme Hill over 3m.
By:
Cash Is King
When: 17 Feb 21 22:52
I very much agree with differentdrum. Connections should go for the Festival Grade 1 they have the best chance of winning with this mare. There is no question that Roksana is better placed to win Tuesday's mares hurdle than she is Thursday's stayers hurdle notwithstanding the weight allowance she'll receive in the latter contest.

If Dan Skelton is in any doubt he should just ask himself the question "what would Willie Mullins do if he was in my shoes"?
By:
Bentring
When: 18 Feb 21 02:17
Dan jesus your feet are massive?
By:
irishone
When: 18 Feb 21 07:23
Then he would fall over.... wouldn't he ?
By:
layingisthewayforward
When: 18 Feb 21 20:06
Looking at the odds on here she's going for the mares.
By:
differentdrum
When: 01 Mar 21 20:43
It seems from tonight's 'In The Know' that Skelton has finally seen the light - 100% Mares unless the ground is Good and Claisse should make sure that isn't the case.

He is correct in suggesting she is the form horse. Concertista was impressive in beating not very much over a shorter trip last year and her form stepped up in trip doesn't match that of Roksana.
By:
Bentring
When: 01 Mar 21 22:00
Did she not race 2m4 at leopardstown and won the race on new course last festival,not saying I favour any but it doesn't look cut and dried
By:
differentdrum
When: 02 Mar 21 09:44
The whole idea of the thread was that Roksana had a much better chance of winning another Mare's Hurdle than a Stayers. It was logical to target the much easier race.

She is now best priced 7/2 so although I am not saying she is a certainty I would much rather be on her at that price than Concertista at 11/10. As it stands I don't think her form is as good as Roksana and I am not convinced that she isn't better at a shorter trip. She hasn't been properly tested up in trip.

The biggest concern I have for Roksana is that they go a dawdle. That makes life difficult in that she has always been held up.
By:
jedi sophie
When: 02 Mar 21 14:24
All over Roksana here....

Really am.

Has been an eway bet to nothing and still plenty value there to me.
By:
differentdrum
When: 02 Mar 21 17:12
Had another look at the entries and there is only Minella Melody, Indefatigable, and Perfect Myth likely to go forward. Hopefully, between them they can do a job because Mullins will be looking for as slow a pace as possible.
By:
The Dragon
When: 02 Mar 21 20:06
i have had a dip on the 7/2
By:
JJmbe
When: 03 Mar 21 12:19

Feb 17, 2021 -- 6:30AM, FOYLESWAR wrote:


dan skelton on roksana ....if the ground is

By:
JJmbe
When: 03 Mar 21 12:20
Remember the quote, strange market considering the drying ground.
By:
duffy
When: 03 Mar 21 17:47
differentdrum 01 Mar 21 21:43 
It seems from tonight's 'In The Know' that Skelton has finally seen the light


Notice how Skelton and Kealy ventured their thoughts on the Elliott pic, Clare had obviously told them to stay clear of him as he wasn't even asked for his thoughtsCry
By:
differentdrum
When: 04 Mar 21 13:52
Yes, but what could he have added? At least Betfair took swift action.

I have been disappointed by the industry reaction. Trotting out endless pictures showing horses being well looked after just won't cut it. The reaction should have been an unequivocal condemnation (no ifs or buts), and a total commitment to root out and expose this kind of thing. Nobody in their right mind could believe these are the only two cases out there. Instead we have the Racing Post running quotes which would almost infer that we should be feeling sorry for him.
By:
JJmbe
When: 12 Mar 21 11:30
Might be tempted by stayers now with TH out.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 12 Mar 21 11:41
Just matched at 12 on here for mares
By:
cobra sam
When: 12 Mar 21 11:46
yep carnage today
By:
differentdrum
When: 12 Mar 21 12:01
I hope there is no wavering, but who knows? She had a stronger chance in the Mare's than the Stayers before Thyme Hill came out, and she still does. Both Roksana and Concertista are 153, but I think Roksana's rating is by far the more solid of the two. Concertista has been beating up Grade 3 horses.
By:
JJmbe
When: 12 Mar 21 12:07
Ive backed DDC for the mares at 16's, from a personal greedy point of view, think they should go stayers route CoolCool.
By:
Andymca
When: 12 Mar 21 13:35
Dan Skelton has confirmed Roksana off the back of the news Thyme Hill will miss out due to injury, but is still favouring an outing in Tuesday’s Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle – a race she won in 2019.

Skelton said: “I wasn’t going to confirm her for the Stayers’, but when I saw the news (about Thyme Hill) I did, because it just gives us a little bit more time to consider and look at forecasts etc.

“I don’t think Thyme Hill coming out is going to make any difference, but at the same time, I have confirmed her to give ourselves the option.

“We are still leaning towards the Mares’ Hurdle as things stand.”
By:
differentdrum
When: 12 Mar 21 14:02
Sensible thinking from Skelton. The people jumping up and down are those who are on for the Stayers who keep saying she has improved for three miles when in fact there is nothing to suggest she hasn't just improved full stop. As I said earlier the worry in the Mare's is the lack of pace, not the opposition.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 12 Mar 21 14:09
I think the biggest thing with roksana is whether she actually likes Cheltenham, seems a far better mare on a flat track to me

even though her odds for the mares race seems fair on all known form, I Would of waited for aintree
By:
differentdrum
When: 12 Mar 21 14:29
Thank goodness you don't own her.

She has only run three times at Cheltenham, and the only disappointing effort was last year and she looks in better form this year. At Aintree she is 0/3.

Even if she was better on a flat track will she need to be at her absolute best to beat this opposition?

The market is crazy. It has reacted almost as if she isn't running.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 12 Mar 21 14:43
You will get the answers Tuesday but for me even though beaten she has performed much better on a flat track and her defeats at aintree were top class efforts...she has a great chance Tuesday no doubt about it and when you say, will she have to be at her best? yes she will imo their are some decent opponents in opposition here...I can see the argument about her form being better ratings wise if she produces it at Cheltenham
By:
differentdrum
When: 12 Mar 21 14:48
Until she lines up I won't be counting any chickens. Far too many non runners already.
By:
Fashion Fever
When: 12 Mar 21 15:28
dan never keen on stayers from the interviews I seen
, amazed she switches
By:
differentdrum
When: 12 Mar 21 16:38
He is on the ARC preview tonight so assuming it is live people can gauge for themselves.
By:
GAZO
When: 12 Mar 21 17:45
i thought the better the going the more chance going for the stayers
By:
differentdrum
When: 12 Mar 21 18:23
I would be surprised if it is much better than good to soft on the first day. Possibility it will dry up later in week, but it doesn't look a scorcher.
By:
differentdrum
When: 12 Mar 21 20:08
Fitzy and Ruby very strong on Roksana for the Mare's on the Irish Examiner preview.
By:
Jb23
When: 12 Mar 21 20:48
Everything I can cross, is crossed for the mares. Tough week on the AP front automatically makes you expect the worst
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