Cheltenham Festival

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02 Jan 20 09:38
Date Joined: 05 Oct 11
| Topic/replies: 12,569 | Blogger: differentdrum's blog
It clearly makes no sense as using that train of thought the Ballymore would be the third option. If you think he can win the Champion Hurdle then he surely dots up in a Supreme. That should be the end of the thought process.

Gordon Elliott seems to have a huge struggle with logical thinking. He has never explained why there is any need to step him up in trip when he is already the best of the novices at two miles. He might be better at two and a half miles but at the moment he doesn't need to be. There is no obvious opposition in either division. It can't be about picking an easier race. That's what his opponents should be thinking about.
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Report Can't Catch Me January 2, 2020 12:40 PM GMT
Is this another differentdrum know better than Gordon Elliot thread?!

I dont think GE is considering the CH with the horse for a second. He has the two best novices in Ireland in Abacadabras and EA and you think he should run them against each other in the Supreme? It makes perfect sense to step EA up at the weekend to see how he fares and see if they are proved right that he will look even better.

If he doesnt stay, then they can bring him back to 2m. If he does, they can have the fav for both the Supreme and the Ballymore and win both.

If they see the horse as a future GC runner in time, it makes perfect sense to step him out in trip.
Report FOYLESWAR January 2, 2020 7:56 PM GMT
i wouldnt and havent written off andy dufresne it may have looked a dissapointing run last time as he was expected to hose up going  by the betting but he may have just been beaten by a very good un with more exp over a trip . a drop back to 2m may well be an option 30s plus on here .
Report gutfeeling January 3, 2020 7:05 PM GMT
Foyles the SNH has been the plan for a long time now for AD, I must admit I haven't heard anything since his loss but if he is to run anywhere in March that was the favoured race.
Report FOYLESWAR January 3, 2020 7:08 PM GMT
thanks gutty !
Report Mister Westsound February 23, 2020 1:57 PM GMT
Definite weakness in the Ballymore price today. Red all over Oddschecker and no obvious support in other markets. Any whispers?
Report duffy February 23, 2020 5:26 PM GMT
He appears weak but you've got to factor in that in recent weeks the Ballymore looks to be getting a potentially stronger and deeper race, if all the horses that IMO run in the race that suits them best then the Ballymore would be much stronger than the Supreme in terms of depth of quality.
Report impossible123 February 23, 2020 7:23 PM GMT
I think the main reason the price of Envoi Allen has not contracted is likely due to the present state of the ground ie soft, and a possible chance he'd be rerouted to The Supreme. If so, the ground The Supreme could become more competitive race than even now with Envoi Allen in it.
Report irishone February 23, 2020 11:00 PM GMT
It seenms to have become a tactical battle between gordon and willie. The latter publicly stated envoi was the best novice in the british isles, but gordon doesnt listen, he is looking for signs that willie has got something that has improved out of all recognition. They will no doubt have a chat and you wont see AF or EA in a battle at all.
Report buddeliea February 24, 2020 7:05 AM GMT
Personally would love to see EA and Shishkin in the same race,but I think both will stick to the races they are fav for.
I do wonder about AF being separated from Shishkin but don't like they are that bothered taking each other on.
Whatever happens both races are fascinating and look high quality to me.
I think both races will throw up some gooduns going forward.
The AB looks good as well.
Good year for the novices it looks to me.
Report irishone February 24, 2020 7:45 PM GMT
Shiskin ?
Report buddeliea February 24, 2020 8:37 PM GMT
Report woodmanchester February 24, 2020 10:00 PM GMT
Don't even try to make any sense out of him Budd
Report irishone February 25, 2020 9:59 PM GMT
Shiskin ? The favourite !
Not for me
Trainer has a terrible record in the race. One winner in 28 years ?
Report buddeliea February 26, 2020 7:04 AM GMT
Ah I see,you don't think he should be fav,fair enough .

Hendo is very much a trainer for the future with his horses,hence his record in the race,he's quiet easy on his novice hurdlers.
He's had a lot of placed horses in recent years and managed to get horses like sprinter Sacre beaten in the race, so you are right to point out his record.
Personally I see a likeness with Altior as a novice,and I would not be at all surprised if Shishkin does a similar job to this field as Altior did to his.
Report buddeliea February 26, 2020 7:07 AM GMT
Just to add.......if Chantry House turns up in the Suoreme,I think he's one that could scupper that.
Think he's another serious horse,and I'm hoping he goes Ballymore.
Could see a Hendo double,although the Ballymore to me looks a lot tougher.
Report miltons sophie February 26, 2020 7:51 AM GMT
Well only two trainers have had more than one winner since 1992 and one of them doesn’t have a contender so I guess that’s all sorted then.
Report miltons sophie February 26, 2020 7:55 AM GMT
Should have said with a runner didn’t mean to upset anybody with loyalties to Pat Flynn
Report buddeliea February 26, 2020 8:00 AM GMT

Must admit i had not looked at that, i just knew of Hendos record in the race, having had this sort of conversation on here before re Hendo and the novice hurdle races at the festival..
Report irishone February 26, 2020 8:23 AM GMT
Whats he beat lads ?
Report irishone February 26, 2020 8:30 AM GMT
Miltons get your facts straight, noel meade, nichols , willie and pat flynn all won it more than henderson
Report GAZO February 26, 2020 9:05 AM GMT
henderson has won it three times,not bad for such a competitive race
Report buddeliea February 26, 2020 12:07 PM GMT
Since 1992 Hendo has won the race twice, same as Nicholls, Meade and Flynn.
Only Mullins has won more in that time.
Thats according to the list that i have just looked at.
Report buddeliea February 26, 2020 12:18 PM GMT
Whats he beat lads?

Is he priced up as fav on what hes beat, or is he priced on the impression he has given those that determine his odds and those that have backed him?
I think the latter.
Report irishone February 26, 2020 12:22 PM GMT
Yep 28 years won it twice


0nce in 27years and 11 months and 15 days ...ish !
Report buddeliea February 26, 2020 12:23 PM GMT
its certainly the latter that makes me think he should be fav.
I only wish i had nice odds on him,but alas i dont.
Fiddler is the one i have nice prices,so i have hope for the race.
Shishkin is in a few multiples and probably a few more to come.
Report irishone February 26, 2020 12:26 PM GMT
So you have a trainer who rarely wins the race
Up against trainers that have won it plenty of times

You have a horse that has given the impression
Against other horses that aint all that

So why wouldnt anyone question shiskin ?
Report GAZO February 26, 2020 12:29 PM GMT
apart from mullins which trainer has won it plenty of times
Report buddeliea February 26, 2020 12:37 PM GMT
Well one trainer has won it plenty of times.

Anyone can question Shishkin, and i often question Favs.
You are questioning why hes fav, i am trying to work out the answer.

Its difficult with novices, and its unserstandable to simply go with form you think is best and just make that horse fav.
Also one can watch a race or two and form an opinion of a horse visually and what he could do in the Supreme.
After all Supreme winners dont always face Grade 1 oppostion on the road to the Supreme.
Report buddeliea February 26, 2020 12:40 PM GMT
Somethimg has the bookies wary of got any ideas?
Report irishone February 26, 2020 12:49 PM GMT
Trainers that have won it plenty of times..I said

Mullins, elliot, nichols, meade won it collectively about ten times since the start of the century, ALL have entries this year

When it comes to this race
Hendersons record aint all that
Report GAZO February 26, 2020 12:52 PM GMT
so henderson's record is poor because he hasnt won it more than those trainers put together ?
Report buddeliea February 26, 2020 1:11 PM GMT

He has the joint 2nd best record in the race since 1992.
So his aint all that record, is the same as Nicholls and Meade, and better than Elliotts..
So basically, only Mullins has a record that is all that.
Report buddeliea February 26, 2020 1:16 PM GMT
Should be more though, with some iof the talent hes had, and probably would if he trained them differntly as novices.
But a lot of those have gone on to have much success and maybe appreciated not having the gun put to their head as novices.
Its the way he trains.
Altior was a different sort as a novice to say Sprinter, and i see a likeness with Shishkin......visually.
Report irishone February 26, 2020 2:30 PM GMT
I am still questioning the credentials of the horse
...and that of the trainer in this event.

The horse hasnt beaten much and the trainer doesnt have a great record in this event either.

So why would anyone question , (like its a crime against the forums doctrine of divine revelations) , my original question mark against the horse ?
Report buddeliea February 26, 2020 3:05 PM GMT
Well the trainer has proved he can train a horse for this, if its ready, as he has won the race in recent years.

Yes you can question the horse, i expect others are.

Have you an answer to my question as to having any ideas as to why the bookies are wary of Shishkin ? as the prices since his last run suggest.
Report duffy February 26, 2020 3:26 PM GMT
Don't think Chantry House jumps well enough for a Supreme, he doesn't flick through the top, he spends a little longer in the air, I've noticed Geraghty nudging him away from a few hurdles on occasions, Shiskin is a much more speedier hurdler, Abas, has a dodgy attitude, his head carriage was horrible when brought under pressure in the bumper, fiddler will get outpaced and wants the longer race, AF jumps out to his right that will cost him ground and momentum if he runs.

In essence I think there are horses in this race that should be in the longer race, I think Shiskin is a powerful traveller, slick jumper and strong stayer and pacey at the trip.
Report buddeliea February 26, 2020 4:36 PM GMT
Yep, pretty much how I would describe him.
Report impossible123 February 26, 2020 4:54 PM GMT
Shishkin and Chantry House = Altior and Buveur D'Air. For instance, the former are strong travellers, and can quicken, the latter less pacy but stays further.
Report 04arsenalfc. February 26, 2020 5:04 PM GMT
Duffy I'd agree with you regarding the head carriage last year the horse seemed very green & a bit of a monkey.

That being said we haven't seen it this season so I'd be wary using that as a reason to be against him. For me the Envoi Allen/Abracadabras form is rock solid & the best in Ireland by far at the minute.
Report duffy February 26, 2020 5:46 PM GMT
I'm not so sure Arsenal, approaching the final flight he cocked his jaw a bit and late on the gap suddenly lengthened between the two horses that we assume was more down to EA being strong, but something doesn't look quite right to me, I didn't trust Abas effort late on in that race myself and couldn't have him coming up the hill strong enough, I do appreciate how strong the form of that race looks though.
Report miltons sophie February 26, 2020 7:31 PM GMT
A few thoughts re Shishkin. And I will declare significant pocket interest with my first bet being placed March 2019 for this race. I do not have any inside knowledge but there are a few clues that indicate that the trainer has approached this horse and this race a little differently than he sometimes does with his novice hurdlers. Because this is a horse I have had on my mind for a long time I have been on alert for any data points. Despite beating only trees in his bumper I was intrigued that he was I think his only horse in the very early BV ante post market. Now clearly winning his bumper during Cheltenham week would have influenced this but as far as I can recall this remained the case for a number of months. He then gave the horse a very positive shout in his stable tour and indicated that he had this race in mind for him. This for me was significant as it indicated a target and plan that had been thought many months ahead. When he fell fto it presented the real acid test of his intention. This gave him every opportunity to change track and look to one of his other novices to step up and leave Shishkin as more of a longer term project. So when he came out again i took it as a sign that he still had this target in mind. There was then a nervous wait to see if he would run again as it is very rare that a supreme winner does so after just one completed start. When it became clear he was very keen to get him more experience and different entries started appearing then for me it was a loud and clear message that he wasn’t mucking about with this one.

The form against Shan blue is interesting. I thought Shan blue travelled like the best horse in the race in his grade 2 and got out stayed on testing ground by an out and out stayer and before the Huntingdon race I thought the trip and track and slightly bettter ground would present a perfect set of conditions for SB and he would put up a decent test. He was 8s the night before and finished 3s which suggests a lot of stable confidence and DS has talked him up on more than one occasion so I believe the form may be a little better than perhaps it looks on face value. Does he now represent value of course not but I think there are reasons to believe the trainer is approaching him more like an altior than a sprinter for this race.

There is much about my post that can be shot holes at I get that but it’s the combination of science and art that is often needed and particularly so when you are trying to make money from this game with no inside knowledge.
Report impossible123 February 27, 2020 2:16 PM GMT
It's only a game, and horses have a humbling effect on punters and followers. And, I'd been at the receiving end more times I cared to remember.
Report irishone February 28, 2020 11:09 PM GMT
Interesting analysis miltons.
You missed the fact that he ran at inch a very tight undulating p2p course in cork.
He was, couldnt jump and although eventually open he never had enough time to get the gallop going. Nextstop big galoping track lingstown in wexford well drained and wins.
Since then kempton, newbury and huntingdon.
All flat galloping tracks .....

Cheltenham different gravy , soz .
Report buddeliea February 29, 2020 1:25 PM GMT
Well anything is possible in this game,but personally I would not be put off backing the horse because of one point to point performance on his first ever run.

Sounds a bit like clutching at straws to me.
Report irishone February 29, 2020 11:01 PM GMT
Loads of horses get stuck like that at inch
Since then though
He could have run at sandown, fontwell or even cheltenham
To show he could handle it
Instead hendo has stuck to flat galloping tracks
Against what ?
Report buddeliea March 1, 2020 7:46 AM GMT
You know as well as the rest of us how Hendo likes to give his novice hurdlers as easy prep as is possible.

Shishkin should be fine,but another thing we know, until a horse actually runs at Chelt, we don't know for sure.
Theres been fistfuls of winners at Chelt over the years having their first run there.

Not back a horse cos of price, going, or one simply fancies another......fair enough.
Not back a horse cos not ran at Chelt,or cos of one performance in a PTP at Cork on his first ever run.....sheer folly imo.
Report irishone March 1, 2020 9:44 AM GMT
Hendo poor record
Horse has beaten nothing
Horse needs a galloping track

Big straws may not even run
Report buddeliea March 1, 2020 9:54 AM GMT
Doth one protest too much
Report irishone March 1, 2020 10:38 AM GMT
Report buddeliea March 1, 2020 6:05 PM GMT
Rattling off reasons why he won't win the supreme when deep down you know he might.
Report duffy March 1, 2020 6:11 PM GMT
Who do you fancy then irish?
Report FOYLESWAR March 1, 2020 7:24 PM GMT
good support for asterion forlangeno suprise to me if he went off fav for this .
Report irishone March 1, 2020 7:58 PM GMT
11\4 is not a bet for me , wouldnt take treble that to be honest. Why is he still in ballymore betting ? Hes entered for both, why does hendo need the alternative ? My selection will be under 25\1 , and will be irish trained duffy. Theres a few to come out yet .
Report FOYLESWAR March 1, 2020 8:16 PM GMT
sorry meant that post for supreme thread
Report buddeliea March 1, 2020 8:17 PM GMT
Fair enough about the price,I understand that .
You would have to ask Hendo for answers to those questions.........maybe the owners are thinking of all options and one would be to split S and AF.
Anything is possible, but the Ballymore has never been mentioned as far as I know..
My point is I don't see the PTP as a reason not to back S,and I don't see Hendos record in the race or the fact he's not run at Cheltenham or similar to not back him either.
Report irishone March 2, 2020 8:29 AM GMT
"But the ballymore has never been mentioned as far as I know"

....and that Budd is where your argument dies
Report GAZO March 2, 2020 8:37 AM GMT
i take it that you have still got the hump over the potato famine
Report buddeliea March 2, 2020 8:52 AM GMT
Why is that Irish?
Report irishone March 2, 2020 9:25 AM GMT
Because henderson has said hes a ballymore horse, but the problem is gordons got a better one but he aint sure how good willies is.  Shiskin ?
Report buddeliea March 2, 2020 9:32 AM GMT
Well care to share that quote from Hendo.
all ive heard him say is Shiskin goes supreme.
Report miltons sophie March 2, 2020 9:52 AM GMT
Irish I believe you are mistaken
It was nico that mentioned he could go up in trip not hendo. Trainer has always maintained supreme is his race as far as I know. I think you have made your view very clear hendo wont win the supreme and an irish trained horse will. Gl to you.
Report buddeliea March 2, 2020 9:54 AM GMT
Feb 19th 2020

Shishkin you would like to think was one of our best chances and he has looked very good so far and is a genuine two-miler. The Supreme is a nice race to win if you can and it gets the ball rolling and the pressures off a bit. I think he is very good, and he has looked good in his bumper and in two novice hurdles he looked very efficient. He has been visually impressive in all he does, and he doesn’t seem to lack experience and races very professionally. You can press a button on him, and it works. The track should be fine for him – with those sort of horses they are great movers and they have great balance and it shouldn’t bother him.
Report GAZO March 2, 2020 9:56 AM GMT
to be fair after his first win henderson did say the ballymore could be a possibility but after winning at huntingdon he did say it was the supreme,if you look at the quotes in the racingpost
Report irishone March 2, 2020 10:01 AM GMT
Not only that Gazo he went on Racing T V in an interview and said it ! Yes you are right it was after that race at Newbury, but since then you see, other challengers have emerged and he is trying to play the same game as the other two. Not that its a bad thing.... Willie is exactly the same , he manipulates the press.
Report irishone March 2, 2020 10:12 AM GMT
As for you Budd .... you are well capable of sharing quotes from hendo .... where have I heard this before ?

“[Shishkin] is a chaser in the making to be honest, I’m not saying he’s another Altior but he’s an Altior type of horse. He’s got a lot of speed and a lot of scope. He’s a good-looking, big, chasing-type of animal that we rather like.” 

Oh yes ...your posts

"Personally I see a likeness with Altior as a novice,and I would not be at all surprised if Shishkin does a similar job to this field as Altior did to his."

As I said...Hendo well capable of manipulating the media and Budd
Report irishone March 2, 2020 10:25 AM GMT

that should do it for you Budd !
Report miltons sophie March 2, 2020 10:28 AM GMT
Apologies my post was ambiguous. The ballymore came into the picture because nico came back after Newbury and said the horse could go up in trip. Subsequent quotes from hendo concerning the ballymore were triggered by that data point not his direct view.  Thank goodness we don’t have long to wait.
Report miltons sophie March 2, 2020 10:44 AM GMT
Irish... the daily mirror quote was also available in other places and was as a direct result of trainer receiving and processing feedback from the jockey. I think hendo was open minded at that time but to my knowledge never said he was favouring the ballymore. There were other quotes prior to the Huntingdon race that suggested he still thought supreme but nico thought a step up might work. Once the Huntingdon race was done Hendo was 100% supreme and nicos sound bite was archived.

I haven’t seen anything since Huntingdon that suggest anything other than 100% supreme. But with the owner situation and the fact we are dealing with hendo and wpm you can never say never. Like I say thankfully we don’t have long to wait now.
Report buddeliea March 2, 2020 12:14 PM GMT
So i agree with his trainer, so what??!!!

His performance at Huntingdon reminded me of Altiors at Kempton before the Supreme.
That was my observation.
He just to me looks a a similar type, and like Altior will be ready and tougn enough for the Supreme.
And like Altior i expect him to go chasing next Season.
Its nice to see Trainer agrees, but watching the horse i would think it fairly straightforward decision anyway.
Report buddeliea March 2, 2020 12:21 PM GMT
Thanks for the quote, i missed that one.
But its a month before the one i quoted earlier, and came before Huntingdon.
Thanks anyway though.

As Miltons intimates and i also said earlier, the owners may have a big say as they have two currently heading the betting in the Supreme, and may get them seperated.
But this will be them, and not Hendo.
Report irishone March 2, 2020 2:16 PM GMT
Budd ... "So i agree with his trainer"
Budd ..."Its nice to see Trainer agrees" ....(with you ?)

PMSL LaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report buddeliea March 2, 2020 2:23 PM GMT
Fair enough i give you that.
Report buddeliea March 2, 2020 2:33 PM GMT
Still nice to know that Nicky is thinking the same as an expert such as i !!

Report irishone March 2, 2020 3:42 PM GMT
If you cant laugh at yourself ...

Who can you laugh at ?

Report irishone March 2, 2020 9:45 PM GMT
I am not mistaken, you are though
Read the above article
Its hendo going on about the ballymore......
Not nico
So henderson did mention the ballymore and it doesnt matter if it was off advice from the.jockey , you sir , were wrong.
As i said before get your facts straight !
Report miltons sophie March 3, 2020 8:09 AM GMT
Blimey irish u r relentless. I never said he never mentioned the Ballymore I just meant you were mistaken to think he said categorically he was a Ballymore horse. It was just I thought the wording of your 9.25 post was too categoric. I am happy to accept once again I was wrong and good luck in the race.
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