champion chase 2020

I agree with Foyleswar's comments about DD above.

However, having been a massive DDS fan throughout, recent events have persuaded me that CPS is the likeliest winner.  Altior and DDS have awesome Festival records, so you would have to trust that CPS can also produce his best, because he will need to.  But the combination of his most recent win and his defeat of DDS last season, albeit that the latter no doubt peaked for Cheltenham, and may not have been at his absolute best, convince me that he has the strongest overall form now.

Clearly, no sane racing fan would hate to see Altior do it again, but just based on how he is running right now, I think he is vulnerable.

DDS has looked better and better, and it would be unwise to take a dim view of his runs based on what he beat: he can't help how the others run.  But I think CPS might just be a bit better.

If I had 20s DDS on a slip I would be very chuffed.  I am not sure I can see any huge value in any of the top 3 right now, I do think CPS is slightly too big, and even more so if therebis any significant chance of DDS going to the Ryanair.

Just sas Hibores comment about DDS.  I should pay attention.

I am glad, as I have DDS in some multiples (though sadly not at 20s!)

One thing is clear IMO, if you haven't already backed any of the front 3 at bigger odds you couldn't get involved now at their current prices, you can have your idea about the winner and mine is that CPS is the most likely winner, but the negatives that the front 3 all have outweigh their prices.

At the current prices the value has to be Cilaos Emery, he has a big enough question to answer on his jumping and we're not to know how the last day will stack up, he's entered in the red mills so it's obviously been decided that he does need to have a run into before the festival.

What we know about him suggests that he may well have the innate ability to operate at the level required. If we accept that the front 3 have little between them you can consider the line of form that suggests he has the beating of CPS, it's tenuous as there's a few parts involving APT, CPS and Ballyoisin but it's there and you're getting a price for it.

If CPS wins I'll be in the poorhouse. CPS is a 2 miler; DDS is not (I believe) despite winning twice over 2m against a regressive opponent in UDS this season; won The JLT last season.

I believe, and hope Altior can secure a 3rd consecutive victory here after a inauspicious start; his finishing kick after the last will see him in good stead against CPS (a 2 miler) and DDS (who needs further).

Personally, I think DDS is running in the wrong race, and against Altior who's a lethal finishing kick over 2 miles, and CPS a 2 miler.

Well time will tell on that Imp. As I said before to my eyes watching the JLT again the other day the way he finished that race off over 2 and a half mile,suggested to me he would have no problem stepping up to  three miles.Maybe he will at some point,if he flops in this race he would I think.
Still hes running decision made, and to be fair he's looked ok jumping so far over 2 m this season,I hope he can do it in this race which will be a proper test for all of them,no hiding place that's for sure.

I can see the reasoning behind CE being a bit of value,especially if one is thinking the Irish form is better than the British,or at least as good as.
Dynamite Dollars is more than twice the price though.
Actually one could back both,think i will add CE.

The Punchestown race where DDS was beaten fairly and squarely by CPS (one bad jump for DDS there) was telling, and to me it confirmed DDS is no crack 2 miler; DDS beat Lostintranslation (L) in The JLT (too short for L) does not mean DDS will stay 3 miles (either) which I think he'll not. I think it showed he'd more pace than L.

I strongly believe, all things being equal, the race will be between these 3 horses. And, the horse with the finishing kick and (stamina) for slightly further eg he won The Supreme is Altior; CPS was outstayed by APT (budget airline), and probably ring rusty too. However, I do not think he showed he'd quicken when beating MIN another 20f horse (now).

Not long now before we know for sure. If not there's Aintree or Punchestown for a final decider.

Agree it did show he had more pace than LIT.
It also showed to me that DDS would stay further.
Think he looks tailor made for a King George.
Anyway,hes running over 2m, lets see how he does.

Imp, can you add Sceau Royal into your calculations...how does that change things.

Also DDS has run quicker times over 2 miles than Altior has in the last 18 months. How is that possible for a 3 mile plodder

Altior never been one for quick times......he just wins.

3m plodder?? Been plenty of KG winners I would not describe as plodders.

Something that really pleases me is that UDS is apparently still a big form guide to the Champion Chase.
Being such a big fan of the horse over the years,its nice to know that at the age of 11/12 hes still seen as a scalp over 2m. That's despite connections running him in the Ryanair.
Maybe connections will look at the joint fav and give UDS one last hurrah in this years QM.Maybe my pennies on him for the QM should not be torn up just yet

DDS is not running in the Ryanair because he excels over 2 miles and he won’t run in the King George because he excels over 2 miles.

By the end of this thread you will be putting Defi up for the Grand National.

buddeliea
buddeliea 17 Jan 20 13:56 Joined: 19 Mar 04 | Topic/replies: 15,126 | Blogger: buddeliea's blog
Clarence House tomorrow.
If UDS beats DDS then he has to be in the mix for the Champion Chase.
Without Altior I think hes the next best if he don't get beat tomorrow.
Chucked a few bob on him on here at around 23.

Unfortunately DDS thrashed him ....so you would expect DDS to be at least 2nd best horse. But no...he needs 3 miles around kempton. Nuts.

Why you being such an &rse Hibore?

Ive said im glad hes in the QM,and I think if Altior is not within 3lb of his best,i have said I think DDS will win the race, but its certainly possible I am wrong on that and its certainly possible that he does not excel at 2m. First he has to beat proper 2 milers(according to connections UDS has not been one for at least two years now).
   
And I can still give opinions I have when I watch last years JLT.

And I have never said he needs 3 miles !!!

My reply was to your one below.

buddeliea
buddeliea 11 Feb 20 21:04 Joined: 19 Mar 04 | Topic/replies: 15,128 | Blogger: buddeliea's blog
Something that really pleases me is that UDS is apparently still a big form guide to the Champion Chase.
Being such a big fan of the horse over the years,its nice to know that at the age of 11/12 hes still seen as a scalp over 2m. That's despite connections running him in the Ryanair.
Maybe connections will look at the joint fav and give UDS one last hurrah in this years QM.Maybe my pennies on him for the QM should not be torn up just yet Wink

Agree it did show he had more pace than LIT.
It also showed to me that DDS would stay further.
Think he looks tailor made for a King George.

I’m only replying to your posts.

thats the thing with DDS,some see beating UDS over 2 miles as a scalp,some dont

Altior beating him is though ??

I think it’s the race of the meeting now DDS is taking them both on.

May the best horse win and prove they are the new/old superstar.

Well that was a tad tongue in cheek.But it is the form that has Defi as the price he is, and I am convinced it would have been a lot closer had UDS not missed the 2nd last.
Anyway UDS wont run in the race,and Defi may win the race.

As for the future I am just trying to summise where Defi will end up running,not crab his 2m credentials this season.
Ive seen evidence that hes comfortable over the 2m distance,ive also seen evidence that suggests to me he will be effective over further than the JLT distance.

I do agree with you, its the race of the meeting for me too.
And the face that its the CC is a right bonus!!

Fact!!   Tired now !

He’s definitely a very flexible horse that has won over further (maybe because he outspeeded a 3mile plus horse in LIT) but his finishing kick is his most potent weapon which he’s demonstrated over the last two races in very very good times.

Altior looked good on Saturday but not invincible and can remember the forum virtually unanimous that he needs further just after his win last season. There is not much between them at all.

CPS travels well and if getting up the hill will make this a race to saviour.

what distance he is  effective over is for the future but for this race i think he may need it pretty soft going over 2 miles to win this,still think altior is the one to beat but CPS jumping could get them in trouble and i'm sure ken pitterson in the weekender said that he didnt think CPS was fully fit on his last run when beating Min which if correct might make him the one to beat,a great race if they all run but as someone put earlier probally not a betting race unless already on

On National Hunt unless a horse runs from the front eg Sabin Du Loir/Desert Orchid/Faugheen to win their races I'd tend not heed the winning times for these reasons eg ground/pace/runners/etc, even on the Flat unless they are Group races.

DDS has not impressed me this season despite winning the two recognised trials for this race, why? His opponents. And, the only time he faced a promising novice he was put in his place, right and proper by CPS.

I think the Ascot race for Altior has elevated the opinion and status of DDS. Also, I do not think considering Sceau Royal is helpful as he's inconsistent and ground dependent as shown by the sizeable margin of defeat he'd encountered in the soft by Altior and DDS; he was even beaten by Bun Doran!

2 miles on an easy track will suit CPS more than Altior or DDS. And, 2m at Cheltenham is too short for DDS either, in my opinion esp in the presence of Altior.

Altior is a cert , for a place, the question is who is going to beat him ? Henrys has to have soft, willies are right at the top of their game and there are three to chose from if not four,  hobbs at 2\1 not for me and nichols in wrong part of the world. Its hendo v willie again

Imp, what more can any hprse do but win impressively?

This is where formbook literalism lets you down with winning performances.

All they can do is dot up.  Neither horse nor jockey care whether they win by X lengths plus against Y rival at Z weights to impress you.

Form study is important, but watching horses carefully by watching them on video, if not live, is a crucial part of that, not an optional adjunct to the results pages.

The guy is an ejit, he would want them to do three cartwheels and a triple salko before they crossed the line

I do understand nevertheless, I believe the main opposition to Altior is Chacun Pour Soi. I think Defi Du Seuil will make his customary odd mistake over 2m. And, the finishing kick of Altior is too potent for others to deal with at the business end.

Imp, Kemboy was going to beat Delta work in the Irish Gold Cup if I remember rightly. Length here and 3 lengths there...luckily it's not that simple.
I'd watch "Upping the Ante" when they say anyone saying they know who wins the Champion Chase is lying...how can you know when they are so closely matched.

I'll admit I was fairly disappointed with the performance of Kemboy in the Irish Gold Cup however, I'd not anticipated the incessant watering after the 1st day - the sticky ground did him no favour thus the sketchy jumping. Nevertheless, he seemed to have improved against Delta Work (jumped and ridden well by Kennedy), and Presenting Percy, according to his finishing position and distance beaten.

I believe if the ground at Cheltenham in March is better (could be soft but not sticky), and his past running was not an aversion to the course I'd be more than hopeful.

Regards this race, I was an admirer of DDS in The Triumph Hurdle, and after. As a crack 2 miler chaser despite Tingle Creek and Shloer victories I'm not convinced - he needs further than 2m, I firmly believe. But, I think his defeat by CPS in Ireland was telling.

I'm very relief and happy to see the lightning acceleration of Altior at the business end is still with him this season, and as such is the one to beat (again).

I don't know about lightning acceleration but you do have to admit that he was positively spritely up the run in, he scooted away.

But the stereo typical comment we repeatedly hear about Altior, "if he's close at the last etc etc etc", that means little in isolation. If he's close at the last but the pace that CPS made him go through-out the race was such that he was forced to go into the red zone earlier and for an extended period of time then that finishing kick won't be there.

We know that Altior hits a flat spot against significantly lesser rivals, but they could never apply enough pressure to stretch him at that point to capitalize. Douvan aside CPS and DDS are a better class of animal to what he's faced so far.

Yes Altior may well be "there" at the last, but it's only by seeing how he has absorbed what's gone before will we know what comes next.

The finishing kick isn't going to be able to be deployed regardless!!.

C Emery out to 30 on the exchange !!  Any news anyone??

Looks like he's a goner...

It does,but no news yet.
Looks like someone knows though!!

could be supplemented to the champion hurdle

last i heard he is ok but the champion hurdle is possible

I think its not that myself Foyles
Hes 25 for that last I looked.

Come in a bit on here for CH,more drift for this.
Maybe you are right Foyles.
One think for sure,there are some that know more than others do.

He is entered over hurdles at Gowran tomorrow

A race won by the likes of
Danoli
Hardy eustace
In de sceaux
Solwhit
Newmill

Also the same owners so young before he went of favourite for the ballymore.

yep budd saying that according to twitter harry durham nicholls assist trainer said he was speaking to paul nicholls on the phone after pic d,orney got well beaten over christmass ,duham said it was a  dissapointing run as he was quite fancied ,to which nicholls replied not really we will win the betfair with him .....or words to that effect, and he rocks up at 33/1 .course we hear this after the race .

Pic D’orny turn up in the champion hurdle?
Won off 146 last week and this will only take about a 155 to win this awful race.

Looks like my old favourite UDS is gonna have one last Hurrah at the festival in this race.
And will bowl along in front.
Nice one.

I think UDS will be making the pace for CPS - a typical Mr Mullin's ploy in favour of his No 1 owner eg Wylie for Ricci. But no UDS when Douvan was in the picture. By the way how Mr Wylie's horses doing at Closutton? Not heard much recently.

Two of his best ones were killed perhaps that’s why you haven’t heard much of him.

^^
Thanks. What were they called, plz?

Ballyward and invitation only

Barry "Hands Loike Shhilllk" Geraghty will come to the last upsides Altior, a length down on Chacun Pour Soi and win cheekily by half a length with his whi pwaving towards the Wexford Boys

Thanks 'foxy'. I'd not realised Invitation Only had died; Ballyward beat Chris's Dream so pretty decent.

If Altior was infront of CPS with his turbo on after the last DDS would have no chance of passing him because I believe DDS needs much further than 2m eg 20f to show his best unless it's very soft/heavy ground.

Impossible .... this Is a Cheltenham forum. Sometimes you don’t do yourself any favours. I think most on here feel fatalities very deeply. Take a look at when they had their last run

Sorry, I do not follow Irish Racing as closely as here thus had no knowledge of the sad demise of Wylie's charges. If this is offensive to you, tough!

Imp.Did you not watch the Gold Cup last year?

I did, but I was watching Native River, and those at the front. And, to be perfectly honest I'd not realised he ran in it (I assume he did run in the race). If so, why the heck was he running? He'd no credible form and other credentials necessary.

He was at the front when he had his fatal fall.
Also Ballyward had a fatal fall at the festival,if I remember correctly in the amateur handicap chase.

Yes it was in the 4 miler bud

Impossible it beggars belief you watched the gold cup and didn’t know a contender was killed,do you not even read the race reports,and as for not having the credentials to run in the race he had just won the thyestes at Gowran other horses to have had the ordasity to win that race and run in the gold cup were on his own twice he was 2 nd in a gold cup djakadam twice placed in the gold cup,a couple of grand national winners numbersixvalverde and hedgehunter won the race ,champion chase winner flyingbolt and a little horse who was allowed to run in the gold cup rightly or wrongly called arkle.

So really the gold cup should be only contested by 4 or 5 runners each season then,and thanks for goggling if invitation only ran in the gold cup .

By the way he finished only a head behind al boum photo as a novice does that run not count

To save anyone the trouble of having to google Al Boum Photo - he won last year's Gold Cup

I did warn you I'm clinical sometimes selective too. And, I can only focus on just a handful of horse (in-running) unless an unknown is flying at the finish.

ABP fell at the 1st in The RSA when behind PP and Monalee. This was what I found ironic today with Mr Mullins' comment about Kemboy tipping up at the 1st whilst eulogising about the merits of ABP. Could a role reversal happen next month between these two horses? I hope not - I do not like horses falling in NH Racing.

6 "I" s.  Tells you all you need to know.
Full of his own importance !

Abp fell at the 2 nd last in the rsa a relatively well known jockey called ruby Walsh broke his leg in the fall ,why did you think he fell at the first

I believe I read that somewhere (genuine) about ABP. Talking about falling, very few horses of Mr Mullins have suffered that fate esp at the last since Walsh's retirement - from observation. How comforting.

I think there is a problem here.
Everyone is entitled to an opinion.
But when that opinion is not backed up by facts.
Why do people jump on the bandwagon ?
Examples global warming, brexit have made it popular
To go against the facts
Backed up by politicians we dont trust
Journalists with fake news
It has now become normal
To spout absolute rubbish
....and get away with it !

How the feck would impossible know from "observation" about mr mullins horses if he does not follow irish racing on t v ..... The man is a fool

"Id not realised invitation only had died" ..... "Did you not watch the gold cup last year"..."I was watching native river and those at the front" ..... "He was at the front when he suffered the fatal fall"

I have to accept as he says he is clinical he has certainly sorted me out I firmly believe.

If you could check which fence al boum photo fell at in the rsa via goggle again please as both me and mr Mullins thought he fell two out when in third the chances are we are most probably wrong but would just like it confirmed through your genuine sauce.

Willie has had three fall in the last 21 days, anstey,my sister sarah,duc de genievres, all three fell at either the second or third last. This is great testament to the skill of ruby walsh, everyone at closutton knows ruby would have got them to the last before the fall, great jockey.

un des sceux retired due to injury

Absolutely gutted!!..............selfishly, as I was really looking forward to him front running the Champion Chase field on his favoured ground, one last big race and then maybe retirement, would have been great.
But if ever a horse deserved retirement its this fella and apparently its not a serious injury according to Patrick Mullins,so that's good.
Great words from Patrick on TV earlier,and as he said they may never get another quiet like him.

One of my favourite horses of all time, and I will never forget his front running performances he gave us over the years. The Ryanair, when he decided to take the race by the scruff of the neck with a circuit to go was something I certainly will never forget, he was a delight to watch.
Glad I got to see him one last time at Sandown this season.
Happy retirement old fella !!

Well said Buddeliea.

1st or 2nd in 20 of his 23 chase starts.

8 wins over hurdles from 9 starts.

2 from 2 nhf races.

The type of horse you dream of as an owner.

Lovely to see him go out in one piece,enjoy your retirement UDS,fully deserved.

a true warrior did what it said on the tin off in front jumping and catch me if you can ! most of the time they didnt  .

11 left it at the next decs stage, including the big 3.

A Plus Tard and Min also left in this

the best quality race at cheltenham for years, really looking forward to this one

Altior is lame but still
got a chance of running

ok after altiors absence we have 6 runners and i am left with dynamite dollars and politilogue at big prices ante post .happy with that tbh.

What a shame Altior is unable to d battle with Defi and Chacun. Let's hope he's sound for Aintree or Punchestown.

looks a 2 horse race on paper but if we look a little closer could make a case for both the nicholls runners . last year defi beat politi by 1.25 ls at chelten but was rec 3 pound . defi prob improved but has beaten a 12 yo last 2 runs ones around 6/4 thye others 20s plus on here . dynamite dollars was a decent novice last year before a setback but returned with a vg effort behind altior and should be improvement to come available at 16s plus on here . chacan su por looks very good but never been to chelt and around 6/4 not a lot of juice in his price imo.

Agree with that Foyles.
Already have DD at nice price,and will add P this morning.

Unfortunately this race has fallen apart
First time  wont have a decent crack
At it in 16 years

Fallen apart even more now!!
CPS gone.

wow just got back from work  chacan nonner . can go big green and still have 2  decent bets running .

An astute piece of placement by Hobbs to run DDS here and not the budget airline. It's his to lose...surely.

ahem ...................thank you  pumpkin !

a lesson i  hope i have  learned is if you fancy one early doors dont be put off by an indifferent run esp on unsuitable ground over the winter or non appearance at home sat in his box if its a big price keep chipping away at it . a drift due to others impressing  and media bigging them up should not put you off. it was your /my opinion that led to it being backed in the first place a few seemingly indifferent runs shouldnt interfere with the bigger picture the target in march. of course you will have a lot of nonn runners and losers but at big prices you only need 1 or 2 to hit the target  .

There is no price big enough foyles

Ask nicky or willie , altior or chacon

yep and you can never have enough on a winner no matter what price .

3 horse race that completely fell apart before and during, if you fancied one early doors what would have put you off is the realization that all things being equal it was a 3 horse race.

If someone stated early doors that they were supporting the winner and stated that they were doing so in the event that 2 of the first 3 in the market will not run and the other would be beat from the off then fair play to them, but there was no other reason.

A fortunate winner; the other two big runs did not turn-up; the one that did under-performed badly.

seen plenty of so called 2 and  3 horse races and unlucky horses ,bottom line you dont get paid out on  woulda wons or unlucky losers !

Let me rephrase it. Politologue was a very fortuitous winner. But, he deserved it given the effort he'd put into the sport.

on last years Champion Chse form Politologue
was an insulting price on here,wesn't btn
far at all.

We'll have him an odds on shot this time tomoz

as i pointed out earlier in the fred defi beat him 1.25 l at chelt giving 3 pound ,defi was around 5/2 b4  chacon came out politi was 20s plus ,price diff all wrong and defi had beaten a 12 yo twice .

rec 3 pound ^^^

Some classics on here .....impossible saying poli is a 20 furlong horse ...some judge .... Politologues win was very fortutitous

My god there are some thickets on this forum

Well done foyles and penzance , surprised you are going in again now for next year having seen how hard it was for the two of the best trainers to get theirs there fit.

every confidence in nicholls and hendo getting them there a 1 on the day.