The Ballymore

Feb 6, 2019 -- 1:06PM, irishone wrote:

I'll give you twenty that flop when they go back !30 runners in the bumper26/28 Cheltenham festival races per yearEven if the first three came back and won each year you would have 25+ that didnt

When was the last time there were 30 runners in the Bumper?!

It's all about opinions but I firmly believe that young horses who run / win the festival Bumper rarely develop into top notch G1 performers. Since 1992, only 2 winners of the Champion Hurdle, Gold Cup, Stayers Hurdle or Champion Chase had previously ran in the Bumper. Surely you can concede that you'd expect that figure to be higher?

Is that down to the stresses of the race at such an early stage of their career? Perhaps
Would they have been the same animal regardless? Perhaps.

On this occasion I'm inclined to side with Gigginstown. If that helps me rule out the sexier types year on year then I'm happy to go with it. You have your opinions, I'll have mine.

Cue Card
On His Own
Cinders and Ashes
Felix Yonger
The New One
Jezki
Many Clouds
Sizing Tennessee
Black Hercules
Killultagh Vic
Definitely Red
Yanworth
Supasundae
Bellshill
Bacardy's
Augusta Kate


That's just the last 10 years of Bumper "also rans"

If someone gave me that lot I'd take it.

cue card won, don't include him, aside from the winners that list is of course.

You have had a National winner, Champion hurdler, Ballymore winner, a Gold cup placed horse, Supreme winner, Hennessy winner, JLT winner, Stayers hurdle winner, from just the also rans.

Feb 6, 2019 -- 4:45PM, duffy wrote:

Cue CardOn His OwnCinders and AshesFelix YongerThe New OneJezkiMany CloudsSizing TennesseeBlack HerculesKillultagh VicDefinitely RedYanworth SupasundaeBellshillBacardy'sAugusta KateThat's just the last 10 years of Bumper "also rans"If someone gave me that lot I'd take it.

I can play this game too. You take your list and I'll have all of Gigginstown and

Denman
Kauto Star
Bobs Worth
Long Run
Coneygree
Djakadam
Buveur Dair
Faugheen
Hurricane Fly
Big Bucks
Altior
Sprinter Sacre
Master Minded

to name but a few. And if you want to go further back I'll have Arkle, One Man and Dessie too!

Its all about opinions.

Ps Felix Yonger and quite a few others?!
Would be nowhere near a list of noteworthy NH horses by anybody other than the lass who wiped their @rse's in the mornings (even then perhaps!).

Your list is pointless, if you want to hand pick some of the greatest horses of all time against horses that come out of a single race I will happily concede that you will always have the better list

The point that you were making originally was that it was a practical graveyard for horses going forward, It clearly isn't.

I'll retract the Stayer's hurdle claim

No my point was that I avoid horses who've ran in the Cheltenham Bumper at future Cheltenham Festivals. Why you're quoting Hennessys and Grand Nationals only you know.

If it means I miss a Ballymore winner every 10 years I'll take it. GL.

Would they have been the same animal regardless? Perhaps.

Allaho runs tomoro

Ruby ruby ruby ruby

buddeliea 27 Jan 19 13:10 My feeling  at this early stage of his career is Champ is going to be a top top horse, and hes a worthy favourite.

7/2 fav - see no reason to change your mind

btw Allaho is in the ALbert B on Friday

Anyone talk up Galway winner CITY ISLAND on here ?

Yep

well done good call

Elliott reveals that Envoi Allen (2/1 fav) will be "entered in everything" at Cheltenham, although he is still favouring the Ballymore (2m5f). Will be seen next at Naas next month over 2m4f

Envoi Allen has a very tall reputation at home just like Samcro, and is also very short for this too which the latter won. Let's hope he's a lion heart to match.

What like the non staying plodder called MONALEE

Fiddlerontheroof is in the picture for the Ballymore

He is indeed,althpugh I am hoping he stays at 2m for the festival......for my pocket!!!
He looks a horse that will stay further but he does posssess speed for 2 miles.
The way they spoke after it could well be a late decision with the ground on their minds,and it's also possible that the big breakaway will be on their minds as well .
I take some comfort in that the Suoreme has been won by a fair amount of staying types over the years.

If Envoi Allen goes for the Ballymore, the Supreme is going to have a big field. Fiddleronthehoof didn't look short of speed.

Looked to be coming to the end of his tether in the end today, didn't pull away from the 2nd through the last part of the race and the 3rd was really closing down. A stiff ballymore test would be a concern.

duffy quick question but when has he ever pulled away when you talk about coming to the end of his tether??

horse just idles in every race he runs in imo

Fair point, but I thought he looked to be tiring as opposed to idling.

Let me ask you a question, with that race now in our memory banks, and let's say at the prospect of a stiff ballymore test, would you be more confident about his chances after watching that race today than you were yesterday at his prospect of winning the ballymore?

Would not be confident enough to say which race would give EA the best chance of winning a race at Cheltenham, but I would be more confident that EA and Abra will be kept apart.

duffy i suppose it comes down to opposition and the better option for that is the ballymore imo

you have to remember he met 2 nice horses today and they went a decent pace and he put them away easy then just idled (for me anyway and does every time), the way elliott spoke after the race he might of needed the run i know he had a cut after his last win so was entitled to get a little tired. that was the first time he has raced behind a rival so i would of thought he would of learnt plenty

if you are after the answer of he didn't stay i'd argue he will only get better the more he goes up in trip and he probably beat 2 good grade novices today, you don't think he is just going to win on the snaffle every time in grade 1 races, it just isn't going to happen i suspect the connections of place horses today will be delighted as they now know they have a nice horse to go to war with as well

anyway if you owned him and for the long term why would you want to put the gun to his head over shorter, when a lovely opportunity presents itself in the ballymore, you have to remember eilliott put samcro to the sword as a novice in open company and he has struggled to ever get him back, next year you can think of the champion the same as istabraq and hardy eustace did

anyway the world is his oyster duffy do best by the horse i'd say

Yes, do the best for the horse, in that situation then Supreme is the better option, nothing to beat him.

he is by mutathir best form was around   a mile and the dam reaction didnt have great form in france , has saint des saints in the bloodline where the stamina prob  comes from i wouldnt be too confident he will get a lot further than 20f  imo .

I don't see how running in the Supreme is perceived as putting the gun to his head as he is very much in his comfort zone at this trip and how do we decide what the easier route for him is anyway as to me the Supreme looks to be shaping up to be the easier race with the current clear fav being a horse we already know EA can kick out of the way and we know that a stiff 2 miles really does suit him. The Neptune is shaping up to be decent, I assume the Tizzard horses will be split up but both look like strong stayers at the trip who would relish that race.

If EA runs in the Neptune it won't be because they are doing right by the horse it will be because they want to keep the horses apart.

foyles from the limited progeny out of stamina laden mares why would you form any opinion on the sire and the distance his progeny may get??

he has only visited 2 proven blood lines for stamina this mare out of saint des saints and one for paul nicholls who is out of another proven stamina laden mare by cadoudal who looks like he'll stay all day easy run de vassy. very limited evidence to jump on the he'll stay this distance and that distance

The way he finished the race today didn't have the same visual impression of the last time where he in mind hammered the supreme fav by an easy couple of lengths and ran strongly through the line, idling or not he didn't look strong through that last 100 yards today and it was a decent test today, the 3rd horse jumped sketchily for a large part of the race with his worse jumps up the straight and having been firmly under the pump turning in was arguably plugging on the best.

The big breakaway almost certain to run in ballymore according to Tizzard

Only three trainers can win this Willie Gordon or hendo.... Rest are fighting for scraps

For me it is Gordon (1/4) or Colin Tizzard. 10/1 bar 2.

The big breakaway almost certain to run in ballymore according to Tizzard

When was this said, Miltons ?

In an article in the Racing post he says referencing Cheltenham trials day ‘there’s a grade 2 two and a half mile novice hurdle and then he’ll almost certainly be in the Ballymore.

I appreciate the trials race is also called the Ballymore but because of the ‘and then’ I would assume the Ballymore being referred to is the festival Ballymore.. the exchange seems to concur

Thank you.

The other interesting part of the article is a clear strategy to run their novice hurdlers in whatever race they feel is the right race for the horse even if it means running more than one in the same race. I am sure many trainers would be tempted by MD supreme, roof in ballymore and TBB in AB if he stays true to his word then I applaud him.

Just checked exchanges again and it now resembles what it did prior to the article so I hope this is not an example of a very poorly constructed sentence. Maybe other posters can  read the article and see how they interpret it. I was very clear myself originally and now I am second guessing myself.

One point, You say the exchanges back this up, Are you referencing the horses current price in each market or the amounts traded on him ?

No problem, Looks like you covered the question.

I'm just interested in how they campaign this horse as of everything I've seen this year he's the one I'm most interested in for further down the line.

When I checked the markets immediately after I read the article  the back was at 13 and there were unmatched demand at 14 way lower that it had been for some time and the AB price had drifted and a pretty large gap on the unmatched lay. As per my previous post that change has now reversed back. I didn’t check the traded amounts.

When I checked the markets immediately after I read the article  the back was at 13 and there were unmatched demand at 14 way lower that it had been for some time and the AB price had drifted and a pretty large gap on the unmatched lay. As per my previous post that change has now reversed back. I didn’t check the traded amounts.

More than happy to see TBB in the Ballymore as he is in a few of my multiples,I think its the right race and imo hes a major threat to any horse.
Think MD will almost certainly be in Supreme, with FOTR joining one of them depending on ground conditions.
Mr Tizzard has a good bunch of novices, and would be no surprise for me to see one or two becoming top chasers in time.

Fiddler on the roof must have a decent chance to Topol whoever he faces at the festival.

I think if connection runs a horse in The Supreme then more likely connection will be thinking about The Champion Hurdle the following season; Ballymore/Neptune ---> JLT or RSA ---> Gold Cup.

I think Envoi Allen is better suited in the Ballymore/Neptune in March, then JLT or RSA the following season, finally culminating in the Gold Cup the season after. That will be my plan if I was the owner.

Which tizzard was it? THE OLD FELLAHS LOSING THE MARBLES

Agree I think he probably is .... reminds me of Brian clough. It was the son who actually talks a lot of sense imo. I think they realise and are getting him in the media more and more as the weeks go by.

Without sounding like a stuck record I really hope for the horses sake they go Ballymore not AB. He is a March foal five year old with significant future potential.

Ironic really because when Tizzard junior was riding plenty thought he was a bit of a fool!

Think he would be the first to admit he weren't a great jockey, but listening to him I think he may well make a really good trainer.

Joe was not that bad a rider either. He lost out to Ruby at Ditcheat but that was not surprising. I love the way they bring horses along. Slate House being a prime example.

The Big Breakaway is not entered for the 2.5m novice hurdle on Saturday.

Anyone heard anything re Sporting John?
Was due to run yesterday.

Sporting john due to run at Exeter beginning feb. Possibly up against master debonair. Presumably 2m 1f

Great stuff, many thanks.

You’re welcome Budd

The Big Breakaway looks like going straight to Cheltenham now according to trainer.
But he thinks hes a 3 miler apparently, and his son says 2 and a half.
I hope Joe gets his way!!

Very mixed Pedigree for the big breakaway with Verdana Blue 2m good, and others of that sire staying 3m5 good!

Very happy with that, another half mile be even better.

you talking of chantry house deptford? be in the supreme i would of thought myself

Yes mate, def Ballymore.

interesting we will see i suppose

We all know plans change, that is a given, have had a dabble nrnb Supreme but rest for Ballymore, was told a while ago that it was being aimed for that race, so bound to run Supreme!!

Lovely horse Chantry House. Backed him for the Supreme though.

who told you the ballymore deptford? reliable source?

Yes mate, but we all know what can happen!

don't see it myself but we will see pal

Taken the view.......rightly or wrongly, that they will not want to take on Shishkin,so have taken 14 Chantry House for this race.
Think it's a cracking price if he turns up here.

Agreed ^

HDB has targetted this race for a few of his, if not getting in the handicaps beckon

i can't figure it out deptford chantry house trading at big odds for supreme and backed for ballymore in the week then today all change. anything been said i can't find anything

sorry deptford not thinking straight, obviously because of sporting john

Sporting John looked really slick with his jumping, getting from a to b quickly. Jumped left though, which should be helped by Cheltenham’s left handed course.
Can it recover in three and a half weeks to be at peak form though?

As it stands their appears to be one hell of a depth of quality among this years crop of novices, it's absolutely stacked

Will JP be keen to let both run in same race?

i'm more worried he won't run him in either race deptford myself no real market confidence in either race imo

Does Chantry House jump well enough for the Supreme, he's a little bit upppp and ooovvveerr, just looks like he spends a fraction too long through the air, it's not a low trajectory  I think, the hurdles don't really help him. Geraghty has had to nudge him away from his hurdles on occasions, Shiskin for example is lower, flicking through them more and lands running, think CH would get bustled back due to that in a Supreme as his jumping gets put under pressure.

Great all debating what we think, hope, and not am idiot in sight on here!!

Looks like Chantry going to the Supreme.

Yep,it does.
Got it wrong...........oh well.

Where you see that?

The market on here would suggest it Deptford. Nothing official

Anyone got JP contacrt details? I will tell him to run here.

Nicky just said Supreme on Unibet preview.

Not trying to be funny
But willies got about five in this
That could win it

Good,cos you ain't!!

Back to the serious stuff.........any of those five you fancy Irish?
Nice prices available.

Spoke to Willie many years ago at Galway, the day Penhill won the big race,  and his attitude was "you never know" , everything  I have heard from him on T V and in the papers suggests that attitude stays with him, he had the first three in the bumper a few years back with 5 runners, and before the race he didn't know which was best in,  but I have learned something from him that I now know 100 per cent and that is in this game you never ever know for certain. 

How many times have him and Aiden had two or more horses in the race and the market gets them wrong ?

I remember very well Champagne Fever in the Supreme being available at big odds,and the Bumper winner that Ruby rode for the Wylies(forget his name but turned out a real stayer) was 33/1 or something like that.

Just looked it up....horse was Briar Hill, SP 25/1.
C fever SP was 5/1 but i know its was a lot bigger than that just before the day.

Actually looking at Briar Hill, although he did have a few races at 3m, his best results were over less, so not really a real stayer as such.
Smashed the Bumper field.

Was watching the briar hill bumper from members and about four furlongs out fellah next to me shouted THAT AINT RUBY COMING UP ON THE STAND SIDE IS IT  ?  FOR FECKS SAKE ....dont think he backed it !

Kinda backs up what you saying about Mullins, with his stable jockey riding a 25/1 shot.

Champagne fever was the best though, willie got.him spot on, taPes up,out and gone, nothing got near him, year later next race we saw at cheltenham dots up again

Still cant believe he got beat in the Arkle!!

Had a bit each way today on nolans 25\1
Heard there were excuses with loss to abracadabras
Won his maiden at galway, needs soft,
Any horse that can handle soft at galway
Can handle soft at cheltenham
Last year city island won at galway
Rachels got to be up though not cooper. Lol
Will get 33\1 on track
as they plough into gordons
Nolan is good when unlocking potential

Taken 20 nrnb
Agree hes interesting if he turns up in this on soft ground.

I wonder if Thyme Hill might end up here as well,given likely ground?

Interesting but non of the intended runners have actually won in graded company. They must be licking there chops if envoi Allen turns down the opportunity