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buddeliea
27 Jan 19 15:10
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Date Joined: 19 Mar 04
| Topic/replies: 15,701 | Blogger: buddeliea's blog
My feeling  at this early stage of his career is Champ is going to be a top top horse, and hes a worthy favourite.
Sadly I have missed the boat and have no nice antepost voucher.
I do have a nice price for Brewinupastorm however, and was impressed with him yesterday, until the last.
Will stick with that, and add Champ at some stage.
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Report Somerset Sam February 6, 2019 12:23 PM GMT

Feb 6, 2019 -- 1:06PM, irishone wrote:


I'll give you twenty that flop when they go back !30 runners in the bumper26/28 Cheltenham festival races per yearEven if the first three came back and won each year you would have 25+ that didnt


When was the last time there were 30 runners in the Bumper?!

It's all about opinions but I firmly believe that young horses who run / win the festival Bumper rarely develop into top notch G1 performers. Since 1992, only 2 winners of the Champion Hurdle, Gold Cup, Stayers Hurdle or Champion Chase had previously ran in the Bumper. Surely you can concede that you'd expect that figure to be higher?

Is that down to the stresses of the race at such an early stage of their career? Perhaps
Would they have been the same animal regardless? Perhaps.

On this occasion I'm inclined to side with Gigginstown. If that helps me rule out the sexier types year on year then I'm happy to go with it. You have your opinions, I'll have mine.

Report duffy February 6, 2019 3:45 PM GMT
Cue Card
On His Own
Cinders and Ashes
Felix Yonger
The New One
Jezki
Many Clouds
Sizing Tennessee
Black Hercules
Killultagh Vic
Definitely Red
Yanworth
Supasundae
Bellshill
Bacardy's
Augusta Kate


That's just the last 10 years of Bumper "also rans"

If someone gave me that lot I'd take it.
Report duffy February 6, 2019 3:46 PM GMT
cue card won, don't include him, aside from the winners that list is of course.
Report duffy February 6, 2019 3:49 PM GMT
You have had a National winner, Champion hurdler, Ballymore winner, a Gold cup placed horse, Supreme winner, Hennessy winner, JLT winner, Stayers hurdle winner, from just the also rans.
Report Somerset Sam February 6, 2019 4:20 PM GMT

Feb 6, 2019 -- 4:45PM, duffy wrote:


Cue CardOn His OwnCinders and AshesFelix YongerThe New OneJezkiMany CloudsSizing TennesseeBlack HerculesKillultagh VicDefinitely RedYanworth SupasundaeBellshillBacardy'sAugusta KateThat's just the last 10 years of Bumper "also rans"If someone gave me that lot I'd take it.


I can play this game too. You take your list and I'll have all of Gigginstown and

Denman
Kauto Star
Bobs Worth
Long Run
Coneygree
Djakadam
Buveur Dair
Faugheen
Hurricane Fly
Big Bucks
Altior
Sprinter Sacre
Master Minded

to name but a few. And if you want to go further back I'll have Arkle, One Man and Dessie too!

Its all about opinions.

Report Somerset Sam February 6, 2019 4:34 PM GMT
Ps Felix Yonger and quite a few others?!
Would be nowhere near a list of noteworthy NH horses by anybody other than the lass who wiped their @rse's in the mornings (even then perhaps!).
Report duffy February 6, 2019 4:39 PM GMT
Your list is pointless, if you want to hand pick some of the greatest horses of all time against horses that come out of a single race I will happily concede that you will always have the better listCrazyCrazy

The point that you were making originally was that it was a practical graveyard for horses going forward, It clearly isn't.
Report duffy February 6, 2019 4:47 PM GMT
I'll retract the Stayer's hurdle claimBlush
Report Somerset Sam February 6, 2019 4:49 PM GMT
No my point was that I avoid horses who've ran in the Cheltenham Bumper at future Cheltenham Festivals. Why you're quoting Hennessys and Grand Nationals only you know.

If it means I miss a Ballymore winner every 10 years I'll take it. GL.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 6, 2019 10:32 PM GMT
Would they have been the same animal regardless? Perhaps.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 13, 2019 9:36 PM GMT
Allaho runs tomoro Wink
Report irishone March 11, 2019 3:59 PM GMT
Ruby ruby ruby ruby
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 13, 2019 11:33 AM GMT
buddeliea 27 Jan 19 13:10 My feeling  at this early stage of his career is Champ is going to be a top top horse, and hes a worthy favourite.

7/2 fav - see no reason to change your mind Devil
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 13, 2019 11:35 AM GMT
btw Allaho is in the ALbert B on Friday Wink
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 13, 2019 12:16 PM GMT
Anyone talk up Galway winner CITY ISLAND on here ?
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 13, 2019 1:48 PM GMT
YepDevil
Report FOYLESWAR March 13, 2019 2:25 PM GMT
well done good call
Report Catch Me ifyoucan December 27, 2019 3:18 PM GMT
Elliott reveals that Envoi Allen (2/1 fav) will be "entered in everything" at Cheltenham, although he is still favouring the Ballymore (2m5f). Will be seen next at Naas next month over 2m4f Devil
Report impossible123 December 27, 2019 7:21 PM GMT
Envoi Allen has a very tall reputation at home just like Samcro, and is also very short for this too which the latter won. Let's hope he's a lion heart to match.
Report irishone December 28, 2019 5:54 PM GMT
What like the non staying plodder called MONALEE
Report Catch Me ifyoucan January 4, 2020 10:18 PM GMT
Fiddlerontheroof is in the picture for the Ballymore
Report buddeliea January 5, 2020 6:49 AM GMT
He is indeed,althpugh I am hoping he stays at 2m for the festival......for my pocket!!!
He looks a horse that will stay further but he does posssess speed for 2 miles.
The way they spoke after it could well be a late decision with the ground on their minds,and it's also possible that the big breakaway will be on their minds as well .
I take some comfort in that the Suoreme has been won by a fair amount of staying types over the years.
Report sageform January 5, 2020 3:01 PM GMT
If Envoi Allen goes for the Ballymore, the Supreme is going to have a big field. Fiddleronthehoof didn't look short of speed.
Report duffy January 5, 2020 3:18 PM GMT
Looked to be coming to the end of his tether in the end today, didn't pull away from the 2nd through the last part of the race and the 3rd was really closing down. A stiff ballymore test would be a concern.
Report harry callaghan January 5, 2020 3:25 PM GMT
duffy quick question but when has he ever pulled away when you talk about coming to the end of his tether??

horse just idles in every race he runs in imo
Report duffy January 5, 2020 3:33 PM GMT
Fair point, but I thought he looked to be tiring as opposed to idling.

Let me ask you a question, with that race now in our memory banks, and let's say at the prospect of a stiff ballymore test, would you be more confident about his chances after watching that race today than you were yesterday at his prospect of winning the ballymore?
Report buddeliea January 5, 2020 3:51 PM GMT
Would not be confident enough to say which race would give EA the best chance of winning a race at Cheltenham, but I would be more confident that EA and Abra will be kept apart.
Report harry callaghan January 5, 2020 4:20 PM GMT
duffy i suppose it comes down to opposition and the better option for that is the ballymore imo

you have to remember he met 2 nice horses today and they went a decent pace and he put them away easy then just idled (for me anyway and does every time), the way elliott spoke after the race he might of needed the run i know he had a cut after his last win so was entitled to get a little tired. that was the first time he has raced behind a rival so i would of thought he would of learnt plenty

if you are after the answer of he didn't stay i'd argue he will only get better the more he goes up in trip and he probably beat 2 good grade novices today, you don't think he is just going to win on the snaffle every time in grade 1 races, it just isn't going to happen i suspect the connections of place horses today will be delighted as they now know they have a nice horse to go to war with as well

anyway if you owned him and for the long term why would you want to put the gun to his head over shorter, when a lovely opportunity presents itself in the ballymore, you have to remember eilliott put samcro to the sword as a novice in open company and he has struggled to ever get him back, next year you can think of the champion the same as istabraq and hardy eustace did

anyway the world is his oyster duffy do best by the horse i'd say
Report Deptford January 5, 2020 4:22 PM GMT
Yes, do the best for the horse, in that situation then Supreme is the better option, nothing to beat him.
Report FOYLESWAR January 5, 2020 4:42 PM GMT
he is by mutathir best form was around   a mile and the dam reaction didnt have great form in france , has saint des saints in the bloodline where the stamina prob  comes from i wouldnt be too confident he will get a lot further than 20f  imo .
Report duffy January 5, 2020 5:00 PM GMT
I don't see how running in the Supreme is perceived as putting the gun to his head as he is very much in his comfort zone at this trip and how do we decide what the easier route for him is anyway as to me the Supreme looks to be shaping up to be the easier race with the current clear fav being a horse we already know EA can kick out of the way and we know that a stiff 2 miles really does suit him. The Neptune is shaping up to be decent, I assume the Tizzard horses will be split up but both look like strong stayers at the trip who would relish that race.

If EA runs in the Neptune it won't be because they are doing right by the horse it will be because they want to keep the horses apart.
Report harry callaghan January 5, 2020 5:01 PM GMT
foyles from the limited progeny out of stamina laden mares why would you form any opinion on the sire and the distance his progeny may get??

he has only visited 2 proven blood lines for stamina this mare out of saint des saints and one for paul nicholls who is out of another proven stamina laden mare by cadoudal who looks like he'll stay all day easy run de vassy. very limited evidence to jump on the he'll stay this distance and that distance
Report duffy January 5, 2020 6:05 PM GMT
The way he finished the race today didn't have the same visual impression of the last time where he in mind hammered the supreme fav by an easy couple of lengths and ran strongly through the line, idling or not he didn't look strong through that last 100 yards today and it was a decent test today, the 3rd horse jumped sketchily for a large part of the race with his worse jumps up the straight and having been firmly under the pump turning in was arguably plugging on the best.
Report miltons sophie January 5, 2020 10:26 PM GMT
The big breakaway almost certain to run in ballymore according to Tizzard
Report irishone January 6, 2020 7:55 AM GMT
Only three trainers can win this Willie Gordon or hendo.... Rest are fighting for scraps
Report sageform January 6, 2020 9:00 AM GMT
For me it is Gordon (1/4) or Colin Tizzard. 10/1 bar 2.
Report gutfeeling January 6, 2020 11:04 AM GMT
The big breakaway almost certain to run in ballymore according to Tizzard

When was this said, Miltons ?
Report miltons sophie January 6, 2020 11:28 AM GMT
In an article in the Racing post he says referencing Cheltenham trials day ‘there’s a grade 2 two and a half mile novice hurdle and then he’ll almost certainly be in the Ballymore.

I appreciate the trials race is also called the Ballymore but because of the ‘and then’ I would assume the Ballymore being referred to is the festival Ballymore.. the exchange seems to concur
Report gutfeeling January 6, 2020 11:32 AM GMT
Thank you.
Report miltons sophie January 6, 2020 11:35 AM GMT
The other interesting part of the article is a clear strategy to run their novice hurdlers in whatever race they feel is the right race for the horse even if it means running more than one in the same race. I am sure many trainers would be tempted by MD supreme, roof in ballymore and TBB in AB if he stays true to his word then I applaud him.
Report miltons sophie January 6, 2020 11:44 AM GMT
Just checked exchanges again and it now resembles what it did prior to the article so I hope this is not an example of a very poorly constructed sentence. Maybe other posters can  read the article and see how they interpret it. I was very clear myself originally and now I am second guessing myself.
Report gutfeeling January 6, 2020 11:49 AM GMT
One point, You say the exchanges back this up, Are you referencing the horses current price in each market or the amounts traded on him ?
Report gutfeeling January 6, 2020 12:03 PM GMT
No problem, Looks like you covered the question.

I'm just interested in how they campaign this horse as of everything I've seen this year he's the one I'm most interested in for further down the line.
Report miltons sophie January 6, 2020 12:04 PM GMT
When I checked the markets immediately after I read the article  the back was at 13 and there were unmatched demand at 14 way lower that it had been for some time and the AB price had drifted and a pretty large gap on the unmatched lay. As per my previous post that change has now reversed back. I didn’t check the traded amounts.
Report miltons sophie January 6, 2020 12:04 PM GMT
When I checked the markets immediately after I read the article  the back was at 13 and there were unmatched demand at 14 way lower that it had been for some time and the AB price had drifted and a pretty large gap on the unmatched lay. As per my previous post that change has now reversed back. I didn’t check the traded amounts.
Report buddeliea January 6, 2020 12:27 PM GMT
More than happy to see TBB in the Ballymore as he is in a few of my multiples,I think its the right race and imo hes a major threat to any horse.
Think MD will almost certainly be in Supreme, with FOTR joining one of them depending on ground conditions.
Mr Tizzard has a good bunch of novices, and would be no surprise for me to see one or two becoming top chasers in time.
Report duffy January 6, 2020 5:31 PM GMT
Fiddler on the roof must have a decent chance to Topol whoever he faces at the festival.Cool
Report impossible123 January 6, 2020 7:53 PM GMT
I think if connection runs a horse in The Supreme then more likely connection will be thinking about The Champion Hurdle the following season; Ballymore/Neptune ---> JLT or RSA ---> Gold Cup.

I think Envoi Allen is better suited in the Ballymore/Neptune in March, then JLT or RSA the following season, finally culminating in the Gold Cup the season after. That will be my plan if I was the owner.
Report irishone January 6, 2020 9:55 PM GMT
Which tizzard was it? THE OLD FELLAHS LOSING THE MARBLES
Report miltons sophie January 7, 2020 7:14 AM GMT
Agree I think he probably is .... reminds me of Brian clough. It was the son who actually talks a lot of sense imo. I think they realise and are getting him in the media more and more as the weeks go by.

Without sounding like a stuck record I really hope for the horses sake they go Ballymore not AB. He is a March foal five year old with significant future potential.
Report duffy January 7, 2020 2:58 PM GMT
Ironic really because when Tizzard junior was riding plenty thought he was a bit of a fool!
Report buddeliea January 7, 2020 4:46 PM GMT
Think he would be the first to admit he weren't a great jockey, but listening to him I think he may well make a really good trainer.
Report sageform January 7, 2020 7:35 PM GMT
Joe was not that bad a rider either. He lost out to Ruby at Ditcheat but that was not surprising. I love the way they bring horses along. Slate House being a prime example.
Report li January 20, 2020 2:05 PM GMT
The Big Breakaway is not entered for the 2.5m novice hurdle on Saturday.
Report buddeliea January 26, 2020 10:26 AM GMT
Anyone heard anything re Sporting John?
Was due to run yesterday.
Report miltons sophie January 27, 2020 9:19 AM GMT
Sporting john due to run at Exeter beginning feb. Possibly up against master debonair. Presumably 2m 1f
Report buddeliea January 27, 2020 12:19 PM GMT
Great stuff, many thanks.
Report miltons sophie January 27, 2020 12:21 PM GMT
You’re welcome Budd
Report buddeliea January 28, 2020 7:58 AM GMT
The Big Breakaway looks like going straight to Cheltenham now according to trainer.
But he thinks hes a 3 miler apparently, and his son says 2 and a half.
I hope Joe gets his way!!
Report ENGLANDBARNES1 January 28, 2020 8:37 AM GMT
Very mixed Pedigree for the big breakaway with Verdana Blue 2m good, and others of that sire staying 3m5 good!
Report Deptford February 8, 2020 1:25 PM GMT
Very happy with that, another half mile be even better.
Report harry callaghan February 8, 2020 1:44 PM GMT
you talking of chantry house deptford? be in the supreme i would of thought myself
Report Deptford February 8, 2020 1:50 PM GMT
Yes mate, def Ballymore.
Report harry callaghan February 8, 2020 1:51 PM GMT
interesting we will see i suppose
Report Deptford February 8, 2020 1:59 PM GMT
We all know plans change, that is a given, have had a dabble nrnb Supreme but rest for Ballymore, was told a while ago that it was being aimed for that race, so bound to run Supreme!!
Report Try My Best February 8, 2020 2:15 PM GMT
Lovely horse Chantry House. Backed him for the Supreme though.
Report harry callaghan February 8, 2020 3:17 PM GMT
who told you the ballymore deptford? reliable source?
Report Deptford February 8, 2020 3:25 PM GMT
Yes mate, but we all know what can happen!
Report harry callaghan February 8, 2020 3:27 PM GMT
don't see it myself but we will see pal
Report buddeliea February 10, 2020 7:17 PM GMT
Taken the view.......rightly or wrongly, that they will not want to take on Shishkin,so have taken 14 Chantry House for this race.
Think it's a cracking price if he turns up here.
Report Deptford February 10, 2020 8:48 PM GMT
Agreed ^
Report irishone February 10, 2020 9:34 PM GMT
HDB has targetted this race for a few of his, if not getting in the handicaps beckon
Report harry callaghan February 15, 2020 3:52 PM GMT
i can't figure it out deptford chantry house trading at big odds for supreme and backed for ballymore in the week then today all change. anything been said i can't find anything
Report harry callaghan February 15, 2020 5:09 PM GMT
sorry deptford not thinking straight, obviously because of sporting john
Report ENGLANDBARNES1 February 15, 2020 11:43 PM GMT
Sporting John looked really slick with his jumping, getting from a to b quickly. Jumped left though, which should be helped by Cheltenham’s left handed course.
Can it recover in three and a half weeks to be at peak form though?
Report duffy February 16, 2020 4:08 AM GMT
As it stands their appears to be one hell of a depth of quality among this years crop of novices, it's absolutely stackedCool
Report Deptford February 16, 2020 9:33 AM GMT
Will JP be keen to let both run in same race?
Report harry callaghan February 16, 2020 10:03 AM GMT
i'm more worried he won't run him in either race deptford myself no real market confidence in either race imo
Report duffy February 16, 2020 5:32 PM GMT
Does Chantry House jump well enough for the Supreme, he's a little bit upppp and ooovvveerr, just looks like he spends a fraction too long through the air, it's not a low trajectory  I think, the hurdles don't really help him. Geraghty has had to nudge him away from his hurdles on occasions, Shiskin for example is lower, flicking through them more and lands running, think CH would get bustled back due to that in a Supreme as his jumping gets put under pressure.
Report Deptford February 16, 2020 5:35 PM GMT
Great all debating what we think, hope, and not am idiot in sight on here!!
Report Try My Best February 28, 2020 10:55 PM GMT
Looks like Chantry going to the Supreme.
Report buddeliea February 29, 2020 7:37 AM GMT
Yep,it does.
Got it wrong...........oh well.
Report Deptford February 29, 2020 8:04 AM GMT
Where you see that?
Report Try My Best February 29, 2020 9:19 AM GMT
The market on here would suggest it Deptford. Nothing official
Report Deptford March 3, 2020 7:01 PM GMT
Anyone got JP contacrt details? I will tell him to run here.
Report Deptford March 3, 2020 7:45 PM GMT
Nicky just said Supreme on Unibet preview.
Report irishone March 3, 2020 8:35 PM GMT
Not trying to be funny
But willies got about five in this
That could win it
Report buddeliea March 4, 2020 6:32 AM GMT
Good,cos you ain't!!
Laugh
Report buddeliea March 4, 2020 7:38 AM GMT
Back to the serious stuff.........any of those five you fancy Irish?
Nice prices available.
Report irishone March 4, 2020 11:04 AM GMT
Spoke to Willie many years ago at Galway, the day Penhill won the big race,  and his attitude was "you never know" , everything  I have heard from him on T V and in the papers suggests that attitude stays with him, he had the first three in the bumper a few years back with 5 runners, and before the race he didn't know which was best in,  but I have learned something from him that I now know 100 per cent and that is in this game you never ever know for certain. 

How many times have him and Aiden had two or more horses in the race and the market gets them wrong ?
Report buddeliea March 4, 2020 12:17 PM GMT
I remember very well Champagne Fever in the Supreme being available at big odds,and the Bumper winner that Ruby rode for the Wylies(forget his name but turned out a real stayer) was 33/1 or something like that.
Report buddeliea March 4, 2020 12:31 PM GMT
Just looked it up....horse was Briar Hill, SP 25/1.
C fever SP was 5/1 but i know its was a lot bigger than that just before the day.
Report buddeliea March 4, 2020 12:38 PM GMT
Actually looking at Briar Hill, although he did have a few races at 3m, his best results were over less, so not really a real stayer as such.
Smashed the Bumper field.
Report irishone March 4, 2020 1:21 PM GMT
Was watching the briar hill bumper from members and about four furlongs out fellah next to me shouted THAT AINT RUBY COMING UP ON THE STAND SIDE IS IT  ?  FOR FECKS SAKE ....dont think he backed it !
Report buddeliea March 4, 2020 1:25 PM GMT
Kinda backs up what you saying about Mullins, with his stable jockey riding a 25/1 shot.
Report irishone March 4, 2020 1:26 PM GMT
Champagne fever was the best though, willie got.him spot on, taPes up,out and gone, nothing got near him, year later next race we saw at cheltenham dots up again
Report buddeliea March 4, 2020 1:27 PM GMT
Still cant believe he got beat in the Arkle!!
Report irishone March 5, 2020 8:05 PM GMT
Had a bit each way today on nolans 25\1
Heard there were excuses with loss to abracadabras
Won his maiden at galway, needs soft,
Any horse that can handle soft at galway
Can handle soft at cheltenham
Last year city island won at galway
Rachels got to be up though not cooper. Lol
Will get 33\1 on track
as they plough into gordons
Nolan is good when unlocking potential
Report buddeliea March 5, 2020 9:00 PM GMT
Taken 20 nrnb
Agree hes interesting if he turns up in this on soft ground.

I wonder if Thyme Hill might end up here as well,given likely ground?
Report harry callaghan March 5, 2020 11:31 PM GMT
Interesting but non of the intended runners have actually won in graded company. They must be licking there chops if envoi Allen turns down the opportunity
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