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Hibore
30 Dec 18 17:26
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Date Joined: 23 Jun 07
| Topic/replies: 1,650 | Blogger: Hibore's blog
We have a number of threads about certain contenders but not a thread to discuss the race as a whole. I think the race has become clearer over Xmas with horses ruling themselves out rather than enhancing their chances. The shape of the race is also perhaps easier to work out if you dismiss certain runners that may take up their chances in other races.

At this moment their are only 6-7 runners that have shown enough to be considered feasible winners of the race. Native River, Kemboy, Clan Des Obeaux, Road to Respect, Thistlecrack of those who have run and Presenting Percy and maybe Waiting Patiently of those who haven’t. Other horses could join the party over the next 6 weeks or so.

I put up Native River last year at 16/1 about this time after and currently think on all known evidence he’s the horse with least answers to find. I backed him for this year at 9/1 straight after the the race but at 11/2 antepost he’s now short enough 3 months out. 9/2 NRNB e/w with bet356 could be a decent play as the race could cut up badly and if he wins the Denman he could be 5/2 by the time of the race. Also Coneygree is unlikely to run I’d guess and should be aimed at something less taxing. This will allow Native to get to the front or at least won’t get revved up by him bombing off.

The 3 horses I have most doubts about are Clan Des Obeaux (course and distance), Thistlecrack (distance) and Waiting Patiently (distance). Kemboy is very short in the betting now but is improving. He looks a similar horse to Bellshill to me and wonder if he would last out a Gold Cup. I would like to see him in the Cotswold but think he’ll stay in Ireland.

Presenting Percy is very very short and no value at all. He’s obviously a good horse but has so many questions to answer regarding distance and class. 5/1 when he’s not run and keep getting pulled for ground and not being 100% wouldn’t interest many people I’d guess.

The 2nd horse I have backed e/w as well as Natuve and think is very good value is Road to Respect. He ran a good race in last year’s Gold Cup and would have been 3rd if he’d jumped better. The jumping still needs working on but he has a bit of class and ran on stoutly up the hill. He had excuses behind Kemboy the other day and at 12/1 NRNB is a great price for a horse guaranteed to be running all the way to line in the Gold Cup.

So I’m on 9/1 win (from March 2018) Native River and 12/1 e/w NRNB (14/1 available now on exchange) Road to Respect. Of the odds now Road to Respect is more a 8/1 shot in my book.

I’d be interested in others thoughts as we had some good discussions last year.

Hibore
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Report differentdrum February 19, 2019 5:48 PM GMT
Not arguing that a hold up horse cannot win the Gold Cup but I don't think any of those mentioned won their Gold Cups in the same style to Presenting Percy cruising round on the bridle in last year's RSA.
Report impossible123 February 19, 2019 6:27 PM GMT
I believe CDO is a different horse to his juvenile days, and he's still only 7. The KG was a 1st hint he's matured and progressed; the Denman was confirmation. And, his pulling-away from Terrefort at the business end was eye-pleasing (accused of idling once infront), and augered well for the Cheltenham hill.

As for PP, I shall leave his connections to their own devises; the Savill Chase's form is inferior.
Report johnslad February 20, 2019 6:37 PM GMT
Take a day off
Report Meat Loaf February 20, 2019 8:20 PM GMT
I get the impression Mullins thinks Belshill is his best chance despite Kemboy being shorter in the market.

Wouldn't surprise me if it is a Mullins 1-2-3 as he's got 4 great chances imo.
Report Hibore February 20, 2019 9:32 PM GMT
More likely 4,5,6.
Report muse February 20, 2019 10:37 PM GMT
impossible123, I don't want to get in the way of the tussle you and irishone are enjoying over PP, but I do take issue over one thing.

You keep repeating, ad nauseam, that PPs RSA win should be downgraded because he 'only beat a non stayer' in Monalee. 

Take Monalee out of the race and look at the form again. Ballyoptic went on to get touched off in the Scottish National, a race in which the first and third were both very well treated at the time. And Elegant Escape, whether or not quite up to Gold Cup class, has strung together some unimpeachable in the Ladbroke, Welsh National and at Sandown.

I am a fan of PP, but I am not for a second claiming the price is right. But for you to keep insisting that there is no form case to be made and it is ALL just hype, does not stand up to examination.
Report impossible123 February 20, 2019 11:34 PM GMT
I cannot remember saying the RSA should be downgraded. However, I've consistently said PP beat a non-stayer in Monalee (I firmly believe that), and I read somewhere even his trainer hinted he'd have run him in the wrong race last Cheltenham. On the other hand Ballyoptic (B) and Elegant Escape (EE) are stayers, the latter a big fancy in the Grand National, and improving progressively.

PP could turn out to be a very good horse, but not until he's actually battled with Gold Cup runners; a Listed, RSA and Gd 2 hurdle winner does not automatically make him fav for the Blue Riband; he needs to find at least 7lbs to match NR, and probably CDO on what he's achieved so far.

Tiger Roll won The Triumph (Gd 1); Grand National; a Gd 2 hurdle. Does that mean he'll be fav for the Gold Cup (if running)? Of course not despite having much more experience than PP. However, one can safely and confidently deduce PP was "well placed" to stay unbeaten post his RSA victory.
Report muse February 21, 2019 7:52 PM GMT
impossible 123 Fair enough, and I appreciate that, unlike many on here, you are putting the effort in to assess them on form and make a judgemment. Just looking at the race again, I think we could be in for a superb treat this year.

I think the Mullins trio are all interesting in different ways; think Native River might give it a right go and think Presenting Percy may well prove the real deal, especially if the going is good ish.

But the more time goes on, the early bet J am most excited about value wise is Clan des Obeaux. The way he pricked his ears and went back on the steel when he turned for home, and then picked up when shaken up, is as eye catching as anything I have seen this season over fences.

I can't wait.
Report impossible123 February 21, 2019 9:15 PM GMT
It's a discussion board for horse racing thus all opinions are welcome, and accepted as genuine and sincere and nothing personal.

I hope once again I'll have my two principal runners battling it out at the last fence similar to last year; the reigning champion vs the young pretender and King George winner. And this time I may do a rfc.
Report irishone February 22, 2019 7:33 PM GMT
Yes but a lot of what you come out with cannot be genuine because if you knew the trainers involved there's no way you could reach your conclusions.so in that sense your opinions are not genuine in any way whatsoever.
Report Tiger Tiger February 22, 2019 8:20 PM GMT
I agree with muse here, Clan des Obeaux for me, at 7 years of age there is still more to come from him and the way he won the Denman, albeit against horses he should have beaten suggests there may well be more to come from him, backed him a few weeks ago at 10/1 each way and I'm quite happy to sit on that.
Report buddeliea February 22, 2019 8:22 PM GMT
What a load of tosh.

So because one does not know a trainer he cannot have a genuine opinion??!!
An opinion can be wrong.....obviously,dont mean it aint genuinely meant.
Report Tiger Tiger February 22, 2019 8:31 PM GMT
I agree with buddeliea. Everyone is entitled to their opinion.
Report impossible123 February 22, 2019 9:50 PM GMT
Past experiences tell me to stick with what I know, what works and what brings me reward which in this "game" are form lines, potential and  and prep eg running in the best and relevant trials; horse racing is only a game. As such do not over complicate matters - either a horse wins or it does not.

Last season I'd big bets for Might Bite (MB) going into the King George (5/1) and Gold Cup (8/1) after he won the RSA. Nevertheless, the emergence of Native River as a strong contender - NR won some good races prior to running 3rd at 7/2 to Sizing John on good going - and the none-to-convincing win of MB in the KG forced me to I rejig my bets and include NR - he was only 7/2 against Sizing John on good going the previous year - but unloved here at 16/1 (I only got 10/1 and 8/1). And the rest is history.

I hope the emerging horse this season CDO can emulate NR next month at the same Festival.
Report sageform February 23, 2019 10:06 AM GMT
Very frightened of CDO now but I have Native River as my ante post bet and still think he is the one to beat. Tizzard is in very good form recently and the King George is not his race. I also think that Thistlecrack is still right in the mix.
Report Hibore February 23, 2019 5:42 PM GMT
I’m of the same opinion Sage. I still need to see CDO run to the same level away from the “park” courses before I believe it.

Thistlecrack and Anibale Fly are the value at the moment.
Report Ming_the_Merciless February 26, 2019 7:16 AM GMT
Watched a preview show yesterday and there are concerns over CDO's jumping to the right. On a left handed track with 22 fences it is expected to cost him 11 lengths minimum. Personally if he does jump right on the day I have noticed that when they get tired it costs them even more than that. All these little corrections become exponential. Not saying he can't win but the minimum winning number has to be OR170 - meaning he will need to run to 181 and more likely 190!  Kauto Star was rated 193 in his prime with Denman a miserly 182. That is the measure of the task for CDO. A visor may help.

ODC current BHA OR is 173.
Report Autocue March 7, 2019 9:58 AM GMT
I think there's some value in Bellshill at 14/1. Solid stayer, jumps well, handles any ground and has been progressing towards this race , his stated target at the start of the season.
Report buddeliea March 7, 2019 12:19 PM GMT
Yep, good price that imo
Report lewisham ranger March 7, 2019 2:00 PM GMT
If I just had to listen to trainers opinions to make my bets I'd probably fall asleep.

struggling through the betfair preview and dull as dishwater. could do with bringing couch back. at least he had opinions.

probably better off watching replays of races than previews tbh.
Report lewisham ranger March 7, 2019 2:03 PM GMT
tbh going off Bellshill a bit. is he really good enough to win a gold cup? finished out with the washing in his supreme, would a gold cup winner really do that? have got an ante-post voucher on him at 12-1 though.
Report buddeliea March 7, 2019 5:24 PM GMT
I done Bellshill and RTR in a special to win at the Dublin Festival and Cheltenham.
Could not work out which one i wanted to win when they were having their ding dong in Dublin.Laugh

Now though i am glad Bellshill won, i think hes a real chance.
Hes improved a lot, and looks to me a horse that will relish the Gold cup conditions.
Report irishone March 7, 2019 6:55 PM GMT
The worry with bellshill is his poor record on the course
Obviously doesnt like either the pace or the fences
Report buddeliea March 7, 2019 7:00 PM GMT
Ruby said he thought he would win the RSA at the top of the hill,so i have no worries with the course now hes clearly a better and stronger horse.
Report lewisham ranger March 7, 2019 7:33 PM GMT
why was he out with the washing in the supreme then? Mischief

not saying a gold cup winner has to win the supreme, but kicking king and war of attrition were both second in the race.

which suggests to me that they both had a much better cruising speed than this horse. maybe that won't matter, but maybe it will.

I prefer kemboy.
Report buddeliea March 7, 2019 8:40 PM GMT
Hes won 2 3m Grade 1 chases,and nearly won an Irish National.
Think thats more relative to winning a Gold Cup than failing in a Supreme Hurdle.
Report impossible123 March 7, 2019 9:52 PM GMT
Bellshill (Wylie) despite winning the Navan and Lawlor Novice Hurdles (both 20f) was sacrificed in the Supreme (16f) so that Long Dog (Ricci) could run in the Albert Bartlett; Yorkhill (Wylie) despite winning the Tolwprth (16f) ran/won the Neptune but could not run in the Supreme (16f) because of Min (Ricci).

Post Supreme and at Aintree Bellshill ran in the Sefton over 24f; he never ran over 16f ever again.
Report lewisham ranger March 7, 2019 10:10 PM GMT
you might be right budd. I'm just trying to play devil's advocate here, too easy to focus on the positive side of the horse, I think as punters we have to be brutal and actually think, why has that horse not got a good record at Cheltenham?

anyway I've backed it and might well back it again. who knows.

starting to fancy the nicholls horse a bit now.
Report cyclops March 9, 2019 9:18 AM GMT
harry callaghan kindly asked me for my thoughts on this race and, for what they're worth, here they are:

There has never been a Gold Cup with so little form to go on. The top 8 in the betting have run just 14 times over fences between them for an astonishing total of just six victories shared between four of them. (Excluding Presenting Percy's hurdles win).

The only races you could really claim to have been "proper" Gold Cup trials were the King George and the Savills Chase, though both of them threw up as many questions as they answered.

Given the profound lack of relevant form, the race becomes more a matter of conjecture than usual. With the betting headed by three second season chasers, the consensus is that the new crop is far superior to the old timers. That argument can't be supported by evidence that Presenting Percy has made the required improvement, but upon Clan Des Obeaux and Kemboy's wins.

The former looked superb in the KG, laughing at Thistlecrack coming to the last, with the others well beaten. But how seriously can we take that race? Two fancied runners departed early, while Might Bite didn't show up and Native River was off the bridle going to the first and was outpaced throughout. Thistlecrack hasn't won a race for 2 years and is now eleven. The style was impressive but the substance questionable and the same can be said of his subsequent win over Terrefort.

Kemboy bolted up on his seasonal return and then again in the Savills Chase. That race has been questioned, due to the slow pace and the excellent, opportunistic, ride given to the winner. I don't see it that way. Kemboy has now won four in a row, all very comfortably. Although there were excuses for some of those behind him at Leopardstown, the race contained most of the better chasers in Ireland and he simply demolished them. The time was identical to Bellshill's Irish Gold Cup win, despite the latter being on slightly faster ground. Kemboy sprinted away from the last, showing an excellent turn of foot to go with proven stamina (he won over 3m on heavy at the start of his winning streak). It would not bother me if Walsh elects to ride another Mullins horse, as he has only ever ridden Kemboy once and Townsend and David Mullins both know him well. My concern would be twofold; he can be keen, though that has never led to him finishing weakly to date, and his jumping can leave a bit to be desired. While athletic, he can get close to fences and that could be costly. His run in last year's JLT was compromised by a few poor jumps but I'm hoping more experience will have helped in that respect. I don't know why he's drifted from 8 to 11 since his last race but he is carrying my money.

Much has been said and written about Presenting Percy. All I can add is that this cannot have been the plan. Something must have happened to make him miss those races  -  I don't buy the ground argument - and I can't support him at current odds, although I'm a long way from dismissing his chances and was expecting all season for him to be my selection. But we just don't know if he's improved, he's had no relevant match practice and there must be a suspicion that all has not been well at some stage.

Native River is game and honest but has had a serious attack of the slows this season and seems to be losing what pace he had. Of course, if the race is run on similar going to last year, he has a chance - though none in my view if it isn't - but even then I feel sure that one of the new challengers will be too classy.

Bellshill ticks most of the boxes and must go close. But is he quite good enough? I have to say that just edging out Road to Respect, when the latter almost stopped at several fences in the back straight, doesn't strike me as being good enough to win a Gold Cup.

If Might Bite wins, I would be delighted - I really like him - but astonished. To come back from where he's been this season, on ground that will almost certainly be on the slow side, would be astonishing.

I can't have Thistlecrack, though he always seems to defy some sketchy jumping and plug on, and don't really fancy any of the outsiders, although Bristol de Mai has looked overpriced for a long time. I've never worked out the T-D operation and never will, but his best form is better than almost everything in the field.
Report lewisham ranger March 9, 2019 2:15 PM GMT
agree with all of that cylcops

think kemboy massively underestimated. the only thing that puts me off is that his sire doesn't have a great record with his horses with winning over 3 miles or more, but this one has won over 3 miles, and on heavy ground as well. Don't think he'll fail for lack of stamina.

tizzard form must be worrying for backers of his horses in this race.
Report sixtwosix March 9, 2019 3:32 PM GMT
Al Boum Photo - Remembered more for the bizarre performance at Punchestown than anything.
Anibale Fly - placed in the GN and Gold Cup , satisfactory run behind Monalee last time.
Balko Des Flos - Done nothing since Ryanair win .
Bellshill - Ran a mighty race giving 19 pounds to Irish Grand National winner until veering all over the place at the last.
Bristol De Mai - Two superstar performances at Haydock ,  no show in the Gold Cup last year.
Clan Des Obeaux - Massive improver and bridle traveller , needs to prove he is no One Man on the climb for home.
Definitly Red - Solid performer but only 6th last year and beating by Captain Redbeard last time.
Double Shuffle - King George runner up outsider  for this.
Elegant Escape - Welsh GN winner stayed in behind Frodon , needs the rain to bring him into it.
Frodon - Will he try in the softened ground , doubt it.
Invitation Only - Big weight win in Thystes at first trip over 3 miles.
Kemboy - 4 winners out of 4 since falling at the first in the Irish Grand National
Might Bite - Looked the 3 mile King in waiting but wheels fell off in last 2 runs .
Monalee - Runner up to PP in the RSA , good win over 20 furlong last time.
Native River - The forecast weather will help both Welsh Grand National winners from the same stable, goes off favourite on the day imo.
Presenting Percy - Trying to match Easter Hero , travels well ,but could not beat Our Duke in only test outside Novice chase.
Road To Respect - Never out of first four in chase career , 4th last year.
Shattered Love - Poor run last time and distance will test her.
Thistlecrack - Probably the most popular winner , if his jumping stands up .
Yala Enki ----mmmmmmm

I am on Kemboy , Bellshill , Clan Des Obeaux , Al Boum Photo , Anibale Fly , Thistlecrack and Bristol De Mai at prices between 27 & 60's ......so you can cross them off .Cool
Report Autocue March 9, 2019 7:39 PM GMT
The more I'm thinking about it the more sweet I am on Bellshill as a value EW bet. On soft ground I would have backed Native River but Tizzard doesn't have the same wind in his sails this season and for me Bellshill is the improver this year. I've always been prejudiced against the horse but rightly or wrongly I feel there is momentum behind his chance this year.
Report impossible123 March 9, 2019 9:06 PM GMT
Sorry, Bellshill - the improver? How have you arrived at that conclusion? He just beat Djakadam (was regressing) last season when Walsh could have ridden a better judged race on the latter; finished behind Kemboy and RTR in the Savills when RTR had a rough passage; just beat RTR in the Irish Gold Cup when RTR had to make the running and repeatedly made mistakes in his jumping.

The form of RTR is not Gold Cup standard (176/178), and I think the form of Bellshill is still several rungs below Gold Cup standard too.
Report Meat Loaf March 9, 2019 9:17 PM GMT
Invitation Only...2 runs at 3 miles

First run at 3 miles....the crazy novice chase at Punchestown again (the one where Al Boum Photo ran out.....Monalee wiped Invitation Only out)...it was staying on to win imo.

Second run at 3m1f Thyestes Handicap chase wins cosily.
Report Steamship March 9, 2019 9:36 PM GMT
I backed Invitation Only at 40/1 a few weeks ago. I think he has a great chance
Report marychain1 March 9, 2019 9:40 PM GMT
I think this is ripe for a big shock. I don't really respect any of the big three, or even five, in the market, although I have had a nibble at Clan Des Obeaux. Invitation Only and Elegant Escape are the two I'm leaning towards at the prices and potential going. I also wouldn't write off Shattered Love.
Report Autocue March 10, 2019 9:37 AM GMT
"Sorry, Bellshill - the improver? How have you arrived at that conclusion?"

Last year Mullins ran him in a grade 3 in February then a handicap. This year he won the Irish Gold Cup and is targeted for the Gold Cup. It's not rocket science.
Report johnslad March 10, 2019 9:47 AM GMT
you think that is only flaw in his post, 176/8 Gold Cup standard it may be but doubt if it will be achieved on Friday and certainly not by last years winner.
Report buddeliea March 10, 2019 10:24 AM GMT
Last year Mullins ran him in a grade 3 in February then a handicap. This year he won the Irish Gold Cup and is targeted for the Gold Cup. It's not rocket science.

Exactly.

big thing when looking at the Gold Cup.....for me anyway......being the best horse does not mean he/she will win,the winner will be the one that handles the conditions on the day,jumps travels and very important.....stays really well.As happened last year,
So for me Native River and Bellshill stick out.
Report Hibore March 10, 2019 1:11 PM GMT
Agree Bud. Native ran to 178 in last year’s race (backed by placed horses and incredible time). Can’t have Percy running better than his RSA which is well short of required to win even an average Gold Cup.
Report duffy March 10, 2019 2:05 PM GMT
It's not mentioned too much but when weighing up Percy I wouldn't bother wrestling too much with the ins and outs of his two previous festival strolls, I'd much more look at his hack canter demolition job in the handicap against seasoned chasers as a novice on his 3rd ever start, that's a really big clue to just how deadly this horse is IMO.Devil

As for the prospect of this race turning into a "real" test with the prevailing conditions likely to suit NR, well, Percy will be lapping this up too IMO, but he'll move through the race looking anything like a horse running in a slog fest IMO, he's an out and out stayer too but doesn't move through his races like a stereotypical one, he's much classier.
Report irishone March 10, 2019 2:14 PM GMT
Hope you are right duffy
Left just over 1g in at this stage
Will lay a monkey more if it drifts
Flight and hotel paid for
Just the lap dancing and lager to go
Report buddeliea March 10, 2019 3:48 PM GMT
Well PP may turn out to simply be the best horse on the day,if so not much anyone can do about that.
If he were a more realistic price i may take a chance he is,but i cannot do that at his cramped odds,i would much rather part with my cash on proven ones at the top level.
Last years winner and Bellshill fit my criteria very well.
Report lewisham ranger March 10, 2019 4:01 PM GMT
hard to know which one of mullins is the best. Bellshill, kemboy, al boum photo, they all seem about the same. have feeling one of them will win but which one? Confused
Report penzance March 10, 2019 4:07 PM GMT
Kemboy.
Report buddeliea March 10, 2019 4:08 PM GMT
Well strictly on form,Kemboy comes out best with his Savills performance in which he beat Bellshill well.

I think Bellshill is improving and will reverse that in a race that i feel will suit his strengths.
Report sixtwosix March 10, 2019 4:18 PM GMT
All of the Mullins horses like viable contenders imo.
If I had to pick one it would be Bellshill , looks very strong now and reminds me of horses like Burrough Hill Lad .
Report buddeliea March 10, 2019 4:41 PM GMT
Invitation only worth a dabble at the odds imo
Think the extra distance will suit him,not so sure it will suit Alboum photo.
Report The Sawyer March 10, 2019 5:59 PM GMT
626

BHL won the Welsh National prior to the Gold Cup and then went on to carry 12st and give a serious beating to the Hennessey field with the RSA winner in 2nd getting 21lbs.

I don't think there's anything in this years line up that is likely to do that.
Report penzance March 10, 2019 6:44 PM GMT
with clear rounds I don't see how Belshill
can turn the Kemboy form around.
Report buddeliea March 11, 2019 4:51 AM GMT
I understand you saying that Penzance,i just feel that the Gold Cup will suit a horse like Bellshill better than Kemboy,the extra distance and the toughness of the race and the feeling i have that Bellshill has strengthened and improved a lot since last season,and steadily improved this season,and looks to me like a horse trained specifically to peak this week.
Report FOYLESWAR March 11, 2019 6:51 AM GMT
they went very slow in kemboys race ,david mullins said ("they went slow ,even when i took it up we still went slow ,no one took me on ). not saying he will or wont win or  if  will confirm the form with belshill or not but it should be a totally different scenario on thursday .
Report irishone March 11, 2019 8:12 AM GMT
Lewisham
That could well be a major criticism of willie mullins this year
He did it time after time at the galway festival last summer
He genuinely dod not know what was his best chance out of 2\3\4
Runners in a race.
.....and the times his fav got beat .....
You have been warned !
Report lewisham ranger March 11, 2019 9:47 AM GMT
the only thing that sticks in my mind as a negative with kemboy is that it seemed to me he came up the hill rather weakly last year in the JLT

maybe he's improved since then but a future gold cup winner would surely have been bounding up the hill? Confused

al boum photo is nagging at me as well.

as for Bellshill, can see the arguments for him as well. in fact he's the only one of the mullins lot I've backed so far. thought he put in a great leap down the far side in his latest race against road to respect.
Report lewisham ranger March 11, 2019 9:48 AM GMT
irishone yes that's the impression I get as well. it's also the same with Gordon eliot, a lot of the races at Cheltenham he has several runners and we have no idea which one is the best, I doubt he knows either.
Report cyclops March 11, 2019 10:38 AM GMT
lewisham, in that case you'd also have to question Clan Des Obeaux.

Some horses progress remarkably from their first season chasing - Don Cossack would be the obvious recent example and both Kemboy and Clan seem to have done so (as has Cyrname).

It's been interesting that neither of three novice chase winners from last season's festival - Footpad, Presenting Percy and Shattered Love - have yet won a race over fences this season.

FOYLESWAR, I think the slowness of Kemboy's race has been exaggerated - the same time as Bellshill's C&D win on slightly quicker ground the following month. And a steady pace makes it more remarkable that he could sprint away from them at the end.
Report FOYLESWAR March 11, 2019 3:48 PM GMT
TOTALLY DIFFERNT SCENARIO ON FRIDAY ...........
Report lewisham ranger March 11, 2019 4:41 PM GMT
I hope you're right cyclops- would like to see kemboy win, and mullins win in general- only because I feel this would be a glaring omission on his C.V.
Report lewisham ranger March 11, 2019 4:49 PM GMT
btw what do you think of al boum photo mate?
Report lewisham ranger March 11, 2019 9:27 PM GMT
thing is with Kelly he will either look a genius or get slagged off for not running percy over fences.

reminds me a bit of best mates prep, wrapping him up in cotton wool.
Report lewisham ranger March 11, 2019 9:56 PM GMT
must admit the more I look at mullins three runners in this, the more kemboy strikes me as the only one who can win

if you look at the savills race Bellshill made some sort of move in the straight but wasn't really gaining on the leaders at the line.

al boum photo ran a decent race in the RSA but made a few mistakes and when he fell he was clearly held. unless he's improved a lot he's not going to be good enough.

kemboy is the one who's improved imo.
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! March 11, 2019 10:01 PM GMT
Ruby to ride Photo if ground
SOFT
Wink
Report lewisham ranger March 12, 2019 2:30 PM GMT
surely no one will be brave enough to bet against mullins breaking his gold cup drought? Mischief
Report penzance March 13, 2019 8:57 PM GMT
Belshill all blue on oddschecker.
8s with 2 books.
Report penzance March 13, 2019 8:59 PM GMT
Kemboy powered away from them.
No one was making any late gains
on him either to my eyes.
Report impossible123 March 13, 2019 9:29 PM GMT
I think it's the Walsh's effect - he's chosen him; the Exchange prices - apart from PP - are out of kilter with the high street bookies.
Report johnslad March 14, 2019 8:35 AM GMT
TIZZARD'S are flying at the moment
Report impossible123 March 14, 2019 11:23 PM GMT
Will NR retain his crown? Will it be a day of reckoning or jubilation for CDO and/or PP? A clean and sound race for all, I hope.
Report FOYLESWAR March 15, 2019 7:52 AM GMT
its not just about the 3 at the head of the market imp! there are plenty with a chance .
Report FOYLESWAR March 15, 2019 8:02 AM GMT
gonna be a true stamina test ,native river gotta pour it on and bris de mai likes to be in the van  whatever wins gonna need to stay every yard .
Report impossible123 March 15, 2019 10:25 AM GMT
Native River is friendless (8.4 and still drifting) similarly Presenting Percy (slight drift) both possibly due to the drying ground. But, money for Clan Des Obeaux (5.6 from 7), and he'd start fav.
Report sixtwosix March 15, 2019 10:26 AM GMT
My thoughts on the day :
Bellshill is my choice as the most likely winner ,he looks tailor made for the battle up the hill.
Clan Des Obeaux , poor record at the track , don't see him finishing well.
Native River , thrown at ever fence last year and got away with it , don't see this happening again.
Kemboy , don't see him staying.
Thistlecrack , too old now.
Invitation Only ,could place like Djakkadam who came from the Thyestes
Presenting Percy , the word genius will be banded about if he wins , don't think he will.
Double Shuffle - will not stay.
Yala Enki - will stay and finish out the rear
Al Boum Photo - reminds me of Total Recall , not a good enough jumper.
Shattered Love - not good enough
Definitly Red - under the radar this year , if it is a slog he is the outsider for me
Elegant Escape  - Run in the right handicaps this year .
Might Bite - Can't see how a slog in soft ground will suit him as he has emptied the last two runs.
Bristol De Mai - Trainer interview will be great if it wins this .
Anibale Fly - Light prep for this at Aintree, worst outsiders.

1 Bellshill
2 Definitly Red
3 Invitation Only
4 Elegant Escape
5 Anibale Fly

2pts win Bellshill    10/1
2pt e/w Definitly Red 50/1


Ante post bets to win
Anibale Fly    60/1
Kemboy    55/1
Al Boum Photo    36/1
Bellshill    27/1
Shattered Love    32/1
Bristol De Mai    60/1
Clan Des Obeaux    29/1
Thistlecrack      34/1

Good luck to all with their punts.
Report impossible123 March 15, 2019 10:35 AM GMT
I'm puzzled as to why so many commentators and professional pundits think this is an open Gold Cup. Is it?
Report sageform March 15, 2019 12:33 PM GMT
At least six of them would tempt me but so far I am on Native River ante post, Clan des O. today and Thistlecrack place only. In addition to those I would give a chance to Might Bite as the ground is less testing than last year when he looked long odds on at the second last, Bristol de Mai who is such an enigma that he could finish anywhere and that is without any of 5 Irish possibles. The ones I can't quite see are Elegant Escape, Definitely Red, Double Shuffle or Yala Enki.
Report FOYLESWAR March 15, 2019 12:54 PM GMT
is it ? look at the betting if you can see past the front 3
Report FOYLESWAR March 15, 2019 3:07 PM GMT
my 3 are elegant escape ,invitation only and shattered love ..................good luck all !
Report impossible123 March 15, 2019 3:12 PM GMT
If I do not win I hope some of you do. Good luck! And I hope every runner returns safe and sound - that's the main objective.

Post this race, an anti-climax for the NH season (Aintree and Punchestown no comparison) very similar to post King George until this week. But no worries, the Guineas Trials will be upon us soon.
Report FOYLESWAR March 15, 2019 3:38 PM GMT
well done winners great race
Report johnslad March 15, 2019 3:57 PM GMT
Yes was alas my bet never got further than 1st and 2nd PP not good enuf £100 ew and £100 win but still up a monkey but better year's when been more conservative when I'm front but thought have a go also had £50 ew invitation but there you go roll on Bun Doran
Report impossible123 March 15, 2019 5:16 PM GMT
Well done backers, and long overdue for Townend and Mullins. CDO and NR ran their hearts out...just not good enough on the day for differing reasons, I believe - another day for them, I'm sure.
Report sixtwosix March 15, 2019 8:19 PM GMT
Only just watched the race (other than the GN I don't watch any racing live)

The main point I have is the very poor quality of jumping.
Only Bristol De Mai really travelled and jumped.
The winner travelled well but did not clear all the fences well.
Presenting Percy was never going and was always stuck behind a horse.
Invitation Only and Bellshill jumping was very poor.
As expected Might Bite did not finish well and Clan Des Obeaux does not come up the hill.
Anibale Fly placed in 2 Gold Cups and a GN finished very strongly and will be one of the 3 favs with Rathvinden and Tiger Roll.
The mare and Elegant Escape ran well to the straight.

Final thought:
The way Al Boum Photo was jumping ,I have a feeling he may have been very fortunate the 3rd last was not jumped.
Report lewisham ranger March 16, 2019 1:22 PM GMT
annoyed got sucked in by this bellend horse.

knew that he wasn't anything much around Cheltenham. the supreme novices run was a big clue, a future gold cup winner doesn't finish closer last than first in that race no matter what self-appointed forum guru buddleia might say. should have read more into the Cheltenham form, al boum showed up well in that race last year.

in future festivals will be looking at Cheltenham form much more because of this. should have backed al boum photo anyway, said a mullins horse would win just didn't follow my instinct.
Report sageform March 16, 2019 2:46 PM GMT
A general observation. The majority of the GC horses had only run once or twice this season including the first 4 home. So don't expect much form to go on in 12 months timeSad It may well just be a coincidence but trainers will take it as an endorsement of the light preparation. I actually think that Native River might have been a bit closer with a prep run but it didn't seem to help Clan des Obeaux.
Report buddeliea March 16, 2019 4:32 PM GMT
LaughLaugh
Report buddeliea March 16, 2019 4:33 PM GMT
At LR Laugh
Report irishone March 16, 2019 4:35 PM GMT
Self appointed forum guru


LaughLaugh
Report buddeliea March 16, 2019 7:51 PM GMT
Whilst it is upsetting that LR does not agree with me re Bellshill I do take comfort in the fact that Ruby Walsh did.
Report buddeliea March 16, 2019 7:53 PM GMT
Bit of advice LR,go with your own judgement and not some self apolnted Guru such as myself.
Report johnslad March 16, 2019 9:05 PM GMT
Well he would be in the poorhouse
Report lewisham ranger March 16, 2019 11:17 PM GMT
that's true, I would be in the poorhouse, but then so would over 90 percent of punters.

was only playing with you budd mate, you're one of the good guys on here.

although tbf I think your enthusiasm re Bellshill rather lead me astray this time Crazy
Report duffy March 17, 2019 12:03 AM GMT
ABP must be a really good winner of the race IMO, despite jumping less than fluent at any number of fences including a momentum stopper at the 2nd last he had still been at that point pretty much on the bridle and immediately picked up again after that, whether or not other horses had run their race or not or whether they are simply not that good, it takes a lot of doing to win the race the way he did.
Report buddeliea March 17, 2019 6:58 AM GMT
cheers LR,and sorry for my part in helping you lose money!! To be honest i did not think my opinion would make much difference.i hope your bet on him was not too heavy.
I genuinely thought his two Grade 1 victories over 3m plus his run in the Irish National gave him a real chance of running a big race,and the jockey choosing to ride him gave me even more confidence.
As it happened the jockey chose wrong and i was wrong.
Dont help when you clout a fence early!!!
Report buddeliea March 17, 2019 7:05 AM GMT
As for ABP,he travelled so well and looked the winner some way out to me.
Hes improved massively from last year,which obviously does happen more with some than others.
The money came for him on the day,so their was confidence behind him.

Personally,he was one i thought could not win,BDM was another,and they were probably the best horses travelling during the race.
I did take note of the money and had a saver on ABP,but only because of the money,and not my judgement.
I have to say......i got the race completely wrong.
Report johnslad March 17, 2019 9:18 AM GMT
Don't think Walsh had a choice btwn 4 only 2 Townend was always on ABF and supreme probably wanted David on Kemboy
Report buddeliea March 17, 2019 9:46 AM GMT
Is that so? sorry i was not aware of that.
Report irishone March 17, 2019 9:51 AM GMT
Dirty scummy aftertiming from the self appointed forum guru
Report buddeliea March 17, 2019 10:00 AM GMT
Laugh i accept that.

I did admit though that it was not my judgement.....more a case of following the money in a desperate attempt to salvage something from my antepost attempts!!
Report sixtwosix March 17, 2019 11:51 AM GMT
ABP won't get away with jumping style in a Gold Cup again , this was his day .
Report impossible123 March 17, 2019 8:29 PM GMT
What's the next race for ABP? Punchestown? If so, I think there will be quite a few from the Gold Cup field taking him on again, possibly Native River (with blinkers) too, Kemboy and Bellshill.
Report johnslad March 17, 2019 8:52 PM GMT
Away and buy a few Easter eggs
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