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Cheltenham Festival

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GoldCupWinner
11 Mar 18 20:15
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Date Joined: 16 Jun 11
| Topic/replies: 3,390 | Blogger: GoldCupWinner's blog
I think Shantou Flyer is a solid place bet in this race. Seems to run very consistently at Cheltenham and the soft ground is also in his favour. James Bowen takes off 3lb which effectively puts him back on his last winning mark. Also tends to be staying on over 2m 5f and I am hopeful the further distance can bring about improvement. He has won over 3m here in the past staying on at the end, albeit that was on good ground. I once read that you need 10lb in hand to win this race and whilst I don't think he will improve that much I do think he is a very solid bet to place.

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Replies: 31
By:
lordnoise
When: 11 Mar 18 21:25
Agree big time but Coo Star holds all the Aces. Like Casse Tete at a big price too ...
By:
Hibore
When: 11 Mar 18 21:45
I’m very sweet on Vintage Clouds in this race especially with the forecast soft/heavy ground. It’s a race always run at a very fast pace and in recent years being able to travel and jump we’ll have been at a premium. However, I can see this race become an extreme stamina test with many of the field crying enough before they come to the straight. You would at first thought think that the 4 miler would be the race for this strong staying chaser but his run last year in this race when falling 2 out really caught my eye on the reruns. He’s a much more professional horse this year and improved with his racing. His run in the Welsh GN and 2nd to Ballyoptic are strong pieces of form on very soft ground and near the bottom of the weights on Tuesday he is still probably value at 12/1. He also has the assistance of the excellent Danny Cook who I’m sure is looking forward to riding a positive near the front ride.
By:
p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y
When: 11 Mar 18 21:47
Had backed Gold Present early on at 10s but the ground for him now ??

Took some 28 on here yesterday on Vintage Clouds as well with how the ground is likely to ride
By:
FATTIEWHITEYSLOVEADRINK
When: 11 Mar 18 22:00
Heno took gold out
Twice this year
On bad ground issues
Could @@@@ his national bid
Running him on heavy ground can’t see him running
By:
Deptford
When: 11 Mar 18 22:01
PWise will tip Vintage
By:
Jb23
When: 11 Mar 18 22:12
Agree with Hibore on all of that. I have a very very basic model spreadsheet for all of the handicaps at Cheltenham based off the last 11 years and the 2 it has thrown up are Vintage Clouds and Coo Star Sivola.

Average Age - 8.08   
Average SP -14.38   
Average OR - 141.78   
Average Weight 10-13/11-0   
72%    have won this season
67% have won or placed at Cheltenham

Probably all completely redundant information, but half the fun for me. I always do a tricast of the three by model likes the most and those 3 are: Coo Star, Vintage Clouds & Beware the Bear.


Good luck all :)
By:
Deptford
When: 11 Mar 18 22:15
Gutted about the rain, fancied Gold for ages
By:
convict99
When: 11 Mar 18 23:21
same here...all over gold present but rain might of killed his chances...thought beware the bear could run a nice race at the prices but the jockey has me terrified
By:
unclepuncle
When: 11 Mar 18 23:34
For the sake of having a bet I’ve gone for Cogry @ 25/1 - course and going no problem, just hope he gets a decent early position and gets into a nice rhythm.
By:
leoptown
When: 12 Mar 18 00:02
Best chance of an English winner
By:
deepingfox
When: 12 Mar 18 00:05
Uncle, agreed, really keen on COGRY, low weight, 3lb claimer (one win from losing claim), loves soft ground, won last two trips to Chelters.
By:
marychain1
When: 12 Mar 18 00:12
Really couldn't find a bet I really liked for this and spent ages on it. Shantou Flyer and Vincente the two I'm likeliest to come down on at this stage.
By:
Gordon63
When: 12 Mar 18 08:48
was on mossback at 33s but now runs in NH chase - so switched to vintage clouds, may even do forecast with stablemate wakanda
By:
dunlaying
When: 12 Mar 18 10:55
Eamon An Cnoic e/w
Coo Star Sivola win
By:
Autocue
When: 12 Mar 18 20:13
Shantou Flyer for me as well. Looks like this was the target.
By:
Deptford
When: 12 Mar 18 20:28
I reckon he will scratch Gold Present
By:
p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y
When: 12 Mar 18 20:31
I thought he would too Deptford but surely he'd have done it by now?

Reading what Nicky is saying it seems he is happy to run him and thinks there is a strip of fresh ground on the rail that's not that bad and will want Nico to be going along that.
By:
Deptford
When: 12 Mar 18 20:33
I just cant see him in that ground with that weight
By:
Deptford
When: 12 Mar 18 20:34
Anyway, I am about to open a bottle of Champers and have some M n S Apricot Swiss Roll, good luck mate
By:
p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y
When: 12 Mar 18 20:36
Aye good luck and enjoy the week
By:
pmt
When: 12 Mar 18 23:03
lord noise , my friend owns casse tete . You are a shrewdie. We do fancy him and he is in great shape.
By:
ACStafford
When: 13 Mar 18 00:34
Will he get the trip?
By:
nocturnal
When: 13 Mar 18 01:16
Very interesting entry,on the back of a fine performance LTO.

Starting him off over 3m last january suggests they see him as a staying chaser,presumably that knocked his confidence when taking heavy fall.

39/42 winners have been aged 7-10,that is the big negative being 6 yr old.

Whatever happens tomorrow,fine prospect in capable hands,one I will be following.

Best of luck with him PMT......lets hope they ALL come home safely.
By:
SOULDANCER
When: 13 Mar 18 07:25
GOLD PRESENT by 20 lengths.
By:
pmt
When: 13 Mar 18 08:06
yes he won by 10 at auteuil on his first chase start on bottomless ground. Has a high action and needs plenty of cut. its his 9th chase start so i wouldnt worry about the age stat, not many 6 year olds run in this. Owner only has one other horse; Baron alco, who only got beat by a Gold Cup horse in the Brown and n=Merribell last year.
By:
FATTIEWHITEYSLOVEADRINK
When: 13 Mar 18 08:56
If he loves the bog so much
Why he been pulled out of other
Engagements I don’t get it how he’s in line up
National on his mind
More bull **** from this yard
Huge fan of this horse drove people potty
All summer about him
By:
nocturnal
When: 13 Mar 18 10:48
Thanks PMT

Everything looks in his favour today,what a thrill taking a decent one there with a live chance.

Live about a mile from his old stable on the hill.

Hope he does you proud.....GL
By:
flux
When: 13 Mar 18 10:52
Ramses De Teillee for me E/W - He'll love the ground, sound jumper too. I guess the big field is a question mark for him but not exposed.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 13 Mar 18 14:28
another vote for Vintage Clouds ew, missed the 12s but still think 9s is a fair price

also Knight Of Noir ew 33/1 - great profile for the race, bit worried about the ground for him but will chance that at the price...
By:
unclepuncle
When: 13 Mar 18 16:12
Unlucky on Shantou Flyer - poor jumps at the last two whereas Coo Star was brilliant at both.

Delighted for Lizzie and Nick, just hope they can repeat it in the Fred Winter.
By:
Jb23
When: 14 Mar 18 10:55

Mar 11, 2018 -- 4:12PM, Jb23 wrote:


Agree with Hibore on all of that. I have a very very basic model spreadsheet for all of the handicaps at Cheltenham based off the last 11 years and the 2 it has thrown up are Vintage Clouds and Coo Star Sivola. Average Age - 8.08    Average SP -14.38    Average OR - 141.78    Average Weight 10-13/11-0    72%    have won this season67% have won or placed at CheltenhamProbably all completely redundant information, but half the fun for me. I always do a tricast of the three by model likes the most and those 3 are: Coo Star, Vintage Clouds & Beware the Bear. Good luck all :)


1,3,4.

One day I will get the tricast up. One day

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