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Cheltenham Festival

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maelduin
09 Jan 18 15:19
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Date Joined: 23 Oct 05
| Topic/replies: 728 | Blogger: maelduin's blog
Thought i might start this one off myself now that NRNB is in full swing.

B365 - Gwencily Berbas @ 33/1 (1/4 odds first 4) 2m4f Novice Handicap Chase

Same combination that plotted Tully East in the Grand Annual last year. Has been running over 2m but all his decent form is over further. Decent hurdler and 2nd to Our Duke over 2m4f. Would prefer soft ground but i'm willing to take a chance at the prices. GL

Another one was Squouateur but not backable at current prices.

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Replies: 137
By:
easygold
When: 09 Jan 18 16:53
Hi Maelduin, it was the Close Brothers event last year, if you check out this thread last year you might see somebody landed on this fellow by luckExcitedCool
By:
easygold
When: 09 Jan 18 17:00
Gwencily Berbas..... is more than likely going to need help by the BHA to get in
By:
simdog84
When: 09 Jan 18 17:08
Tycoon Prince if given anything around 140 for the Close brothers or the Brown Advisory
By:
easygold
When: 09 Jan 18 17:26
Hi Simdog, my guess he will be too high in the ratings for the race.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 09 Jan 18 18:10
Agree totally about Squouateur, but the price really is poor.

I thought Demi Sang looked an ideal type for the Novice Handicap on Day One. Nice performance on Sunday as he looke dunlilely to get up approaching the last but won comfortably in the end and I don't think Avenir d'Une Vie was really stopping.

Willie mentioned the Arkle post race, but will wait and see.

Think Movewiththetimes is being plotted for a handicap too.
By:
maelduin
When: 09 Jan 18 18:21
You're right easygold. My fault. Nice call.

Gwencily Berbas is currently rated 134 in Ireland so you might as well out put him up to 139 - 140 when he goes across the pond. Will definitely be a close call either way. GL
By:
cufcno1
When: 09 Jan 18 20:13
Mate of mine convinced movewithetimes being aimed at the novice chase on the Tuesday 2 mile 4
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 09 Jan 18 21:16
Me too cufc! Already backed him for it.
By:
BigField
When: 10 Jan 18 15:02
Le Breuil for me, the ground has been too soft for him this season so far to win a big handicap but the horse certainly has it in him, I reckon Pauling will be targeting one of the Festival handicaps
By:
Desmond Orchard
When: 10 Jan 18 17:36
The hardest part about the Novices 'cap on the Tuesday is getting into it. I think 3lb covered the field last year, so trainers need to be very clever about their charges campaigns.
For that reason its a NRNB race only.
I like to have a go at the 3 miler on the Tuesday as these horses don't have too many other options to muddy the water, and my pin has come down on Go Conquer. Jonjo is in the doldrums at the moment, but always seems to come good for the Festival. This one ran well in the race last year and has had a decent start to this campaign. Good ground is a bonus for this fella. Rated 151, he's about the right sort of mark to win a race like this. 20/1 NRNB or 25/1 without the insurance.
I'd quite fancy Gold Present as he seems to have all the right credentials for the race but his mark of 155 could easily see him humping 11-12, which despite UTPT's performance last year is never ideal. I also suspect that he's better with a bit of give, which is by no means guaranteed. At the prices he doesn't make much appeal right now.
Singlefarmpayment always goes off favourite, wherever he runs, for some reason, as he seems to never get his head in front. But all the near misses have seen his mark steadily rise and I wonder now if he's in the grip. Readily opposed at around 10/1.
By:
Quevega06
When: 14 Jan 18 10:08
I bet Tully East last year and I think he's another good bet for the Browns this year. Hated the Cheltenham ground LTO and sitting nicely rated on 144,with horses finishing behind him at last year's festival all running constantly and rated above him Tully East is still well handicapped.
By:
BigField
When: 14 Jan 18 20:07
With regards to Le Breuil, think it'd have a superb chance in the Martin Pipe, the horse has a current mark of 139 so would get in, I reckon they'll keep the horse away until then.
If this is the case (and I have no inside info to go with this, just the horse wants decent ground and imo is very well handicapped) then I'll be lumping on
By:
DontBeSakhee
When: 14 Jan 18 20:11
Bigfield - I hope not as I've backed Le Breuil for the Coral Cup at 33 AP and 20 NRNB. Lol.
By:
BigField
When: 14 Jan 18 20:14
Would it usually get in the Coral Cup off its mark of 139? It'd have just as good a chance in that one I'd imagine, just know it'd definitely get in the Martin Pipe that's why I mentioned that race
By:
BigField
When: 14 Jan 18 20:16
I'd be all over 33s but would rather just take 50s on here or bigger at win only, don't think they have the coral cup or martin pipe on here yet though do they?
By:
DontBeSakhee
When: 14 Jan 18 20:30
Coral Cup is available on here BF, but Me Breuil is second fav on the exchanges.

Hadn't really considered the 139 getting in, but having checked last year's field Robinshill ran off 139, Scoir Mear 138 and Bravissimo and Sure Reef both 136. It would be touch and go.

I suppose the other way of looking at it is; top of the weights in the MP, bottom in the Coral Cup.
By:
BigField
When: 14 Jan 18 20:32
Ah fair enough, with Sure Reef getting on off 136 I'd be happy to take the gamble on Le Breuil getting in, will wait til payday to back the horse as I have an expensive week coming up lol
By:
DontBeSakhee
When: 14 Jan 18 20:37
January is never cheap! Be lucky and however expensive it is, save a few pounds for Cheltenham Laugh
By:
BigField
When: 14 Jan 18 20:38
Cheers mate you too, not to worry there's 2 paydays before Cheltenham so all is well :D
By:
SOULDANCER
When: 18 Jan 18 08:13
GOLD PRESENT, Ultima h'cap chase 16-1...10-1 nrnb, strongly fancy this improver, top weight, hoping James Bowen gets the ride.
BEN DUNDEE, Martin Pipe h'cap hurdle 20-1...14-1 nrnb, taking a chance this is the one for Gordon Elliot. He made no secret that he wanted to win this and duly did last year. Though he had 3 runners in it the 12-1 winner a 9-1 and 20-1 so god knows if this is value.
By:
BigField
When: 18 Jan 18 14:45
Le Breuil entered at both Aintree and Haydock this weekend, hoping it doesn't run!
By:
BigField
When: 18 Jan 18 15:06
Sorry make that Ascot and Haydock, not Aintree.
By:
DontBeSakhee
When: 18 Jan 18 21:11
Entered at Fontwell Sunday as well.

Would be staggered if he ran at Haydock. Trainer reckons running him at Aintree on heavy was a mistake.

The Ascot race is a G3 so if he runs and wins that, his mark will jump. Interestingly though the distance for that race is 2m3f.
By:
BigField
When: 19 Jan 18 08:05
I agree, can't see it running at Haydock especially over the 2m7f trip, wonder what the ground will be like at Ascot, can't see the 2m3f trup being a problem there, fingers crossed he doesn't run! If he does then I hope it's soft going and his mark either remains the same of gets lowered a little
By:
BigField
When: 20 Jan 18 12:33
Le Breuil a NR for Ascot happy days!!
By:
DontBeSakhee
When: 20 Jan 18 12:56
Yes spotted that BF. Although it may be ground related, I suspect there may be further entries yet!
By:
BigField
When: 20 Jan 18 14:03
yes most likely ground related, they're really running out of decent sized/prized handicaps over 2 and a half miles before Cheltenham so here's hoping they wait!
By:
DontBeSakhee
When: 20 Jan 18 15:34
Agree. Although the smaller the pot the less likely the mark increase. Will gave to see what they do. Had a look the other day and a fair few of the most recent Coral Cup winners ran in Feb!
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 21 Jan 18 12:44
just for info , the official reason for Le Breuil not running yesterday was a bruised foot...
By:
BigField
When: 21 Jan 18 15:23
Thanks Rease
By:
willie the milk
When: 22 Jan 18 20:26
Squouteur in the Kim Muir. Not that original I know but went off 5s for the race last year and was going alright when falling. Only had the 2 runs this season. Elliot will hopefully have it primed.
By:
BigField
When: 22 Jan 18 20:45
DoneBeSakhee - been looking into both the Martin Pipe and Coral Cup and think you're right in saying Le Breuil should go for the Coral Cup - Pauling would want the best jockey available on this horse and the trip should be perfect for it, also probably more favourable to carry less weight than horses it's (imo) just as good/if not better than instead of more weight than horses it's more than likely better than.
By:
DontBeSakhee
When: 22 Jan 18 22:27
Indeed BF. LB looks like a horse ahead of the handicapper, whether he's ahead enough to win a race as hot as the Coral Cup is another matter, but in the MP there's bound to be something lurking at the bottom which could scupper him.
By:
BigField
When: 22 Jan 18 22:34
Agreed, when LB won that race impressively at Aintree last season I thought to myself "that's a horse worth a rating of 145" and would have expected it 12 months later to have improved more to a rating of 150 or so. I know that's just my humble opinion but to me that makes the horse 11lbs well in. I do truly believe the horse is better than it was last year but it just hasn't had the chance to show it. LB jumped well and travelled well on seasonal reappearance (if I remember rightly it blundered the 2nd last?) but that I can put down to the horse being tired. Then on his second race back this season he succumbed to the ground but still ran respectably, but that was all on class. For the first time at Cheltenham Pauling will have the horse fully wound up and the ground to suit, will be the biggest bet I've had in a handicap that's for sure :)
By:
BigField
When: 22 Jan 18 22:38
Only thing I can't decide whether to back it now with at its biggest price of 25/1 (with 365, though they've limited my account but I've just got a new bank card so will register that and put on a couple losing bets on basketball in order to get a stake on LB) or wait until it hopefully goes bigger on here - I'll be betting win only regardless.
By:
DontBeSakhee
When: 22 Jan 18 22:43
The Coral Cup has been a pig to me down the years. Kicks for Free being beaten a nose is an albatross around my neck. However I finally broke my duck with Diamond King and then followed up with Supasundae last year, so hoping for the hatrick.

A fool and his money are soon parted backing in handicaps this early, but I do like the look of this one and so given that B365 are out to 25 NRNB, the fool has availed himself again!
By:
BigField
When: 23 Jan 18 21:34
Fingers crossed!!

Charli Parcs would have a good shout in the County I reckon, that is unless they target the horse for the Betfair hurdle.
By:
DontBeSakhee
When: 23 Jan 18 22:24
Hey there BF.

I profoundly distrust CP after last year. I was hoping he'd be a NR last year after his fall in the Adonis as I had backed NRNB. Sadly it was not to be and he ran in the Triumph. Could be on a good mark though.

Another I have added is Forza Milan for the Pertemps. Always wary of a Jonjo plot horse and it wouldn't surprise me to see it run in Feb for a penalty and then hose up! Its form is reasonable as well.
By:
DontBeSakhee
When: 23 Jan 18 22:27
Should've mentioned that at 25 with BillyHills concession (don't see what else it could run in), I'm reasonably happy that I'd get my money back if it doesn't get an entry.
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