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Cheltenham Festival

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FOYLESWAR
15 Dec 17 17:01
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Date Joined: 09 Jan 11
| Topic/replies: 22,587 | Blogger: FOYLESWAR's blog
last years 1-2 nicholls canyon and unowhatimeanharry  are at the head of the market but unwimh is a 9 yo and its probably fair to say we know how good he is hard to see him improving at his age ,nichols canyon will have every chance but one i have never taken to, a fair price but one who interests me is hendos thomas campbell ,who looks to have improved for  the step up to 3 miles ,has won 2 staying handicap hurdles this season and is an up and comer at  decent price around 18/1 on here and 16s with the books .
now officially rated 158 with improvement anticipated he could be a fair bit shorter come march . entered in the long walk hurdle at ascot over christmas he appeals at the prices .
selection stayers hurdle ....thomas campbell 1 point each way 16s or better ............around 5s -6s a place on here for buttons but worth taking the crumbs imo..good luck sand as ever input and opinions welcome .

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Replies: 205
By:
impossible123
When: 15 Dec 17 18:48
This race looks more open now with the defeats of Unwhatimeanharry (U) and Nichols Canyon (NC) this season; Beer Goggles (166) and Thomas Campbell (163) both won theirs - the former beating U (172), fairly and squarely, receiving 6lbs, and the latter has been winning in handicap races. But both will need to improve further to be considered serious contenders, I believe.

The one I'd be very interested in is Apples Jade (166), the conqueror of NC (172) over 20f in Ireland just recently. If beating NC again in the Squared Financial over the x'mas period her new rating will surpass U and NC (both closely match), and most likely be fav despite her trainer nominating the Mares Hurdle as her target. Let's hope as this race needs a superstar to revive the interests once coveted by Big Bucks and Thistlecrack.
By:
wellchief
When: 15 Dec 17 20:47
One that I'm keeping my eye on (long shot admittedly) is Bacardys.

This fella has rock solid novice hurdle form last year, but messed up his chasing debut and didn't look a natural over the bigger obstacles, so there may be a chance of a switch back to hurdles - his next run over fences will tell us all.  Prices for the Stayers range from 12's to 33's - not suggesting take 33's as he probably is that price just to run, but that is a huge price if this does come on his agenda.

He had the much talked about Finians Oscar behind him last year, and winning the Deloitte as well.  He had no luck at all in the Neptune, so no idea how he would have done, but I think he would have gone really close - that race looking strong with Willoughby Court beating Yanworth and Elgin boosting Neon Wolf in the Greatwood.

Bacardys looks like he needs a trip, so it will be RSA or Stayers imo, but looks to have a good attitude and puts his head down.  He could well become a major player in the Stayers as he has only had one chase run, but he could equally have just as good a chance in a Stayers which lacks good new blood this year, and I don't fancy any of last years runners again.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 15 Dec 17 21:51
apples jade would be serious contender if she rolled up here ,but seems the mares is her target ,nothing set in stone though and things can  and do change .good price bacardys but again ifs and butts about where he will be aimed at ,penhill is another who interests me ! just thought this thomas campbell is an improving type and now handicaps are out the stayers is likely to be on his agenda ,assuming he carries on his upward curve ,the step up to 3m seems to be right up his street and his pedigree is all stamina .
By:
buddeliea
When: 23 Dec 17 14:41
Gotta dismiss all that lot aside from the winner.
Sam Spinner very impressive.
By:
impossible123
When: 23 Dec 17 15:23
Sam Spinner looked impressive but the proximity of L'Ami Serge (travels well but selfdom delivers) a concern; Unowhatimeanharry will be given a longer rest between races thus straight to here. I'd like to see Apples Jade here too if she could deliver the same beating to Nichols Canyon in the Squared Financial as she did last time they met. If so, she'll be a short price fav despite her trainer's assertion the Mares Hurdle is still her race at the Festival.
By:
buddeliea
When: 23 Dec 17 16:27
I expect Ncanyon to strip a lot fitter this time,and back to 3m expect a much better performance.
Think hes the one to beat come March,but agree AJ is interesting if she is aimed at the race.
No bet for me yet,but wish I had backed Sam Spinner a few months ago!!
By:
buddeliea
When: 23 Dec 17 16:28
As for Harry,just don't look good enough now.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 23 Dec 17 17:33
looks like i picked the wrong improving type in thomas campbell !
By:
impossible123
When: 23 Dec 17 18:56
Any supporter of Unowhatimeanharry would feel dishearten after his performance today. And unless too much use had been made of him he seemed to have regressed - he just managed to finish infront of The Worlds End. I hope Nichols Canyon can improve significantly from his previous run otherwise he could be going the same way as Unowhatimeanharry; I'm also waiting on the reappearance of Penhill the winner of the Albert Bartlett despite he being a charge of Mullins.

At the moment the two improving youngsters seem to be Sam Spinner and Beer Goggles. But I've jumped the gun and have backed Apples Jade for this race with/out the blessing of her trainer.
By:
duffy
When: 24 Dec 17 05:27
NC sets a high standard, any horse that has class form at 2 miles and then goes on to prove his stamina over 3 has a head start on the outright stayers and he's proven that now, 7's looks very fair.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 24 Dec 17 14:07
saw an article from a brighton paper ,tony bloom owner of penhill   said horse has had a setback ,cant remember exact words but its on the net if ya search penhill
By:
easygold
When: 24 Dec 17 14:09
The New One, could be the dark horse this year...... it`s about time NTD steps him up in trip..... hopefully the two favs line-up in the C.H and that will surely encourage connections to take part in this event.
By:
impossible123
When: 24 Dec 17 15:46
Foyleswar, cheers. A six month sideline was intimated by owner about injury sustained whilst in training for the Melbourne Cup this year - the article was dated 13th Aug 2017.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 24 Dec 17 17:10
yes thats it imp123 ,
By:
impossible123
When: 27 Dec 17 18:16
Get ready for Apple's Jade gatecrashing post the Squared Financial Hurdle tomorrow, I assume.
By:
bluebirdfan
When: 28 Dec 17 14:30
Great run from Supasundae
By:
unclepuncle
When: 28 Dec 17 14:33
Sad demise for NC and Apples Jade still on target for the Mares - totally understandable as well imo so please can those who have backed her for the Stayers despite connections previous comments not whinge about it.Cry

Given the above Supasundae looks the value to me @ 10/1 -though thanks to Lydia Hislop tipping it in her Sporting Life column I got 25/1 with Skybet a while back.Grin

Even half tempted to back Yanworth @ 20/1 as surely if he fails over fences next time they might see the Stayers as a better option?
By:
DontBeSakhee
When: 28 Dec 17 15:34
I backed Supasundae today and availed myself 16/1 for the Stayers before the race. Bit gutted he got beat today, but was only beaten by the better horse who he shouldn't have to reoppose given Fez targets. No shame in being beaten by AJ.
Given that I backed Supasundae for the Coral Cup and when beaten at Aintree a length by Yanworth I'm kicking myself I didn't go in at 25 like uncle!
By:
wellchief
When: 28 Dec 17 16:32
Took the plunge on Bacardys myself after he fell today. Two fails in two chases, but this G1 winning hurdler has a big race in him. Hoping they aim him at the Stayers and had my very first Cheltenham bet at 33's; likely to be money down the drain but you can always dream Laugh

Really tough race to get my head around at the minute.
By:
impossible123
When: 28 Dec 17 18:12
Commiseration to backers of Nichols Canyon. What a sad thing to happen to a tough horse and trier. RIP Nichols Canyon!

Looking much much less lightly AJ will contest this race after all despite getting up to win. But I was curious as to why she did not make the running per usual.

Could Yanworth and/or Finians Oscar run here? Both unnatural jumpers but slick hurdlers.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 28 Dec 17 18:16
think the plan was by the harrington team to try to expose any stamina issues and not let her have an easy lead ,and it nearly worked !
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 28 Dec 17 19:25
The New One needs to be running in the Cleeve instead of that 2 mile hurdle at Haydock he wins every year before finishing 4th or 5th in the Champion Hurdle.  Happy
By:
wellchief
When: 28 Dec 17 21:13
Agree that it does seem a bit pointless putting him in the Champion Hurdle again.

Shows he gets 2 and a half from his Neptune/Aintree wins and with him being 10 come the next festival it's now or never for him over 3m.

Recent victories for Solwhit and Nichols Canyon should give them the incentive to go for it.
By:
wellchief
When: 28 Dec 17 21:16
Plus Celestial Halo finishing second in the stayers at his first attempt at 3m too
By:
impossible123
When: 30 Dec 17 20:36
A bit of money for Penhill (18 into 12 here). Has he been spotted sprouting wings on the gallops?
By:
sageform
When: 02 Jan 18 19:06
Sam TD said in his column that The New One is going for the Stayers. Beer Goggles form looks as good as any over the trip.
By:
buddeliea
When: 09 Jan 18 20:29
Finian's Oscar is set to have his chasing career interrupted for a tilt at the Sun Bets Stayers' Hurdle – and he may not be the only one after it emerged connections of other high-profile stars are sitting on the fence about moving away from the bigger obstacles.
Yanworth is also under consideration for a switch back to hurdles in March, while fellow leading novice chaser Willoughby Court is expected to be given the option of lining up in the Cheltenham Festival's Thursday showpiece by receiving an entry. The £325,000 contest closes next Tuesday.
Possibly moving in the opposite direction is L'Ami Serge, although the French Champion Hurdle hero remains more likely to feature in the Stayers' – whose market is headed by massive improver Sam Spinner at 4-1 – than the Ryanair Chase, for which he has been entered.
Finian's Oscar had already been a best-priced 25-1 for the Stayers' and 16-1 with those firms offering a non-runner-no-bet concession having been defeated on his most recent two novice chase outings.
Last season he struck at the highest level twice over hurdles, most impressively when scoring by three lengths at Aintree. The six-year-old will first revert to his old job in the Galliardhomes.com Cleeve Hurdle on January 27.
By:
impossible123
When: 09 Jan 18 21:11
Indeed, if he wins the Cleeve Hurdle he'd be nearer fav for this race, I firmly believe. Similarly, Yanworth (McManus/Unowhatimeanharry) if he takes this route too. But L'Ami serge could go the opposite way eg Ryanair.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 09 Jan 18 21:14
Tizzard hasn't done his reputation any good with the way he's handled FO this seasn has he. Looks like he has no idea what he's doing.
By:
barnesey
When: 09 Jan 18 22:12
Thought finians Oscar ran a good race last time at Ascot 2 average jumps aside, he really stayed on well and looked like a step up to 3 miles and RSA trip would be ideal, No idea if he will be good enough to win this years stayers but personally I think they should have persevered with chasing I think he would of eventually got it right!
By:
joevalue147
When: 09 Jan 18 22:18
Got outstayed by Bacardys in Punchestown last year.   After Finians won at Cheltenham Colin said he has loads of gears and could be an Arkle horse.  Talking about fooking around a good horse. Simply astounded with the handling of ths horse this season.
By:
impossible123
When: 10 Jan 18 07:59
I'm sorry but some of Tizzard's running plans for his charges this season and last did not reflect the experience and acumen of a top trainer. I also agree he ought to have persevered with the original plan of Finian's Oscar for the rest of the season rather than chopping and changing on whims; the JLT, RSA and the Stayers are very open races this Cheltenham.
By:
p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y
When: 10 Jan 18 10:20
He should of stuck with him chasing despite the fact he is nowhere near good enough at his fences to win any of those chases. Personally think he would have a massive chance in the stayers hurdle and it is the correct move.
By:
impossible123
When: 10 Jan 18 10:30
If Yanworth is rerouted here my money will be on him before others as he has the form and proven stamina; Finian's Oscar just managed to win over 20f in Ireland, if memory serves.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 10 Jan 18 11:02
Not sure you'd be quite so polite about 'trainer's acumen' if it was Mullins doing this impossible. You'd have self combusted by now.
By:
joevalue147
When: 10 Jan 18 11:41
Impossible he got beat in Ireland. Have looked all over the winner Bacardys ran him down.  They never really gave the horse a chance over fences after his impressive Cheltenham win where he gave some good horses weight and a beating over 2mile 4.  All the media were purring over him after beating Movewithetimes.   Then Tizzards decide he might be an Arkle horse.  They didnt think there was too much wrong with his jumping if they were talking about running him in the Arkle.   They then ran him over 2 miles at Sandowm in the best 2mile novice chase ran in UK this year where he didnt perform at all. Now they are basicailly saying he is an out and out stayer.??????ConfusedConfused  Have they forgotton about the run in Punchestown last year?? They are making a complete b0llox of this horse.  Why they were not happy sticking to JLT route is beyond me. 2M 4/5F around Cheltenham was his most impressive run this year. Mind boggling stuff.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 10 Jan 18 11:47
I've said before that Tizzard has 'little man' syndrome - loves being the centre of attention.
By:
joevalue147
When: 10 Jan 18 12:03
Clearly the JLT is not a big enough race for them to win.  Willie Mullins tends to disagree. (Vatour,Yorkhill prime examples)..... Gordon Elliott sticking to mares race to almost guarentee he bags a Festival winner with Apples Jade. It's not rocket science. Stick to the trip the horse has his best form over instead of guessing.  I doubt Alan Potts(rip) would be happy with the way this horse is being messed around.
By:
joevalue147
When: 10 Jan 18 12:06
In actual fact Colin Tizzard is quoted by saying something along the lines of that he'd like to win a race with more prestige than the JLT with Finian's at the Festival.   Says it all really.
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