Cheltenham Festival
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Hi guys, newbie here so go easy! (also making a new post because I have tried to comment in other threads but when I click send it just disappears without posting, so any help with that is much appreciated!)
Anyway... Have been reading on here that a number of people see Yorkhill as a great shout for the CH and would be the most likely sub for Faugheen in the event he doesn't make it to Cheltenham. Given this, I am a little bit confused at odds movements this weekend whereby Yorkhill shortened up for the CH before drifting so that today he is 17s, meanwhile his price for the JLT is holding up at nearly 3/1. Is the CH drift purely based on Ricci saying that Faugheen will be fine?
Anyway... Have been reading on here that a number of people see Yorkhill as a great shout for the CH and would be the most likely sub for Faugheen in the event he doesn't make it to Cheltenham. Given this, I am a little bit confused at odds movements this weekend whereby Yorkhill shortened up for the CH before drifting so that today he is 17s, meanwhile his price for the JLT is holding up at nearly 3/1. Is the CH drift purely based on Ricci saying that Faugheen will be fine?
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Is the CH drift purely based on Ricci saying that Faugheen will be fine?
There are a number of reasons: Faugheen has shown in the past he needs a run People don't trust what Ricci says and rightly so Two weeks ago both Faugheen and Annie Power were well, suddenly Annie is out and Faugheen is withdrawn from the Irish Champion Hurdle. Bad prep Wyle and Mullins have both said (recently) that Yorkhill would make a fine Champion Hurdler VVM showed at Doncaster that she won't be winning a CH therefore Yorkhill becomes more of an option |
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Welcome to the forum Charlie.
Whenever I try and post on Chrome on my phone or Internet Explorer on the PC, I get a "you do not have permission to edit this thread" error message, so I use Firefox on both and seems to work fine. Re Yorkhill - Skybet have pushed him out to 9/4 for the JLT - seems big considering one of his main rivals in Beveur D'Air will be a non runner. Even though his jumping technique has been debated, I think he is much the best horse in the race. There has been all the switching for the Champion Hurdle, but if Min's knock is worse than feared, Yorkhill could be dropped into the Arkle and Bellshill could easily come back for the JLT - so much can happen between now and March. Unless you want to take a pure punt, I think it's defintiely worth waiting for NRNB - must only be round the corner now. If there was a huge standout antepost price, maybe take the risk, but if only half a point in it, might as well wait. |
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Well backed here overnight for Champion trading 20s yesterday into 9s now
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Yeah some interesting movements on here, Yorkhill went under 2/1 for the JLT before bouncing back and now right up there in the CH market.
Do you really think Mullins would send Yorkhill to the Arkle? Surely the JLT or CH would be a much more likely win than taking on Altior. Thanks for the tip chief, it seems to be working on Firefox. |
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Personally, I think 1 of 2 things will happen.
1- Faugheen (CH) & Yorkhill (JLT) 2- With every passing day, I believe its looking less and less likely that Faugheen will make the festival and thus clouding the Champion Hurdle market even more. Mullins could go from an embarrassment of Champion Hurdle riches to relatively nothing (without supplementing). I have inferred from Mullins comments about Yorkhill/Faugheen that he is indeed the understudy should things not go to plan with Faugheen (And previously Annie). Adding further substance to the annual March Mullins debacle. Nichols Canyon looks to be held by Pettit Mouchoir, so maybe it is in both Willies & Wylie's best interests to re route Yorkhill to the Champion. Willie has a lot more that he could run in the JLT than he does in the Champion, or thats my take on it anyway. One argument I can't entertain at all is that of Yorkhill going to the Arkle and Min moving. Personally can't have Min staying the JLT trip and reverting Min to hurdles makes even less sense. Largely because Min is a better chaser than Yorkhill and Yorkhill is a better hurdler than Min. Im personally working off of the assumption that Yorkhill reverts back to the hurdles and am looking for juice in the JLT market whilst he is still in it. Notably Charbel (33-1) who has a nice little formline with Altior from the Henry VIII. Sorry that turned into a ramble, but I hope you get my drift! Welcome also Charlie. Nice to have a new face! |
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Cheers JB, your comments certainly make a lot of sense, would be quite the turn up if both Yorkhill and Buveur D'air end up contesting the CH and leave the JLT wide open wouldn't it!
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Yorkhill wouldn't re route to the Arkle, at any stage would he? Why sidestep the JLT where he holds a fav chance, to take on Alitor, one of the Bankers of the meeting.
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Makes no sense to go Arkle route as he doesn't jump well enough yet. You either try turning him into a future GC horse, and tackle the easier JLT, or go back to hurdles and run in the CH. If he was mine i'd stick with Plan A.
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If Yorkhill is sound and Faugheen iffy, the only probable reroute is to the Champion Hurdle - the former's fencing is not Grade 1 yet and Altior will probably put him in his place; Min had won over 18f on soft and heavy ground so 20f in the JLT is not an issue. And, if I remember correctly Mullins did intimate that there was no rush to up distance with Min after one of his early victories over fences.
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Top Notch (JLT) my nap of the fez !
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20, NRNB
Worse bets around mate |
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Anthea should get Willie in a leglock and refuse to let go until Yorkhill has passed the post first in the Champion - he's the third best engine in training.
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That was nice Howdi
20's long gone He would be my favourite moment of the Festival if he were to win,just love this horse. |
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vastly under rated horse imo 5th in champion and a good juneville4
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No love for Charbel? Despite having beaten both Top Notch & Le Prezien. I also am inclined to have a gut feeling that Top Notch needs ground on the softer side. Cant deny its impressiveness today anyhow
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love for everyone jb x
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Love to you Howdi x
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champion hurdle going to cut up rotten if faugeen misses it. could be wekest champion since flakey dove won and i could have beaten her.
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altior couldnt could he.....................
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i wouldnt be laying apples jade at 48s
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I'd have thought if Faugheen missed it you'd have 20 runners
 , similar scenario to the GC, question marks against the perceived favs, if I had a high class handicap chaser/hurdler I'd be having a bash. |
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if faugheens out ive entered myself.
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and i think thats enough of you and your late night bashings , duffy.
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There'd be more chance of you winning the CH than making good on your annual promise to deliver a festival quiz anyhow
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Right saturday before the fez quiz on whose in?
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When (not if) will Mullins declare he has been rerouted to the Champion Hurdle? Sooner rather than later, please, Mr Mullins.
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seems a no brainer now
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Time for Mr Wylie to make a stand here and demand jlt for Yorkhill. If the race was good enough for him when the ricci horses were fit it should be good enough for him now. Let Mullins and Ruby know who's paying the bills.
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Yorkhill is entered in the Flogas Novices Chase at Leopardstown on Sunday - they're surely unlikely to risk him there if they're going to supplement him for the Champion Hurdle.
They'd also surely want him to get some match practice over hurdles - with the Red Mills hurdle at Gowran Park the most likely option - I think that is Sat Feb 18th. So I think they have to decide fairly soon - don't think they can leave it to 6 day supplementary stage although anything is possible. |
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I think he ois Mullins best chance of winning the race and deserves a tilt at the CH. I expect the switch to be announced in the next day or two and for him to go off favourite on the day.
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One thing not really getting mentioned is the apparent obsession with the Gold Cup for connections.
Its possible they see Yorkhill as one that could be a Gold Cup contender,and may want to keep him chasing. Just a thought. |
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Wylie likes mullins to crack the whip and dominate him. The horse will go where pinnochio wants it to.
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I agree that the lack of a GC is a blot on Mullins copy book however I don't see Yorkhill as a potential gold cup horse myself. Jumping is too sketchy and he has produced no evidence that he is capable of staying the distance.
Mullins sowed the seeds a few weeks ago about Yourkhill reverting over hurdles and if he announces now that he is diverting him back to the CH then there will be a lot of suspicious minds over how honest Mullins has been all along with the well being of Faugheen and AP. Even in announcing the decision today he is still stringing the public along by setting a Punchestown target for which there is no chance he will appear. |
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Take your points Trigger, but they went chasing for a reason,but maybe they are thinking hes a Ryanair horse for the future.
It does go against their normal target of the Gold Cup though,and I would not be surprised if they stepped him up to find out if he is a potential GC horse. Would not be surprised if he were supplemented for the Churdle either,thats certainly the popular opinion on here. Anyway whatever they decide,lets hope they do it pretty soon. |
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I do not think Yorkhill is bomb-proof in the JLT given his none-too-convincing fencing despite his more superior hurdling form. As for his future aspiration for the Gold Cup that would be put in the back burner for the time being.
If Yorkhill goes awol in this weekend's Flogas Novices Chase the Cheltenham Hurdle die would have been cast, I firmly believe, unless of course a plausible reason for his absenteeism is provided. The news today about Faugheen was not a total surprise, Min was despite Mr Mullins' intimation it was only a "knock" that caused him to miss last weekend's engagement. |
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What about Nichols Canyon for the Wylie/Mullins combo. Won last two G1 Morgiana's (beating Faugheen in Nov 15) and 3rd in last years Champion Hurdle. That would allow them to leave Yorkhill in JLT and Bellshill in RSA. Must be an option don't you think ?
Suspect Reaseheath has hit nail on the head regarding the key indicator being Yorkhill entry in the Flogas Novices Chase at Leopardstown on Sunday and whether he runs or not. Not long to wait. The joy of ante post betting. Why o why do I continue to fall for it. |
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Can still be backed at 6/1 for the Champion Hurdle - value or foolhardy?
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On a straight formline through Yanworth (who is around 9/2) you would have to make Yorkhill around a 3/1 shot should he line up even allowing for the fact that he is reverting to hurdles late in the campaign. Based on that price (6/1) you are effectively guessing that he has around a 50/50 chance of lining up in the CH.
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