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Finians Oscar

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Replies: 203
By:
bluebirdfan
When: 11 Dec 17 16:32
Monalee will be favourite for the RSA
By:
joevalue147
When: 12 Dec 17 07:32
Are people just fooking stupid or what.   Hes a horse with a change of gear and more than a touch of class.   He doesnt need or want to be going into a gruelling RSA. He got outstayed by Bacardys in Punchestown last year.   It is like as if ye all want to ignore what he has won already over fences and done so impressively.  2m 5 is his proper trip.  They ran him over 2 mile last saturday out of pure greed because the prizemoney was good.  If they run him in the RSA the hosre should be taken off him.    He was brilliant against Movewiththetimes around Cheltenham over 2m4 and there was no reason to start chopping and changing.  They need to stick to what suits the horse best and thats JLT trip.   Never mind what race has the more pretisge or prizemoney.   Dont fook the horse up over prizemoney.
By:
firstimevisor
When: 12 Dec 17 09:39
He'd have been beaten even further on Saturday if the race had been over 2m 5,and that's if he finished at all. It wasn't the trip but something was clearly amiss and they must have found an explanation for him to be entered up again so quickly.
By:
Cash Is King
When: 12 Dec 17 09:44
I think it's complete nonsense when trainers say that a decent horse will win over any distance and on any going.

That said, Finian's Oscar didn't jump particularly well when it won at Cheltenham in November and seemed to be taken off his feet at Sandown on Saturday. I'm not sure the trip was the problem - decent stayers like My Way de Solzen had no trouble winning Grade 1 chases over 2 miles - and hopefully something will come to light in the coming days to explain the poor performance.
By:
joevalue147
When: 13 Dec 17 11:41
My Way De Solzen's Arkle fell apart when Twist Magic and Dont Push It fell indepentantly 2 out.   The winner was left to beat Fair Along who was ridden far too aggresively.   Alan King had luck very much on side after making the decision he did. Anyway Finian's Oscar has never been described as a stayer.   So i dont get the My Way De Solzen argument.  They tried Finian's at 2miles and it clearly didnt work.  They could bottom him out in an RSA and then they might not have the same horse to go to war with in his first all age year if they continue to sour him.  Said it before and i'll say it again.  If its not broke, why change it??   Greed thats why.
By:
firstimevisor
When: 13 Dec 17 13:22
What has greed got to do with it? That run on Saturday proved nothing. He'd have run a shocker no matter what trip it was.
By:
eric_morris
When: 13 Dec 17 14:14
First time out Finians Oscar was having to be pushed to keep up before coming on the bridle as his stamina kicked in, last time out even more so over a shorter trip.

Why dont we ask Tizzard to stick him in another 2 miler just to show beyond doubt he doesnt have 2mile pace. Obviously everyone knows that isnt going to happen so can bluff away about the horse knowing they arent going to be made to look silly (again).
By:
eric_morris
When: 13 Dec 17 14:33
Anyone who has backed him for the Arkle just because the Coral employed Tizzards were announcing that was his likely target needs to just learn from it then rip up their slip amd move on.
By:
joevalue147
When: 13 Dec 17 14:47
The prizemoney for the Sandown grade 1 last Saturday lured them in imo.   Shocking decision to now go 3mile for the rest of the season after the horse showing them he's best at 2 Mile 4/5 furlongs.   Theres the JLT which is tailormade for him and they seem like thats the last race they want to run him in.   Oh, and guess what.   JLT is less prizemoney than RSA.   Why fanny about with trip when they know he's brilliant over JLT trip.??   Tizzards trying to 'milk' the horse for all they can get.
By:
firstimevisor
When: 13 Dec 17 15:15
There's very little difference between 2 mile pace and 2m 4 pace.They go off at more or less the same gallop. All national hunt horses are stayers. They have more than one specific trip.
By:
eric_morris
When: 13 Dec 17 15:47
Wrong imo
By:
eric_morris
When: 13 Dec 17 15:56
Over 2m they are getting in a fast jumping rhythm straight away from the off trying to gain clean jumping momentum as a mistake gives less time to recover than the longer trip where stamina can make up ground. Ground against other speed horses much harder to make up with less stopping in front.
Brain Power has that natural 2m speed without being asked, Finians Oscar doesnt which is a massive disadvantage having to scrub to make him go faster than he wants early. He wants to drop in at a normal pace and settle into his jumping for the first two miles he doesnt want to race before then.
By:
eric_morris
When: 13 Dec 17 16:56
He has a 4 to 5 length kick at two and a half miles which he has shown often enough takes him away from most horses. Whether the extra half mile at a course like Cheltenham will allow his legs to preserve that kick until late is unknown. The RSA is a race where you really need to stay on galloping relentlessly up that hill and bursts of speed that dont last long are less important than at two and a half.
By:
eric_morris
When: 13 Dec 17 17:10
All horses are different.

You generally have speed horses at 2 mile, speed/stamina horses at 2m4f and stamina horses at 3m.

2m you are looking for a naturally high cruising speed throughout the race to just aim at the fences using little extra energy to keep with the pace and get into a fast rhythm and have a kick for late. Speed everything at this trip.

2m4f you are looking for a horse who doesnt set alight early and who gets into a good comfortable rhythm waiting for the latter half mile where the race heats up and the horses with a mix of stamina and speed will go on. Those having stamina combined with a late burst of speed best.

3m similar to 2m4f with extra stamina required which can sap the kick from 2m4f horses as the relentless gallopers push them to the limit.

Sometimes you get 2m4f horses who barely just have the speed for 2m and these are the unusual types, like Captain Chris, who dont lose touch enough over 2m to enable them to devour the hill. Other times, as with Finians Oscar you have a definite 2m4f horse who doesnt have the speed to stay in touch at 2m for his stamina to take advantage late.
By:
firstimevisor
When: 13 Dec 17 17:42
Finians Oscar easily won a grade 1 over 2 miles. He's not devoid of speed and he possesses enough pace to have had a proper chance last saturday had he done no more than run his normal race.

If that had been 2m 4 or 3m he would have been lapped, so it wasn't the trip that beat him. In fact, Brain Power tearing off in front like he did should have helped, as it did with Sceau Royal who was switched off and produced late.

There is practically no difference in the speed they go whether its 2m or 2m 4 and when you get a hard pulling horse in front (Un de Sceaux!), the pace will be the same regardless of trip.
By:
eric_morris
When: 13 Dec 17 18:11
Ok mate i’ve tried to explain relative pace and we will agree to disagree again.
By:
easygold
When: 13 Dec 17 18:12
You keep saying no difference in speed over 2m- 2m4f..... if you re-watch any 2m Arkle, 2m Queen Mother or Grand Annual and re-watch any JLT you will straight away see the difference in the first half mile of the contest.... go and time the first half mile of each... and you will see the massive difference
By:
firstimevisor
When: 13 Dec 17 19:30
Cant agree there-very little difference...certainly not massive and sometimes the longer race is run at a faster tempo.

All jumpers,by their very nature,are stayers.2 miles is not a sprint. As a general rule they gallop within their comfort zones and the pace lifts towards the end of the race, whatever the distance.

In any era, hurdles or fences, the best horses would beat the rest at either distance.
By:
easygold
When: 13 Dec 17 21:54
Did you do what you where asked to do? Time the races??? and you will learn the difference between both disciplines. Do the data and you will get the results.
Noble Prince is a hint, that 2 miles over fences/hurdles was too short but look what happened when Nolan made-up for the error running him in the V.O.B C.Hurdle.... JLT.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 14 Dec 17 05:02
some strange stuff being written about this horse, personally i don't believe him to be a very good jumper from what i have seen...saturday was his first test at speed and jumping and he collapsed quicker than a cheap tent...he could be an expensive horse to follow this season and if i were them i'd pull stumps and go back over hurdles because things are only going to get tougher...i'm praying they run him in the feltham
By:
joevalue147
When: 14 Dec 17 10:46
Couldnt agree with eric more here.   How anyone thinks 2mile pace and 2mile 4pace are roughly the same is beyond me.
By:
joevalue147
When: 14 Dec 17 10:49
If any horse went off 2 mile pace in the JLT they would be a million to get home. Especially on the New Course which is much stiffer than the Old Course.   Although some people probably think theres not much difference between the two tracks.
By:
eric_morris
When: 14 Dec 17 11:00
joevalue147 i think you are talking to Arkle vouchers looking for a run. Little point in arguing with impossible hope.
By:
firstimevisor
When: 14 Dec 17 11:28
Right,I've done as you asked Easygold and here is the data for the 7 championship chases at this year's Cheltenham festival

[b]Race/Winner/Weight[/b]                            Race Distance in Yards               Time in Seconds                 Average Time-Seconds Per Mile

Altior  Arkle  11-4                                                     3499                                                335.00                                      118.20

Special Tiara   QM   11-10                                              3499                                                335.40                                      118.41

Might Bite   RSA    11-4                                                5360                                                368.80                                      121.09

Yorkhill    JLT    11-4                                                 4378                                                300.02                                      120.61

Un De Sceaux   Ryanair 11-10                                            4566                                                309.60                                      119.34

Sizing John   Gold Cup  11-10                                           5790                                                396.10                                      120.40

Pacha De Polder  Foxhunters  12-0                                       5790                                                402.80                                      122.44



As you can see,there is very little difference in speed over various trips - Sizing John actually covered the JLT trip faster than Yorkhill even though he had an extra 7 furlongs to race.
By:
easygold
When: 14 Dec 17 12:00
No u didn`t do what was asked.......... the first half-mile of the 2m races vs any of the JTL....... u will see that 3.9 seconds+ some are run 4.8 seconds quicker in the first half-mile and some even 6.s quicker...... do you understand that the first half-mile of the race is so important for horses that want further than two-miles there race can be over..... and sometimes their price is three-times bigger after a half-mile gone.
By:
firstimevisor
When: 14 Dec 17 13:29
How fast the leader is going in the first half mile is irrelevant if that same horse is tailing off in the last half mile.Going an even pace increases their chances of winning

The stats posted above prove my point, that there is most certainly not a massive difference in how fast horses are travelling at different distances. Its over to you now if you are trying to prove otherwise.I'm not doing it for you.
By:
bluebirdfan
When: 14 Dec 17 14:34
A heck of a lot of people seem to be missing the obvious with this horse. Regardless of what trip is his best; he’s just not a very good jumper of fences is he? Looks far from a natural chaser
By:
impossible123
When: 14 Dec 17 17:46
The JLT is too hot a race with the likes of Willoughby Court and Death Duty both good jumpers and also stay 20f very well. As such, Finians Oscar cannot afford to be handicapped by his fencing against them. The RSA, in my opinion, is an easier race to win; Monalee is fav but I'd fancy Yanworth and/or Finians Oscar, if either turns up. I know little about Presenting Percy, and Bacardys is not for me either on given form and connections.
By:
Ibrahima Sonko
When: 14 Dec 17 22:08
Im his biggest fan, he doesnt jump efficiently to win top races at this moment.

Should try him at a 3mile hurdle to see where he is.
By:
DontBeSakhee
When: 14 Dec 17 23:06
Given that he won a PtP race, beating a reasonable yardstick in Mr Clarkson, I’d be inclined to think he’d stay 3 miles. Personally I’d stick him into a lower grade 3 mile novice chase and see how he gets on. Running him in the Dipper on New Year’s Day won’t really tell anyone anything we don’t already know.

The 2 mile issue has [hopefully] been put to bed, get the 3 mile issue sorted and then move forward with whatever the best trip is, or at least appears to be.

A theory (only my own I should point out) around all the really strange obsessing from Tizzard about FO being an Arkle horse very early on this jumps season, could’ve been that Sizing John runs in the same colours. If they were to go down the 3 mile route and it was a success then there’s only one race they could aim for next year and by then they could be aiming for a third GC for SJ. The Potts were notoriously demanding owners, so if Alan Potts told Tizzard he wanted a Queen Mother horse then I doubt CT would’ve risked them moving the horses from his yard.

Conjecture on my part, but if that were right then with the deaths of both Alan and Ann and with uncertainty around who now owns the horses and/or what will happen to them I guess CT would have a bit more scope to do what he wants.
By:
joevalue147
When: 14 Dec 17 23:46
If he wins the Dipper he will have beaten the current favourite for the JLT and if he wins in commanding fashion then he will be the new clear favourite for the JLT.   So,.... connections will have LEARNED that he is the best novice in the UK over 2m 4 without much doubt.  And having beat Death Duty easily at the Punchestown festival last season surely there would be no need to step him up and take a chance(this season) to see if he stays 3 mile plus.  I can see why people doubt his jumping but he seems clever enough to me and he got into a lovely rhytmn when he beat Movewithetimes,...... low and behold over 2mile and 4.5furlongs.  Willoughby Court will try and grind them into submission but i can see Finian's doing him for toe between the final 2 fences and staying on strongly up the hill to win in ready fashion.  Willoughby Court's connections may well decide to go RSA after the Dipper as he seems a through stayer and looked to have plenty move to give when winning at the Cheltenham Festival last year when holding off Neon Wolf(rip champ).Cry  That's the way i'm reading it but obviously we all probably need a crystal ball to help us out.  One way or the other The Dipper on New Years day is essential viewing and what the antepost game is all about.  Good luck to everyone especially me and Eric. Laugh
By:
harry callaghan
When: 15 Dec 17 04:44
had to reach for a bucket after reading your post joevalue what a lot of nonsense, still whatever helps you believe in your bet
By:
eric_morris
When: 15 Dec 17 06:48
joevalue i havent backed Finians Oscar antepost after the nonsense with announcements from Tizzards last Festival. Backed him on his penultimate run this season when he won and thats it. Not happy with Tizzards being a ‘sponsored trainer’ of Carols have found announcements on targets by them very bizarre.
By:
joevalue147
When: 15 Dec 17 09:46
Corals go 5/1 worst price for JLT so maybe thats the hint .
By:
sageform
When: 15 Dec 17 13:25
Might have Cooper back on board from now on?
By:
joevalue147
When: 15 Dec 17 19:32
yes deffo sage
By:
Graeme83
When: 16 Dec 17 00:04
Not convinced sandown was him. Wouldn't have done anything over any distance.
By:
wellchief
When: 16 Dec 17 08:44
Think he's a bit overrated myself,not sure anything he's done on track warrants his very lofty reputation thus far.

Won the Tolworth well but nothing has come out of that, and his G1 at Aintree was a poor race and he was a fresh horse having missed the festival, and then didn't manage to get his head in front in Ireland.

Don't get me wrong, he's a good horse and may well be a very good one in the future but I fear some may be following him blind based on one or two good performances last year where the form has yet to stack up.
By:
sageform
When: 16 Dec 17 09:30
Hard to win any of the Festival Novice chasers if you make mistakes or even jump slowly. That makes FO and Yanworth poor value for me.
By:
impossible123
When: 16 Dec 17 17:12
Between Finians Oscar and Yanworth, I'd side with the latter who has better form, I believe; he also finished behind Yorkhill in the Neptune.
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