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Can't Catch Me
06 Jan 17 08:47
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Date Joined: 02 Apr 03
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Right. Seems a good time to get a thread up about this lad, before he puts himself firmly into the Cheltenham picture this weekend Mischief

Colin Tizzard has made no secret of just how highly he rates this horse, and that surely has to make you sit up and listen. I thought it was a tremendous performance at Hereford, really jumped well and seems to have a massive engine. Handled the soft ground well that day which bodes well for the Tolworth, but being by Oscar, he should be pretty versatile ground wise, and did win his point on good ground.

I think he may have beaten a pretty decent horse at Hereford last time...and he did with it ease. Hopefully he will take the step up in grade in his stride.

I've taken the 12/1 to win Any Race and also had a dabble at 20/1 in the Neptune. Very surprised to see him shorter in the betting for the Supreme. Considering he won going away at Hereford over 2m5f, and the Tolworth on soft going is generally a race for more staying types, I'd be very surprised if the Supreme was the race for him.

Thoughts anyone?

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Replies: 203
By:
Jb23
When: 06 Jan 17 10:28
Just been confirmed for the Tolworth along with Capitaine, Celestial Path, Chalonnial, Charlemar & Global Stage
By:
Jb23
When: 06 Jan 17 10:30
Also worth noting that the horse it beat in its PTP by 8 lengths- Mr Clarkson, came out and won a New Years Day bumper at Exeter with the front 2 pulling 20L clear of the third
By:
eric_morris
When: 06 Jan 17 10:42
Which novice race at the Festival is the big question. Connections every bit as secretive on targets as the Mullins camp so you probably wont find out until the price has gone.
By:
eric_morris
When: 06 Jan 17 10:50
I think the Supreme is the more likely race as a prep for a Champion Hurdle. The trainer has the first 2 favourites for the Gold Cup in Thistlecrack and Native River and will be trying to hone Finian's speed over the stiff 2m at Cheltenham with a hurdling future in mind.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 06 Jan 17 13:15
I'd say the Neptune has been the better CH trial over the years myself.

I think he will be a Neptune horse. He won his point over 3m and his debut over hurdles was 2m5f on soft. He wasn't stopping. So whilst he might have plenty of speed as well, he clearly stays very well which suggests the Neptune will be ideal. It's also noteworthy last years Tolworth winner won the Neptune.

Things may just happen a bit quick for him in the Supreme imo.
By:
eric_morris
When: 06 Jan 17 14:56
Worth taking a price for both if you like him. You dont want to have 16s or 20s for him if he ends up fav for the other race.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 06 Jan 17 16:23
Or, as per the opening post, back him at 12's any race. I've had a bit extra on in the Neptune just to try and get some 20's too.
By:
eric_morris
When: 06 Jan 17 17:31
Ladbrokes just knocked me back to 1/10th my requested stake on an antepost Cheltenham treble including Finians Oscar. Didnt take it total insult.

Wouldnt waste time going to them for Festival bets.
By:
eric_morris
When: 06 Jan 17 17:37
Thats great Hills just accomodated me for all of my stake.
By:
eric_morris
When: 07 Jan 17 10:35
Have him both races at the Festival looking forward to today. The markets have been leaning towards Neptune.

Watching the replay of Capitaine and the proximity of the second and third behind him makes you think Finians will be able to sit near him and kick past late on todays ground. The ground will hopefully compensate for the drop in trip if staying turns out to be his forte over speed.
By:
Ibrahima Sonko
When: 07 Jan 17 14:30
Machine Love
By:
unclepuncle
When: 07 Jan 17 14:32
Won well enough but I can't  say he looked a Cheltenham winner today.
By:
duffy
When: 07 Jan 17 14:36
Agree with uncle, won well but not machine..esqueGrin
By:
eric_morris
When: 07 Jan 17 14:40
Neptune written all over him today must admit. He kills them with that burst from two out. Doubt you will find a novice more suited to the hill he can wind the pace up at the Festival from the bottom turn what can get past him with that combination of stamina and speed. Reminds me of another Neptune horse The New One.
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 07 Jan 17 14:40
Hes decent, hes good. happy with my 20s neptune 12s any Excited get my portfolio and neptune book off to a great start


EVENT    SELECTION    PRICE    E/W TERMS    RESULT    STATUS
Neptune Novices Hurdle Cheltenham Ante Post 2017 Horse Racing Outright - Race    Finians Oscar    20/1    EW1/5 1,2,3    None    Unsettled
Bet ID: 68698711000 09:53 Bet Type: Single Stake: £ ****
By:
duffy
When: 07 Jan 17 14:42
You're supposed to put that up after it's won the ruddy raceGrin
By:
charlieptl
When: 07 Jan 17 14:51
Delighted to have taken 16/1 in the Neptune as opposed to backing at 13/8 today. Had him as captain in SS as well. Happy days.
By:
impossible123
When: 07 Jan 17 16:00
Finian's Oscar was good today and deservedly won but I'd still need to see more before backing him at 6/1 for the Neptune at Cheltenham as I believe he did not beat much, and the 2nd, Capitaine, was inconvenienced by the ground and a change in tactic that did not work n my opinion.

I'm still siding with Messire Des Obeaux and Ballyandy for the Neptune.
By:
rl91
When: 07 Jan 17 16:02
Wasn't all that impressed today, won well but flattered thanks to the mistake by Capitaine

Would want to see it run again before picking it over a Death Duty for example
By:
Quevega06
When: 07 Jan 17 16:37
Have to disagree with Uncle @& Duffy that looked a serious performance . Capitaine never liked the ground but Finians will be better on Good to Soft he didn't seem to like it either. I'd happily take 6s for the Neptune if NRNB was available .
By:
Quevega06
When: 07 Jan 17 16:38
Unless Mullins unleashes something ....
By:
charlieptl
When: 07 Jan 17 16:49
Was a big step up today and he won well I would say.
By:
Quevega06
When: 07 Jan 17 16:52
Whoever has the 20/1 vouchers will be very happy. DD wins easy tomorrow and Elliott will be saying Albert is the plan
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 07 Jan 17 18:44
@Duffy i know lol but i was struggling to find the big voucher this year and now i've got it, just has to win now. Last years was Sprinter Sacre @ 25/1 Tongue Out


At everyone crabbing the current price, can see it being a 6/1 shot on the day tbh cos the irish will have one and they generally get over bet. It was a serious performance though and i haven't thrown my Capitaine slip for supreme in the bin either. Obviously didn't go on the ground and back to the tactics when he won last time although will surely be a 16-20/1 poke on the day if making the race still holds an average chance imo.

I haven't got a handle on DD, think he's potato bound though judging by the market on here at least. I backed Messire for the neptune in the week also though only at 12s.

Starting to look forwards to that 2nd week in March now, and the wife is about to start holiday hunting again Shocked I keep telling her, THEY AINT FERKING WON YET CrazyLaugh
By:
impossible123
When: 07 Jan 17 21:34
Lucky you with a 20/1 voucher, I could not not have it on my book hence done a small multiple at 6/1 just now. To be honest I'd prefer Finian's Oscar in the Supreme as it is a weaker race and he seemed to travel easily over 16f in the race today unless Defi Du Seuil turns up unexpectedly.

Whichever race he eventually runs in I'd need at least one more race before Finian's Oscar could be considered a betting proposition at 6/1 or less, but well done with 20/1!
By:
duffy
When: 07 Jan 17 23:43
Looking at the race again it was ultimately inconclusive and maybe a little deceiving particularly with the move made by FO as it was accentuated visually by the mistake made by the 2nd and the subsequent head in the air by the 2nd when the jockey panicked thereafter. Capitaine was travelling easily himself 2 out and I think the jockey may have panicked a bit as he noticed FO with the quick fast forward which then contributed to the horse's mistake.

Capitaine is definitely gawky and looks like he needs a bit of winding up and was actually going on well again at the end, look at him right after the mistake lose all momentum and look booked for 3rd at least, compare it then to how he finishes the race off.
By:
eric_morris
When: 08 Jan 17 00:13
If Capitaine had made the running on the ground he wouldnt have been second imo. The jockey saved a bit for the finish . Finians Oscar fiddled the last and lost momentum but impressed in the way he picked up again. Think Finians Oscar will need the Neptune trip on good Cheltenham ground to assert his speed stamina advantage over the field. Over 2 m he could get done for toe late on on good ground.
By:
nocturnal
When: 08 Jan 17 19:05
Fair shout those who put him up before yesterday.

Any clockwatchers got valid times for saturdays 2m races?

RP times giving out the 2m juvenile race,1st on the card,as same time as Tolworth.

S Life give different times,Tolworth being half a second quicker.

Whichever way,the times suggest that was not the strongest of grade 1 races.

Would not give up on the 2nd just yet.

Plenty time between now and march,FO has potential,5/1 for neptune? at this stage.
By:
Ibrahima Sonko
When: 08 Jan 17 22:17
Times were not good but he had the race won 2 out.

The price is way too short on what he has achieved so far but the uk hurdlers are the worst for many a year and i dont think the irish are that strong this year either. Might see a shock or 2 this cheltenham.

Im still not convinced by Death Duty, Wins but doesnt do it like a superstar or even a star. But by shantou he will like better ground. Still keeping my eye out for a mullins horse, it might be Bravissimo or a n other.
By:
duffy
When: 09 Jan 17 14:07
Aha..someone else who's noticed Bravissimo Cool
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 09 Jan 17 14:39
Surprised at the lack of praise on here myself.

For a horse to do that on only his second start over hurdles against some much more experienced rivals was very taking for me. I think that was quite a strong little race, and granted the mistake Capitaine made, accentuated the ease with which he won, but he still annihilated them. Tizzard said afterwards he hadnt done that much work with him, and was worried he might not be quite ready for that test... so presumably there is plenty more to come.

PN was fulsome in his praise of Capitaine in the build up to the race, calling him a proper horse, and I don't think he is generally one for over stating the ability of his own.

I think he is certainly the best English novice now, and in a year where there seems to be a lack of potential superstars in Ireland, he deserves to be fav for the Neptune. I know Tizzard covered all bases regarding targets in his interview, but I will be amazed if its not the Neptune based on his two runs and his point.

The big test is going to be the ground... but I always think the best can go on anything, and his breeding certainly gives you hope he could be even better on better ground.
By:
Fallen Angel
When: 10 Jan 17 21:49
@can't catch me
Yeah i thought it was a smart performance and the money talked of a good horse in the build up to the race. A little sticky over the last hurdle but he quickened up really well going to the 2nd last. Assuming coming from the PTP sphere they might think him to be better suited to 2m 4f race although I am sure the Potts would also like a shot at the supreme having had a few nice horses in it previously.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 11 Jan 17 15:12
I was probably a little harsh, and in a very ordinary looking year for novice hurdlers your 12/1 any race is certainly a lovely voucher CCM.

Be interesting to see where and over what distance they run him next time.
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 11 Jan 17 20:49
I have a feeling finians Oscar next outing will be a egg and spoon novice hurdle race over 2m5f. He was entered for a race over that distance at Wincanton same day as the Tolworth. That is unless he goes str8 to the fez.
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 11 Jan 17 20:49
I too have 12s any and 20s Neptune lol
By:
impossible123
When: 11 Jan 17 21:07
Out of interest may I ask how did you manage to get such juicy prices and when?
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 11 Jan 17 21:19
Prices were widely available when I started this thread.
By:
jedi sophie
When: 11 Jan 17 22:00
Horse was still double figures for neptune on morning of Tolworth 123....are you doubting the chaps vouchers??tut tut!!

I had a score at 15.5 on 6th,day before for example!
By:
impossible123
When: 12 Jan 17 17:44
Why would I? I've never begrudged another person's of their good fortune.

I like Finian's Oscar in the Supreme but not the Neptune; it is unlikely he'll do battle with Death Duty in the Albert Bartlett either.
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