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wellchief
28 Dec 16 13:20
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Date Joined: 17 Dec 09
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This race is starting to take shape now.  Bellshill looks a different animal once upped to 3m and two nice chasing performances this year; Coney Island only found Bellshill too good at Punchestown last year and a good winner of the Drinmore; Alpha Des Obeaux surely over a trip too short last time and back up to 3m tomorrow, Might Bite would have been a runaway winner of the Feltham but for his fall and Bleu Et Rouge came from a mile back before and looks a strong stayer and is 33/1 top price is huge imo.

Looking like a good race if these all get there sound.

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Replies: 240
By:
SoYouThink
When: 30 Dec 16 13:10
Alpha Des Obeaux had put in a few big leaps in the 3m Grade 1 yesterday before bursting blood vessels. If he's none the worse for it, then he's still a strong contender for this.
By:
GI MAC
When: 31 Dec 16 05:52
Bellshill has looked good for sure, but you have to be concerned with his two festival runs so far, I've always wondered if he looks best righ handed also.
By:
impossible123
When: 31 Dec 16 14:11
Bellshill relishes a test of stamina and was running in the wrong races at Cheltenham previously.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 31 Dec 16 20:10
agree with you on bleu et rouge cheif have been looking at his profile and runs over hurdles last season ,  raced in top company the win in the grade 1  delottie hurdle was a very good run had some good horses behind  ,bellshill ,coney island ,petit mouchir ,very lightly raced and hopefull that a step up  trip will bring out more improvement ,liked the way he made up a good amount of ground off the home turn and ran on well and won which didnt seem likely 2 out  , have backed him for the rsa at around 33s ,should be a lot more to come .
By:
impossible123
When: 08 Jan 17 21:04
No taker for Bellshill and he has been matched at 9.8 here. Anything untoward?
By:
Quevega06
When: 08 Jan 17 21:18
bleu et roug Or Our Duke for me at this early stage. Our Duke needs good ground and a test of stamina thought he stayed on really well after a few sloppy jumps
By:
duffy
When: 10 Jan 17 16:19
I was amazed how Our Duke managed to win with those mistakes but he looked to have bundles of energy through the race and still found at the end, I'd be all over him if he was in the 4 miler. Bellshill just looks all class and won the other day with his head in his chest relatively speaking, loved the way he jumped the 2nd last half a length down and had scooted 2 clear almost as soon as he had touched down the other side.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 11 Jan 17 21:23
have added mullins /ricci french import benie des dieux at 170 on here also have her for the jlt  who probably beat little but jumped and travelled well, 5 yo mare who had 3 races on the flat in france winning 1 , has gone straight over fences.
By:
impossible123
When: 18 Jan 17 20:15
Apparently Might Bite would have recorded a time comparable to Thistlecrack when he took a heavy fall at Kempton on Boxing Day. Any further news about him, and possible target for Cheltenham? I notice he is about 12/1 for the RSA.
By:
gnashersblackpool
When: 18 Jan 17 20:45
micheal buckley said he was sore after his fall and would take time to mend in interview with chapman monday night on  the line.
By:
impossible123
When: 18 Jan 17 22:30
Much appreciated!
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 19 Jan 17 06:09
didnt know  buckley owned might bite ! part owner ?
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 28 Jan 17 09:02
Hi Nicky, MIGHT BITE looked sensational last time until falling, have you ironed out his jumping and will he handle Cheltenham?

Things are going well again! He’s just been around the indoor school and you won’t see anything jump as well as him in your life. He hasn’t seen a steeple chase fence since Kempton but he’s done plenty inside and we’re just trying to keep him happy and give him confidence to do his own thing and he has been very good. The acid test will be when he has to jump a proper fence again. He was quite sore after his fall so we had to tinker with him for a fortnight or so but he’s over all that now and I just need to get a run into him as I’d hate to go into the RSA off the back of that fall. Who knows, me might even leave Cheltenham out of it this year, I don’t know. It’s been frustrating lately because we can’t school on the grass because of the frost but it’s set to be better next week so we should be able to get him going and we’ll step his work up too. He looks good and is moving well so will hopefully get his career back on track before long.
By:
liberator of the oppressed
When: 28 Jan 17 09:09
Might leave Cheltenham this year. Bonkers. This is a machine RSA at it's mercy I say RSA at it's mercy.
By:
duffy
When: 28 Jan 17 16:18
Don't know about that, he wouldn't be the first horse to whizz around Kempton on a boxing day only to see a different story come Cheltenham. Royal Vacation certainly gave the form a boost today though. Bellshill will be tough to beat IMO.
By:
twonky
When: 29 Jan 17 10:53
Personally, I thought Might Bite was starting to come to the end of his tether 2 out in the Feltham, drifting left at the 2nd last and just not seeing the final flight..not convinced he's in love with Cheltenham either. Providing Henderson can get a run into him, then the novice chase over 20f at Aintree would be my idea.
By:
Graeme83
When: 09 Feb 17 14:30
Might bite did it easily enough there. There are some things to iron out, but the ability is obvious.
By:
Jb23
When: 09 Feb 17 14:56
I have a slight inclination that Might Bite could be a little bit of a flat track bully. Asides from winning an egg and spoon novice hurdle at Cheltenham in the spring of 2015 it seems he has only really run at flat tracks. Of his 10 career runs 60% have been at Newbury, Kempton or Doncaster which leaves me of the impression that maybe where he may be more at home. I have no idea if he does prefer a flatter track, but thats my angle of taking him on in 5 weeks time. I guess it would also be worth noting that in 2 of his trips to Cheltenham he hasnt necessarily handled the hill that well (hung right & weakened badly). Something like the Mildmay at Aintree would be close to being his perfect race for me atm.
By:
Autocue
When: 09 Feb 17 15:04
I wouldn't take Might Bite on, though the angle you have is his jumping imo as he wasn't put under pressure in that schooling round today. The idiotic Daryl Jacob put him under pressure (unnecessarily) at Kempton and he fell.
By:
impossible123
When: 09 Feb 17 15:18
I think Ruby on Bellshill will allow Might Bite to bowl along infront and gradually creep up with 2/3 fences to go; if Might Bite could sustain the same tempo to the last fence and jumps it infront like he did at Kempton he'd have an excellent chance of winning the RSA, I believe.
By:
twonky
When: 09 Feb 17 17:10
Saw the same again as we did in the feltham, wandered  at the second last. His jumping over 2 mile was superb. Forget RSA, put him away. He is a crack 2m 4f horse..next years, Monets Garden, Peterbourough or Ascot chase filled by the Melling at Aintree are perfect.

With that pace and exuberance, he looks more like an Arkle horse this year to me.
By:
chelters16
When: 09 Feb 17 20:18
For those who who believe that Might bite is either a flat track bully or a doubtful stayer,there are bits and pieces available around 6.0 in the lay column....easy money?
By:
Fallen Angel
When: 09 Feb 17 21:49
Apart from the fact that when you take out all the likely non-runners that the RSA market is currently massively over-broke. Its been the case for weeks now, if you want to lay the horse, personally I don't but your be able to lay a lot shorter than 6.0
By:
liberator of the oppressed
When: 10 Feb 17 05:38
Game over wins RSA by half the track Mighty is an incredible animal have a look close up.
By:
wellchief
When: 11 Feb 17 08:51
I'd personally put Might Bite in the JLT, and I think he'd have a great chance of winning it (although I fully expect him to be in the RSA).

Sounds silly, but I think he might have too much speed for an RSA, to tend to be won by dour stayers who will grind it out up the hill.  If you look at the 6 winners of the JLT since it stopped becoming the Jewson Handicap: Sir Des Champs, Taquin de Seuill, Vautour and Black Hercules are all 2.5m who stay really well and have the blend of speed and stamina - I think Might Bite would fit into that category well.

Coney Island would probably be my RSA choice at the minute, but he could easily end up in the JLT too.  Have to admit to being pretty disappointed with Alpha Des Obeaux over fences.  Maybe he was flattered behind Thistlecrack or he isn't as good a chaser as hurdler?

Some of his races have been over too short a trip, but I think his jumping has been sketchy and has sometimes made hard work of beating lesser opposition, and burst a blood vessel last time out.  I've not given up on him, every chance he will peak in March, but it's a bit of a leap of faith that he can reverse the form with Coney Island, and then finish in front of Might Bite and Bellshill.
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 11 Feb 17 13:55
I hope not wellchief as i've backed both at reasonably decent prices for the rsa Scared
By:
impossible123
When: 11 Feb 17 13:59
I think Might Bite is a RSA and not JLT as he has the stamina to out-jump and last out any in this race. However, in the JLT there could be several eg Coney Island, a good jumper but 3m could stretch his stamina to the limit especially the last two fences.
Top Notch is a good bet with/out Yorkhill in the JLT though.
By:
Jb23
When: 11 Feb 17 18:01

Feb 9, 2017 -- 3:18PM, chelters16 wrote:


For those who who believe that Might bite is either a flat track bully or a doubtful stayer,there are bits and pieces available around 6.0 in the lay column....easy money?


I dont tend to lay on the more longer term markets, just that is the angle of trying to get one of the favourites beat and find some juice elsewhere. Guess thats just the method I use when punting. Probably why I am no good!

By:
impossible123
When: 12 Feb 17 17:06
A strange run by Bellshill. The distance was a bit short notwithstanding still a shocker; if sound and still RSA bound he is available at 16/1 (nrnb).
By:
delsie777
When: 12 Feb 17 17:35
I thought Bellshill had to run well today but he was poor. With his Cheltenham record suggesting that he's unlikely to spark into life there, surely Mite Bite is a stand out in this race? He'll make it a test and I don't see anything staying well enough to trouble him. Disko looked to be coming to the end of his tether over a shorter trip today. Coney Island was outstayed by Our Duke the last day - and Our Duke is missing the gig! Bleu Et Rouge has the engine but always chucks one in, so, barring a fall, what can possibly go wrong?
By:
buddeliea
When: 12 Feb 17 17:38
Alpha des obeaux
By:
delsie777
When: 12 Feb 17 17:39
Once a bleeder...
By:
buddeliea
When: 12 Feb 17 17:41
Well if you aint backed him, you best hope he does bleed again, in my opinion
By:
delsie777
When: 12 Feb 17 17:50
Yeah I backed him earlier in the year when he was running well but I can't have him now. But as you're so confident, I'll hang on to the slip, bud - just in case. If this Mite Bite jumps round I think he's too good for the rest.
By:
buddeliea
When: 12 Feb 17 18:00
Yeh hang on to it mate,he was jumping all over then last time till the bleed.
Yes he could bleed again, but I aint not backing him cos of that.
Mind you Might Bite looks a fair animal I grant you that.
By:
wellchief
When: 12 Feb 17 18:03
Shame Our Duke won't be running in the RSA, but respect Harrigton for looking at the bigger picture, as it can be a brutal race for a novice.  He'll be on my Gold Cup radar next year.

Still like Coney Island for this, despite backing him NRNB for the JLT; the form of the 3m G1 at Leopardstown at Christmas would have put him bang there today - I think he'll go to Cheltenham a fresh horse and will be difficult to beat whatever race he lines up in - I think the trio of Our Duke, Coney Island and Disko are strong.

I'd be all over Our Duke if he was running.
By:
delsie777
When: 12 Feb 17 18:07
Would you take those three over Mite Bite and Alpha, Chief?
By:
wellchief
When: 12 Feb 17 18:14
Alpha hasn't convinced me over fences Delsie.  He has the right profile for this race, and Giggi runners always need to be treated with respect in the RSA, but the fact he bled last time and was behind Coney Island before that makes me think he might not be good enough - we need to ask was he flattered behind Thistlecrack last year?

Mite Bite looks a seriously good one, but thesr 'flashy types' often get beat in the RSA - I'd include More of That, Grands Crus, Long Run etc in recent memory like that - they were all perceived the 'class horse in the race' and the speediest/strongest travellers, but it is often a dour, hard stayer who wins this.
By:
delsie777
When: 12 Feb 17 18:20
I'm not sure about Disko being a dour stayer, Chief. I thought he was all out over 2m5f today albeit after setting a good gallop. I wonder if he's more of a Vautour-like JLT winner? Getting out there and attacking the race? Our Duke WOULD have worried me if he had gone to the RSA.
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