Cheltenham Festival
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BRAIN POWER looks fair value at around 25s , with the right connections and improving hand over fist ,impressive last 2 starts beating good handicappers giving weight to most,, and will be suited by the pace of a fast run champion hurdle ,needs to find upwards of 10 pound but could well do so judging by his ascot win where he dotted up ,a few question marks with those at the top of the betting and this could be a lot shorter come the day ,selection champion hurdle BRAIN POWER 25 /1 each way MOST BOOKS ,good luck
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hendo said after brain powers latest win "it was a serious performance with that weight " he is learning ,he as grown up a bit since last season ,it will be excitng where to go next ,you could say the betfair hurdle at newbury but the handicapper could have his say,
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Say Annie Power and Faugheen don't turn up, it looks a thin year doesn't it?
A 'Make A Stand' kind of year...A 'Brain Power' kind of year. I wonder if, in the event of the above scenario whether the Pipes might even aim Moon Racer at the CH? |
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Yorkhill kind of year more like
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Arctic Fire
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I've thrown a few quid at the total dog that is L'ami Serge @ 80 in the hope it's soft going. Won the Tolworth and was 2nd fav behind Douvan in the Supreme but jumped the first few badly and never got in contention.
Unless they run him in the Champion Chase I don't see what else he can go for as he doesn't stay the 2m5f of the JLT - maybe they could drop to handicaps and look at the Grand Annual or County? |
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^Ryanair - not JLT.
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brain powers best runs have been at right handed tracks ,a slight concern, but he has won 2 from 2 is going the right way and can certainly travel in a fast run race ,the ascot win was in a very decent time .
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Yes took some 25s about 3 days after he romped in last time about Brain Power.
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L'ami Serge is no dog over hurdles, just a bit of a dodgy fencer; he toyed with Killultagh Vic and Emerging Talent in the 2014 Supreme Trial. He ran a very good race at the weekend but was caught out by the distance - he just does not stay 20f.
I think he'd have given Douvan a scare in the Supreme but for a bad start; I also think he could be better than his stablemate, Peace and Co, and the latter was deemed good enough to run in the Champion Hurdle against Annie Power (AP); no AP or Faugheen the Champion Hurdle is wide open, and at least 5 could win it. |
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The champion hurdle is a very weak race outside of Faugheen and Annie Power. Petit Mouchoir will remind a lot of people of Identity Thief last season (similiar profile, same connections) but he'd be the one for me if the big guns failed to show. He showed a nice turn of foot to beat Nichols Canyon who, as yardsticks go, would be a fairly reliable one!
I'd also rather have say Yanworth or Ivanovich Gorbatov before I'd take ex-handicappers like Brain Power, Superb Story or Ch'Tibello. The few times the champion hurdle has cut up a bit, the race has still being won by a horse who was a consistent G1 runner, e.g. Sublimity, Punjabi, Rock On Ruby, Annie Power. The reality is though it is probably a worse race than last year so if Faugheen or Annie Power are any way fit, it's theirs for the taking. |
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If Annie Power goes for the Mares Hurdle one could only deduce she has not progressed - I believe she worked below par recently prior to being scratched from an intended engagement. As for Faugheen the injury that deprived him from defending his crown was a sore suspensory ligament, was it not? A year off is a very long time and unlikely he'd have improved since; if Cheltenham is his 1st run back it is a massive disadvantage and probably a concern for backers......it could recur, I believe.
I cannot have any of the seasoned handicappers winning the Champion Hurdle either - Make A Stand won an extraordinary poor renewal - even if the big guns are absent; I think one of the juveniles or L'ami Serge could emerge to take the crown. |
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I don't believe there's a big 2. If Faugheen gets there anywhere close to his best, then the others are running for places. If he doesn't make it there and Annie runs instead, then she's beatable. She may well win but she would be no cert over a trip short of her best. WPM will win it with something though. Arctic Fire could be interesting if he comes back and Ivan Grozny could be the real deal this year.
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I tend to agree that if Annie Power goes for the Mares, then it's a negative as regards deducing her overall well-being. I do not see the point of keeping her in training as a 9 year old to win a Mares Hurdle, when she's the current champion hurdler. Even if Faugheen ended up being the stable number one, why run Annie Power in the Mares when you've already got Vroum Vroum Mag and Limini for that?
I would say L'Ami Serge is 'interesting' but no more than that. He's very much a speculative bet at this stage and I couldn't see a strong reason to back him ahead of the likes of Petit Mouchoir and Yanworth who are now the standard bearers for the race. The juveniles have been disappointing this season - as per usual. The trio that ran in the Festival Hurdle finished 3rd, 4th and 5th without ever threatening. They have a lot to make up on the likes of Petit Mouchoir and Nichols Canyon. |
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Yorkhill should definitely go Champion route - he's better than Annie and a returning from injury Faugheen.
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Anybody seen Limini?
Does n't seem long ago since Ruby was raving about her flat handicap mark and there was talk of Royal Ascot. Not been sighted since last day of April at Punchestown... The quotes from one of Arctic Fire's owners earlier in the week did n't fill me with confidence that he'd make the festival either. If I had to bet now I'd be sorely tempted by Nichols Canyon. |
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Has any unsuccessful juvenile chaser run into a place in the Champion Hurdle post a season over fences?; L'ami Serge was a very decent hurdler,...the only blot was a bad start and then hampered badly in the Supreme won by Douvan (2/1) - he was only 7/2 for the race. But I'm glad connections revert him back to hurdles.
I'm certainly not a fan of Yanworth whose participation here is solely due to the excellence of Unowhatimeanharry for the Stayers Hurdle. If Altior goes for this he'll probably win it, possibly with Faugheen and Annie Power in it too - he is just so good! I agree about Annie Power, but connections are more interested in winning races regardless especially at Cheltenham; Vroum Vroum Mag has no target race of her own but clearly is a substitute for the Mares, Stayers, Ryanair and Gold Cup races. |
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If AP and Faugheen both don't turn up I would expect to see Yorkhill running....and winning IMO.
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SoYouThink
06 Jan 17 21:09 I would say L'Ami Serge is 'interesting' but no more than that. He's very much a speculative bet at this stage and I couldn't see a strong reason to back him ahead of the likes of Petit Mouchoir and Yanworth who are now the standard bearers for the race. The fact he was available at 80/1 as oppossed to 10/1 and 5/1 was a 'strong' enough reason for me.  |
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Petit Mouchoir was rated below L'ami Serge on hurdle form but now the former is 10/1 for the Champion Hurdle. If the latter had not been campaigned over fences last season - he just could not jump competitively nor stay 20f - he'd be much shorter than he currently is for the Champion Hurdle given the doubts surrounding Faugheen and Annie Power.
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Petit Mouchoir according to Mullins last season he used to lose his race before it even started due to freeness & pulling . Personally the way he dismissed Nicholas Canyon I think 10/1 is a cracking ew bet. It's a false market with Annie & Faugheen joint favs
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The latest news about Faugheen (apparently) is he has not been 'sparkling' in his work lately. This was in total contrast to Mullins who was quoted to be happy with the Champion pair (and Annie Power) just two days ago.
No doubt more fun and games from connections between now and Cheltenham which is just nine weeks away. |
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Annie will win it ,end of story.FORGET ABOUT THE RACE lads,
its a load of plodders against the greatest hurdler of all time and she has a half a stone allowance. |
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annies going to the mares already decided according to some irishman on the racing post podcast
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Annie will win the mares if she even goes to Cheltenham
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All this will they won't they i think its blatantly obvious that WPM and co are stringing the public along as they usually do. If there was no chance Faugheen was getting to Chelters he'd be readily being laid on here, he's not. AP has been shortening in the mares race. Mullin's senior says one thing, RW says another then Patrick comes out with what he's said these last couple days yet no real market jitters after
 Those of us on the Faugheen Chdl, AP mares, Uno stayers 53/1 treble i think can sit pretty that on the lead up to the Irish Churdle we can comfortably lay off our treble stake. I've also done the double at 15.75/1  |
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I see market jitters over night with a couple spikes on the graph to 5
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The New One has drifted out again, are there doubts about participation? I can't see any other races for him and he loves Cheltenham
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there's been some talk of the stayers hurdle for The New One from both Carl Llewellyn and STD - not heard anything from NTD or the owners though
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^ latest quote on The New One from NTD in today's Racing Post Pricewise Champion Hurdle preview:
'The Champion Hurdle is the target but I have n't discussed it with the owners.He'll have an entry for that and the Stayers' Hurdle but I think he'll probably go for the Champion. We're looking at the Haydock race later this month that he has used for each of the last two years and then hopefully he'll go from there to the festival.' Other snippets which were news to me at least: Sceau Royal was 'wrong' when he came back from the Fighting Fifth (King quite bullish about him) Altior won't have an entry Peace and Co is back in work! |
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cheers rease,havent read his write up ,what were his or trainers veiws of some of the others ,mullins,king on yanworth ,hendo non brain power skelton etc ,thanks in advance
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I'll just keep to the specifics - nothing new from Mullins on Faugheen,AP and VVM. Ivan Grozny has Red Mills Hurdle at Gowran Park next month as an option - no mention of Nicholls Canyon (which I thought was strange).Yanworth good and goes for Contenders Hurdle according to King where he could meet Brain Power according to Henderson. Skelton will enter Ch'tibello and Superb Story but they'll both have entries in County Hurdle too - Superb Story will go straight to the Festival but Ch'tibello could go to Wincanton for the Kingwell Hurdle first.
L'Ami Serge will probably take on The New One at Haydock (Henderson quite bullish about him too). Petit Mouchoir will go for Irish Champion Hurdle and de Bromhead 'delighted' with him. I think the upcoming UK trials will be quite informative in terms of establishing the pecking order this side of the Irish Sea but whether anything emerges which is good enough to beat the Irish contenders is another story. |
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thanks very much rease, interesting!
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Yanworth very weak on here last 12-18 hours hope all is well
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yeah i noticed that seathestars, was thinking it may just be the money for others causing it to ease a bit but a bit worrying for supporters of the horse ,
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I think after looking again and thinking about it it's just the market putting itself right after additions as apples jade, peace n co etc. Still 110% as it was last night so with the additions somethings have had to drift a little, even faugheen is out to 4 from 3.65
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Come 28th Jan 2017 Faugheen would have been off the track for over 12 months due to a sore suspensory ligament even if he turns up for the Irish Champion Hurdle; he has had several missed appointments since then for various reasons; just recently, it was reported he had not been sparkling in his work; he is also getting older.
Yet he is only 4/7 (with-a-run) for the Irish Champion Hurdle, and between (15/8 and 3/1) only for the English equivalent - how absurd is that? For a horse that has been off for nearly a year thro' injury, missed several appointments and extremely unlikely to improve because of age, his price borders on madness. I'd rather back Thistlecrack at evens for the GC, and this represents better value than Faugheen. I think Faugheen is trading on past achievements and connections. |
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Excellent past achievements and excellent connections though. Hurricane fly had an identical injury.
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It's also a very weak Champion. I'd say a 80% fit Faugheen would probably win. Definitely a 90% fit version.
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