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Paterson92
18 Dec 16 18:52
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Date Joined: 02 Sep 14
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Another Mullins hype/talking horse. Still 3rd favourite for the Supreme and hasn't been seen as of yet. Also shorter with most firms than anything he has unleashed so far.

Mullins is either short on ammunition compared to previous years or this could be the one.

This horse is out of Medicean, doesn't scream Supreme winner to me. Anyone able to shed some light?

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Replies: 161
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 18 Dec 16 18:56
Wonder if it's something to do with the fact a few talking horses have disappointed, so by process of elimination people move on to the next potential one?

But I did hear that Rich Ricci offered the owners big money for the horse and they turned it down. Which must be a positive.
By:
Paterson92
When: 18 Dec 16 19:16
Interesting, first time I've heard that. Last I heard he had picked up a niggle around October but was expected to show face some time around Christmas.

Sky Bet are NRNB for the Supreme and have him quoted at 14/1.

Bruce Millington tweeted on the 8th September something along the lines of "Melon, remember the name".
By:
Paterson92
When: 18 Dec 16 21:34
Or to be more precise, his tweet actually read:

"First Cheltenham 2017 bet just placed: Melon in the Supreme. You've been told."
By:
jedi sophie
When: 19 Dec 16 19:12
Millington no doubt accomodated at a price and for a stake none of the rest of us would manage!
Head halfway up bookmakers behinds.Using his position for ill gotten gains!
By:
Hubert
When: 20 Dec 16 13:40
I see the likes of Timi Roli have been entered in maidens over Christmas. Melon's sole entry remains the the Grade one..

Either a positive or a very very negative!!
By:
JackieMoon33
When: 20 Dec 16 15:10
Melon has been taken out the declarations for the Grade One race so it's a negative all round.
By:
Paterson92
When: 20 Dec 16 18:32
Realistically he was never going to be thrown in at this level without a run. Would expect to see him out soon in a maiden to be honest.
By:
Hubert
When: 20 Dec 16 22:20
Fact that he's been taken out of the grade one doesnt worry me. He's not entered in the Maidens over xmas either though. Cant see Mullins rushing him to the festival if he cant make it out by the New Year
By:
Paterson92
When: 15 Jan 17 00:32
Source - Irish Independent 13/01

Melon, one of the talking horses of Willie Mullins' yet to see combat this term, is nearing a much-awaited run.

The French-bred came off the Flat and has won over a mile and a half. He has long been 16/1 for the Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle, in which Mullins has a stunning recent record.

"He is in better form, having just had a few little niggles," Mullins said. "There's enough talk about him anyway! He is nice though, I like him. I need to get him out as I don't want to wait another year as a novice with him. He'll be running very soon I'd say."

The trainer says he "wouldn't even like to contemplate Vroum Vroum Mag's target at the moment" but, if she does not run in the Sun Bets Stayers' Hurdle, he may have a lively alternative in Clondaw Warrior.
The Galway Hurdle winner chased the mare home at Leopardstown and is being strongly considered.

The trainer said: "He should enjoy the nice ground at Cheltenham. It's probably a very obvious thing he'd do well over three miles, given the trips he was going on the Flat. Connections are having some fun with him. Funny enough, he gets quite big between races - you wouldn't know he's been running. He has to be a bit of a dark horse for the Stayers' Hurdle."
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 15 Jan 17 08:31
Mullins moving on to the next hotpot! This one almost certain to collapse in price now as well...
By:
impossible123
When: 15 Jan 17 17:47
First it was Senewalk, then American Tom followed by Crack Mome, and now Melon, a horse not seen since Sept 2015, as the next hotpot. Could it be the WPM/RR/Wylie bubble has burst after so many false dawns this season?
By:
Smart Predator
When: 15 Jan 17 18:10
Any views on Cilaos Emery? For what I can see this is the horse from WPMs yard that has the best form by far! Beats Joey Sasa by 6l then he comes out and beats Barra who won well today. Joey sasa got beat by Brelade who ran 2l behind saturnas who has decent graded form. I might be over analysing the form but the form is there and could go on and on. To me Cilaos Emery could be by far the best novice in the yard. I thought it was curtains when he didn't run yesterday but then Crack Mome got beat! I hope he runs in the Deloitte then we`ll see how good he is.
By:
impossible123
When: 16 Jan 17 00:13
Cilaos Emery (126) is 9/1 here yet he is rated 24lb inferior to Defi Du Seuil (150); Joey Sasa was giving 3lbs and 7lbs to Cilaos Emery and and Barra respectively finishing 2nd to the former and beating the latter; Barra won a Mares only race today.

The present fav Moon Racer is on 140 with Finian's Oscar 147. On rating I think Cilaos Emery needs to improve a bundle to justify his 9/1 price.
By:
Arklearkle
When: 16 Jan 17 00:27
Impossible I dont know you from Adam and no doubt you are a decent person and I dont wish to get into an argument with you but perhaps you should contact Ricci Wylie and all the other Mullins owners and tell them you know way way more about training horses than the bould Willie and youll take all their horses and they'll all win far far more grade ones and races at Cheltenham than they currently do. Thats the sort of stuff we have been reading from you everyday day in day out.
By:
impossible123
When: 16 Jan 17 13:20
Arklerkle

With due respect if you disagree with the RPR rating of 126 and 150 for Cilaos Emery and Defi Du Seuil respectively please take it up with racing paper; if my independent and differing views to yours and some are giving you discomfort and insecurity please do not read my posts instead put me on ignore like I've done with some here, and now you.

Horse racing like most sports is not an exact science and neither is it very complex and indecipherable; it is only a game, and as such take it with a pinch of salt, maybe a big one if necessary.   

Mr Mullins and Mr Ricci are not my cup of tea when it comes to horse racing in particular their treatment of racegoers and punters. I understand they have had enjoyed enormous successes over the last few seasons because of their enormous wealth and firepower. Nevertheless, I find it tedious posters consistently putting up their horses with little or no form post the likes of Douvan and Min without considering the competitiveness of most their races and venues of performance.

I also understand Gigginstown are not everyone's cup of tea either however their removal of horses from the care of Mullins is a massive shot in the arm for horse racing and punters alike for the mere fact it not only increases competition it also increases the pleasure of racegoers that very good horses are allowed to race against one another and not "managed" as is with the case with Mullins/Ricci. And thank goodness this practice is not replicated by the super-rich owners on the flat otherwise the future prospect for horse racing and racegoers would be nothing but doom and gloom.
By:
Arklearkle
When: 16 Jan 17 19:07
Two things Impossible - it does not worry me in the least what rating the RP gives to horses because if those raters were that good they would certainly not be working for a newspaper and secondly if you for one second believe that your views give me a sense of insecurity well I'll be nice and will say no more. Its difficult to totally ignore your posts because theyre everywhere. But anyway I wish you well and as I said already you no doubt are an ok person and genuinely I hope you have a bag of winners at the festival.
By:
Fallen Angel
When: 16 Jan 17 21:30
you make a fair point on the giggi horses, certainly has been more interesting for the novice races seeing all the horses spread around, the last few years we would have a 3/1 fav for the supreme and probably a shorter price for the Neptune than the current set of prices. Feels more open although the markets are fairly weak. On the subject of Melon, still awaiting an entry, could he run Irish Champion hurdle weekend in a maiden race, would give him 6 weeks before cheltenham, otherwise its two fairly quick runs.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 19 Jan 17 14:06
Has an entry at Gowran next Thursday. Still chance to become the WPM Supreme hotpot.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 20 Jan 17 09:25
Interview with Harold Kirk in the RP today.

Which purchase of yours yet to race are you most looking forward to seeing race?

Melon.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 20 Jan 17 10:23
Bets price 16/1 on Betfair Sportbook (shorter on the exchange) and with Paddy Power which is slightly off putting.Confused
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 20 Jan 17 10:29
Yes thought same uncle. Taken a bit at 12/1 NRNB
By:
dj876
When: 20 Jan 17 12:02
There is surely a fair chance that his novice status will be kept for next year.

Even if he was to run and win impressively in a maiden hurdle at Gowran, this would hardly entitle him to be a hotpot in an admittedly weak looking supreme.

Vautour was a grade one winner prior to the festival and won the supreme at 7/2

Douvan was a grade 2 winner prior to the festival and won the supreme at 2/1

Champagne Fever was a grade 1 winner prior to the festival and won the supreme at 5/1

Min was a grade 2 winner prior to going off at 15/8 last year

Faugheen was a graded winner and won the neptune at 6/4.

IF melon was to run and win a maiden hurdle impressively at Gowran next week would this entitle him to be a hotpot in an admittedly weak looking supreme?

He's more likely to run in next year's supreme than this one.

In 07 Ebaziyan did win the supreme after winning a February maiden hurdle but at 40/1.

NRNB = Fair enough but from a neutral perspective to be talking about him becoming a festival hotpot is very unlikely for me.
By:
buddeliea
When: 23 Jan 17 12:42
I also understand Gigginstown are not everyone's cup of tea either however their removal of horses from the care of Mullins is a massive shot in the arm for horse racing and punters alike for the mere fact it not only increases competition it also increases the pleasure of racegoers that very good horses are allowed to race against one another and not "managed" as is with the case with Mullins/Ricci. And thank goodness this practice is not replicated by the super-rich owners on the flat otherwise the future prospect for horse racing and racegoers would be nothing but doom and gloom.

Impossible
totally agree with you there, a real shot in the arm for us fans, now all we need is for Mr Ricci to show us how much he loves to see top horses competing with each other at their best distance.
By:
impossible123
When: 24 Jan 17 10:22
These are the recommendations of another racing parasite ie Matt Brocklebank for Cheltenham eg:-

1) Cilaos Emery - 10/1 for the Supreme citing the beating of Joey Sasa, the conqueror of Barra (a winner of a weak mares
                  only maiden race) and potential to shorten considerably
2) Coney Island - 12/1 for the RSA. but dissing Bellshill citing the latter's dismal previous visits to Cheltenham and
                  his preference for deep winter ground.

With due respect to Mr Brocklebank the present form of Cilaos Emery does not justify his prominence at the top-end of the Supreme
betting market; 10/1 is already too short, and on rating is well behind the majority of the probable runners in the Supreme and Triumph on more concrete form and experience and whose participation, if confirmed, could/should precede Cilaos Emery in the betting market.

Coney Island is 12/1 for the RSA because he is not a confirmed runner (could run in the JLT); already beaten by Bellshill, Haymount and Our Duke (all very likely RSA bound) despite leading after jumping the last in a 24f race to the last aforementioned.

Bellshill was running in an appropriate distance ue 2m in his two previous visits to Cheltenham ie 16f, and had won and finished 2nd at Punchestown and Aintree respectively post Cheltenham over 24f (not 16f).

I firmly believe Mr Brocklebank has come to these recommendations blinded by prices only, and not given form and/or probable (targets).
By:
unclepuncle
When: 24 Jan 17 13:42
Well the week before Mr Brocklebank advised Sizing John @ 25/1 for the Ryanair and Jezki @ 14/1 for the Stayers who are both now half that price or less, so I'd rather listen to / read his thoughts than yours.
By:
duffy
When: 24 Jan 17 14:34
When attempting to weigh up novices obviously at the start of their careers I don't try too hard trying to weigh up the ins and outs of the modest amount of form on offer, rather I simply try to see that in the few performances we get, visually does anything sort of give you that X factor. I thought Cilaos Emery was very impressive on debut, he travelled easily in the lead and when challenged simply opened up again with no fuss at all, he's my choice for the Supreme at this stage.
By:
impossible123
When: 24 Jan 17 16:58
I do not dispute Cilaos Emery could eventually turn out to be very good but he would need to beat horses much better than Joey Sasa to warrant his position at the top-end of the Supreme betting market; I think the two best from connections are Meri Devie and Bapaume.

Coney Island is a good horse but Bellshill, Might Bite and Our Duke to name three are better, and the prices of the last two named are pretty similar to that of Coney Island too for the RSA.

Jezki was a brave call, and his current price for the Stayers is justified after winning his 1st run back from injury despite being off the track for nearly two years - it could so easily have gone the same way as Don Cossack.

The market for the Ryanair is still fairly unstable and could change suddenly too as even the leader UDS could be rerouted to the Champion Chase if Douvan is absent; no doubt Gigginstown and Mullins will have a big say post the Irish Gold Cup.

I would applaud and give credit and kudos to anyone here rather than a racing journalist/tipster who advises/recommends selections correctly by the end of december because "we" are playing with our own money unlike the parasites/affiliates of the horse racing/gambling industry; I also wish these journos would declare what their "personal" positions are regards their selections.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 24 Jan 17 20:03
That's a bit rich coming from someone who promised to leave the forum and stop gambling if Found won the Arc.Devil
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 24 Jan 17 20:16
Back on topic melon now also entered in a maiden hdl at leopardstown on Saturday. Among those entries is jetz a new comers from the Harrington stable.
By:
Joist
When: 24 Jan 17 21:35
There is nothing quite so ignorant as certainty when talking about novices imo Cry
By:
Joist
When: 24 Jan 17 21:39
You say "with due respect" yet haven't been the least bit respectful. I'd echo Duffy's comments, and venture that you know little to nothing about racing journalism or those within it.
By:
cause and effect
When: 24 Jan 17 22:21
"I do not dispute Cilaos Emery could eventually turn out to be very good but he would need to beat horses much better than Joey Sasa to warrant his position at the top-end of the Supreme betting market; I think the two best from connections are Meri Devie and Bapaume."

This just about sums it up. How can you criticise others when you can't check your own statements for accuracy? Crazy Comparing juvenile hurdlers to novices and labelling novices as juveniles Whoops If you think the tipsters are wrong you should be celebrating as it creates value on your chosen horses! I've said before I like Imp's enthusiasm for racing but I don't why it bothers you so much if other people have different opinions to yours! Quite simple; if they tip something else up and it gets backed, you should be happy your chosen ones are still a big price, unless they are correct in their assessment, in which case you've already made it clear you disagree with them on the basis you know more!
By:
impossible123
When: 24 Jan 17 23:37
"Comparing juveniles hurdlers to novices and labelling novices as juveniles"

Meri Devie despite being a year younger has similar experience to Cilaos Emery ie one run here so far, hence would be my preference for the Supreme over Cilaos Emery any day; if a tipster recommends Cilaos Emery at 10/1 I'd expect the tipster to be "professionally" responsible as the tipster's advice could cause a contraction in his price in the immediate and short term eg Yorkhill yesterday, he was backed into 7.2 here for the Champion Hurdle after a tipster's advice and now trading at 40 but no taker today. Has his advice not been suggested here sometime ago by some posters who have the propensity to think outside the box especially horses from the same stable as Yorkhill?

I think some posters here and some racing journalists have too high a regard for the horses connected to certain high profile entities in horse racing and not opened to differing views; picking winners in horse racing is no different to picking winners at business and/or equities - the due diligence and discipline are still applied and exercised.
By:
cause and effect
When: 25 Jan 17 08:38
Yorkhill was a non story!! Anyone can see that. NOBODY tipped him up at all! Mullins was just being Mullins talking about next season's options and the media circus ensues. I don't agree with it but you're assuming the general public do not have a brain and will hang on to every word Mullins says! If they do, why do you care? Serves them right for not doing their homework. You can talk about due diligence and discipline and you certainly talk a good game but you don't apply it even in the same post Crazy

If a tipster want to advise backing Cilaos Emery, then he's within his rights to do so. He will be going for the SUpreme and if he doesn't, it's because he's not good enough. If someone thinks he is, then good luck to them. I, for one am not paying 7/1 to find out whether the hype is real or not. How on earth do you seriously think Meri Devie would actually take on her elders? Show me a precedent where Willie Mullins or Graham Wylie has sent a juvenile hurdler to the Supreme? It's never happened before to my recollection and you think all of a sudden, Wylie will send a young filly up to take on her elders AND opposite sex ExcitedLaugh because YOU think it should happen?? Where's your betting slip?

Show me you've backed Meri Devie for the Supreme! Otherwise you're just ranting on about things you think should happen which is a complete waste of time when you could be looking at other horses. I'll say no more on this and wish you good luck for the Festival.
By:
impossible123
When: 25 Jan 17 09:58
With due respect check out the story regarding Yorkhill and his sudden and steep price contraction on tuesday - a racing journo advised that could happen if/should Annie Power and Faugheen miss the Champion Hurdle; he also insinuated, if so, Min could go to the JLT for a near certain victory (without Altior). Despite what Mullins had said about Yorkhill over fences it is evidently clear Yorkhill had not taken to fences as well as he had over hurdles hence Mullins' latest musing.

Again with due respect I disagree vehemently about the skinny price of Cilaos Emery given present form. I did not suggest I'd back him and/or Meri Devie for the Supreme either - I was merely suggesting I'd rather have Meri Devie over Cilaos Emery in the Supreme (should she run there) as she has more superior present form hence her shortie price for the Triumph.

Getabird, Bapaume and Bellshill are the only three horses from the powerful Mullins' stable I have backed for the Festival solely on price and given form; I have not backed any of the other injured/hyped horses including Faugheen, Annie Power, Mellon, Senewalk, etc, from the same stable, a discipline that has seen me in good stead over the years.

I do not follow the suggestions and/or advice of industry parasites and/or posters here either but I do read them if they are open-minded, sensible and reasonable; if they are rude and abusive, they would be put on ignore!

Horse racing is only a game characterised by healthy differing opinions (hopefully) and should be treated as such - it is not set in stone and certainly not the fiefdom of a few.

Good luck with your bets.
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 25 Jan 17 10:56
Not declared to run tomorrow still entered in leopardstown maiden hdl on Saturday
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 27 Jan 17 10:58
Declared Sunday first race Leopardstown but still baffled as to why it's so short. Maybe has something to do with this late in the season and it being weak this year and poss people hoping for another EbaziyanConfused
By:
impossible123
When: 27 Jan 17 13:59
Could it be he ran in Listed company on the flat in France and, of course connections? I think his jumping career had been held back due to a set back. There had been too many false dawns from the same stable and connections to justify support at present skinny prices without any form I'd think.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 27 Jan 17 21:26
By Eamonn Murphy - As ever I'd prefer to see strong positive market signals rather than strong talk when it comes to an unknown quantity, which in this case is MELON. The Medicean gelding, off for 506 days, won one of his four starts on the level in France, and he is prominent in the betting for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham. His jockey Ruby Walsh told Racing UK: "He did a few nice pieces of work last year but I think Melon has done a hell of a lot more talking than galloping at this stage. He does go well and is a horse we like but he has to translate that into form."
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