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Can't Catch Me
29 Nov 16 12:18
Joined:
Date Joined: 02 Apr 03
| Topic/replies: 28,251 | Blogger: Can't Catch Me's blog
Was very impressed with Death Duty at the weekend. Obviously it's the usual guessing game, but I think the AB looks the race for him.

Have taken the 10/1 with Sid James..... already as low as 6's with Paddy. Paid a big compliment to Blow by Blow as well, but guessing he will be a Neptune horse.
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Report unclepuncle December 18, 2016 2:36 PM GMT
Good shout CCM - at least you still had something to smile about after todays race.Cry
Report impossible123 January 6, 2017 9:06 PM GMT
Death Duty is odds-on against some decent oppositions in the Lawlor's at Naas on sunday eg Augusta Kate, Blood Crazed Tiger and Turcagua. If winning his odds for Cheltenham will be more prohibitive than the present 5/2 for the Albert Bartlett.
Report deepingfox January 6, 2017 9:36 PM GMT
I would think there's still a chance DD could be considered for the Neptune in March. That race looks really open, and he would be a red hot fav for it if winning this weekend over a similar trip.
Report impossible123 January 6, 2017 9:54 PM GMT
Possibly, however, Death Duty (DD) is touted to be their best juvenile similar to No More Heroes (NMH) who took the Navan Novice Hurdle, failed in the Nathaniel Lacy (20f) late January and then headed to the Albert Bartlett.

I think Baltazar D'allier from the same stable and who was beaten by Messire Des Obeaux in the Challow last weekend is going for the Neptune instead; Blood Crazed Tiger running on sunday is the unknown, could go either.
Report harry callaghan January 7, 2017 1:28 AM GMT
death duty or no more heroes wouldn't be considered a juvenile in any ones book but yours 123
Report eric_morris January 8, 2017 4:49 PM GMT
Elliott trying to kid everyone Death Duty going Albert Bartlett rather than Neptune?
Report harry callaghan January 8, 2017 5:26 PM GMT
interesting view eric considering he has said after all along after his last 3 runs he is an albert bartlett horse

how/why in all that, would you say elliott is kidding anyone??
Report eric_morris January 8, 2017 6:29 PM GMT
He said himself DD is the best hurdler he has had at this stage. He already has a horse for the three miles race. Surely his best horse is going Neptune. It may push Finians into the Supreme as it is the only danger to that horse in the Neptune. For me these two horses are head and shoulders above any other novice hurdlers seen out this season.
Report Can't Catch Me January 8, 2017 6:35 PM GMT
His best went to the Albert Bartlett when No More Heores ran there, following a similar campaign.

Think you are reading too much into it Eric. He's repeatedly said he thinks he wants a trip. Two and a half on winter ground in Ireland is completely different to the Neptune, where speed horses often do very well. I'd be very surprised if they don't go for the AB.

As for them already having one for this, I presume you mean Blow By Blow? Absolutely no guarantee he will make the Festival, in fact with the way Gigg operate, you'd have to say it was odds against he does.
Report eric_morris January 8, 2017 7:00 PM GMT
Well you could be right, if he didnt go Albert Bartlett though it would have drastic knock on effects for punters across all 3 novice hurdle races.
Report Ekbalco January 8, 2017 9:19 PM GMT
Not for me in any race at Chelters - quick Spring ground will scupper him - the 2018 Lexus on a ploughed field is his race.
Report Can't Catch Me January 8, 2017 9:30 PM GMT
By Shantou, out of a Presenting mare? May well be even better on better ground imo.
Report jedi sophie January 8, 2017 9:32 PM GMT
Fairly happy holding my voucher for AB race after trainers honest straight assessment postrace,polar opposite to the other top camp in ireland...
take some beating in 3m race in my book...
Report PyrrhicVictory January 14, 2017 10:26 AM GMT
A horse of Dan Skeltons I've been waiting for all year with this or the Neptune in mind is Betameche. Really impressive bumper winner last year who I thought would be better over further and well up to an AB or Neptune.

The problem is he has yet to run! His odds are drifting heavily now so I suspect there must be something wrong with him as we're getting close to Chelters now. Sad

Anyone know anything??
Report Can't Catch Me January 19, 2017 1:48 PM GMT
Disappointing effort from Ballyford upped to 2m6f.
Report maelduin January 19, 2017 4:28 PM GMT
I was delighted with his effort CCM. Wink

Death Duty looking like the best novice hurdler around. Nice shout.
Report Can't Catch Me January 19, 2017 5:39 PM GMT
Because you are on DD maelduin?!
Report maelduin January 19, 2017 6:27 PM GMT
Yep. He's in a bunch of accumulators at prices ranging from 7/1 down to 11/4. Was worried about Blow by Blow but he's not going hurdling now. Others falling by the wayside like Battleford. Can see Augusta Kate going Neptune, unless Invitation Only springs back to form then she might go here. Don't rate the others too highly yet but early days. GL
Report Can't Catch Me January 19, 2017 7:02 PM GMT
Good stuff. Personally hoping they don't reroute Invitation Only to this. Wouldn't be the biggest surprise to me!
Report Can't Catch Me February 17, 2017 1:22 PM GMT
Anyone heard anything on the well being of Penhill?

Was the shortest of all the WPM runners in the Royal Bond, so is clearly well thought of. Thought he looked a lively outsider for this. Has form on decent ground as well.
Report ReaseHeath February 17, 2017 1:44 PM GMT
hidden towards the bottom of National weights Brexit row article CCM - all good, not decided which race yet:

http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/a-handicapper-is-meant-to-be-impartial-oleary-to-pull-his-big-guns-from-prebrexit-postbrexit-grand-national-35455469.html

Not really looked at this race yet but the more attritional it looks , the more I'll be against the flat breds personally
Report Can't Catch Me February 17, 2017 1:59 PM GMT
Excellent detective work Rease! Cheers for posting.

Yes interesting point. Not sure how flat breds have fared overall as havent really considered that angle... have many started with decent chances?

Fagan and Barters Hill were two and finished 2nd and 4th last year though.

Death Duty looks a worthy fav, but other than him the other one that interests me is another flat bred, Monalee.
Report ReaseHeath February 17, 2017 2:17 PM GMT
I misspoke really - not so much flat breds I'm instinctively against as horses who started their career on the flat.

I've not done the research yet - I like Death Duty and I like the way West Approach has been campaigned in big fields in open company to toughen him up.

Three winning favourites in last 10 years, none of the other winners shorter than 7/1, four at double figure prices including two at 33/1 - I always think it's one of the most difficult races of the whole week.
Report Can't Catch Me February 27, 2017 7:40 PM GMT
A few rumours in some Previews that Death Duty might run in the Neptune. Pleasing to hear this tonight...

Betfair doing an #askgordon for Gordon Elliott tonight on twitter. He was asked is Death Duty 100% going for Albert Bartlett, his reply 'yes 110%'
Report The Dragon February 27, 2017 7:55 PM GMT
2/1 is a bobbins price though
Report Can't Catch Me February 27, 2017 8:05 PM GMT
It is mate. But my 10/1 isn't Grin
Report duffy February 28, 2017 3:23 PM GMT
What's the latest with Battleford, I know he's disappointed over hurdles this season but if he turned up in the AB I'd be interested in him at big odds in the hope that the better ground over 3 miles brings about a big improvement, the bumper form last spring is red hot isn't it with all the horses that finished around him showing lots of promise over hurdles, at likely odds he'd be worth a speculative bet.

Of course if those thoughts are reflected from within the stable then the MP is likely as he'd be regarded as well handicapped sneaking in right down the bottom, although he may need Smith to up him a couple of pounds.
Report Can't Catch Me February 28, 2017 3:25 PM GMT
Think the Martin Pipe will be the race for him Duffy. Pretty interesting for it I think, although looks short enough now...
Report Can't Catch Me February 28, 2017 3:47 PM GMT
Gordon Elliot stable tour:

Death Duty

He goes for the Albert Bartlett, definitely. I’d say he’d have the pace for a Neptune but three miles he’s in his comfort zone. I think the race was made for him. He’s a big three-mile chaser in the making and I’ve said from flagfall it’s the race he’ll go for. He probably is a better hurdler than Don Cossack was at the same stage on form but he still has to go and do it when he goes chasing. He hasn’t done too much wrong this year. Nothing fazes him, he’s very laid back and they’re normally the best ones.
Report Can't Catch Me March 1, 2017 10:59 AM GMT
Davy Russell scoffed at suggestions that Penhill could win this at a Preview last night. Said he cant jump and bleeds!

West Aproach getting a lot of plaudits in the Previews Ive seen.
Report shockster March 1, 2017 11:13 AM GMT
I'm on West Approach, but have to say I'm a bit worried they will go for the Stayers?  Has anybody heard anything as I never saw any mentions from Tizzards stable day?
Report ReaseHeath March 1, 2017 11:34 AM GMT
I'm pretty sure I read or heard somewhere that the feedback they got from Ruby after he rode him on trials day was that he should go the novice route.

It might have been just in the RUK wrap up on the day. Things can change, of course.
Report duffy March 1, 2017 2:53 PM GMT
Just had a little bit on Battleford for this, it looks like Smith has actually dropped him and he won't get into the MP now from what I can see.
Report duffy March 1, 2017 3:03 PM GMT
^
actually, I read it wrong, I've probably just wasted £16CrazyGrin
Report ReaseHeath March 1, 2017 6:30 PM GMT
West Approach update right on cue from Racing UK:

http://www.racinguk.com/news/article/49468/west-approach-likely-to-stick-to-novice-company-at-cheltenham
Report Can't Catch Me March 4, 2017 10:39 AM GMT
Wholestone highly unlikely to run.
Report Can't Catch Me March 4, 2017 10:41 AM GMT
Just and a good saver on West Approach as with Barcardys heading to the Neptune, this increasingly looks a three horse race between DD, West Approach and Augusta Kate.
Report Can't Catch Me March 4, 2017 10:42 AM GMT
Sorry make that four horse race with Penhill Mischief

Wonder if HdB will be more tempted to have another go at DD with Monalee...
Report lewisham ranger March 4, 2017 11:39 AM GMT
What's west approach actually done?
Report lewisham ranger March 4, 2017 11:42 AM GMT
looked at his rating and he's 2/13, not very inspiring is it?

perhaps people are fooled by the fact he's been doing ok in better company.
Report lewisham ranger March 4, 2017 11:42 AM GMT
record even
Report Goretski March 4, 2017 11:49 AM GMT
Have a look at Thistlecracks from before he went on his winning sequence! Its not about the number of 1's beside your name it's the substance of form. Would you back a horse in here at 5's havin 15/15 wins to his name.... 15 donkey derbys?
Report lewisham ranger March 4, 2017 11:52 AM GMT
yeah probably... it'll be bubbling with confidence Wink
Report Goretski March 4, 2017 11:54 AM GMT
Dont tell him he's only beating donkeys though! Wink
Report shockster March 4, 2017 11:59 AM GMT
CCM where has the Wholestone news come from?  Looks strong on here with money waiting to back?
Report DontBeSakhee March 4, 2017 12:04 PM GMT
I'm hoping CCM meant West Approach, I want Wholestone to run.
Report Can't Catch Me March 4, 2017 12:14 PM GMT
From a very credible poster on another forum who knows the stable. There have been a few mentions of him having a setback at a few recent previews, and apparently he has.
Report Can't Catch Me March 4, 2017 12:16 PM GMT
Yes I've been fooled lewisham Laugh

You may not fancy the horse but it's a bit disrespectful to suggests people who do have been 'fooled'. His third place in the Cleeve was impressive for a Novice imo and I think he is a horse going the right away. Let's see.
Report DontBeSakhee March 4, 2017 12:17 PM GMT
Hope it's just a New One style setback a few years ago, when there was talk of him not being ok, but still ran and won the Neptune.
Report Can't Catch Me March 4, 2017 12:19 PM GMT
Yeah fingers crossed mate. Only passing the info on I read. Just looked back at my notes and it was Carl Llewelyn who said at a preview the horse had had a setback.
Report DontBeSakhee March 4, 2017 12:31 PM GMT
Assistant trainer so should be fairly solid info. Shame.
Report shockster March 4, 2017 12:47 PM GMT
Cheers CCM
Report stevo1 March 4, 2017 9:33 PM GMT
Lots of money to lay still if correct.
Report stevo1 March 4, 2017 11:44 PM GMT
Trainer out of form 0/27 last 14 days slight concern for Wholestone, Ballyandy backers?
Report Can't Catch Me March 5, 2017 9:41 AM GMT
NTD saying he's happy with Wholestone now. Sorry lads, was just posting what I'd seen, but looks like it might be wrong.
Report DontBeSakhee March 5, 2017 12:45 PM GMT
No worries CCM Cool, it's one of those cases where I'm pleased someone is wrong. Laugh
Report shockster March 8, 2017 7:59 PM GMT
Henderson says he's running 2 in this Baden & Constantine Bay.  He says Constantine Bay reminds him a lot of BOBSWORTH and obviously likes him. Didn't say anything daft like he'd win, but def likes him.
Report Killie Sunt March 8, 2017 9:10 PM GMT
Doesn't look like it
Baden is 1000 on here
Report shockster March 9, 2017 11:24 AM GMT
He said they run Baden & Constantine Bay Killie. He didn't say get on at 1000?
Report impossible123 March 9, 2017 1:13 PM GMT
Death Duty is No More Heroes reincarnated, in a nutshell. Just hoping Cooper does not screw up (again).
Report lewisham ranger March 9, 2017 1:25 PM GMT
cooper isn't riding it, god pay attention Cry
Report lewisham ranger March 9, 2017 1:26 PM GMT
jack kennedy is going to be onboard
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 March 9, 2017 2:49 PM GMT
NMH wasn't winning that race imo, yes he got pushed into the rail but i've already written my view on the race above after watching it.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 March 9, 2017 2:50 PM GMT
It's not on this thread i not sure where it is now
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 March 9, 2017 2:53 PM GMT
SEATHESTARS....NO1 01 Mar 17 13:56 Joined: 04 Oct 09 | Topic/replies: 4,302 | Blogger: SEATHESTARS....NO1's blog
Immaterial now as was 2 years ago but i've just watched the albert bartlett back again there and paused it at key stages of the race and written it below. Not sure NMH would have won anyway but you make your own minds up on that dependant on pocket i suppose but anyways ........

"No more heroes not very fluent over the 4th had to be ridden away from it"


I notice Blaklion jumped across him at the 5th, not one i would have been wanting to back at this stage in running either tbh

strongly ridden into the flight at the top of the hill and strongly driven str8 after it, however back on the bridle rounding the bend, ish,

Whip is extracted but not used as the round the bend, head to 2 out and some small niggles by cooper for the umpteenth time

They jump 2 out no more heroes looks strongly ridden to me as cooper ups the ante and wants to win the race,

Milsean for me doesn't come across that much, maybe half of a horses width but no more than that. If you ask me cooper went for a gap that was bearly there and paid the price. I doubt he would have won anyways but we will never know that.



Here it is was on the Death Duty thread.
Report charlieptl March 9, 2017 4:23 PM GMT
Baden has had some support from somewhere, 36's now.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 March 9, 2017 5:16 PM GMT
He's got absolutely no chance but i've just been on the market for 4 mins and seen money chasing itself out to 310. What some people don't understand is, when someone else puts a bet in at the same price as you have already entered into the system, the first bet is first in the queue! Always astounds me when you see this happen. Am like why? It makes it so easy for market manipulators to make easy money!
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 March 9, 2017 5:20 PM GMT
So, the 1000 has all been taken, so what. Someone has made an easy £7 probably. But in 5 mins after i seen 22 appear at 65, then 12 went over the top at 90, a few seconds later the 22 moved to 90 over the top of the 12 so if left, and some were matched, the 12 would have been matched first leaving the 22. Now the 11 has chased each other out to 310 Whoops


Talk about compulsive Crazy
Report flakeydove48 March 10, 2017 11:58 AM GMT
West approach drifting massively. Now out to 17.0. Has anything been said as I must have missed it??
Report ronnie rails March 10, 2017 12:22 PM GMT
has it been declared for the stayers today
Report buddeliea March 10, 2017 12:30 PM GMT
Not heard anything.
If he is still in the Stayers it should not make much difference,he can stay in both at this stage.
Report ReaseHeath March 10, 2017 12:52 PM GMT
The Twitterati Consensus is that there is an interview in RP this morning in which Tizzard states he runs in the Stayers.

Not seen it myself, so don't shoot me I'm only the messenger.
Report ReaseHeath March 10, 2017 12:55 PM GMT
to be wholly accurate it apparently reports that Stayers Hurdle is preference over Albert Bartlett, so still some wiggle room.
Report shockster March 10, 2017 1:14 PM GMT
Apparently the owners (same as Thistlecrack) have made the call to go for the Stayers. Earlier in the week Joe Tizzard stated they were going A.Bartlett, but this has now changed!!!!!!!!!
Report buddeliea March 10, 2017 1:20 PM GMT
Don't think they can beat DD and Wholestone,and think they could place in the Stayers??
Prizemoney issue??
Report impossible123 March 10, 2017 1:21 PM GMT
Very brave about West Approach...I thought he was running past very tired horses in the Cleeve Hurdle; he was beaten twice by Wholestone earlier,...in the Stayers against the seasoned campaigners? A very tall order indeed, owners decision rather than trainer advice, I guess.
Report lewisham ranger March 10, 2017 1:24 PM GMT
well he was an eyecatcher last time, and connections won the same race last year, so perhaps they want to put up some sort of defence?

would not surprise me in the least if he won.
Report buddeliea March 10, 2017 1:26 PM GMT
Got a few pounds to make up on Harry re last time.
Report lewisham ranger March 10, 2017 1:30 PM GMT
yes, but he's a novice and these championship races have a different make up

maybe the better ground will see improvement?

anyway I just look at connections, the fact they had the runaway winner last year... that it itself would lead me to the conclusion that it would be dangerous to underestimate west approach
Report Angela Rebecchi March 16, 2017 10:33 PM GMT
Great shout by the OP
Report wellchief March 17, 2017 8:59 AM GMT
Hoping Ami Desbois can run a big race at a big price. Messire Des Obeaux didn't do the Challow Hurdle form any harm in the Neptune and Ami only has a length to find with Wholestone.

Death Duty will most likely be my RSA horse next year. Not sure what ground Death Duty will want but it seems to be slow, which I think will help him.

Had a small saver on Monalee, but hard to see him reversing it with DD last time, but hoping the step up will help him.
Report The Dragon March 17, 2017 12:10 PM GMT
tough race have had a small interest in Worlds End and Wholestone
Report duffy March 17, 2017 2:01 PM GMT
I like Monalee, his defeat by DD last time looked that Monalee was just beginning to get going and went on to beat Battleford easily over 3 miles. DD is the most talented horse in the race but this race isn't necessarily won by that horse, it's a sleeves rolled up grizzled type and Monalee looks like one of themGrin
Report lewisham ranger March 17, 2017 3:05 PM GMT
death duty exposed as incredibly slow. clearly you need to avoid the bog-lovers at cheltenham. winner was an ex-2 mile hurdle winner and also came from the flat.
Report ZenMaster March 17, 2017 3:50 PM GMT
Slow? I thought Death Duty hit the wall and was out on his feet before falling.
.
Report lewisham ranger March 17, 2017 4:04 PM GMT
looked outpaced and outstayed

not a good combination Laugh
Report ZenMaster March 17, 2017 4:10 PM GMT
When you are outstayed it generally means others are going a faster paceWink
Report impossible123 March 17, 2017 4:23 PM GMT
Death Duty looked as if he did not stay the 3m trip. Hopefully, come next season and a year older he could progress into a serious contender for the JLT or RSA (possibly). Penhill won well.
Report ZenMaster March 17, 2017 4:45 PM GMT
What is striking here is how wrong the trainer got this. he was advised that Death Duty was not a 3 miler.
Report impossible123 March 17, 2017 5:12 PM GMT
It will be interesting to see where Death Duty goes next. On today's running I do not think he'd have won either had the race been over 20f instead of 24f; maybe something is amiss.
Report unclepuncle March 17, 2017 6:29 PM GMT
Augusta Kate didn't exactly do much for the form either.

Don Cossack went through a period of realtively poor form after looking a machine, but he bounced back to win a Gold Cup so don't give up on him yet.
Report lewisham ranger March 17, 2017 6:42 PM GMT
impossible123 17 Mar 17 16:23 Joined: 07 Sep 15 | Topic/replies: 3,518 | Blogger: impossible123's blog
Death Duty looked as if he did not stay the 3m trip. Hopefully, come next season and a year older he could progress into a serious contender for the JLT or RSA (possibly). Penhill won well.


hows he going to be aimed at the RSA if he didn't stay 3 miles?
Report CheltenhamRoar March 17, 2017 7:41 PM GMT
Will be a much better chaser, will stay 3 miles easy once it strengthens and progresses
Report wellchief March 18, 2017 11:31 AM GMT
I personally didn't fancy Death Duty but it was a disappointing run.

Like CR, I think he'll be a much better chaser but he did go out like a light, and a very tired fall at the end.

He would have been my RSA horse, but not on the back of that run. The way Elliot spoke about him, he must be a good one, and he might have just had an off day, but it'll be interesting what they do with him trip wise now.
Report sageform March 19, 2017 9:00 AM GMT
The first 2 in the Neptune, Penhill and Constantine Bay are the ones I will be watching for next season.
Report lewisham ranger March 19, 2017 10:52 AM GMT
penhill ran in the albert bartlett. constantine also ran in the same race and finished fourth.
Report wellchief March 19, 2017 10:57 AM GMT
Think sage means the first two in the Neptune as well as the other two.
Report lewisham ranger March 19, 2017 11:05 AM GMT
ok.Crazy
Report lewisham ranger March 19, 2017 11:06 AM GMT
btw penhill owned by tony bloom, probably biggest football punter off all time and owns librisa breeze on the flat. also owns brighton football club.

wonder if he'll get anymore good horses over the next few years.
Report lewisham ranger March 19, 2017 11:17 AM GMT
btw think for what it's worth (although according to some on here my opinion is not worth much) I think it would be dangerous to overrate defi du seuil's win.

we've seen hugely impressive triumph winners before that haven't gone on to do much in their next season. our conor springs to mind. even more impressive I would say and I know that while he was fatally injured in the champion hurdle itself he was put in his place before that.

the reason for that and why five year olds have a poor record in the champion hurdle is that they simply are much faster in older races than they are in the triumph. There's no way that he will be able to cruise around and win on the bridle in the champion hurdle like he did in the triumph.

it's impressed me how much he's improved this season but I really think this defi du seuil will be a big lay next season, whether he goes for the champion hurdle or the arkle.
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