Cheltenham Festival
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29 Nov 16
12:18
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02 Apr 03
Was very impressed with Death Duty at the weekend. Obviously it's the usual guessing game, but I think the AB looks the race for him.
Have taken the 10/1 with Sid James..... already as low as 6's with Paddy. Paid a big compliment to Blow by Blow as well, but guessing he will be a Neptune horse.
Have taken the 10/1 with Sid James..... already as low as 6's with Paddy. Paid a big compliment to Blow by Blow as well, but guessing he will be a Neptune horse.
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Not that convinced with Death Duty for AB. BBB is the key horse obviously. No entries yet. No news either. Could have had a setback but the race Death Duty won wasn't a deep race. THe roll of honour in that race isn't impressive and WPM has never won it which says it all. Equivalent to the Ten up/Flyingbolt/Woodlands novice chase in Jan/Feb. Would imagine wherever he's entered up next, what WPM puts up vs him will be significant though he looks to have a light hand in the novice hurdling department this season
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No betting for Messire Des Obeaux here but between 14/1 and 25/1 for the Neptune after winning today.
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MDO picked up the pieces after the front two cut each others throats - he was well beat in last years Fred Winter so it's going to take a massive leap for him to win a Grade 1 novice at next years festival. I'd have thought the Coral Cup or Martin Pipe might be more realistic options.
Cultivator is the one to take out of todays race, especially back at 2m and might be a Tolworth or even a Betfair Hurdle type. |
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Death Duty seems to be the bee's knees here - he is already as short as 6/1. He's entered in the Navan Novice Hurdle over 20f this sunday (No More Heroes won this beating Shaneshill) two seasons back.
Invitation Only is also entered - a good race if both runs but doubt it. |
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Very nice performance. Hope this is the right race for him as he looks like he could be just as good in the Neptune.
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Good shout CCM - at least you still had something to smile about after todays race.
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Death Duty is odds-on against some decent oppositions in the Lawlor's at Naas on sunday eg Augusta Kate, Blood Crazed Tiger and Turcagua. If winning his odds for Cheltenham will be more prohibitive than the present 5/2 for the Albert Bartlett.
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I would think there's still a chance DD could be considered for the Neptune in March. That race looks really open, and he would be a red hot fav for it if winning this weekend over a similar trip.
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Possibly, however, Death Duty (DD) is touted to be their best juvenile similar to No More Heroes (NMH) who took the Navan Novice Hurdle, failed in the Nathaniel Lacy (20f) late January and then headed to the Albert Bartlett.
I think Baltazar D'allier from the same stable and who was beaten by Messire Des Obeaux in the Challow last weekend is going for the Neptune instead; Blood Crazed Tiger running on sunday is the unknown, could go either. |
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death duty or no more heroes wouldn't be considered a juvenile in any ones book but yours 123
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Elliott trying to kid everyone Death Duty going Albert Bartlett rather than Neptune?
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interesting view eric considering he has said after all along after his last 3 runs he is an albert bartlett horse
how/why in all that, would you say elliott is kidding anyone?? |
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He said himself DD is the best hurdler he has had at this stage. He already has a horse for the three miles race. Surely his best horse is going Neptune. It may push Finians into the Supreme as it is the only danger to that horse in the Neptune. For me these two horses are head and shoulders above any other novice hurdlers seen out this season.
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His best went to the Albert Bartlett when No More Heores ran there, following a similar campaign.
Think you are reading too much into it Eric. He's repeatedly said he thinks he wants a trip. Two and a half on winter ground in Ireland is completely different to the Neptune, where speed horses often do very well. I'd be very surprised if they don't go for the AB. As for them already having one for this, I presume you mean Blow By Blow? Absolutely no guarantee he will make the Festival, in fact with the way Gigg operate, you'd have to say it was odds against he does. |
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Well you could be right, if he didnt go Albert Bartlett though it would have drastic knock on effects for punters across all 3 novice hurdle races.
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Not for me in any race at Chelters - quick Spring ground will scupper him - the 2018 Lexus on a ploughed field is his race.
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By Shantou, out of a Presenting mare? May well be even better on better ground imo.
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Fairly happy holding my voucher for AB race after trainers honest straight assessment postrace,polar opposite to the other top camp in ireland...
take some beating in 3m race in my book... |
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A horse of Dan Skeltons I've been waiting for all year with this or the Neptune in mind is Betameche. Really impressive bumper winner last year who I thought would be better over further and well up to an AB or Neptune.
The problem is he has yet to run! His odds are drifting heavily now so I suspect there must be something wrong with him as we're getting close to Chelters now.  Anyone know anything?? |
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Disappointing effort from Ballyford upped to 2m6f.
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I was delighted with his effort CCM.
 Death Duty looking like the best novice hurdler around. Nice shout. |
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Because you are on DD maelduin?!
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Yep. He's in a bunch of accumulators at prices ranging from 7/1 down to 11/4. Was worried about Blow by Blow but he's not going hurdling now. Others falling by the wayside like Battleford. Can see Augusta Kate going Neptune, unless Invitation Only springs back to form then she might go here. Don't rate the others too highly yet but early days. GL
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Good stuff. Personally hoping they don't reroute Invitation Only to this. Wouldn't be the biggest surprise to me!
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Anyone heard anything on the well being of Penhill?
Was the shortest of all the WPM runners in the Royal Bond, so is clearly well thought of. Thought he looked a lively outsider for this. Has form on decent ground as well. |
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hidden towards the bottom of National weights Brexit row article CCM - all good, not decided which race yet:
http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/a-handicapper-is-meant-to-be-impartial-oleary-to-pull-his-big-guns-from-prebrexit-postbrexit-grand-national-35455469.html Not really looked at this race yet but the more attritional it looks , the more I'll be against the flat breds personally |
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Excellent detective work Rease! Cheers for posting.
Yes interesting point. Not sure how flat breds have fared overall as havent really considered that angle... have many started with decent chances? Fagan and Barters Hill were two and finished 2nd and 4th last year though. Death Duty looks a worthy fav, but other than him the other one that interests me is another flat bred, Monalee. |
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I misspoke really - not so much flat breds I'm instinctively against as horses who started their career on the flat.
I've not done the research yet - I like Death Duty and I like the way West Approach has been campaigned in big fields in open company to toughen him up. Three winning favourites in last 10 years, none of the other winners shorter than 7/1, four at double figure prices including two at 33/1 - I always think it's one of the most difficult races of the whole week. |
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A few rumours in some Previews that Death Duty might run in the Neptune. Pleasing to hear this tonight...
Betfair doing an #askgordon for Gordon Elliott tonight on twitter. He was asked is Death Duty 100% going for Albert Bartlett, his reply 'yes 110%' |
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2/1 is a bobbins price though
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It is mate. But my 10/1 isn't
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What's the latest with Battleford, I know he's disappointed over hurdles this season but if he turned up in the AB I'd be interested in him at big odds in the hope that the better ground over 3 miles brings about a big improvement, the bumper form last spring is red hot isn't it with all the horses that finished around him showing lots of promise over hurdles, at likely odds he'd be worth a speculative bet.
Of course if those thoughts are reflected from within the stable then the MP is likely as he'd be regarded as well handicapped sneaking in right down the bottom, although he may need Smith to up him a couple of pounds. |
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Think the Martin Pipe will be the race for him Duffy. Pretty interesting for it I think, although looks short enough now...
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Gordon Elliot stable tour:
Death Duty He goes for the Albert Bartlett, definitely. I’d say he’d have the pace for a Neptune but three miles he’s in his comfort zone. I think the race was made for him. He’s a big three-mile chaser in the making and I’ve said from flagfall it’s the race he’ll go for. He probably is a better hurdler than Don Cossack was at the same stage on form but he still has to go and do it when he goes chasing. He hasn’t done too much wrong this year. Nothing fazes him, he’s very laid back and they’re normally the best ones. |
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Davy Russell scoffed at suggestions that Penhill could win this at a Preview last night. Said he cant jump and bleeds!
West Aproach getting a lot of plaudits in the Previews Ive seen. |
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I'm on West Approach, but have to say I'm a bit worried they will go for the Stayers? Has anybody heard anything as I never saw any mentions from Tizzards stable day?
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I'm pretty sure I read or heard somewhere that the feedback they got from Ruby after he rode him on trials day was that he should go the novice route.
It might have been just in the RUK wrap up on the day. Things can change, of course. |
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Just had a little bit on Battleford for this, it looks like Smith has actually dropped him and he won't get into the MP now from what I can see.
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^
actually, I read it wrong, I've probably just wasted £16  |