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cyclops
22 Sep 16 13:57
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Date Joined: 11 Apr 02
| Topic/replies: 1,157 | Blogger: cyclops's blog
The favourite for the Cheltenham Gold Cup has never jumped a fence in public.
The second favourite has never won over three miles.
The third favourite will be eleven in March.
The fourth favourite is returning from injury.
The fifth favourite (and reigning Champion) also tries to return from injury.
There does not appear to be a stand out staying novice from last year.
Which leads me to the conclusion that Djakadam is absolutely nailed on for a place.
Worthy runner-up for the past two years, consistent, a superb jumper, happy on any going and, thus far, sound.
Yes, he's been found wanting by two good winners, but not by so far. He's young enough to not decline, possibly improve, and while he could easily find one or two of the above, or something from left field, too good, he's unlikely to find three.
There's speculation on another thread that he could head for the Ryanair, but that's not going to happen in my view.
At around 9/2 the place, he looks outstanding.

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Replies: 149
By:
charlieptl
When: 23 Sep 16 21:35
I think where he runs will depend on what they do with Douvan, how well Vautour does over 3 and whether or not they think Black Hercules is a gold cup horse. I like your post, can't see him out the top 3 if he gets there and there is potential improvement
By:
Jb23
When: 24 Sep 16 16:09
Personally think that Black Hercules is probably the most guaranteed Mullins GC runner. Purely on the ownership. Douvan, Vautour, Djakadam, K Vic could go to any of 3/4 different races
By:
charlieptl
When: 25 Sep 16 09:23
I agree with that Jb. Black Hercules was very impressive at Cheltenham and he will get the extra mile no problem.
By:
Jb23
When: 25 Sep 16 11:01
Agree Charlie. The more I look at Black Hercules, the more I am drawn to 33-1 being a fantastic price. Graham Wylie loves the Gold Cup and loves having runners in it. When you look at what else he has at his disposal, Im struggling to see many candidates?

Nichols Canyon - Will surely step up to 3miles and go for the stayers hurdle.
Shaneshill - I can't have as a Gold Cup horse at all (despite second in the RSA). Intriguing they reverted him back to hurdles at Liverpool & Punchestown. Both him & NC went to the States for their World Hurdle equivalent. So joining the dots would look like Wylie is double handed in a wide open championship race (Presuming Thistlecrack takes to fences)
On His Own, Boston Bob & Solar Impulse - Just not anywhere near good enough & probably the National is the ultimate target

RE Djakadam. Just going back to the Original thread. Agree with Cyclops on the breakdown of the top of the market I completely agree. But it just also makes me love the Hercules bet even more. You're getting 8-1 a place on a Willie Mullins thing, who is almost certain to run, will stay the distance and goes on any ground
By:
charlieptl
When: 25 Sep 16 11:51
Don't want to hijack cyclops post and turn it into a Black Hercules thread, but you make very good points JB. Black Hercules is best priced 10/1 to be placed in the Gold Cup, which looks like really good value - especially if you take the line that BH is more likely to be GC bound than Djackadam.
By:
vinnie_roe
When: 25 Sep 16 13:27
Hi charlie. Which bookmaker is offering 10/1 for the place?
By:
charlieptl
When: 25 Sep 16 14:57
8's with bookies, 10 on the exchange.
By:
duffy
When: 27 Sep 16 01:09
I don't really like the Jewson form, BDM made mistakes, LS came to win the race but for me stuck his head in the air and went sideways and TM was too close at the end.

Yes the longer distance will suit BH but he'll be outclassed IMO.

As for Djakadam, he's shown us twice that he doesn't finish off the race well enough to quite win so you'll be playing for 2 places, then throw into the mix that because of his shown inability to win they might just as easily go for the Ryanair, so he's not for me.
By:
wellchief
When: 27 Sep 16 08:19
Killultagh Vic is the one who interests me the most, if he can recover from his injury.

He was their original first choice for the Ryanair last year, and I get the impression they rated him higher than Blercules.

I'd have to wait until the any race markets start to appear before thinking of him though.

From the Mullins camp, I'd send Vic, Djak and Valseur Lido to the Gold Cup, and Vautour, Black Hercules and VVM to the Ryanair.

Lots of twists to come though.  I'm not writing off Vautour by any means, but I now think he is beatable over the Ryanair trip, whereas last year I'd have said no chance.
By:
wellchief
When: 27 Sep 16 08:22
Sorry KV first choice for the JLT, not Ryanair.
By:
Jb23
When: 27 Sep 16 09:46
Chief, Can KV still run in the JLT? I don't understand the rules massively on what constitutes as a novice season and what does not. I know KV ran in 2 novice chases last year, does that not surrender his novice status?
By:
duffy
When: 27 Sep 16 10:23
jb

Chief was just correcting his post stating that KV was first choice for Ryanair when he meant to say Jewson. He can't run in Jewson as he's not a novice.
By:
Jb23
When: 27 Sep 16 11:18
Ahh sorry! My bad I misread!
By:
firstimevisor
When: 27 Sep 16 11:20
Agree with the OP that Djakadam looks rock solid.

He's still just a 7 yo who has already been second in 2 cracking GCs. Those performances would have won Lord Windermere,Bobsworth and Synchronised Gold Cups in the previous 3 years

There is no chance of him going for the Ryanair. He could well improve at his age but even a reproduction of his GC performance this year could well win it.
By:
wellchief
When: 27 Sep 16 11:45
Yeah, sorry JB, just fixing my typo earlier.

Re Djakadam, I agree with Cyclops about him being excellent place material, but I personally cannot see him winning at the third attempt.

There are question marks over the majority of the market leaders, but there are some really good unexposed types like Thistlecrack, Black Hercules, Blaklion, and even Vautour if they stop messing about with him.

Soft ground and Coneygree will be difficult to beat too.

A lot will depend on three factors for me, stating the obvious but if Thistlecrack takes to fences he'll be one hell of a chaser, Coneygree if recovered and gets his conditions then he'll have a great chance, and how Mullins shuffles his pack.

Couldn't have Cue Card, Don Poli or Don Cossack from last year's race, for various reasons. Djak is probably the only one I'll give another chance too.
By:
charlieptl
When: 27 Sep 16 15:39
Where Djakadam goes could ultimately come down to the performance of others, hence why 9/2 for me, is a little short to be getting involved.
By:
SoYouThink
When: 01 Oct 16 11:59
I agree with everything in the opening post. If I had to pick a winner now, it'd be Djakadam. He's the most guaranteed of the Ricci runners to run (I can't see any logic in running him in the Ryanair - he's a 3m+ horse) and arguably over the last 2 years been the most consistent staying chaser. He wasn't good enough to beat Coneygree as a 6yo or Don Cossack as a 7yo but as others have said a reproduction of either of those runs could easily be good enough. Plus he'll be an 8yo which is more like the age you'd expect a Gold Cup winner to be.
By:
impossible123
When: 02 Oct 16 12:34
I nominate Killutagh Vic and Vroum Vroum Mag for the Cheltenham Gold Cup; Djakadam has had his chances but found wanting on both occasions. Again, an aspiring new recruit with utmost potential will surface to take this race.

A great shame 'No More Heroes' is not around to 'claim' this price - he'd every ingredient to be a winner here!
By:
convict99
When: 03 Oct 16 20:06
i am also really interested in killutagh vic for the gold cup,would love to see him run in the hennessy gold up, any updates on this would be really appreciated
By:
HaylingBilly
When: 06 Oct 16 15:08
I quite fancy the look of Minella Rocco for 2017 Gold Cup............might be aimed at Grand National. For sure he will get the distance and he was a convincing winner in 2016 4 miler. AP used to rave abut the horse. They have always thought a lot of the horse. Could it be his time.
By:
cyclops
When: 19 Oct 16 09:09
Interesting that on the RP podcast, Patrick Mullins just put up Djakadam ew as his Gold Cup suggestion from the stable.
While we all have opinions, the worth of this, plus Willie Mullins comment that he feels he could squeeze a bit more improvement from him this season, seems at least a statement of intent and those who suggest that the Ryanair could be a target are likely to be well wide of the mark.
Still very overpriced in my view.
By:
Brownie3
When: 19 Oct 16 10:55

Oct 3, 2016 -- 2:06PM, convict99 wrote:


i am also really interested in killutagh vic for the gold cup,would love to see him run in the hennessy gold up, any updates on this would be really appreciated


KV is been given more time to recover from the injury last year. Expected back 2nd halve of season, Willie says 3 miles is his trip. Can't see him been Gold Cup bound tbh, not this season. I still think Ryanair is the race, providing he is 100% right.
Wouldn't be the greatest surprise if we dont see him at all this season, hope im wrong.

By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 19 Oct 16 14:36
This was what Willie said in the stable tour re Djakadam:

"You'd imagine that he will go back for the Gold Cup again. I think The Fellow was beaten in two Gold Cups and he came back to win one, so perhaps history may repeat itself".
By:
cyclops
When: 19 Oct 16 17:12
Yes, whatever your views on how he'll fare in the Gold Cup, you wouldn't§t want to on him for the Ryanair.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 19 Oct 16 17:16
I've backed him for the Ryanair and still think it's a good possibility. Only for small stakes admittedly, as I think it's a huge risk backing any of the WPM and RR horses for big stakes this far out.

It all hinges on Vautour for me. If he wins the King George and is 100% in the run up to Cheltenham, then I think he will go for Gold. And if that's the case, I think they could well re-route Djakadam.
By:
Pleasegivemeanailedontip
When: 23 Oct 16 10:08
Yes, although i agree with the logic of the OP its worth setting up an internal alarm system if you ever type an RR horse and the word 'banker' in the same sentance.
By:
impossible123
When: 07 Nov 16 21:44
Immediately after Djakadam finished 2nd to Don Cossack this year WPM said he might have to look for another race for him to run in next year (2017). Now with the untimely death of Vautour, and his owner, RR, on ATR this evening saying that Djakadam could go for this race especially if the ground is softish; if running here without Vautour Djakadam could go off 'fav' or much shorter than 20/1 currently on offer here, I'd have thought.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 11 Jan 17 21:15
Ricci on Djakadam when interviewed by the RP: "Djakadam would be entered in the Ryanair and that option would be considered if it was quicker ground but he would be heading to the Gold Cup if it was soft."

Taken from the Gold Cup thread on antepost.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 11 Jan 17 21:23
Usual smoke and mirrors. I'll happily take evens that assuming he runs at the festival it will be in the Gold Cup.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 11 Jan 17 21:31
Apparently Mullins has only entered VVM and Djakadam in the Gold Cup.

Personally I would think that makes it very unlikely that Djakadam runs anywhere other than the Gold Cup - I know VVM is supersub but she has n't run over fences for over 12 months and will have multiple opportunities to race earlier in the week.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 11 Jan 17 21:45
Yes I'd be very surprised if VVM is sent over fences after having a whole season over Hurdles. Would seem daft.

Pretty sure they don't tell Rich what's really happening anyway!
By:
impossible123
When: 11 Jan 17 21:56
The main aim of Mullins is to win at the Cheltenham Festival. The question is, between the Gold Cup and Ryanair, which is an easier race to win? Undoubtedly, it is the latter (no Thistlecrack). And with Djakadam he'd have an excellent chance; VVM could then be rerouted to the GC ahead of her other probable option, the Stayers Hurdle, where Shaneshill could deputise.

I do not think Annie Power will run in the CH but the Mares, an easier race, if not, there is always Limini and Let's Dance: Nichols Canyon can do the CH if Faugheen is unavailable.

Ruby will be pleased with the above 'plan' which means he can ride in every one.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 11 Jan 17 22:00
Limini is awol, just saying...
By:
neill d
When: 11 Jan 17 22:01
There is absolutely no chance of djakadam running in the Ryanair, none whatsover. He'll run in the Gold Cup and will try and lead.
By:
Arklearkle
When: 11 Jan 17 22:51
Neil 100% correct. The real value in the race.
By:
impossible123
When: 11 Jan 17 22:58
I thought Ricci said the same about Vautour last year, if my memory serves.
By:
impossible123
When: 11 Jan 17 23:25
VVM and Djakadam (same ownership) are the only two horses entered in the Gold Cup from the Mullins' stable.
By:
rl91
When: 11 Jan 17 23:31
Speaking of the Mullins options for the GC/Ryanair any news on Kilatugh Vic?
By:
impossible123
When: 12 Jan 17 17:40
No update from Mullins or associate; he's been taken out of the Gold Cup with just the Ryanair remaining.
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