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Ante Post Musings- Triumph Hurdle

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Replies: 242
By:
sageform
When: 28 Feb 16 13:16
Why didn't Zubayr beat much? Skelton has a high opinion of the second and the form of Gibralfaro and St Saviour was pretty good. I happen to think the sharp track may not have suited Gibralfaro, but you couldn't back any of the other runners yesterday to beat Zubayr.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 28 Feb 16 13:59
I was underwhelmed by the race too to be honest - probably need to watch it again but Azzuri benefited from an enterprising ride, and got a soft lead probably partly because the jockeys on some of the others probably wanted to ease them into the race due to their lack of experience - the winner was impressive enough but I would n't be sure that the form is that reliable due to the way the race was run, not sure that matters though - looking back Zarkandar did n't beat much in his renewal.

On a different tack, does anybody know what is happening with Apple's Jade who beat Jer's Girl over Christmas? 

Struggling to get a handle on this race, can see me not having a bet apart from the placepot perm.
By:
impossible123
When: 28 Feb 16 14:01
Zubayr was running for the 1st time but receiving 7lbs from Gibralfaro who beat Duke of Medinas (DoM) by 0.5l but was receiving 6lbs; DoM finished 8l behind Who Dares Wins (ran too freely and giving 3lbs) and 11l behind Protek Des Flos (receiving 4lbs), in a much better race. Also, the form of the runner up did amount to much either, and at 7/1 no value at all.

On the other hand in Ireland Footpad beat Let's Dance by 3l where Ivanovich Gorbatov (IG) finished unplaced-this is about the same distance Ivanovich Gorbatov beat LD previously, and that was better form.
By:
Jb23
When: 28 Feb 16 15:17
Rease- There was a Mullins thing on ATR today at lunchtime. AJ was mentioned with talk of the festival but is all fit & healthy otherwise
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 28 Feb 16 16:47
Thanks, Jb
By:
sageform
When: 28 Feb 16 19:29
I would not take Gibralfaro's first run as a guide to his ability. He was only asked to race from 2 furlongs out and still made up 10 lengths to win. His second run is a better guide to his ability but Alan King doesn't seem to rate him so you may be right.
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 28 Feb 16 23:21
All i know about this race is that it's an absolute mine field! Will do well to find the winner this year imo! Just as easily as them at the head of the market could win, so could a lot of those at the bottom of the market also. Can see there being another Countrywide Flame or Tiger Roll type lurking!
By:
Fashion Fever
When: 28 Feb 16 23:46
really impressed with zubayr must have huge chance
By:
WHOKNOWSTHEBOWLER
When: 29 Feb 16 08:20
WHO DARES WINS - Seems to be missed, he won the race at Doncaster by 20l that Peace & Co also won easily last year, before winning the Triumph. He then only got beat 3 3/4 lengths on punishing heavy ground that he hated at Cheltenham in the grade 2 Protek des Flos won. He also went for home to soon as he was travelling so well, and the first 2 came from the back - good judges said he looked the winner for most the race.
He is by Jeremy (USA) and Alan King has said he will be even better when he gets some decent ground - A. King clearly thinks he has a massive chance in the Triumph and he knows a thing or two about training Triumph winners. 
Looks a massive bet at 14/1 still in places.
By:
impossible123
When: 29 Feb 16 08:51
Footpad, another inmate of WPM that's improving and also has the best juvenile form eg beating Let's Dance, a much thought off stablemate and Ivanovich Gorbatov in his latest run, seemed to be friendless over the weekend. Any reason to be concerned Mr Mullins and/or those close to the yard?
By:
Harvester
When: 29 Feb 16 09:00
I agree Bowler. WDW offers the value in this race for me. Trainer really likes him and better ground will help.
By:
buddeliea
When: 29 Feb 16 12:19
Hope so!!
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 29 Feb 16 12:40
hendo when asked about his horses chance  hinted  there is a "monster" waiting to be unleashed from nicholls yard if as expected it was zubyar then he must be taken seriously ,have backed conetable but looking for some backup and if this fella drifts to a better price I would have some ,  connections aim  their better juveniles at the Adonis and it was probably a  high class field ,big drift on the winner but still won well should improve a bundle and one to take seriously imo. wether the brit juveniles  are better thn the irish is another matter .
By:
impossible123
When: 29 Feb 16 15:41
At just about a point bigger than Ivanovich Gorbatov (IG) I'd have IG over Zubayr in the Triumph or even Gibralfaro at levels should they next meet on soft ground or over 20f on good because I think the marked change in going and 7lbs concession proved too much for Gibralfaro over the weekend.
By:
scooby91
When: 29 Feb 16 18:56
Willie said apples jade footpad and let's dance run in the triumph and that "he can't see past footpad in the race"
By:
stevo1
When: 29 Feb 16 21:44
Adonis winner has good record of following up in Triumph,bit short but on at 6/1.
By:
impossible123
When: 29 Feb 16 22:03
"WPM can't see past Footpad for the Triumph" - how peculiar? No one wanted Footpad at 20/1 from 13 over the weekend!
By:
sageform
When: 01 Mar 16 08:39
What is so surprising about Zubayr's win on Saturday is that he has been the talking horses for months for the Triumph but still started at pretty big odds in the Adonis. Those "in the know" must either have thought that he needed the run or didn't think he was as good as the early hype. We now know that he is and providing he takes the race well, should improve for the run.
By:
paulo47
When: 01 Mar 16 09:30
Agree fully with Bowler , also see WDW as one of the quickest jumpers and now should get a decent tow from Azzuri .
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 01 Mar 16 10:25
sage, from listening to PN on the Morning Line, I think he felt the horse was just a bit immature. He actually picked his other runner as the most likely of his two to win, and said that a couple of weeks prior to the race, he thought Zubayr probably wouldnt run this season. THink he thought the horse was as good as the hype, just maybe not ready yet. Agree he should improve significantly for the first run, just as Connetable did.
By:
shockster
When: 07 Mar 16 15:38
Just watched the RacingUK Cheltenham preview and Henderson gave a good shout for CONSUL DE THAIX and says it runs.  Was amazed at the price on here so had a dabble.  He was 3rd in the Triumph trial at Cheltenham behind Protek Des Flos (also Hendersons and won since, but he says won't run) Clan Des Obeaux now 16/1 and just in front of Who Dares wins a 14/1 shot.  Henderson says he expects it to come out on top against those as has improved since and that was its only run for the yard.  NICE PRICE in a wide open contest.
By:
impossible123
When: 07 Mar 16 16:16
Who Dares Wins (WDW) ran keen then along with Clan Dess Obeaux (CDO) hence cut each other's throat according to their trainers; the price of Consul De Thaix is indeed tempting but receiving 7lbs and 4lbs respectively though. I cannot fancy IG and Zubayr at those prices, but value could be had with Footpad at 10/1 with S..bet (nrnb and free bet if a loser) I think.
By:
shockster
When: 07 Mar 16 16:36
Yeah, I was at Chelt that day and actually backed CDO & I appreciate that Consul De Thaix was getting weight but it was only his 2nd ever run and first for Henderson.  Sounded like Henderson thought quite a bit of him and he'd come on.  Anyway you don't need much on at 3 figures.  Like I say it tempted me.
By:
charwell.
When: 07 Mar 16 20:38
Hendo said Protek Des Flos may be a bit weak. He didn't say he won't run.

I fancy him.
By:
scooby91
When: 07 Mar 16 21:22
Chatwell. Pretty sure he confirmed he won't be running. But as long as your on nrnb your fine.
By:
impossible123
When: 08 Mar 16 19:15
Zubayr challenging IG for 'fav', how absurd is that? The former was receiving 7lbs, and IG comprehensively beaten in their previous races. On the other hand, Footpad, the conqueror on IG, is on the drift.
By:
impossible123
When: 10 Mar 16 15:43
Any further update on Leoncavallo? I really fancy this horse, and at 80 on the Exchange I hope it is still on track for the Triumph next week.

Zubayr is just 'fav' here at 6.8, and IG has drifted to 7; Seau Royal has eased but Footpad and WDW contracted to about 13.
By:
mrglovesthosetins
When: 10 Mar 16 18:04
Lads when IG won the ground was Heavy, when he got beat it was Soft/Heavy - listening to the skybet preview from last night the ground when he got beat was described as Bottomless, i cant get my head around some of these going descriptions as you had your man on C4 from Leopardstown saying it was Soft/Heavy but good racing ground and then youve got others saying it was Bottomless. Watching all of the races that day there weren't half a lot of tired horses.
By:
scooby91
When: 10 Mar 16 18:30
Impossible. Leoncavallo is still on track for the triumph.
I seen an interview yesterday. He said he can't see why one horse is 7s (sceau royal) and 1 is 33/1 on there previous meetings.
I haven't backed SR but I do really like him,
By:
scooby91
When: 10 Mar 16 18:33
This interview was yesterday with Emma Spencer.

But he is particularly bullish about the chances of Jaleo in the Fred Winter, a 14/1 chance and another who hacked up at Catterick on his last start.

“I think he is great each-way value. I’m very pleased with him.”

Leoncavallo is another contender who he thinks has been underestimated by the layers. “He was upsides the leaders at the Paddy Power meeting at Cheltenham when he unseated. The horse he beat at Wetherby before that, Sceau Royal, is a 7/1 shot and he’s 33/1 so I think he’s another with decent value.”

Pengai Pavilion was ‘off colour’ when beaten last time out but had won his previous three starts, and  Ferguson not writing off his chances in the Supreme, while although big World Hurdle outsider Aqalim is a ‘monkey’, he could run a big race ‘if he wanted to’.

“We’ve got a great team of horses and just hope they all do themselves justice,” he added.
By:
scooby91
When: 10 Mar 16 18:36
Charwell.
Henderson mentioned protek des flos as still a possible runner last night, fehily would take the ride.
By:
roobuck
When: 10 Mar 16 18:52
If people on IG at big prices before his first run fair enough.

If people backed IG post debut I can understand, sort of, justifying that he may still win and reasons why.

But his current price against those who beat him fair and square is frankly ridiculous and the worst value of any current favourite.

Of course he could win but why would anyone back him now at these prices?
By:
the bloob
When: 10 Mar 16 19:18
Leoncavallo is a crazy price, a few quid at 48 on here
By:
mrglovesthosetins
When: 10 Mar 16 19:21
Of course he could win but why would anyone back him now at these prices?

When the ground has dried out to near Good on the last day ive got a funny feeling JPM will be having a few bob on this around 5/1 6/1.
By:
impossible123
When: 10 Mar 16 19:23
scooby

Thank-you for the update on the Ferguson's runners.

I do like Leoncavallo particularly with the long run and uphill finish where Leoncavallo excelled on when he beat SR at Wetherby. And at 33/1 or 80 here (now 48) I think it is good value for e/w (13 for a place here) at least.

I'd lay Zubayr at 2/1 or less for a place because I believe it is too inexperienced and the race he won at Kempton (I understand Zarkandar (blah, blah, blah) does not represent the best form to me; I think the Irish contingent would back IG, Let's Dance and Footpad on the day.
By:
roobuck
When: 10 Mar 16 19:51
So @mrgloves, you saying he ran 'poorly' so JP could get a price?
By:
mrglovesthosetins
When: 10 Mar 16 20:03
Not implying that what soever, IG had a stoned foot or something apparently, the ground wasnt to his liking, the money for it that day suggested they were expecting a better run than what actually took place. I think the money will come for it.
By:
charwell.
When: 10 Mar 16 20:44
Cheers Scooby Grin
By:
impossible123
When: 10 Mar 16 21:16
Bet with your head and not your heart; if IG was trained by someone else its price now will be nearer 25/1 instead of 6/1.
By:
wellchief
When: 12 Mar 16 10:21
Finally went through this race the other day (never an antepost race for me), and the two against the field for me now are Footpad and Let's Dance (both 12's but backed both at 14 the other day).

The visor made a big difference to Footpad last time out, and whilst it was a worry that he was off the bridle quite early, the way he picked up round the home turn was very impressive.  Good ground at Cheltenham would be the biggest worry as all his winning is on heavy and soft, and especially the way he accelerated in almost unraceable ground last time, suggest he wants a decent bit of cut.

That said, Mullins said he "can't get passed Footpad", and that's good enough for me.

Let's Dance has bags of ability and travels through her race with lots of class.  I thought she might be a bit of a bridle merchant, but the way she rallied last time to almost get second shows she isn't.  Last time out she front ran, in desperate ground and was a sitting duck for something in behind.  The way she travels, I think better ground will bring improvement, and although she was AP favourite before the start of the season, she has ran creditably in defeat on both occasions.

With something like Azurri in the field going off like a nutter, she won't have to front run this time, and I think she'll have a huge chance.  I'd assume Ruby is likely to be on her too.

Both trained by Mullins, and very rare you get two Mullins runners with solid G1 form going into the festival at double figure prices.  His record in this race, compared to something like the Supreme or Neptune, is a bit of a worry, but he is the master novice hurdler trainer, and at the prices, these'll do for me.
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