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Ante Post Musings- Triumph Hurdle

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Replies: 242
By:
impossible123
When: 24 Feb 16 12:27
Adrien Du Pont (ADP) is 9/2 for the Adonis and I think there is value to be had there; ADP is actually rated 1lb superior to Gibralfaro (G). The newcomer, Zubayr, who is receiving 7lbs from ADP and G could be anything but at 11/4 must be restricted to those with inside info and not Joe public.

Should ADP run creditably, and if winning, will pay a massive boost to Sceau Royal (SR) and Leoncavallo, the latter's price for the Triumph has been 10x that of SR (7/1) ie 79/1!
By:
mrglovesthosetins
When: 24 Feb 16 12:51
ADU just about beat Chic off 127 at chepstow - not for me.
By:
impossible123
When: 24 Feb 16 13:17
Gibralfaro (G) is 16 here and Connetable, a horse that G has beaten when forced to make the running, yet is 10 - how absurd is that especially the speed G showed with over 4l to make up after the last hurdle to win?
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 24 Feb 16 14:17
I dont think its absurd at all. Gibralfaro was race fit that day having had three runs that season already and PN said Connetable wasnt and really needed the run... he'd been off for 8 months. I know who I would back of those two if they met again....
By:
scooby91
When: 24 Feb 16 16:39
Adrien du pont dosent run in the adonis he runs sunday with pilansberg and zubayr running for there triumph place in the adonis
By:
maelduin
When: 24 Feb 16 16:54
Maybe it's just me but PN seems very coy about Zubayr. He's either a machine and doesn't want to hype him up or his owner just spent a fortune on a nice four-year-old. Really thought we'd hear a bit more about him given his popularity in the sales ring. Guess Saturday will tell all.
By:
impossible123
When: 24 Feb 16 17:11
If ADP is a non-runner in the Adonis will Gibralfaro go off odd-on?
By:
scooby91
When: 24 Feb 16 17:24
Personally I don't think he's value  as there's a huge unknown. Khezerabad pilansberg and zubayr. Zubayr the best breeding but worse flat form of the 3. Pilansberg very good flat form beating the wolf catcher very easily and running erupt to under 2 lengths who's a very classy horse, has also finished infront of khezerabad on the flat. But I wouldn't rule him out in any way for a switch to hurdles
By:
stevo1
When: 24 Feb 16 19:22
When was Gibralfaro 16 on here?
By:
impossible123
When: 24 Feb 16 22:14
Sorry, Gibralfaro was 13 (think I was looking at Who dares Wins price) when I posted this afternoon but now it is 10.
By:
charwell.
When: 25 Feb 16 00:22
Protek Des Flos interests me.

C&D winner and 2 from 2 for Henderson. Has a bit to find on the book but trainer has done well in this race with similar french breds like Zaynar.

20/1 in places and I think he is only entered here so likely to be shorter on the day.
By:
sc1883
When: 25 Feb 16 07:39
id wait till nrnb charwell on PDF. Trainer says may not be mature enough for the rough and tumble of the triumph/festival and skip it. if a runner i agree about the price being value!
By:
Jb23
When: 25 Feb 16 16:39
Would personally be worried about the trip being too sharp for him on good ground Charwell. Thought he outstayed them at Trials day in an absolute bog. Also thought the same at Sandown last week, just outclassed everything. Think he is personally crying out for a trip and a fence, given the way he shaped last week. Agree with SC though, NRNB and he turns up, 20-1 is a great value based on your points!
By:
scooby91
When: 26 Feb 16 16:59
Really looking forward to seeing pilansberg tomorrow in the adonis.
Have very high hopes for this one.
By:
knot in wood
When: 26 Feb 16 17:19
interesting jockey bookings scooby.
By:
scooby91
When: 26 Feb 16 17:27
Already backed him for tomorrow earlier in the week knowing adp wouldn't run in this and goes Sunday. Was told to look out for this and peak to peak (who's been scratched for the triumph) a while back at the owners stable tour.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 26 Feb 16 17:46

Feb 26, 2016 -- 4:59PM, scooby91 wrote:


Really looking forward to seeing pilansberg tomorrow in the adonis. Have very high hopes for this one.


Scooby, have you watched the race where Pilansberg beat Wolfcatcher? Your comment earlier says he won easily and the in running comments suggest the same?

It's just looking at the weights - Wolfcatcher gave him 4lbs + Cheminaud claimed 4lbs - Wolfcatcher has to give him 4lbs again tomorrow but has the advantage of 2 previous hurdle runs - I doubt he'd have been in love with the ground in either of those runs also.

So on the bare numbers the disparity in their prices for tomorrow looks too big but if Pilansberg hacked up whn they met previously..?

By:
scooby91
When: 26 Feb 16 17:59
He hacked up watched it on france galop.
I really fancy him but you can't use that form as a fact when obviously it's a completely different discipline, same as him beating khezerabad.
Khezerabad could improve for a hurdle.
But Imo if pilansberg takes to hurdles and id be assuming he has has for the mere fact they've thrown him in the deep end he could be very very good. Going to have to win or atleast finished 2nd here to go to the triumph, Same with zubayr. I have the same stake on both for the triumph but pilansberg has been ridiculous prices on here
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 26 Feb 16 18:04
thanks
By:
scooby91
When: 26 Feb 16 18:29
One thing I forgot to mention, Sam diddnt have the option to ride zubayr as nick schofield has been schooling him all year.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 26 Feb 16 18:39
yep, I'm struggling to see why Zubayr is shorter than Pilansberg to be honest, Pilansberg owned by same (or similar) connections to Dodging Bullets.

It's a bit of a guessing game, Nicholls early season stable tour suggests Zubayr might need time after being gelded whereas they have n't felt the need to geld Pilansberg. I would n't be that surprised to see one or the other on the flat over the summer either.

Anyway getting ahead of myself, let's see what happens tomorrow...
By:
scooby91
When: 27 Feb 16 14:06
I'll hold my hands up. Pilansberg was very poor and I was wrong.
Very happy with zubayr who backed at start of rhw season. he better go to the triumph now.
By:
wellchief
When: 27 Feb 16 14:09
Backed Azzuri @ 100 on here for the Triumph in running when about 20 lengths clear.  That'll do me - formlines into this race are all over the place, so tiny stakes for a little bit of interest for me.
By:
scooby91
When: 27 Feb 16 14:17
I already backed zubayr my first big bet in the triumph that I posted on here at 20s but I was put off when I went to the yard and they wasnt sure he'd be ready in time . Nice when a bet you almost thought was lost comes back in a big way.
By:
ImSoLuckyLucky!
When: 27 Feb 16 15:57
I wasnt blown away by the Adonis winner
Just looked at his time
Slower than the Dovecote carrying 8 lb less

Not for me at 6-1

Wink
By:
Jb23
When: 27 Feb 16 15:58
Scooby- Where can you watch French replays?
By:
scooby91
When: 27 Feb 16 16:11
jb 23 you can watch on france gallop or arqana. you get a free trial then you have to buy credits works out about 10p a race but if your backing larger sums, id rather know what im backing. although pilansberg was obviously poor, cashed out my bet for a 10% loss with 365. should have backed zubayr with them too last night, and also cashed out if lost  but I was happy with what I already had on.


04 Sep 2015 15:46

JCB Triumph Hurdle

Outright Ante Post, Zubayr, 20/1 Single £40.00 (Pot. Ret. £840.00)

Open
By:
Jb23
When: 27 Feb 16 16:13
Nice! Cheers mate. I'll check that out. Whats your best position in the Triumph?
By:
scooby91
When: 27 Feb 16 16:18
I don't even know. iv thrown a few darts and got no idea whats going to win, iv backed.
footpad 25s
Adrien du pont 25s runs tomorrow if dosent win, wont line up.
allblak des places 25s
zubayr 20s
pilansberg 75s and 40s ew (cashed out for 10% loss)
peak to peak 220.0 scratched from the race.

ill leave it at that and take my chances.
By:
scooby91
When: 27 Feb 16 16:20
and ivanovich gorabatov at 14s to a small stake.  though if i backed on betfair id lay it off.
By:
impossible123
When: 27 Feb 16 19:52
As expected a change in the going and 7lb weight concession to Zubayr proved too much for Gibralfaro; Zubayr ran very well as a 1st timer nevertheless at 7/1 is just too skinny in my opinion; Azzuri, the runner up and beaten 3.75l, finished way down the field to Charbel.
By:
buddeliea
When: 28 Feb 16 08:02
Weren't that impressed yesterday,but no doubt Zabayr will improve for the run.
He will have to.
By:
roobuck
When: 28 Feb 16 09:28
Well I for one was fairly impressed especially in terms of the form we've seen this year for the Triumph. Yes it was a strange race, but if all bar the long term leader had their own race, he won easily. He picked up that leader actually quite readily and the fact that didn't go along way clear perhaps says more about his inexperience. Also thought on the whole he jumped very well.

For me the stiffer course and the likely pace of the Triumph will only serve in his favour and whilst current price isn't that appealing, don't see one I'd rather back in front of him
By:
Jb23
When: 28 Feb 16 09:51
Anyone know what the situation is with Leoncavello? I'm personally all over Sceau Royal for the Triumph but can't work out why one is 6-1 and the other is 33-1 given their formline together
By:
the bloob
When: 28 Feb 16 09:58
it doesn't look like Zubayr beat much yesterday, I'm sure the horse will come on for the experience though. It didn't seem to settle very well and drifted massively in running (traded over 100 for a few quid) despite never being out of contention. It's hard to believe it's under 7/1 now, plenty others with better form in the book and much bigger prices
By:
the bloob
When: 28 Feb 16 10:09
yes, jb23, Leoncavallo is very interesting especially with NRNB available at 33/1. It also looks like the likely better ground will suit too
By:
scooby91
When: 28 Feb 16 10:50
Jb23 leoncavallo goes to triumph according to an article I found last night by John ferguson.  Despite stating I wouldn't back another I took all the 100.0 about leoncavallo as o diddnt realise allblakdesplaces had been scratched. that will do me.

Ferguson has had just eight runners and a single winner in February but his yard is full of horses that were bred to win middle-distance Classics and his overall strike rate this season is 31%. When, or if, spring ground appears, his prolific early-season form is likely to return as well.

Wolfcatcher, who lines up against several other useful juveniles in the Adonis Hurdle at Kempton, is a typically blue-blooded runner from the Ferguson stable, by King’s Best out of a Sadler’s Wells mare. He is quoted at 20-1 for the Fred Winter and bigger for the Triumph, though he could yet miss Cheltenham and head for Aintree instead.

“I worked him on Tuesday before I left and I was delighted with him,” Ferguson said. “He’s the sort of horse that I’m hoping will really be suited by some better ground at Kempton. He’s done nothing wrong, he won at Market Rasen early in the season and then came back and got beaten by Dan Skelton’s horse [Kasakh Noir]. He fluffed the second-last and I think if he’d jumped that a bit better, he might have finished a short-head in front. He deserves to take his chance and we’ll know a lot more about him afterwards.

“I’ve also got Leoncavallo for the Triumph, who I’m very happy with, and [the third-favourite] Jaleo for the Fred Winter, so we might decide to go for the Grade One juvenile at Aintree instead. The whole point of tomorrow is to decide which one of those three routes we are going to take.”

Ferguson’s entries for the Festival also include Penglai Pavilion, who finished fifth in the 2013 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and took a valuable novice hurdle at Cheltenham earlier in the season. His best chance to saddle a Cheltenham Festival winner at the final attempt, however, could come in the Bumper, the target for the five-year-old High Bridge.

Even by Ferguson’s standards, High Bridge has a pedigree from the top drawer. He is by Monsun, an outstanding sire of stayers whose offspring include Estimate, the Queen’s Ascot Gold Cup winner, and consecutive Melbourne Cup winners in Fiorente and Protectionist. His dam, meanwhile, was Ameerat, the winner of the 1,000 Guineas in 2001.
By:
maelduin
When: 28 Feb 16 12:28
A lot to like about Zubayr yesterday. Ran very green and was doing his best work at the end. Looks like he'll be suited by the pace and stamina test of the Triumph. Wouldn't swap him for anything else at this moment.
By:
impossible123
When: 28 Feb 16 12:31
Good to know Leoncavallo is in good nick and ready for the Triumph and the long uphill finish at Cheltenham is just what he relishes.
By:
mrglovesthosetins
When: 28 Feb 16 13:13
I cant see past the front 2 at presnt - doesnt look at deep heat at all, i dont fancy Sceau Royal, i was hoping Adrien Du Pont ran today and told me more about that form.
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