Cheltenham Festival
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Ante Post Musings- Triumph Hurdle
Ante Post Musings- Triumph Hurdle
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Replies: 242
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tenuous i know
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Another interesting Nicholls runner is Tommy Silver,running in the triumph trial at Musselburgh on Sunday, only just beaten by Fixe Le Kap on debut after looking the winner half way up the run in,the winner is now 2nd fav for the triumph, be interesting to see how he gets on,is available at 33s for cheltenham.
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Very happy with that my 2 plays foot pad and allblak des places ran a cracker. I was very hopeful today but I diddnt expect that with all the ivanovich gorbitov and let's dance hype
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Backed zubayr 20/1 footpad 25/1 allblakdesplaces 25/1 and pilansberg 70.0. Thought all may be lost, But very happy to be back in the game.
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And adrien du pont 25/1 who dosent look like lining up, but he he does.
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I've never liked the triumph.
But 25/1 Gibralfaro and 33/1 Connetbale is changing my mind  |
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Have to say absolutely no idea who wins the triumph at all.
Looking good though ccm. |
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What's happened today has simply made the Triumph a lot more open than it seemed to be this morning.
Form become a complete load of mumble jumble in Ireland,and the Brits have about 10 to consider now. |
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A race I never get involved in, and don't plan to this year either. Today's racing has already shown how wayward 4 yo form is, with all improving at different rates etc, it's near impossible.
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Just read the irish racing press comments
The winner was anchored last The jockey said the leaders went too fast All 3 mullins runners going for the Triumph  |
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What has happened to Leoncavallo? It has good form against Sceau Royal.
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I also have a few quid on Apples Jade at 25/1. Her form has taken a bit of a boost today.
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Got a feeling that race in Ireland today is very strong form and any one of the three mullins horses could win the triumph.
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Got a feeling that race in Ireland today is very strong form and any one of the three mullins horses could win the triumph.
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CCM, depends on how you look at it. Apples Jade was boosted because she beat Footpad, but then Jers Girl was put in her place, so you can look at it either way.
On a different note, I'd like to see one of those two up against Limini in the Mares Novice Hurdle |
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On a different note, I wouldn't!
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Haha, you won't like what I've just put on the Connetable thread either mate
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You're right. I didn't. Keep your opinions to yourself will you
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Agree that could have been a decent race at Leopardstown today. If you say that IG's mistakes cost him some ground, then the form was quite believable. I wonder if more patient tactics could see Lets Dance to better effect? Looked all over the winner turning in only to fade and then run on again. Perhaps a waiting ride on better ground could see it come with a sustained late challenge. Think there could be more improvement too. I wouldn't want to be laying 8-1 about IG either - think he could bounce back as well.
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Delsie totally agree re LD (and IG) but wouldnt hold out much hope of him being run with more restraint -
Dicosimo led Petite Parisienne - tracked Dicosimo Abbyssial - led Diakali - led Darroun - contested lead its a reaaly tough race to win from the front imo |
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IG was nearly on the floor at the middle flight down the back straight, then totally hashed up the second last. This race was run 17 seconds slow on soft to heavy with the race in which IG won it was heavy and only 20 seconds slow (The apples Jade race the day before on the same track and distance was 28 seconds slow and they carried less weight). Barry didnt seem comfortable on him through out the race imho but he showed a bit of foot to get back into the race turning into the home straight and then he wasnt to hard on him coming home. I think youll see a different IG if he turns up on the Friday, itll hopefully be better/faster ground, he'll be ridden more prominently, able to jump better out of it and poss be able to show a bit of flat speed against the more NH types. Id also say the win and bad ground in December might have taken a bit out of him too and you can forgive that run yesterday. Hopefully yesterday wont have a lasting affect on him and if use were backing him beforehand @ 3/1 to win the Triumph i cant see why use wont go in again at the 8's +. If he lines up and is around 8/1 ill be going in again no bother about that.
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I think you may be clutching at a straws mrgloves, if you read Barrys comments after the race,he said he was taken off his feet by the fast pace and that's why he made mistakes,an always fast run,rough triumph in a bigger field on better ground hardly sounds ideal.
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wouldnt bother me if he got beat at w/e (unless he runs like theres a problem) - wont be his conditions at all and will provide opportunity to top up hopefully.
MR G - i knew you'd come round to my way of thinking in the end |
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well my bubble only lasted 5 seconds before it was soundly burst hey ho
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Im no Barry but the evidence in the times suggets to me the race in December was a better race than the one yesterday (ie worse ground) and ill go as far to say it was most prob run at a faster pace - lets see if hes turns up in March and we'll go from there but if hes 8/1+ ill be with him more.
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Of course that is possible but I like 16s for let's dance 25s for allblak,both look like proper tough staying types and both jump really well,mullins confirmed they are running and they look value to me.
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Its all about opinions and thats what this great game is all about, as i said if he turns up and is around 8's+ ill take me chance, he didnt travel nor jump as good as he did first time up and to be honest he wasnt beat that far considering the trials and tribulations of his race, everyone has an off day and those for me in both of his hurdle starts werent ideal conditions. Good Luck All.
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Well I backed IG after his win for the TH and I am guilty of ruling out horses after one bad run but honestly can't see IG doing anything at Cheltenham on yesterdays evidence. I know the ground was bad but he never travelled or jumped at all, I hope I'm wrong I really do but I think the bubbles well and truly burst.
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Bigger price for JP
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I think O'Brien has made the same mistake as Mullins has in the past. Putting a horse into a hot Grade 1 after one win in a maiden hurdle. Not that I know better than either of them, but there's been loads of occasions where there is the second coming after a maiden, only to get turned over in a G1 next time out (Tell Us More last year springs to mind).
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owner had one in last years deloitte wc
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Do you mean Alvisio Ville MS? That backs up my belief even more.
He was never ready for that race, but he was around second fav for the Supreme and Neptune before that race. He got turned over in that race, and then never did anything after, the same as Tell Us More. I've no idea if pitching them into these G1's has a negative effect on their career, but I think a steadier, build them up slowly approach is better. I'm sure people will start to mention names were one has gone from a maiden to G1 success, but overall in general terms, I'm not a fan at all. |
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I feel sorry for outspoken backers and I'm not one of them, could have put him in an easy maiden and gave him some confidence. Because allblak des places ran a cracker yesterday imo. And outspoken looked like getting to him in his previous race.
Looks one for the supreme or neptune next year. |
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The funny thing is that with Alvisio Ville just before the Deloitte last year, Ruby was saying how much he would have liked to ride AV over Nichols Canyon! AV had worked all over NC in a piece of work earlier in the week, just goes to show homework doesn't always play out on the racecourse and even the likes of Ruby are wrong.
I see Mr McCoy is saying don't write off IG but that's off a man who picked At Fishers Cross over More Of That, another example of a top class jockey who's judgement wasn't as top class |
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Anyone remember Fiscal Focus last year? Beat a 'dog' called Kalkir (Triumph 'fav' for a long while), then pitched against Hurricane Fly, Arctic fire and Co in the Irish Champion and stuffed 42.5l!
I think Ivanovich Gorbatov has been over-rated mainly due to connections; the horse was not near perfect with its jumping yesterday - a novice, did not expect more - but would not have won if it did; also I believe the field would not trouble the likes of Gibralfaro, Sceau Royal, Who Dares Win, etc, in the Triumph next month. |
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A bit of interesting reading/splits for you, IG won on Heavy ground in Deecember and by my time the race took 4.05.00, the race yesterday of Soft/Heavy took 4.03.00, from jumping the last to the line in December IG done it in 13 seconds going away, the race yesterday from jumping the last to the line was done in 16 seconds. When IG won the first flight and so forth was jumped at 14 secs, 50 ,1.06, 2.01, 2.22, 2.39, 3.17 3.52 and finished at 4.05 the race yesterdays figs 12 secs first flight, 0.48, 1.04, 1.54, 2.18, 2.32, 3.10, 3.47 and finished at 4.03. So yesterdays race was run at a slightly faster pace on slightly better ground but IG finished off his race far better when he won compared to yesterdays race and on worse ground. Obviously im not sure if the rails/hurdles were in exactly the same places for each of the two races in question.
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I thought Tommy Silver won as he should have done there,another one to add to the picture, this year's triumph is fascinating.
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Kasakh Noir runs tomorrow at Mkt Rasen. After winning very easily on debut he couldn't give 10lb to Fixe Le Cap and Tommy Silver but with hindsight that now doesn't look as disappointing as it did at first, as both have scored again. He looks like a strong travelling horse who needs to come off a decent pace, which he didn't get last time. He might not even get that tomorrow and has also a decent horse to beat in Wolfcatcher but I'm confident he'll win off level weights. However he will get the pace in the Triumph.
Skelton has talked highly of him and I would think the Triumph is the plan as the Owner is Tim Radford and he is sponsoring The Gold Cup so (purely my theory) expect he'd like a runner on the Friday. Hopefully a good win tomorrow will see his odds tumble from a very tempting 33/1. It does seem a big price compared to FLC 8/1 IMO. |
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Just to add. I'm also on Who Dares Wins and Lets Dance FWIW.
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Im not in bad company, Noel and Anthony arnt bad judges, all that 8/1 has been hoovered up, keep the faith IG fans the confidence and moneys coming again.
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