Cheltenham Festival

Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
16 Mar 15 22:21
Date Joined: 05 Oct 05
| Topic/replies: 37 | Blogger: nickdundee's blog
Would he have won bar the mistake two out?
Pause Switch to Standard View Zarkandar - World Hurdle Run
Show More
Report CVByrne March 16, 2015 9:30 PM GMT
Who knows, but he'd have had every chance alright had he jumped it well he'd have been right in Cole Hardens heels and still travelling well.

I'm more than happy to have nailed my colours to Zarkandar for the race. He'd have at worst gone very close had he jumped that 2nd last.
Report Can't Catch Me March 16, 2015 10:34 PM GMT
Not for me. The winner just kept finding and looked like he had ample more.
Report CVByrne March 16, 2015 10:54 PM GMT
Point is nobody knows at all, I've no doubt Zark would have been delivered to challenge after the last. If he could have got by is the question nobody can answer.

Zarkandar is best fresh and Nicholls had said he was going to run in French Champion Hurdle after the World Hurdle. I wonder if he'll be too tempted by Aintree to try make amends.
Report Can't Catch Me March 16, 2015 10:58 PM GMT
Well obviously nobody knows. Point is, the Op asked the hypothetical question, so I gave my hypothetical opinion.
Report CVByrne March 16, 2015 11:05 PM GMT
I'm confident Zark would have beaten him. I was hugely confident in Zark for this race, he was my bet of the meeting at the prices available. Cole Harden was game but nothing was there to challenge him after Zarks mistake.

Annie Power, Zarkandar, No More Heroes, Djakadam. So many so close.
Report walllace007 March 16, 2015 11:36 PM GMT
Granted it was a bad mistake, but i don't think it affected the result.
I mean if Zark was finishing fast and eating into Cole Hardens lead then maybe but if anything he won going away, final margin 6.5 lengths.. Same last year, he just looks one paced at the end of his races.
Report CVByrne March 16, 2015 11:43 PM GMT
It's not about how much lengths he was beaten by. The key is how many strides it takes for a horse to fully fill his lungs again and get back up to speed, it takes about 8 strides vets say. If it was earlier in the race and he was still beaten 6.5l then I'd agree with the view. But the mistake was at the worst time, right when he would have been right on the heels of Cole Harden and at the point in the race when the pace was quickening. Instead he lost his momentum and even worse his place, he was stuck behind Saphir.
Report sintonian March 17, 2015 12:41 PM GMT
I'd like to think Zarkandar has more class than the winner but you never know what he would have found in the finish. I think Aintree is next as he had a long break before that.
Report callitasucit March 17, 2015 1:05 PM GMT
I backed the winner, and if was pushed about what would have happened, I would make Zarkandar 1.7 to have won.

He would have landed on Cole Hardens tail, Fehily would have slip streamed him down to the last, and gone for the gun there. He may not have battled to the line when in front, but I think what is pretty certain is that he would have been done at sub 1.3.
Report Can't Catch Me March 17, 2015 1:47 PM GMT
I know it s a bit of a pointless debate, but I just couldnt disagree more.

I firstly dont think he loses quite as much momentum as is being suggested. It looked more awkward than the reality imo, although I do accept they are stayers and its harder to get going after such an incident.

But when they turn off the final bend, by which time Fehily has had time to get him back on an even keel, he is a couple of lengths ahead of At Fishers Cross and probably 4 lengths behind the eventual winner. By the time they hit the line he is virtually level with AFC and nearly 8 lengths behind the winner.

We can analyse just how much momentum was lost, which is the biggest imponderable, but its hard to say he was unlucky when he doesnt even close the gap to the winner at any point from the last bend or even run that same portion of the race as quickly as At Fishers Cross.
Report nickdundee March 17, 2015 10:58 PM GMT
Couldn't disagree more Can't Catch Me!

You don't think he loses much momentum? If you watch the reply you can actually see Zarkandars head scrub against the turf and Noel Fehily nearly fell off him...It was clearly a significant error. The fact that he stayed on into 3rd was amazing. He dropped to about 8th place after that mistake two out.

I would agree with CVByrne in that in having a true proper stayer leading from the front was exactly what Zarkandar needed. It was set up perfectly for him.

It wasn't going to be like the Long Walk, Cole Harden would have stayed on up that hill, in staying up the hill I mean slowing down slower than the other horses. Given the way the race was run and how he travelled and even throw in his flat breeding, in my opinion he would have had that speed to stay up the hill the best.

Saphir was just plugging on one paced the whole way up the hill.
Report ACStafford March 17, 2015 11:39 PM GMT
He loses plenty of momentum. When a horse makes such a bad mistake at such a vital stage, it's rare to see them come back to finish third. Obviously no one can know for sure, but I reckon he'd have probably won.
Report Fashion Fever March 17, 2015 11:41 PM GMT
first mistake the horse has ever made
Report Gustavo_1000 March 18, 2015 12:02 AM GMT
TNO would of won if he hadn't...... Oh hang in wrong thread I must have been confused, what with the complete belief some people have in how a result would of changed.  At the end of the day Zarkandar did make a mistake,  but to say it cost him the race is  unfair to the winner. For all we know the winner would of just pulled out more or maybe  the way he ran the race took Zarkandar out of his comfort zone, after all it's unlike him to make jumping errors.  It happens all the time a horse appears to be unlucky , but when it gets a second chance to reverse a result it just finds a new excuse to get beat.
Report nickdundee March 18, 2015 8:02 AM GMT
Zarkandar was out of his comfort zone? He was absolutely running away with him coming down the hill, over the third last and coming down to the second.  Maybe you've only watched the race on once occasion...
Report wellchief March 18, 2015 8:26 AM GMT
Exactly Gustavo. Its called jumps racing. Annie Power would have won as easily as she liked but if you don't jump you don't win.

TNO was different because he was hampered. Zarkandar made the mistake all by himself and therefore Cole Harden was a worthy winner.
Report Gustavo_1000 March 18, 2015 11:21 AM GMT
Nickdundee I've seen it a few times and when I was there on the day I was surprised that zarkandar managed to finish 3rd after that mistake and at the time I thought he was unlucky, but that doesn't mean that he was going to win, we've seen it all before cantering all over RDS, but still managed to get beat. The excuse that time idling. I was a big fan of Zarkandar, but for me he seems to have amassed quite a lot of excuses over the years and after a while you stop thinking he was unlucky and just realise he just might not be good enough.
Report Can't Catch Me March 18, 2015 11:37 AM GMT
Couldn't disagree more Can't Catch Me!

You don't think he loses much momentum? If you watch the reply you can actually see Zarkandars head scrub against the turf and Noel Fehily nearly fell off him...It was clearly a significant error. The fact that he stayed on into 3rd was amazing. He dropped to about 8th place after that mistake two out.

Nick. This is the joy of jump racing imo! Two people can watch the same race and see completely different things... We are still talking over the imponderables, and about what might have been a week later.

I didnt say he didnt lose much momentum... I said he didnt lose as much as is being made out, ie. enough to cost him the race. And thats a big difference. But I just can't agree with what you say. You say he dropped to about 8th place when he made the error. Coming to the fence, he is in 6th place, and after he makes the mistake, is no worse than 7th or 8th. And in terms of lengths off the leader, he doesnt actually lose that much.

Because it happened at a downhill fence he is still moving forward when Fehily gathers him back together. Had it happened going uphill, he may have been stopped in his tracks right there. But the crux of it for me, is how much time he had to get himself going again. Its an awful long way from the final bend to the finishing line, and he doesnt gain a single yard on the winner... he actually loses ground. He doesnt even make up ground on the second, and actually loses ground on At Fishers Cross behind him.

One thing I forgot to say... is that I backed him!
Report buddeliea March 19, 2015 5:22 PM GMT
Absolutely no doubt that mistake cost him any chance of winning.
Whether he would have won will have to go down as we will never know.
Fwiw,I don't think he would have. But he was gonna be a whole lot closer,that's for sure.
Report Ramruma March 22, 2015 8:04 AM GMT
Zarkandar does not really stay, imo, and that may well be a contributing factor to the mistake happening in the first place.
Report alleged22 March 22, 2015 8:53 AM GMT
Report buddeliea March 22, 2015 8:55 AM GMT
I think he proved at Ascot that he stays 3 m,but I would have any money ya like that  Cole Harden has more stamina.

None of us can possibly be confident of what would have happened,it's just has to remain unknown.

Even if some time in the future both horses can turn up in rude health and compete against each other again without mishaps, we still could not be sure, but that's really the only way we might get some sort of idea what would have happened
Report Gustavo_1000 March 22, 2015 9:38 AM GMT
I just thought I'd mention that Cole Harden made a mistake at 2 hurdles in a row down the back and although they weren't bad mistakes his 2L lead was cut down to 1/2L and all of a sudden it looks like the whole field are ready to pounce in behind him. So really like Zarkandar he was UNLUCKY because he could of won by more!
Report ThunderRoad March 22, 2015 7:01 PM GMT
Just watched this again today.

I'd been doubtful of Zarkandar's ability to stay prior to the World Hurdle. My doubts have been erased. They went a searing gallop up front and, particularly with his bad mistake, there was every opportunity for him to not get up the hill. He battled on bravely.

I don't think he would have won regardless however. Cole Harden has Big-Bucks-esque battling qualities and would have outbattled him.

As to whether this was a vintage World Hurdle, it's difficult to be sure. I would say that Cole Harden ran up to a mark of around 167, with Saphir du Rheu/Zarkandar running to around 162, with At Fishers Cross on 160. Whisper, UTPT & Seeyouatmidnight were probably hitting marks of around 155.

Whilst Big Bucks was clearly 5 pounds better (at a bare minimum) than Cole Harden at his best, I'd nonetheless say this was a more in-depth field than any of the 4 he won and was probably underrated by most coming into the meeting. To take his last Cheltenham win, which was regarded as being the best quality wise, as an example then Smad Place was in third that day and he was a reliable 155 animal. There were 5 or 6 horses who ran to higher marks than him in this years contest.

12/1 Cole Harden for next years event looks a reasonable bet. He's a versatile horse with a good constitution and I'd be surprised if they sent him over the bigger obstacles. It'll certainly take a good one to knock him off his perch next season and there's nothing on the horizon of that kind of quality in my opinion, Annie Power notwithstanding.
Report Howdi March 23, 2015 1:37 PM GMT
I'll answer that one it was a crap World Hurdle imo Plain
Report buddeliea March 23, 2015 5:01 PM GMT
You can say what you like about this years race,but the fact remains the winner led all the way and weren't stopping.
He's a darn good staying hurdler,and could well rack up a couple more.
Fwiw I thought it was a pretty good one.
Report duffy March 26, 2015 4:54 PM GMT
After having watched it again to concentrate on Zarkandar, I don't believe he would have won, he was travelling very well before the mistake and although it was a bad enough mistake, I was still slightly disappointed with his effort after the mistake, in relation to how well he was going prior I would have been hoping for him to pick up better, it may be another example of what he thinks about things when something goes wrong and he comes under pressure, I'm of the view now that I wouldn't want to be with him up that hill these days when under the cosh.
Report gutfeeling March 26, 2015 5:00 PM GMT
Would Zarkandar have won without the mistake 2 out ?

Well one is a resolute galloper who doesn't mind a fight, The other is a dodgepot who will shirk a fight given the slightest opportunity, I think mistake or not Cole Harden wasn't for passing.
Report Ibrahima Sonko March 27, 2015 9:53 PM GMT
Im a massive zarkandar fan but i still have to be convinced him to be a true stayer, that aside i think it is silly to have a discussion about him  winning if he did not make that mistake 2 out.

We will only ever know if zarkandar proves it nto.
Report Orsoncart March 27, 2015 11:35 PM GMT
Very true, luckily the big guns were missing or swerved this year, can't have backed Zarkandar with anyone's money although for me ran better than expected
Report Howdi March 29, 2015 3:03 PM BST
why is it a silly discussion?
Report sintonian March 29, 2015 4:17 PM BST
Amazed how harsh people are on horses even when acknowleding it was a bad mistake. If that is the case, why not give him the benefit of the doubt? Who's to say that any other horse would not have downed tools completely. It was a proper error that was almost a fall.
Report sintonian March 29, 2015 4:21 PM BST
Btw, dodgepots do not win 9 hurdles race from 22 starts and amass over £800k in prize money. The only suspicion about this horse is his stamina not his temperament.
Report sintonian March 29, 2015 4:21 PM BST
Mid-division, headway when mistake, stumbled and nearly fell 2 out, ridden and stayed on approaching last, went 3rd run-in, never threatening to reach front pair (op 13/2 tchd 7/1 in places)
Report sintonian March 29, 2015 4:22 PM BST
RO in-running comments.
Report Howdi March 29, 2015 5:57 PM BST
Out of interest what price did the Zark go in running??? (I'd guess 9-4)
Report sintonian April 14, 2015 6:27 PM BST
Non stayer..?
Report Can't Catch Me April 14, 2015 8:40 PM BST
Looking that way I'd say Sint. Apart from one win in France, everything points to that being the case.
Report Orsoncart April 16, 2015 11:43 PM BST
Hypothetical but never in a month of Sunday's

You all keep backing it, I'll keep laying it.

Wait until Windsor Park annihilates it next yeAr although they will swerve chelters to Aintree.

Hopefully the canyon turns up to keep the price honest, at least until January anyway.
Post Your Reply
<CTRL+Enter> to submit
Please login to post a reply.


Instance ID: 13539