Forums

Cheltenham Festival

There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
CVByrne
23 Oct 14 13:04
Joined:
Date Joined: 14 Mar 06
| Topic/replies: 5,105 | Blogger: CVByrne's blog
Gold Cup thoughts. Last years race was a bit low quality in my opinion, like when Synchronised won, any kind of bunch finish points to an average quality renewal.

So lets start with The Giant Bolster, yes him. He came 2nd in 2012 was miles back in 4th in 2013 and was a close 3rd last season. That’s the horse to rate the race through. As such Lord Windermere looks an average winner, he won a race that was a bit of a mess in the end. On His Own at 10 that was his chance, he couldn’t get the win and it’s hard to see him winning it now as he’ll be 11 in March.

So to Silviniaco Conti, I have never believed Cheltenham is his track. He likes sharp flat tracks like Aintree and Kempton. Also it’s tough for him to try win the Gold Cup on his 3rd attempt at 9yo. I still think he is a considerable force in the King George & back at Aintree. I’ve no sligh for his talent, but horses for courses.

Bobs Worth will be 10 by March and is he good enough to emulate Kauto Star and regain his crown at that age? I don’t think so. His 3 big wins since his novice days have come on soft ground, I think on good ground – though he may prefer the surface – the race happens too fast for him and I think that’s why we saw him tire up the hill last season. Every horse is just going that bit quicker, jumping quicker. If you see his wins in Gold Cup and Lexus he came from behind and stayed past his rivals. I opposed him last season for these reasons and I’m even more comfortable opposing him again. No offence to Nicky Henderson but his Chasers don’t seem to have long careers at the top and it’s quite possible we’ll see some further decline.

In my opinion three horses who would have had a great chance to win didn’t actually run in the Gold Cup last season. Firstly Cue Card, I’ve always maintained he is a better horse going left handed than right, we know he prefers good ground and I think the relentless nature of the King George in that very soft ground took its toll on him and he tired. It’s interesting that he’s been given a wind op in the summer as they think his breathing is what stopped him that day. Also at Cheltenham he can get his breathers in the down hill sections. It’s a shame he missed the race as he is a really superb horse. He may well stay the trip, we really don’t know if he does or not. If he did he’s the best staying chaser in training round Cheltenham imo.

The next one is Boston Bob. There is lots of Mullins love these days but what he has done with this horse is a complete shambles. He fitted him with a tongue tie at Punchestown last season yet didn’t give him a wind op until Jan after his failed return to hurdling. Horses don’t see the form boost of the wind op until their 2nd race back after it, I think this could be due to a horse not knowing their limits have now changed until after they race again. At any rate this horse could have won last seaons Gold Cup had he been kept chasing and given a wind op last summer. Paul Nicholls would have won the Gold Cup with this horse. But he’ll be 10 in March and it’s a tough ask for him to win it at that age.

Finally is Sir Des Champs, he had so much improvement open to him from his 2nd to Bobs Worth in 2013. He would have relished the good ground last season, having his regular jock on his back. I believe the 7l he lost to Bobs Worth were exaggerated by him being on empty after a prolonged duel with Long Run cost them both in lengths at the end. I hope he comes back as good as ever but it sounds like he could miss the season again which is a big shame as he is lightly raced and still very talented.

So now I come to the crop of second season Chasers. It’s a pity O’Faoilains Boy is out for the season as we’ve had the last two RSA winners go on to win the Gold Cup and when you add in Long Run who came 3rd in the race. We see the return to a normal post Kauto and Denman era that the RSA is a superb trial, 4/7 winners have come from the race. Which brings me to a horse I for one reason or another have not taken too. Smad Place, and given the troubles at Kings yard last season his close 2nd is a really excellent result. He is certainly one who can progress and it will be interesting how he gets on in the Hennessy as I think the extra distance will be an asset to a strong stayer like him.

Also Morning Assembly might be a bit forgotten, he was clearly outpaced at a crucial point in the RSA. But such things have happened to Lord Windermere and Synchronised in their Gold Cup wins, the added distance, more grueling pace and stiffer course will play to his strenghts. As will any softer ground, you couldn’t have had quicker ground in March than we got at Cheltenham last season.

Now I have to say as much as I like Holywell, favourite for the Gold Cup is frankly comical. He won a what race at Aintree? Don Cossack was beaten much further at Punchestown. O’Faoilains Boy was totally over the top in the race too. So we base it off his – as obvious as the nose on your face – over a stone in hand handicap win at Cheltenham? Very good horse as he is lets see how he does this season before making him favourite.

Jonjo knows his Gold Cup hope is Taquin Du Seuil, very good performance in winning the JLT Novice chase in holding off Uxizandre much to my disgust that AP was allowed to switch off his bosses horse. He looked like a quality horse in that race and he can progress – if he stays – to be a contender for the Gold Cup. I personally think stepping up in trip will see improvement from him. He looks a big galloper and think he’d love the Hennessy Gold Cup, though might have too much weight for that unless Bobs Worth runs.

The horse I’ve already gone in heavy on for this race is Champagne Fever. He’s bred to stay (sire had Irish National 2nd) and he loves Cheltenham. How he lost the Arkle I’ll never know, just one of those things and it was rather gutwrenching to be honest. Mullins has said they are now switching tactics on him, to front run opponents into the ground in G1 staying chases you need to be Denman or Kauto Star do it consistently. The change in tactics is a good idea. Very talented horse this and if he stays he’s the favourite in my book. Proper top class animal, but he is a bit patchy in his consistency, but he does save his best for Cheltenham.

But it’s almost impossible to hide the excitement and regard Mullins and especially Ricci hold Djakadam. Last season Ricci said how Vautour was his most exciting horse prior to Cheltenham and he was proved very much right. I like his opinions of his horses. Already being talked about as a possible Gold Cup horse this season he’d be aiming to emulate Long Run to win it as 6yo. Maybe too much is expected of the horse this season and maybe a Ryanair stepping stone to Gold Cup when he is 7yo might be the way they go.

Don Cossack looks like he’s really grown up and seems that he likes good ground based on a good win at Punchestown. I do wonder if he had a breathing OP in the summer as he was without his tongue tie this season, he wore for his 3 starts in the spring. I’m inclined to forgive his runs in the spring and give him an honest reassesment this season. I think he’s a quality horse, but Elliott has said himself he believes him below Grade 1 class and may campaign him over shorter than 3m this season. Ryanair horse maybe?

There are a few others like Dynaste, Carlingford Lough etc.. who are also in the Gold Cup picture. I really don’t think Dynaste will stay the Gold Cup trip tbh and nor does Pipe and I think Carlingford Lough is short of the class required despite two Grade 1 wins last season. I don’t see the progression, he had the advantage of being very experienced for a Novice last term.

Looking through the odds on offer the two that stand out as some antepost value at this stage are Taquin Du Seuil, who is a big price at 25/1 imo. Also 40/1 about Djakadam is worth a go too given how highly he is rated and how much the summer will have helped him mature and grow. I also think 20/1 Smad Place not bad value but really don’t feel he’s good enough, I’m just not warming to him yet. I think he is certainly shortlist material for the Hennessy though. While Cue Card post wind op has to be back on the Radar at 14/1.

The thing to do with the Cheltenham races is build a book, nobody can really know who is going to win come March but you just need to back horses you think can win and who are some value to be backed at this stage.

http://jumpsadviser.com/gold-cup/
@cvbyrne

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
Page 1 of 16  •  Previous 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | ... | 16 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 614
By:
saxon farm
When: 23 Oct 14 13:29
CV
Thanks, an excellent write up.
By:
The Sawyer
When: 23 Oct 14 13:41
nice summary cvb
By:
Desmond Orchard
When: 23 Oct 14 15:27
Great stuff CV, then I would say that as I pretty much agree with all of the above. My starting point with the CGC is to put a line through any horse that has run in it before. It's a gruelling test in which, imo, horses leave a lot behind and/or remember it the next time. You wouldn't have ruled out many winners adopting this approach over the last 20 years.
I have two in my book already Cue Card would be my biggest winner and a small interest in TDS. I'll be looking to add Champagne Fever at a nice price after he disappoints a few times in the lead up.
By:
Howdi
When: 23 Oct 14 17:00
good work pal, reading this i can't recall a more open gold cup, in my years.
By:
CVByrne
When: 23 Oct 14 17:49
Cheers guys, Yes very much an open gold cup isn't it. Which adds to how interesting it is. Makes up for how boring the Champion Hurdle division is.
By:
wellchief
When: 23 Oct 14 18:38
Good work guys.

Aside from Conti, I'll definitely be siding with the second season novices.

I think Smad Place is cracking value at 20's.  As you say, the King yard was under a massive cloud last year, and going into the RSA, he was probably only fifth or sixth on my list, so he ran much better than I expected him to.  Despite not winning at the Festival, he has a fantastic record there, so he is high on my list.

Conti's run last year was a weird one.  I had him and Cue Card as miles ahead of anything in England last year, and I'm prepared to give him anther go.  He has the master trainer for staying chasers, and if we have an on song Cue Card this year, I think we're in for some fantastic battles between those two.

I personally don't think Sir Des Champs stays well enough to win a Gold Cup, and I've never been able to work out Boston Bob.  Sometimes I think he is an out and out 3 miler, but he has put in some great runs at 2.5 - I could never back him in any race with any degree of confidence, because you just don't know which horse will turn up.

I've mentioned on another thread that Kicking King and War of Attrition went straight from the Arkle to Gold Cup success, so it is possible for Champagne Fever to emulate them.  However, I think Champagne Fever's odds are very skinny at the moment, when so far, he has only won one beginners chase and that's it.

One not really mentioned by anyone yet is Ma Filleule.  Only beaten less than 2 lengths by Holywell when rated 2lbs lower at the Festival and hosed up after at Aintree.  She is now rated 163, the same as Holywell, and considering they were quite closely matched in the William Hill, and then both won next time up, she doesn't look too bad at more than twice the price of Holywell.

All in all, very wide open, but my choice at the moment would be from Smad Place, Conti and Ma Filleule.
By:
CVByrne
When: 23 Oct 14 19:07
Agree that if there was one horse to give a chance to from last seasons race it;d be Conti. I personally don't rate Holywell's G1 Aintree win. That race has never thrown up a Gold Cup winner and very few RSA horses run anywhere near their form in that. As such we've just got handicapping form for Holywell & Ma Filleule. I'll need to see more from them to put them in the frame.

Champagne Fever, Djakadam, Cue Card, Tquin Du Seuil are the 4 high on my list then maybe Boston Bob, Smad Place & Morning Assembly.
By:
PedroPete12
When: 23 Oct 14 19:10
Fantastic post CV, personally I fancy Cue Card but I do have the feeling that the 2014 RSA will prove to be a strong renewal and a good line of form to follow, could be worth getting a couple of them onside at good prices
By:
Howdi
When: 23 Oct 14 20:29
one at a price would be Ma Filleule any improvement and she is bang there
By:
Howdi
When: 23 Oct 14 20:29
lol pete - i'm no fan of the rsa last year but i have been wrong before Plain
By:
HaylingBilly
When: 23 Oct 14 22:26
Smad Place all the way for me. Perfect modern profile for Gold Cup. Hennessy and Gold Cup double. All in.
By:
Howdi
When: 23 Oct 14 22:29
wave that tenner goodbye billy Plain
By:
HaylingBilly
When: 23 Oct 14 22:42
Tenner……..you Wild Child. Fiver EW topsville. BlushBlushBlush
By:
buddeliea
When: 24 Oct 14 17:23
Nice write up CV,and Djakadam is a horse I was quiet taken with last season.
Taken some 40's.
By:
Howdi
When: 24 Oct 14 17:37
Ive taken some 50s Plain
By:
buddeliea
When: 25 Oct 14 07:23
smart @rse

Laugh
By:
Howdi
When: 25 Oct 14 10:10
^^^ hi mate , you well?
By:
buddeliea
When: 25 Oct 14 12:25
Very well thank you my friend,trust you are well mate?
By:
Howdi
When: 25 Oct 14 12:41
yes likewise pal. Good to see you back in here,
By:
Harvester
When: 25 Oct 14 23:59
if he went well in KG, any chance Simonsig might end up in GC (especially if BW is in decline)??
By:
buddeliea
When: 26 Oct 14 08:06
Every chance I would have thought,if hes thought of as a KG horse then hes likely to be thought of as a GC horse.
He has to come back from injury though and then prove he stays well enough.
No doubt hes a class act,but 3m2f??
By:
Howdi
When: 26 Oct 14 08:10
Simonsig is one to watch I can see him in the Champion chase if Sprinter sacre doesn't comeback well.
By:
buddeliea
When: 26 Oct 14 08:38
Yep mate, that would be more his race imo,or maybe the Ryanair??
It really all depends on how he stays when upped in trip I guess.
By:
Howdi
When: 27 Oct 14 12:37
his arkle win though doesnt look much on paper now mind.
By:
Howdi
When: 27 Oct 14 16:25
Having looked at the odds today (whilst working from home) the one i think is over priced, (by no means saying he will win!) is Morning Assembly at 50-1 on here.

- RSA form
- Staying on at the end.
- One has already dropped out of the race (O.Boy)
- Decent enough form for his first season in Ireland although admitidly they were all beating each other over there last season.

50-1 by no means a bad priuce.


-
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 31 Oct 14 10:23
excellent write up and in the champ hurdle thread as well cv good stuff .  am interested in p.hobbs  fingal bay  at a "price "who could emerge into a grade 1 chaser he was 4lengths behind dynaste as novice  giving that horse 5 lb ,and won the pertemps final at the festival in march and hobbs has said he is being aimed at the hennesey in November ,he also said he has been jumping fences at home and you would  think he has been jumping them all his life or words to that effect he should be on a decent  mark for the hennesey and a win would see his price tumble  . no telling what will happen but one who could progress and no surprise if he made up into a grade 1 chaser this season and at 33s books and bigger to buttons on here he looks too big a price to me ! and it wont cost me a lot to find out at those odds . could be one to have on your side in building a book
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 31 Oct 14 12:16
shouldn't be forgotten that fingal bay beat simonsig 2 and 3/4 lengths at sandown as a novice ^^^^^^^ not too shabby hurdling form if he can translate that to fences , had time off for a tendon injury and could have been feeling this or some other issue  when not setting the world alight in his novice chase days still has an impressive wins to runs ratio
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 31 Oct 14 12:17
beat simonsig at sandown in  a novice hurdle ^^^^^^^^^^^^^
By:
Howdi
When: 31 Oct 14 12:18
ill put one up as an outsider LE BEC went 9/4 ish (in running) in RSA before he fell.
By:
Howdi
When: 31 Oct 14 12:21
final nr fav for hennessey
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 31 Oct 14 13:26
this one a bit more speculative but is a "price" the jonjo yard has a few high profile and more obvious contenders for the blue riband in holywell and tarquin de suel ,but one who could emerge into a gold cup horse and ticks a good few boxed in my book is  shuthefrontdoor ,stays well, jumped well when winning over 3m 6  at fairyhouse and has room for plenty of improvement !
could be that he will be campaigned over hurdles and  end up in the national imobut the same connections won the gold cup with a similar type in synchronised and if he went on improving hey may be tempted to take in the gold cup in which case  a big price 90s on here may be worth  worth chancing , I disregard his  earlier novice  chase campaign where he was a little disappointing as this mob clearly had bigger things on their mind and so it proved at fairyhouse where he put handicappers to the sword ,trained by one of the best trainers of a staying chaser in the land ,ticks a few boxes and  a few quid thrown at him at big odds could pay dividends ............good luck all 1
By:
Howdi
When: 31 Oct 14 13:28
^^^ Croosed my mind esp . bearing in mind recent winners!
By:
wellchief
When: 31 Oct 14 16:18
Hoping for a good run from Ma Filleule tomorrow as I've had a little bit for the KG and GC, so we'll see if she is a proper G1 horse.
By:
shockster
When: 31 Oct 14 20:26
I've always liked 2nd season chasers for The Gold Cup and I quite like the chances of Smad Place and Le Bec mentioned earlier in the thread . With those in mind I have taken huge prices about Sam Winner. Admittedly only 5th in the RSA but not beaten far 8l.  Previously though had beaten Le Bec 4l over 3 1/4miles at Chelt when receiving 8lb and 2nd 2l behind Smad Place at Newbury but giving 3lb.  Now he's no certainty that's for sure but at the prices worth a dabble IMO.  Also had a few quid on Argocat at over 300 simply on his Aintree Bowl run btn 1 1/2 and the same by S.Conti and Dynaste off levels.  He's only 6 and any improvement to 7, well who knows.
By:
Howdi
When: 01 Nov 14 00:39
Much chance of me carrying John McCruick on my back winning the Gold Cup than Samuel Winner
By:
shockster
When: 01 Nov 14 10:50
It's just about price differentials to me and they're too big about those 2 against performances concerning much shorter priced horses.  It's just how I look at it.
By:
The_LUFCwaffe
When: 01 Nov 14 12:44
I quite fancy Rajdhani Express having a crack at this.

owned by Waley-Cohen (chairman of the course)
ridden by Waley-Cohen (Long Run not targeted at the race)
trained by NH. Bobs Worth, Simonsig, Ma Filleule? one on the wane, one coming back from injury, and the latter I feel isn't going to make it at this level.

Henderson has already mentioned a couple of times at the end of the summer that he expects improvement when Rajdhani Express steps up to 3 miles. So do I.

RE is entered in the Paddy Power Chase. He doesn't stand a chance in that. So why is he entered again after flopping last year? Interestingly Long Run also took in the same race before winning the King George and then the Gold Cup the same season. RE skipped most of the winter last year apparently waiting for good ground, so was it a lack of confidence that stopped NH and the Waley-Cohen's from going for the bigger spring prizes or have they been giving RE time to develop.

RE was place in the Ryanair so is clearly a decent enough horse. His stamina profile though is similar to that of Long Run. Both are stayers, so keeping RE to 2m 4f will just lead to defeat after defeat. A step up in distance will place him against horses of similar staying characteristics...expect that they're currently trading at
By:
The_LUFCwaffe
When: 01 Nov 14 12:49
hmm...truncated. Betfair clearly didn't appreciate something I'd written.

anyway. I fancy Rajdhani Express at a very decent price at the moment, due to no direction being given on the horses season targets. That should change, and the price will be adjusted accordingly when it becomes clear that the only viable option is the Gold Cup and not the Ryanair. The horse needs a staying test.


Double Ross will be the other springer in the market for me. I expect him to run with credit today in the Charlie Hall.
By:
Giddy
When: 01 Nov 14 13:34
Great write up CV. Totally agree with you re Boston Bob. Hoping his target is the Gold Cup but you never know with Mullins
Today will tell us a lot more
Page 1 of 16  •  Previous 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | ... | 16 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
‹ back to topics
www.betfair.com