Cheltenham Festival
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next years renewal look a more open affair than in recent running ,what with the doubts surrounding big bucks who will be an 11 yo coming back from injury ,if any horse can do it he can ,but at around 4-5s he is not for me , top staying novice at fishers cross i very prominent in the betting and rightly so he has a very sexy profile with just the one defeat over a trip too short, at around 4/1 he will attract plenty of interest but he needs plenty of cut and there must be a doubt about him even lining up if the ground is on the good side ,current champ solwhit ticks a lot of boxes and around at around 10s must be on the shortlist and an each way bet could pay dividends . zarkandar is also among the favs but although undoubtedley highly talented has to prove he gets the trip .
one who seems to have been much overlooked probably because he does not seem to have the wow factor or hype is alan kings medinas a real grinder who dosent win his races on the bridal but is a tough and consistent battler who won the coral cup at the festival ,one of the seasons most competitive staying handicaps carrying 11-10....... YES 11 STONE 10 POUNDS he powered up the hill and battled on well winning by 2 lengths beating some usefull handicappers into the bargain,
officially rated 154 after that run (at fishers cross officially rated 152 after his albert bartlett win ! afc 4/1 medinas 100/1 you do the meths, it aint rocket salad where the value could lie imo) . medinas was beaten just over 10 lengths by at fishers and the new one at cheptow in very heavy ground but that was right up afc street in conditions the curtis horse relishes , the world hurdle trip on good racing ground could see a different story , put it this way if this horse continues improving then he is way over priced at around 100 on here (was 140s earlier in the week ,no apoligies for snapping that up ) alan king has hinted that he could go novice chasing this season ,that may be the case ,but kingy has a penchant for this race and knows what it take to win it having saddled anzum and my way de solzen to victory in the past .
he obviously needs to keep improving to trouble the likes of solwhit and co, but the gap from handicapper to graded is not insurmountable and come march the race could less quality than expected , he needs to put an aintree run where he was pulled up behind solwhit behind him but he had a busy season and may have been over the top ( add the fact that the stable had a wretched season prior to the festival,) and the flat track may not have played to his strengths, whatever the reason he has proved he can do it at the festival and over a similar trip and he can battle up the hill and is one to have on your side when the going get tough , if he goes novice chasing then so be it i have done my dough but at the prices the chance is worth taking imo,you only have to lay out peanuts to win gold nuggets ..........selection world hurdle medinas each way around 100s on here ,or best price with the books . good luck .
one who seems to have been much overlooked probably because he does not seem to have the wow factor or hype is alan kings medinas a real grinder who dosent win his races on the bridal but is a tough and consistent battler who won the coral cup at the festival ,one of the seasons most competitive staying handicaps carrying 11-10....... YES 11 STONE 10 POUNDS he powered up the hill and battled on well winning by 2 lengths beating some usefull handicappers into the bargain,
officially rated 154 after that run (at fishers cross officially rated 152 after his albert bartlett win ! afc 4/1 medinas 100/1 you do the meths, it aint rocket salad where the value could lie imo) . medinas was beaten just over 10 lengths by at fishers and the new one at cheptow in very heavy ground but that was right up afc street in conditions the curtis horse relishes , the world hurdle trip on good racing ground could see a different story , put it this way if this horse continues improving then he is way over priced at around 100 on here (was 140s earlier in the week ,no apoligies for snapping that up ) alan king has hinted that he could go novice chasing this season ,that may be the case ,but kingy has a penchant for this race and knows what it take to win it having saddled anzum and my way de solzen to victory in the past .
he obviously needs to keep improving to trouble the likes of solwhit and co, but the gap from handicapper to graded is not insurmountable and come march the race could less quality than expected , he needs to put an aintree run where he was pulled up behind solwhit behind him but he had a busy season and may have been over the top ( add the fact that the stable had a wretched season prior to the festival,) and the flat track may not have played to his strengths, whatever the reason he has proved he can do it at the festival and over a similar trip and he can battle up the hill and is one to have on your side when the going get tough , if he goes novice chasing then so be it i have done my dough but at the prices the chance is worth taking imo,you only have to lay out peanuts to win gold nuggets ..........selection world hurdle medinas each way around 100s on here ,or best price with the books . good luck .
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if that wins i'll give you the money myself
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Good luck Foyles - I like the bit about "you do the METHS" - trying to steer clear at the mo thanks
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 sawyer!good luck . |
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I tried the meths and still couldn't bring myself to back it.
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yeah gutfeeling ,medinas does look a bit of a longhot at fisrt glance but looking at the top of the market a fair few of these may not be in the race come march ,big bucks gotta be a doubt ,at fishers cross needs cut to be seen at his best ,good going he may not run ,zarkandar not proven at the trip yet ,quevega will surely run in the mares,the new one champion hurdle bound ,cuts the field down significantly ,and thi fella ha done it over c&d and could find further improvement this season , as said before could go chasing but he is only mall and king will have one eye on the big bucks situation ,if bb i not the force of old then it wide open imo .good luck ,.......am finished with the meths ,i find aftershave much more to my liking ! does not taste too clever but gets ya pished and your breath smells much sweeter ,...onwards and upwards !
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howdy thanks for the kind offer ! but if this wins i wont need your money
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Best of luck Foyles and i do like your thinking as could be a lovely trade if he goes well early season.
I've took some buttons on Holywell myself at 260.0 as his Pertemps win and Aintree 2nd were good enough to throw him into the mix for the WH if he stays hurdling. |
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didnt mention the frenchy gemix looks very usefull and is probably the best of the french staying hurdlers beat solwhit by 8 lenght in a valuable staying hurdle in heavy going at autieul and currently trading around 16s on here ,looks like the softer the better for him to show his best and may also not even line up if the going is on the good side .
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the coral cup is of course over 2.5 miles not 3 ,my mistake and apologies !
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The Sawyer 28 Sep 13 17:01
Good luck Foyles - I like the bit about "you do the METHS" - trying to steer clear at the mo thanks That was good  |
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gutfeeling 28 Sep 13 19:40
I tried the meths and still couldn't bring myself to back it. That was even better  |
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Nicholls also plans to send Tidal Bay to Yorkshire to defend his crown in the £36,500 Grade Two bet365 Hurdle over three miles and a furlong. The 12-year-old scored impressively last year and went on to land a top-class renewal of the Grade One Lexus Chase at Leopardstown in late December. He has not been seen since due to a stress fracture of the lower cannon bone on his right hind leg.
Nicholls added: "Tidal Bay is in good form and runs in the bet365 Hurdle. He has come back from his injury well and I am very happy with him. "I am going to get Wetherby out the way first and then make a plan after that." |
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Good to see the old boy back.
My first ever Cheltenham was his Arkle win, and despite him making me tear my hear out at times, he really is a character and NH racing would be worse without him. |
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He was only a character when trained by HJO. Completley consistent since being with PFN.
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yep makes you wonder what the horse would have achieved if he had been sent to pumpkin a few seasons earlier!
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not a bad run from medinas ! and welldone to the old warrior tidal bay
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PFN says Big Bucks is on course for a run end of January (presume the Cleeve Hurdle) and then all being well onto the World Hurdle. Was on RUK Trainer stable tour.
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Still very happy with the 4/1 bucks and will keep ploughing my furrow each week
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Hope Big Bucks aint hurt himself laughing
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What,laughing at a bad mistake??
Anyway,Last years winner was always gonna be Big Bucks main threat for me.Or should I say BB is Solwhits main threat. |
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think chelt and a bigger field will suit medinas a lot better and if he lines up he could run into a place ,so happy with it !
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Jumpin was horrid, head carriage was ?? And dont think he was gettin past Halo mistake or no mistake
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Geraghty looked like he thought he was going to fall off at every hurdle. When he did commit the horse made a horlicks of it. How did it beat The New One?
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well we will never know,but that was a race stopper for sure.
His supporters will look forward to his next race. Im on Halo at stupid prices on here so that was nice to see from him today. |
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heavy ground and he jumped better
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Looked completely ill at ease on the ground for me, would need to be soft at the festival if he is to be a player.
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I think you're right about the ground. Looking at the replay it made me think something was hurting him and maybe he gets away with it on soft. Hate to see horses skewing like that in mid-air.
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Could well be right lads,although at Aintree the ground weren't too bad.
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Think Autocue is spot on. Never looked comfortable and hope they don't rush him back something is hurting him.
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rebbeca curtis said pre season that the horse wants ground softer the better and would not worry about missing the world hurdle if the going was not soft enough or words to that effect ,and the way he looked to be hating the ground today not difficult to see why .
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glad i aint backed the horse if that's what she said.
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Peculiar statement. Wouldn't take a chance on the big one but was happy to run on goodish ground yesterday.
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Eeternaloptimist, the official going according to RP was soft (good to soft) in places so if it was goodish perhaps the Clerk should be blamed. Just found an article where she says "He doesn't need soft ground, but given his well-documented problems - he's always had little niggles and used to struggle with his jumping - it's always got to be on the soft side of good."
I think that supports what I said after watching the replay yesterday. |
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Not wishing this to sound like a smart alec comment but it's the trainers job to know the going before racing rather than excusing poor performances afterwards. Official goings are never to be trusted. The meeting probably stared on softish going but with drying conditions throughout the course walk on Saturday should have been crucial. The times of the races suggest goodish ground and to the naked eye that seems to be how it was panning out with good ground horses doing well and mudlarks not so well.
We may not agree about all that but what seems incontrovertible is that the horse did all his running on genuine soft ground last season (even at Aintree despite the official going). It was far far quicker than anything he encountered last season and it was his first run back of the campaign and first in open company. |
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Well, a lot of last season's form isn't translating to this term that's for sure (AFC and Bobs Worth come immediately to mind) and a lot of these upsets are likely due to the different ground conditions.
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any news of afc after his run yesterday ? think he will be kept to very soft ground now ,i know he won at aintree on good to soft ,but i think he won that in spite of the ground, of course may have not been the ground at all ,may have been something physical amiss ,think he would have struggled to beat the winner if he had jumped the 2nd last cleanly celestial halo goes well fresh and is still a very usefull performer . credible contenders to big bucks crown are dissolving faster than a politicians promise !
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umm foyles,its Solwhits crown mate.
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apologies ffs completly overlooked solwhit . age catching up with big bucks solwhit and me !
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Tell me I'm missing something with the Handicapper. Below is his official reasoning for putting At Fishers Cross up 4lb.
Race standards suggest somewhere in the region of the mid 160s for the winner so Celestial Halo is now up 4lb to 165, a mark he won a handicap off back in 2009, and the same as Solwhit. At Fishers Cross was in receipt of 4lb on Saturday so his mark is also up 4lb to 161 with the promise of more to come, especially if his jumping becomes more fluent. What don't I get here? Is it me? |