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Big Bucks John
17 Mar 13 14:53
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Date Joined: 11 Mar 08
| Topic/replies: 1,323 | Blogger: Big Bucks John's blog
What race would you be aiming him for next season?

I assumed he would be taking the world hurdle route but just read that NTD is thinking about the champion hurdle which surprised me?
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Report Mr Eboue March 17, 2013 1:57 PM GMT
Champion is the plan.
Report alleged22 March 17, 2013 2:01 PM GMT
he,s got too many gears for a world hurdle....
Report Brooksielad March 17, 2013 2:03 PM GMT
ch then if failing chasing id of thought
Report booster March 17, 2013 2:09 PM GMT
Champion Hurdle. The Neptune, in all its previous guises, has always been a decent trial.
Report Brooksielad March 17, 2013 2:22 PM GMT
Hurricane Fly, My Tent Or Yours, The New One, Our Conor. Hope they all stay sound until next March :)
Report alleged22 March 17, 2013 2:31 PM GMT
MTOY and TNO look mighty promising for next year, not convinced with OC yet, he got his ground and beat a moderate bunch very easily, much too early to pass judgement though and id like to see how he perfoms against older more experiencedd rivals before coming to any conclusions...
Report seaserpent March 17, 2013 6:08 PM GMT
Been watching the races from last week again this afternoon, champion hurdle has to be the plan given the blistering turn of foot he showed on the run to the last, neptune in recent years has turned out to be a descent trial for the following years champion. If I was to have a bet ante post for the champion hurdle at this moment I would definitly have it on The New One, particulary given Hurricane Flys age and also Our Connor's at the opposite end of the age scale and I am not so sure whether the triumph horses were as good as people made out beforehand, wheras I do think that the Neptune field had a lot of strength in depth
Report bluebirdfan March 17, 2013 7:29 PM GMT
Won a decent Neptune, the Neptune has been a good guide to the Champion Hurdle
Report judorick March 18, 2013 5:03 PM GMT
will be a major ante post bet for me
Report kavvie March 18, 2013 6:58 PM GMT
amazing really how the neptune is a good ch hurd trial.one wud imagine a horse that stays 2m5 might want further the foll year but it seems not to be the case.i think our conor is the one they all have to beat.time was quicker than the county hurdle and winner of that ted veale carried 8lb less than our conor.
Report harry callaghan March 18, 2013 7:33 PM GMT
hate to say this as really like this horse, the neptune for me was an unsatisfactory affair...from an early stage this was run at a dawdle and the pace really suited the winner. for me I felt the second and third would want at least this trip off a true gallop to be seen to best affect...

the new one does look a proper horse but the form has to downgraded with the favourite a huge disappointment and tequin de soul clearly inconvenienced by good ground

the winner is clearly a very good horse... the form has to go down as unreliable for the time being, given the pace in the race and this was an unsatisfactory result... the new one could do no more than win but how slow are the horses he beat??

he rates a top class prospect but i wouldn't be so keen to step in and take a price for the champ hurdle if this is the race you are judging him on
Report judorick March 18, 2013 8:00 PM GMT
there were some superb sectionals Harry, come up the hill faster than anything else all week and the division looks very weak to me
Report Meat Loaf March 18, 2013 9:18 PM GMT
They should send The New One chasing - and potentially aim it at the Gold Cup next year.

Twiston-Davies did a similar thing with Fundamentalist and then got injured a few weeks before Cheltenham.
Report judorick March 18, 2013 10:00 PM GMT
he's only 5 Meat Loaf, he will stay hurdling then go chasing as a seven year old in 2015 with the Arkle as his target then the Gold Cup as an 8yo in 2016
Report duffy March 19, 2013 10:53 AM GMT
I'd be a big fan of TNO but not for being aimed at a CH for me, he ran away from PA and RTW alright but they strike me as it turns out to be staying chasers in the fullness of time I ain't to sure how it suggests that he'll be able to cope with the real speed types over 2 miles, yes, he'll stay on well at the end of 2 miles but the damage could be done by then.
Report RyanWe March 19, 2013 1:55 PM GMT
TOPSPEED guru Dave Edwards believes The New One could be a serious contender for next season's Champion Hurdle after analysing his performance at Cheltenham. 

While Hurricane Fly's effort to regain his Champion Hurdle crown was rightly lauded, The New One could prove to be stern competition after posting a superb time when winning the Neptune.

Edwards said: "The Neptune has proved an excellent pointer to the following year's Champion and The New One set an early marker for next season's hurdling crown.

"The track layout was identical both days and the splits reveal Nigel Twiston-Davies's rising star came from the second last in 38.53s against 43.13s clocked by Hurricane Fly a day earlier, a significant margin.

"Of all the hurdle races on the Old course he motored up the run in at 32.1mph, the pick of the week. In contrast Champion Hurdle winner Hurricane Fly laboured at 27.4mph, the slowest."


Can't really compare any of the horses fairly, but it's still good to know that TNO does possess a good top speed.
Report The Sawyer March 19, 2013 2:14 PM GMT
That makes Medinas the second coming Ryan.

The Coral Cup was run 5.5 secs faster than the Neptune and I make his time from the second last around 0.75 of a second slower that TNO.

And Medinas carried more weight.

"After posting a superb time" what is the RP on about Shocked
Report RyanWe March 19, 2013 2:28 PM GMT
Medinas for the Champion Hurdle then Laugh
Report RyanWe March 19, 2013 2:31 PM GMT
I'm just surprised that something didn't go quicker in the Neptune in the first place - although it's still hard to envisage the result being any different with the way TNO won.
Report The Sawyer March 19, 2013 2:59 PM GMT
Ryan

Yes it was a farce of a race. Shame really as it doesn't tell us too much about the others in the Neptune, except that they the next five home are all faster than Hurricane Fly Mischief The RP - reporting at its best.

I think there will be some winners coming from the Coral Cup. Aintree here we come.
Report Mr Eboue March 20, 2013 10:08 AM GMT
The prolific five-year-old showed a smart shift of year in last Wednesday's Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle to defeat a strong field by upwards of four lengths.

Next up for The New One is a possible step up to two and a half miles at Aintree next month.

Fantastic article from sportinglife.

Do they realise he ran over 2m5f last week ffs?
Report bluebirdfan March 20, 2013 10:36 AM GMT
Does MTOY stay over hurdles do we know?
Report sintonian March 20, 2013 5:36 PM GMT
Probably given Darlan is not here and Binocular is finished at the highest level.
Report duffy March 20, 2013 9:29 PM GMT
MTOY'S wouldn't be a typical horse I'd be on the side of usually but strangely enough after last weeks apparent failure, he's the one I am currently most interested in for next year.
Report bluebirdfan March 21, 2013 9:55 AM GMT
Me too; I was dead against him in the Supreme but if he stays hurdling I'll be strong on him for the CH
Report cyclops March 21, 2013 10:10 AM GMT
Interesting points, The Sawyer. You really do have to look at NH times with great suspicion; there are so many factors to weigh up. They showed, for example, on a split screen, the Supreme and the Champion being run simultaneously. Amazing how the Champion saw such a brutal pace injection mid-race, with the result that, yes, HF's finish was in slow motion, compared to other races. However, to then make comparisons with The New One's finish seems ridiculous. As The Sawyer says, its all very well comparing the winners but, if you really believe that the times are that significant, you also have to factor in the placed horses and put them on a pedestal they don't deserve.
Report duffy March 21, 2013 11:30 AM GMT
TNO is obviously, but for me there is an over-reaction to him in relation to his suitability for a CH, he ran away from budding staying chasers last week, it's a world away from stepping back to take on the likes of OC, HF, MTOY'S etc....I know horses have done it in the past, the style of his victory was impressive but like I said , he was up against staying soft ground chasers in the making, it doesn't entitle him to be 3rd fav. for the hurdling speed championship IMO.
Report duffy March 21, 2013 11:31 AM GMT
obviously a good horse...obviously! that should readPlain
Report Arklearkle March 21, 2013 4:42 PM GMT
Following NH times blindly is a short cut to the poor-house. In 2011 Grands Crus Feltham time was better than Kautos King George. It was high-lighted at that time but it was hardly ever mentioned that the race was on for a number of seconds before the King George field got to the starting line. Very often the Supreme is faster than the Champion hurdle but very few of its winners ever win the Champion - about two in the last fifty or more years.
Report cyclops March 22, 2013 1:06 PM GMT
Another good point Arklearkle. Furthermore, I've just checked and the speed rating on the RP site gives a speed figure of 135 for Hurricane Fly and just 110 for The New One. No wonder The New One could sprint up the hill on the back of a race so slowly run. He wasnt so quick at the trials meeting.
Report alleged22 March 22, 2013 2:07 PM GMT
bare in mind it was real heavy at the trial meeting, he still showed a smart turn of foot but was simply out stayed in the heavy ground, also bare in mind he had only run 2 weeks earlier and was only running to gain more experience, one final point the neptune is 5 furlongs (1000 metres) further than the CH...
Report rogerthebutler March 22, 2013 3:48 PM GMT
I base a lot of my punting around speed figures, precisely because other punters don't or becuase they get them wrong (IMO).

There's two really interesting articles by Dave Edwards (topspeed) and Nick Mordin in this weeks 'Weekender' highlighting that sectional times were available at Cheltenham and how useful these are since they help see beyond raw race times (how the hell can you apply a meaningful speed figure to the World Hurdle where they stood around for five seconds before setting off at a hack canter?)
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